[slipstream89]

yah..dont know what to say right now. Pretty disappointing

[Bbnivende]

BlackBerry has been trying to make a comeback with its new BlackBerry 10 (BB10) operating system and line of devices. The new line was introduced in late January of this year, with its first BB10 smartphone -- the Z10 -- being released at that same time in the UK. It rolled out slowly throughout the next couple of months, ending with a U.S. launch on March 22.

It is not a given that BB10 sales can offset the loss in BB07 sales in Q2. Is it ?

This means that BB10 couldn't really use the first quarter to its full potential as far as shipments go, and numbers could pick up in Q2 2013 -- especially since its second BB10 smartphone (the Q10) is being released throughout May.

DailyTech - IDC: Windows Phone Passes BlackBerry for Third Place in Q1 Shipments

[tiziano27]

Then how do you know the numbers are accurate enough to be bad?

Estimates imply uncertainty, so you never know for sure. But those firms are professional in their area, not a biased analyst trying to impact the stock price, and are two independent estimations.

[Charles Martin1]

Well here's to hoping you are wrong.

Absolutely.

I've got no stops in place, so it's whatever comes at this point...

[Zarpan]

Where are they getting their data from for March?

I believe they get it the same way that Wall Street analysts do. Some supply chain and retail checks, and a whole lot of guesswork after that. They have a reasonable idea about BlackBerry's sales and shipments in Jan and Feb (although they still need to figure out how much of BlackBerry's quarter numbers came in December), but March is a lot of estimating.

The following article was about Gartner and IDC figures for Apple computers, but had these quotes.

"What all this really shows is that unless these celebrated firms are working from sales figures supplied by the companies themselves, they're giving us numbers that look solid and definitive but are more like data souffl�s. Kick them a couple times and they're liable to collapse."

"But in the increasingly important smartphone and tablet markets, in which Apple issues unit sales numbers but its largest competitors don't, Gartner and IDC -- and all the analysts who depend on them -- are flying blind."

Apple's Mac U.S. sales grew 7.4% (Gartner) or fell 7.5% (IDC) - Apple 2.0 -Fortune Tech

[Charles Martin1]

I tried to buy a little bit more too (~$40K), but transfer got stuck...

I'm thinking that there's going to be some lower opportunities tomorrow.

[bigbbrybeliever]

I wish that we could know what products BB had in store for the remainder of the year, but the general public would not. I was a bit worried that TH was going to drop a strong hint of a phablet for Xmas at BB Live. That would have been, IMO, a mistake. We'd have had a minor stock pop, good for the short term, but in the next 1 or 2 quarters sales would have suffered while people delayed making a purchase.

We need steady sales now, more than ever, while BB continues their transition. If there is an Xmas phablet on the way, great! But don't announce until September at the earliest. But let's face it, BB hasn't been able (or wanted to?) avoid leaking pics of future phones months before their release. I doubt that will change, so I suspect by August/September we would start seeing leaks of anything coming out at Xmas.

You have very good point and I fully agree with you. However, before a new smartphone can be released to market for actual sale, it has to go through the carry testing at which it will be very hard to keep it under the lid, while this testing phase could be take more than 3 to 4 months or half year. I will be happy that if they can keep quiet during the lab development stage while letting the media to guess what it is during the carry testing stage.

[lcjr]

I'm thinking that there's going to be some lower opportunities tomorrow.

Let the elevator finally go up now. All those waiting for the next ride can take the blasted stairs! lol

[Charles Martin1]

Let the elevator finally go up now. All those waiting for the next ride can take the blasted stairs! lol

I agree. Get this bloody thing going. We get to the 16th floor and then fall a couple every time...

here's another one...

[Charles Martin1]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/res...al-media-play/

[Charles Martin1]

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY): A MegaPhone Coming? - Insider Monkey

[morganplus8]

I tried to buy a little bit more too (~$40K), but transfer got stuck...

That's what I picked up today, seemed like a good price at the time ($ 14.61) but tomorrow we could finish the drop to the 8-month uptrend line and complete the circle of life. It doesn't really matter in the months ahead, pennies here and there, the rally hasn't begun yet. When the stock's bullish/bearish range is reduced to just $ 1.50/shr, we have to hit both extremes!

News was kind of negative today wasn't it?

Look for another boring day tomorrow. Best of luck!

[BThunderW]

I suspect the next few days/weeks are going to be rather boring. I don't expect any major announcements for a little while. Worst case we'll start descending slightly on low volume with mostly sideways trading.

Next major catalyst is going to be Q10 US launch. But that's close to a month away.

[Acumenight]

Does anybody here even work!?!? I Can't keep up with you guys!

Thanks all for the contributions everyone... my lord, another 10 pages to go...

[lcjr]

I suspect the next few days/weeks are going to be rather boring. I don't expect any major announcements for a little while. Worst case we'll start descending slightly on low volume with mostly sideways trading.

Next major catalyst is going to be Q10 US launch. But that's close to a month away.

Well, at the very least it gives folks some more opportunities to rack up some more shares before this starts climbing again.

[take99]

I used to until I started following this thread.....Now I lose money on BBRY 2 different ways lol

Does anybody here even work!?!? I Can't keep up with you guys!

Thanks all for the contributions everyone... my lord, another 10 pages to go...

[spiller]

I think so too. These quiet days usually end the same way. Perhaps Monday or Tuesday will begin to show us some GREEN again.

Bigger problem for me now. I missed the close and couldn't dump them. In meetings all afternoon steady. Need me an upgrade tomorrow for a change.

[lcjr]

Does anybody here even work!?!? I Can't keep up with you guys!

Thanks all for the contributions everyone... my lord, another 10 pages to go...

As more and more join this thread, the pages will turn faster and faster.

[spiller]

Estimates imply uncertainty, so you never know for sure. But those firms are professional in their area, not a biased analyst trying to impact the stock price, and are two independent estimations.

Those analyst (Gartner) Q1s are jan -mar right? BBRY ER Q1 will be mar-may.

Likely very little sales in Jan as people waited for the BB10 launch event. Add in Q10 sales for May (2M+), and three months of Z10 (vs 2 in those estimate reports). I'd say close to 8M...at least 7.5. I think a few weeks ago I put my own estimates/numbers out on this thread with total 7.9M

[Shanerredflag]

Off topic but...Gohan what's your take on PXX? PM me if you don't want to post here...thx

Posted via CB10

[La Emperor]

Some positive news at the home front. Also remember there was an earlier report on India where Apple is way behind BBRY and Samsung. Hopefully a good setup for a turnaround tomorrow.


Raymond James‘s Tavis McCourt this afternoon writes that he is raising his growth estimate for smartphones after reviewing Q1 sales data from Gartner published with that firm’s global sales report on Tuesday.

McCourt now sees smartphone unit sales rising 36% this year, higher than a prior projection for growth in a range of 25% to 30%, noting that strength in China and emerging markets is helping to produce upside.

Sales in China, per Gartner, rose 110%, higher than the 105% rate in Q4, while emerging markets saw 66% unit smartphone growth, higher than the global 43% growth rate.

“China is pulling forward massive smartphone demand into 2013, and based on penetration rates,” notes McCourt, though he observes that with 65% of handsets sales in China being smartphones last quarter, “we can probably expect smartphone growth to slow to 10-20% in China in 2014 as it will
be approaching penetration rates seen in the U.S./Western Europe today.”

“Expect India and Latin America to drive smartphone growth post-2013.”

As far as vendors, Apple‘s (AAPL) 16% unit growth in the quarter paled beside Samsung Electronics‘s (005930KS) 59% growth:

But Samsung is consolidating Android share in the developed world and actively going after price points in emerging markets where Apple is not. In order for y/y iPhone growth to accelerate at a sustainable level, we believe its price point needs to be lower or bigger-screened iPhones need to be introduced. We believe both these options are in the product pipeline.

BlackBerry (BBRY) saw “deterioration” in smartphone markets but the company could be helped by opening up its “BBM” instant messaging service to iPhone and Google’s (GOOG) Android:

BlackBerry volumes were down 37% y/y globally and down 33% y/y in emerging markets for the second quarter in a row. Only six quarters ago, volumes were up 111% in emerging markets. BlackBerry’s share of emerging market smartphones was 2.7% in 1Q13 down from 3.9% in 4Q12 and even below its 3% global share. Given the rapid deterioration of trends in emerging markets, where BBM functionality had been the primary driver of Blackberry adoption, it certainly makes sense to open up BBM to other platforms given the share loss that is occurring to low-end Android devices anyway.

Nokia (NOK) is not “winning any battles”:

Nokia’s smartphone volumes were down 56% y/y to 5.9 million (does not include Asha) vs. 13.3 million in 1Q12. Overall handset volumes were down 24% for Nokia. There remains little evidence of success as of yet in Nokia’s handset turnaround strategy.

Regarding China, McCourt notes,

The Chinese market remains severely fragmented, with Chinese-based manufacturers, including ZTE, Huawei, Lenovo and a large assortment of white-box vendors holding roughly 75% share of all handset sales and 67% of all smartphone sales during 1Q13. Smartphones represented 65% of all handset sales, up from 33% just one year ago. Meanwhile, Nokia’s share continued to shrink and is now under 3%, while Samsung grew its share to 13%. Of note, Apple climbed to 6.3% share of total handsets in China, surpassing its previous high of 5.6% shares reached one year ago during the iPhone 4S launch. We expect an iPhone on China Mobile could bring it more into the consistent 10% share range.

In the last four quarters, the brand “other” controlled 52% of unit sell-through in China, he notes.

In India, Nokia controlled 21% of sell-through in the last four quarters, Samsung 20%, and “other” accounted for 53.4% of sales, which is interesting in light of an earlier report by Global Equities Research on that country:

India handset sales volumes grew just 0.8% y/y to 54.1 million, down from 57.3 million in 4Q12. Nokia’s share declined 320 bp 24.6% to 21.4%, as the strong demand from the launch of new Asha phones during the second half of last year appears to have disintegrated. Meanwhile, Samsung’ share decline slightly from 21.8% to 20.3%. Smartphone demand remains subdued as the rollout of 3G coverage in India continues to be slow. More than half the market (53.4%) is still dominated by non-Western, largely Chinese and Indian handset vendors, including Micromax, with low-end feature phones.

Apple continued to hold the stop spot in Canada, he observes, though BlackBerry made gains and should add to that with this quarter’s Q10 release:

The launch of the BlackBerry Z10 in 1Q13 finally reversed Blackberry’s share slide, jumping from 6% in 4Q12 to 13.5% this quarter. For some context, two years ago in 1Q11, BlackBerry had 21.8% share. Even more share gains are expected in 2Q13 with the launch of the QWERTY-keyboard Q10 in Canada. Following the strong iPhone 5 launch, which lead to 44% share in 4Q13, Apple’s share dropped to 40.1% in 1Q13. Samsung held tightly to its number two position despite its share declining slightly to 29.8% from 32.1% in 4Q12.

AAPL, BBRY, NOK Challenged as China, EM Drive Smartphones, Says Raymond James - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

[W Hoa]

La Emperor, I was just about to post the same article you did. But with a much more dramatic heading:

BlackBerry sales in Canada up 125% in single quarter!

[EnchantedBB]

lol, I made $4 today. Literally!

Oh come on, I lost 6K on paper and I'm not worried.

[La Emperor]

La Emperor, I was just about to post the same article you did. But with a much more dramatic heading:

BlackBerry sales in Canada up 125% in single quarter!

LOL!!! Thanks.

What's also interesting is BB starting to climb in share at the expense of Apple ( -3.9% ) and Samsung (-2.3%). I wonder what the UK numbers are as we have a bigger following there.

[gohan_bcc]

Off topic but...Gohan what's your take on PXX? PM me if you don't want to post here...thx

Posted via CB10

Hey,

Blackpearl used to be a big buy stock a few years back. Honestly, the management is good and the company has some solid assets. At the end of the day, all juniors have been hammered hard this year and it is extremely tough to predict where it goes from here. Right now is probably some of the biggest Risk/Reward you can take right now because either gas either continues to slowly fall, or something drives demand or cuts supply increasing prices. If Gas moves up then any Junior O&G company (Blackpearl included) will see huge huge returns and so will investors. Now PXX is heavy oil so I'd have to argue that it's not too bad or a commpany to be in but differentials have been huge lately, which are not a good thing.

An excerpt from TBE Q1 "The first quarter of 2013 was dominated by the dramatic widening of the differential between benchmark pricing of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) and the Canada heavy oil benchmark WCS (Western Canadian Select) from the historical average differential levels of under $20.00 in the fourth quarter of 2012. The differentials hit record levels in February of over $35.00 but have fortunately contracted and are forecasted to average about $19.00 in the second quarter. The first quarter differential was $31.96 per bbl versus the fourth quarter average of $18.69 per bbl. These all-time high oil differentials combined with extreme weather-related operating conditions made early 2013 a most challenging environment for virtually all Western Canadian heavy oil producers."

If you are bullish on gas/oil & the differentials I'd say go fo it. If not, I'd say probably a safe back off. If you are interested in heavy oil as well, check out TBE. Currently a 8.5% yield and probably a little better assets. Also a top buy for many firms with an average target price of 3.15 I believe.

Disclaimer:
Just my personal view and opinion. Invest with care!

P.s. If you are interested PM me your email and I'll fwd you over some research reports I've gotten to read up on.