[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,

Long time reader of and part time contributor to the thread and long BB.

Would appreciate your view on something, however, before that I'd just like to thank you for the all the analysis you provide us with!

With regards to BBRY, just wondering whether we're being set up by shorts here to take out the 8 month up trend line and inflict some major technical damage on the stock. I recall they tried this once before, fairly recently actually (unsuccessfully) and am wary that having pushed us down to the uptrend line we're now going to hear from our favorite shorts (Cannacord, etc) to, as I mentioned above, cause technical damage to the stock. What do you think of this scenario and whether it's likely or not?

Thanks

Aham1984!

Welcome to the board! The 8-month uptrend line has actually changed on a couple of occasions, this chart shows you where we have come from in the past 4 months:



The reason why this "8-month" uptrend is where it is today, is because of the company! The company delays a product launch i.e., Z10 in the US, and we have to shift the borders again. This is common with mid-size stocks that are easily influenced. The main thing that stops a bear raid is earnings, we got the first earth shattering number during the Q4 report and we are guided to flat earnings for Q1 but it is likely that we will turn another profit this quarter ending early June. It is difficult to drag a stock down when earnings are coming back. You will also notice that our overhead resistance has been flattening out too. We now have rallies that are close to recent highs and shallow sell-offs. This latest sell-off is only down to $ 14.60/shr versus the last one which took us down to $ 13.10/shr.

This chart shows you that the curve is pointing up here:



The bears really don't have any strength today, they can barely drive the stock down even when longs step aside and wait for actual sales numbers. We will find out who has the power within the next 3 weeks as this existing chart needs to change. It is possible that the 2 week Q10 USA launch delay will move the downtrend line once again. The uptrend line is likely to stay intact this time around. If you look at the first chart we could be creating our 5th downtrend line to compensate for that phone delay. The next benchmark could be the need to wait until Q1 earnings come out and so on. The lines do move here until we get the seminal event that drives the stock.

I personally think that a favorable DoD announcement is one of those drivers along with unit sales. Hate to spoil the party but those lines do move! The current uptrend line looks extremely powerful and I always buy stock on that line. As I mentioned in a post the other day, we are climbing at a rate of $ 1.10/shr per month projecting $ 8.00/shr more by the end of this year. My family needs that money! Kidding, but a $ 1.10/shr is a great return on your investment. GL

[Charles Martin1]

I'm sure you're aware Charles, but for others,
"BlackBerry Subscriber" and "BBM Subscribers" are two different things.

You can be a "BlackBerry" sub without being a "BBM" sub.
The BBM numbers have always been lower than the total subs at ER. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Edit, Once again I'm late replying. Sometimes I just like to see my picture in the forum anyway

LOL...no doubt it's no news for us but to the ignorant investor they may shat themselves upon seeing this kind of thing and run for the doors.

[Charles Martin1]

Would not surprise me because they already have a rebate for jobs program in place with BB. I called my contact and left a voice mail. Will wait to hear.

Local store tells me Provincial employees have been in getting Z10s and Q10s lately.

Bell and the Province have been re-negotiating their contract as their existing one expired end of April.

Charles1 may have some input as he is a bluenoser too.

Yeah. It would make sense. they all have the BBs, plus the provincial economic development agency here invested $10 million into BBRY's local operations last fall.

[Bilaal]

It was all good in the pre market....and then the market opened...

[take99]

Why a Blackberry Is Better Than an iPhone - CIO.com

[Bugmapper]

Would not surprise me because they already have a rebate for jobs program in place with BB. I called my contact and left a voice mail. Will wait to hear.

Local store tells me Provincial employees have been in getting Z10s and Q10s lately.

Bell and the Province have been re-negotiating their contract as their existing one expired end of April.

Charles1 may have some input as he is a bluenoser too.

FYI... federal employees only have access to Bolds and Curves at this moment.

[cjcampbell]

That was an interesting start to the day

[OMGitworks]

Know someone that drove them all his life. Then he bought a Lexus. His conclusion is that they are the same with a much different price tag.

Posted via CB10

I'd say the Lexus cares most about the cushiness of the car. BMW truly only cares about making the ultimate driving machine with some luxury thrown in, and MB tries to strike the balance somewhere in between. My current BMW 5 series is a fun car to drive and is very nice, but I have previously had MB's and a Lexus and they were more refined inside. My personal rating would be BMW, MB then Lexus, but each has its + and -. None are cheap.

[Bugmapper]

Just experienced a small earthquake in N. Ontario. Anybody in Ottawa area confirm?

[rebekahlynnharrison]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/res...-by-jefferies/

[W Hoa]

"At the BlackBerry Live conference in Orlando on May 14, CEO Thorsten Heins let fall that there were 60 million subscribers to BlackBerry Messenger"

If memory serves, I believe Thorsten said at the last earnings report that BlackBerry had 55 million BBM users. This then would be an increase of 5 million users.

[Bilaal]

We've started the day on a bumpy road it seems. I won't be surprised if we see a big dip by 10.30

[Bilaal]

Why a Blackberry Is Better Than an iPhone - CIO.com

I liked this quote:

The iPhone is one of the best-designed consumer entertainment products every created—but that wasn't why we originally bought a smartphone.

[Andrew4life]

Just experienced a small earthquake in N. Ontario. Anybody in Ottawa area confirm?

Yup, guess the bears successfully shook the BBRY stock and stopped the rally in it's tracks.

[duckJAI]

I just bought some Jan 14 $30 calls for $0.30 cents. That's CHEAP.

I bought the exact same calls a few weeks ago at 0.37 and the SP was at $13.xx (sold those a week ago before the big dip).

[sparkaction]

If memory serves, I believe Thorsten said at the last earnings report that BlackBerry had 55 million BBM users. This then would be an increase of 5 million users.

Does anyone have the seekingalpha transcript handy?

[morganplus8]

I think your computer has to be on but Link does not need to be open? This is a nice feature, I don't think I will use it much since I don't leave my work PC on for security reasons and have access files via Carbonite back-up, but for many, this is a great feature.

I have access to my PC without Link loaded or running in the back ground. This is an excellent feature for BlackBerry, it loads so quickly anywhere I'm at. Combine this feature with the HDMI cable and I have some powerful choices here. I was seeing my surgeon and he wanted to see a sample of a picture from my personal otoscope, for his students. I handed my phone to him within 15 sceonds of the request and told him it was from my PC at home. It takes another 5 minutes to explain how I did that!

I also use Splashtop but these two are entirely different applications. Splashtop allows my tablet to access my PC via the exact same screens on both devices. This is really clumsy to say the least, and slow. With "Link" and RFM I can download, edit, upload back to my PC in no time at all. It is cool showing my iPhone friends the nice list of social messaging in Hub and then off to File Manager to show them all of my periferals there! A stunning feature by BlackBerry.

[jmehta22]

Does anyone have the seekingalpha transcript handy?

yep...

Blackberry CEO Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha

[OMGitworks]

I just bought some Jan 14 $30 calls for $0.30 cents. That's CHEAP.

I bought the exact same calls a few weeks ago at 0.37 and the SP was at $13.xx (sold those a week ago before the big dip).

Options are funny. I like playing around with them once in a while. Obviously the last few weeks made the traders less enthusiastic about BBRY's long term prospects. Do you happen to know what they were trading at just before BB Live? Just wondering if they got much cheaper after that event.

[W Hoa]

If memory serves, I believe Thorsten said at the last earnings report that BlackBerry had 55 million BBM users. This then would be an increase of 5 million users.

In a reply to my own post I did find this from last year:

BlackBerry World 2012: RIM Still Has A Few Tricks Up Its Sleeve
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Today, Thorsten Heins took the stage at his first BlackBerry World. He discussed how the profiles of today�s 77 million BlackBerry users are hyperconnected, even compared to other smartphone users. He provided the following statistics:

63% access social media daily while 87% of BlackBerry users do this. (As a side note, there are also over 55 million BBM subscribers)

BlackBerry World 2012: RIM Still Has A Few Tricks Up Its Sleeve - Forbes

[leafs123]

Does anyone have the seekingalpha transcript handy?

Good memory! At least a year ago, that's what this article says.

RIM updates Facebook, Twitter apps in BlackBerry Messenger push | ZDNet

[duckJAI]

Options are funny. I like playing around with them once in a while. Obviously the last few weeks made the traders less enthusiastic about BBRY's long term prospects. Do you happen to know what they were trading at just before BB Live? Just wondering if they got much cheaper after that event.

They did, much cheaper after the BB Live event which I kinda anticipated (all events, in the last few months, the SP goes down -some bad spin off of news brings the SP down).

I forgot what it was trading at before the event, but certainly not $0.30 for the Jan 2014 $30 calls.

[Charles Martin1]

Looks like the bull is at least walking...

[Bilaal]

Early trading, highest peak at $14.85 before the 10.30 dip. Today can end at a green comfortably, especially given the Jefferies update and the few positive articles.

[BB_Trader]

Stupid me. Hahaha. I started the day with HOD on TSX, buy and sell for a +.39 % roi and then by mistake put in an order to "buy on cover" BB at $15.20 (= going long), when in fact I meant to "short sell". However, all good, my broker moved the order into my margin account, thereafter I sweated bullets as BB fell back to below $15.10, however, nice pop up, I sold at $15.27 for a +.46% roi. Ok, time to short BB and perhaps long on HOD. Phew, have a great day everyone.