[AngryEdmontonian]

Is there a beta version of BBM Channels available yet?

Yes, in fact...






Posted via CB10 on my Z10

[morganplus8]

I think the US rule is 3 days but I also think that there are plenty of work arounds. I haven't been involved since the new rules went into effect but those types are "Creative ".

MP8 - how do they bypass the rules these days. I assume it's happening?

Posted via CB10

Naked shorting is serious business and they are able to maintain their positions for two reasons, no one seems to care, and secondly, they cross blocks to new accounts frequently. Transferring shares from account X to Y restarts the clock. We need to remember that naked shorting isn't what is killing this stock, rather, there are long term legit short positions that just refuse to lift. The time will come when they won't be able to maintain these positions and that time is when target prices are rising. Misek can't raise the target price of this stock from $ 22.00/shr on a whim, he needs concrete data in the form of unit sales and earnings to take the price higher. As soon as he can plug in some real data, his BB model will drive the target to a different level. We have some dummies below $ 10.00 and some high-end targets at $ 22.00/shr and neither side can argue their case right now.

For instance, my thoughts and targets are worth nothing but I see us closer to $ 30.00/shr by the end of this year and higher next year. The key here is BB's business model changes, which typically drive/justify higher P/E multiples. Analysts are using the 7 - 8 times EPS for their estimates and BlackBerry is setting up software/social models of 60 times EPS. We will meet somewhere in the middle of those two ranges. If you look at Amazon, Facebook and all of the other social/growth/differentiated sector stocks, they carry huge multiples, BB is heading in this direction with BBM. We could easily hit a 15 P/E on $ 4.00/shr in Fiscal 2015. That would be easy enough to do if we see them get Enterprise, hardware and social models in sync.. I'm really pumped about their future.

The naked short positions will cover first, then the long term shorts followed by those who aren't that far under. We need the data to get things rolling here. If you want to see where the drive is coming from look no further than Apple, the stock just gave up its 50-dma today. It is in a very sad state. No wonder Prem Watsa is looking at $ 40.00/shr, nothing below that makes sense to him. If he bought shares taking his holding above 9.9%, the shorts would cover. It just takes one major bit of news to start thing s rolling here.

[spiller]

Who is selling at $15?

Edit: rhetorical question. doesn't make sense the SP shot to 15.35 after the bad news so why trickle down this far again...

[leafs123]

Is there a beta version of BBM Channels available yet?

Yes, you gotta join the beta program in the beta zone and follow the instructions from there.

[BBNation]

On US Q10 june release, Is it possible that BB did not want to include any US q10 sales bear arugments in the next quarter results as June 1st is cutover for the next quarter. If it was released in may bears would say they only sold so many q10s in USA, blah, blah..may be BB want to hit hard in the next quarter with q10 released in major markets ?
Any thoughts ?

[OMGitworks]

I thought naked short sales had to be covered in a VERY timely manner like a day or two. If they were to be the real "culprit" and could be held indefinitely, then why would anyone go the loan route and pay the interest on the loaned out shares?

CJ, I don't want to say I am by any means an expert on this. I do have some experience from a prior job. I am sure MP8 could do a better job and I am sure this is the type of thing you can read doctoral dissertations about. All I can say is that it makes my head hurt to think about those days, the complexity of it all is staggering. They basically do so and pay the %, because they have to as demanded by the system. It's just " how it works." The large institutions all have agreements with one another. In the end it is about risk management, nobody wants all of any deal, as they assess risk they raise the fee and interest rate as they evaluate their risk. Despite all the finance people and lawyers involved, it comes down to trust in each other and the system. This is why the Lehman collapse was so devastating. The big boys all assume the other is managing their risk properly and while their are contracts and collateral and "insurance" to back it up (to a point) it all works, until it doesn't, its the system and trust of the system that keeps it afloat. Nobody could imagine a Lehman could fail. Once word go out there was basically a run on the bank, and there was no orderly way fr them to meet all of their leveraged obligations or get more credit. The trust part was gone. When it was about to fail 100's of billions were at stake and the Fed and US Treasury had to step in to stop a complete collapse. It would be impossible to unwind completely (the 'too big to fail" argument), everything and everyone is leveraged and interconnected.

There are all sorts of large bets I could never fathom understanding. When they ran out of actual things to bet on, they made up stuff. There are synthetic instruments and derivatives that are pretty much pure, huge gambles, placed with leveraged money. Companies like AIG sold insurance to cover them. How could anyone have guessed it would all end badly???

The mortgage crisis came about as the result of greed as it always does. Imagine you bought a mortgage backed security from one of the most trusted US's largest firms, AAA rated by Standard and Poors and insured by AIG. How could that possibly be a bad investment? Again very complex but for the most part they caused the great recession because the folks who modelled it all assumed real estate would always go up and did not price or factor in the possibililty that prices would go down. Duh!!!!

This too long blurb is overly simplistic doesn't do justice to the complexity of it all and is only my opinion. Going back to the original post, there are the rules and then there is how it really works. They may not be mutually exclusive, but they are certainly not the same.

[take99]

This should drive the SP lol

Cellphone app helps save trapped ducklings in Windsor

A cellphone app is being credited for helping save the lives of a pair of ducklings in Windsor, Ont.

A mother duck and her two babies were walking along Longfellow Avenue when the two ducklings fell more than a metre straight down into a storm drain.

"She started to walk away and we heard noise coming out of the sewer," resident Michael Williams said of the mother duck.

Once inside, the scared ducklings swam into a pipe leading underground, away from the reservoir.

That's when Williams called the City of Windsor and pulled out his smartphone.

While waiting for maintenance crew, Williams downloaded a duck call app for his Blackberry Z10.

Together, Williams and city employee George Thomas began the rescue effort.

Williams used the digital duck call to lure the ducklings back into the main reservoir, where Thomas scooped them up with a net.

"I thought maybe there was an app for duck calls. Thankfully, they have an app for everything and it worked out," Williams said. "I held it up to the sewer and the two ducks just came out."

CBC Windsor's Katia Augustin caught the entire rescue on video with her iPhone.

Thomas said the city receives two or three calls a year reporting ducks trapped in storm drains.

"Usually the [Ministry of Natural Resources] comes by to help out. We got lucky this time," Thomas said. "He used his app. We pulled them out. That was it.

"It feels good. It feels blessed."

[morganplus8]

Who is selling at $15?

Edit: rhetorical question. doesn't make sense the SP shot to 15.35 after the bad news so why trickle down this far again...

You know, when a stock hits new lows, it is normal for that stock to drop back and test those lows again to see if there really is support down there. BlackBerry is so far from bearish now that it can't even do this simple step. Six days ago, we should have touched the 50-dma and we didn't, we turned and went right back up. Today, we made a higher low, again, and can't seem to drop back even on quiet volume, and affirm those lows. My guess is that the downside is burnt out, that we don't have any sellers left at these levels and that BBRY is in strong hands.

Let's see if they can push it lower here, as we usually don't buy stock on its second day after a sell-off. Rules are made to be broken and BlackBerry is tired of going down. Within a minute we could turn positive as that is the direction of least resistance.

Update:
My evidence of this is our very own BB Trader, he moved from the Yahoo board because, there is no life there for bearish nonsense any more. But he thought he was above all of that anyway, and upped his game by coming to this board to play in the big leagues. After some table pounding antics about how BBRY is dead, he claims some weak trades and leaves with his tail between his legs because no one is scared, no one cares what he thinks, and no one is interested in making pennies on the dollar. His type have no relevance any more. When this character fails, it shows you times are changing for BlackBerry.

[BB_Trader]

Good afternoon. I never went long on BB, in fact I covered half of my short position, then my provider's live streaming crashed, g'rrr, watche BB rally to $15.70's (congrats Bulls, I hope you profited). Thereafter I cost averaged my position and covered 100% again in the $15.40's for a profit. Traded short on ng and oil ETFs for fast money. Now, back shorting BB for the close. Whoops, look at that BB at $15.27, in the money, gotta go. I suspect Bears are going to crowd the close. Keep in mind markets in Canada are closed on Monday. Wish you all well, bulls and bears.

[Bugmapper]

WHAT? I Can't Hear you BB_Trader cuz you is on my IGNORE LIST! hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Please repeat what you said.

[Kid Vibe]

I thanked BB_Trader. I think he needs some friends.

[leafs123]

Google launched their own chat platform, called Hangouts available on iOS and Android.

Google unveils Hangouts: a unified messaging system for Android, iOS, and Chrome | The Verge

[kfh227]

On US Q10 june release, Is it possible that BB did not want to include any US q10 sales bear arugments in the next quarter results as June 1st is cutover for the next quarter. If it was released in may bears would say they only sold so many q10s in USA, blah, blah..may be BB want to hit hard in the next quarter with q10 released in major markets ?
Any thoughts ?

Demand is higher than expected so manufacturing haw to catch up.

Posted via CB10

[BlackistheBerry]

Update:
My evidence of this is our very own BB Trader, he moved from the Yahoo board because, there is no life there for bearish nonsense any more. But he thought he was above all of that anyway, and upped his game by coming to this board to play in the big leagues. After some table pounding antics about how BBRY is dead, he claims some weak trades and leaves with his tail between his legs because no one is scared, no one cares what he thinks, and no one is interested in making pennies on the dollar. His type have no relevance any more. When this character fails, it shows you times are changing for BlackBerry.

Thanks to this evidence, now I really do believe you!..... Lol

I know I have used the Thanks button a million times for yout posts, but haven't actually said it. Just wanted to let you know, I really appreciate all that you do for this thread, and everyone here.
Keep up the good work, and THANKS once again!

[cjcampbell]

I thanked BB_Trader. I think he needs some friends.

Funny.... I think he's being put on more and more ignore lists. You can chalk one more to that growing number Was entertaining at first but now it's just ridiculous, childish behaviour.

[take99]

Bernstein still sounds bullish, just not short term

Ferragu, however doesn’t advise you short the stock given that several factors could support the shares above the $10 failure price mentioned above:
Blackberry is not a good short. The company remains in the middle of a platform transition that could result in continued good momentum and a stabilisation of its operating model. Beyond the legendary high short interest on the name, we see 4 strong reasons not to be too pessimistic on the name [...] Launch momentum will likely continue to remain strong in the next 3 months and possibly beyond: In major European countries like France, marketing campaigns haven’t started yet and can be source of additional traction [...] Pent up demand is largely intact: We see major pent-up demand for the new Blackberry platform. If only a small portion of Blackberry’s 76m user base is upgraded in the first months of the launch, the company can turn around its P&L. [...] Low end / Blackberry 7 demand is likely to remain relatively steady: In the fourth quarter, sell through for BB7 was above 7m, more than 2m above sell in. This is down less than 15% sequentially, despite the Z10 launch, which reflects a stability of demand for low-end Blackberry. This is a strong stabilising factor beyond the second quarter [...] The evolution of Blackberry’s service business model is potentially misunderstood and source of upside: First, the reported quarter and guidance given for the ongoing quarter largely supports the idea that there will be resilience in Service revenues, at least in the near term. For now, the majority of users switching to Blackberry 10 are consumers, for which service revenues are very low anyway. That’s the reason why we didn’t see much service revenue decline this quarter and we are unlikely to see a steep acceleration of it, which was confirmed by the company’s guidance (single digit decline next quarter). Second, investors shouldn’t assume service revenues from corporate clients will go away. The migration to Blackberry 10 corresponds to a migration towards a tiered pricing structure that we believe will be neutral for large corporate clients and only marginally negative for smaller clients. Overall we expect service margins to decline only modestly in the next couple of quarters and could stabilise towards the end of the year.

[jayrock52]

All right muppets, another BIG name added to his $BBRY position... Coatue has now 6.5m shares... (+4m from 12/31) https://t.co/ruStgLeVkQ

Just came across this on Twitter. Pretty interesting. Looks like Lazaridis increased his position as well.

Posted via CB10

[ItsTheBox]

Flatline at $15

Sent from my SPH-L900 using CB Forums mobile app

[Bigbacala]

On US Q10 june release, Is it possible that BB did not want to include any US q10 sales bear arugments in the next quarter results as June 1st is cutover for the next quarter. If it was released in may bears would say they only sold so many q10s in USA, blah, blah..may be BB want to hit hard in the next quarter with q10 released in major markets ?
Any thoughts ?

What if sales number for this quarter were already so good that they decided to push it into the next quarter just to keep the initial sales surge numbers high for the next quarter as well?

Posted via CB10

[tiziano27]

On US Q10 june release, Is it possible that BB did not want to include any US q10 sales bear arugments in the next quarter results as June 1st is cutover for the next quarter. If it was released in may bears would say they only sold so many q10s in USA, blah, blah..may be BB want to hit hard in the next quarter with q10 released in major markets ?
Any thoughts ?

If sales are poor they can buy another quarter with this, before the press start to state the death of BB.

[BB_Trader]

Yikes, there goes the DOW, so goes BB and friends, Dow Jones | Dow Jones Index | DJI

[spiller]

WHAT? I Can't Hear you BB_Trader cuz you is on my IGNORE LIST! hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Please repeat what you said.

Ha! Same with me!

[Fortyniner]

Yikes, there goes the DOW, so goes BB and friends, Dow Jones | Dow Jones Index | DJI

Let me guess you are long AAPL.

[zyben]

All right muppets, another BIG name added to his $BBRY position... Coatue has now 6.5m shares... (+4m from 12/31) https://t.co/ruStgLeVkQ

Just came across this on Twitter. Pretty interesting. Looks like Lazaridis increased his position as well.

Posted via CB10

Lazaridis adding shares, while a relatively small amount compared to his existing holdings, is welcome and important news.

[take99]

“The Q5 is clearly an emerging-market play,” said Stadtler, president of Fort Worth, Texas-based Stadtler Capital Management, which owns about 70,000 BlackBerry shares. Giving the BBM application away allows more devices to communicate with BlackBerry handsets, removing an obstacle to sales, he said. “They actually have a better shot of selling BlackBerry devices by giving away the BBM app than not,” said Stadtler.
BlackBerry sales in Latin America, South Asia, Africa and parts of Europe have held up better than in North America in part because BBM offered a free way for consumers to communicate in countries where the cost of Internet data and text messaging is typically higher. Chief Executive Officer Thorsten Heins is betting that widening the reach of BBM to users of rival devices will outweigh the short-term risks of losing the exclusivity on BBM.
Losing Exclusivity
Sales from Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for 46 percent of sales last quarter, up from 37 percent three quarters earlier. Before then, BlackBerry didn’t break out sales by those regions. Latin America was stable at 14 percent and Asia slipped from 21 percent to 18 percent.
“We now believe that BB10 is so convincing that we can let BBM grow on its own merit,” Heins told reporters yesterday at the annual BlackBerry Live conference in Orlando, Florida.
The move is a gamble for the smartphone maker, Steven Li, an analyst at Raymond James in Toronto, said in an interview at the conference yesterday. While it increases the reach of the service, it’s not clear how BlackBerry will make money given that Apple and Android users won’t have to pay to download the BBM app.
Getting Paid
“They are losing exclusivity, but counting on the fact that the BBM experience is much better than any of the other messaging apps,” said Li, who has the equivalent of a hold rating on BlackBerry. “I’m still not sure how they monetize it.”
New BBM channels -- essentially chat rooms focused on specific themes -- will eventually create opportunities for advertisers to target users by sponsoring posts, said Andrew Bocking, BlackBerry’s executive vice president of software product management. It’s too early to say when BBM channels might begin to generate revenue, he said.
“With BBM channels, it will be the core set of brands that users most care about,” Bocking said.