[psy fi]

They have a few decent reporters, but most are more entertainment than anything else. Some of you folks may remember Mark Haines, he passed away a few years ago unexpectedly, but he was a GREAT host on CNBC. He called it as he saw it and called BS when guests or analysts were grandstanding. He held everybody's feet to the fire. He was great to watch and didn't let anyone get away with anything. He was there for 9/11 and the credit crash and was stellar. Since he passed, it has been all downhill at CNBC.

Yes, I remeber Mark Haines well. He was not one to get carried away by the noise and hoopla of the markets. I haven't watch much CNBC for a while. Sad to hear he's passed away.

[BB_Trader]

nice pump, thanks. could not resist. bring on the dump. i don't see the "rally" holding to the close / overnight. these BB social club conventions do nothing for me. just the facts please.

[BB_Trader]

Yes, I remeber Mark Haines well. He was not one to get carried away by the noise and hoopla of the markets. I haven't watch much CNBC for a while. Sad to hear he's passed away.

i don't watch, but do listen to cnbc on the radio, however, when they get carried away switch to another station i do, regardless, they do move the market whether you like it or not. and yes, mark was enjoyable, better than some of the loudmouths they have now.

[ItsTheBox]

Intraday pennant forming?

[q649]

Well, I assume he is referring to the Linux kernel that powers both OSes. Both QNX and Android are based on the same OS: Linux.

What the heck are you talking about?

The QNX OS is not a Linux distribution, and has nothing to do with Linux.

[cjcampbell]

nice pump, thanks. could not resist. bring on the dump. i don't see the "rally" holding to the close / overnight. these BB social club conventions do nothing for me. just the facts please.

Well I'm glad the market doesn't react like you do as these "social club" gatherings do do something for investors and market players. Thanks for your opinion though.

[greggebhardt]

Well I'm glad the market doesn't react like you do as these "social club" gatherings do do something for investors market players. Thanks for your opinion though.

How about taking a break from hitting that Cow Bell for about 90 minutes

[new_me222]

What the heck are you talking about?

The QNX OS is not a Linux distribution, and has nothing to do with Linux.

I must apologize.

QNX indeed appears to be based on Unix, not Linux. I must have read wrong the first time. Weird.

[morganplus8]

Thanks for those words!

I was referring to the higher levels of data that your broker can provide you with. I have 5 Levels of complex data that I can call on to help me decide how a trade is shaping up. I referred to Level II because most accounts allow for this database if you are fairly active or have a large enough account. I assume that most of you can access this Level. When I watch Level II, I'm looking for market depth of the buy/sells, or how many are lining up to sell the stock. I see the brokers names, the amount they have marked to sell and the price. So far today, the market depth have been 1:2 meaning that there is at least twice as much stock for sale as those wishing to buy. So that isn't good news is it? LOL

But, we changed from 1:2 to 2:1 and higher in the last 20 minutes meaning that we are going to battle that $ 16.02/shr level that my charts pointed out. We are piling up buy orders just under that level as I type. I would like to see us close above $ 16.02/shr with volume to prove my TA is correct. Let's see if they can do it.

Just before I post this message, here is what is happening, the ratio stayed at 2:1 as a print, but a trade (well over a 100,000 shares) was dropped from $ 16.02/shr onto the bids and someone bought those shares out right and didn't show the trade on the "bid" meaning that the 2:1 ratio is sucking in trades and there is a hidden trade/buy taking the sell order. This means that the unofficial "bid" is much larger than the bears think. Let's see how it plays out here.

haha... the last thing I want to do is jinx you man. I liken my reaction to Wayne and Garth on their knees, bowing, and saying "we're not worthy.... we're not worthy" lol.

I do have a question.... you've mentioned "level 2 twice now today. Could you explain?

[cjcampbell]

How about taking a break from hitting that Cow Bell for about 90 minutes

I gave it a break earlier as I was trying to get this damned new computer and Windows8 figured out (still haven't. I'm NOT a fan!!). Banging this thing helps with the frustration. ahaha

[cjcampbell]

Thanks for those words!

I was referring to the higher levels of data that your broker can provide you with. I have 5 Levels of complex data that I can call on to help me decide how a trade is shaping up. I referred to Level II because most accounts allow for this database if you are fairly active or have a large enough account. I assume that most of you can access this Level. When I watch Level II, I'm looking for market depth of the buy/sells, or how many are lining up to sell the stock. I see the brokers names, the amount they have marked to sell and the price. So far today, the market depth have been 1:2 meaning that there is at least twice as much stock for sale as those wishing to buy. So that isn't good news is it? LOL

But, we changed from 1:2 to 2:1 and higher in the last 20 minutes meaning that we are going to battle that $ 16.02/shr level that my charts pointed out. We are piling up buy orders just under that level as I type. I would like to see us close above $ 16.02/shr with volume to prove my TA is correct. Let's see if they can do it.

Just before I post this message, here is what is happening, the ratio stayed at 2:1 as a print, but a trade (well over a 100,000 shares) was dropped from $ 16.02/shr onto the bids and someone bought those shares out right and didn't show the trade on the "bid" meaning that the 2:1 ratio is sucking in trades and there is a hidden trade/buy taking the sell order. This means that the unofficial "bid" is much larger than the bears think. Let's see how it plays out here.

That's fantastic. Thanks yet again. I'm just a small blip on the radar when it comes to amount in my account so not sure if I'd be able to access that but I'll look deeper and see. There's lots of area's I haven't visited on the RBC site out of sheer ignorance of not knowing what they mean or do.

As always, myself and others look forward to reading what you post. Always educational, informative, and helpful.

[greggebhardt]

I gave it a break earlier as I was trying to get this damned new computer and Windows8 figured out (still haven't. I'm NOT a fan!!). Banging this thing helps with the frustration. ahaha

I bought a Lenovo Carbon Touch and sent it back as I did not like Win8 either. I will be on WIndows 7 and the last version on Office for the rest of my life!

[OMGitworks]

I gave it a break earlier as I was trying to get this damned new computer and Windows8 figured out (still haven't. I'm NOT a fan!!). Banging this thing helps with the frustration. ahaha

You are brave for taking on Windows 8!!! GL!

[morganplus8]

Hmm - curious - typo or intentional? You said" if the news is good tomorrow, that number will fall, quickly" - but this isn'ta case of buy teh rumor, sell the news - right? There hasn't been any rumors to buy into that justify us being BELOW the last speaking engagement TH had to intro BB10 Jan 31st - no?

EDIT: Or perhaps, the emphasis wasn't on the falling as in the SP, but rather overcoming that $$ - thus aka it "falling by the waste-side"?

No, didn't mean to imply that there was a chance of "sell the news" but Heins will be moving the market tomorrow, there is little doubt about that. The Hedge Funds and shorts will be looking for something to promote as a selling point as they will try to defend the resistance levels. I would think that we can clear $ 16.59/shr easily if Heins provides a bit of detail on phone sales and where BES10 is going. The bears have little to grab onto here. Your last line is correct, I fully expect the $ 16.59 mark to fall or give way to the rally and clear us for a run to $ 17.50/shr. GL

[take99]

They are trying. From barrons

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are up 46 cents, or 3%, at $16, as the company heads toward its BlackBerry Live user conference in Orlando, Florida this week, starting with a keynote tomorrow morning by CEO Thorsten Heins.
The Street today offered multiple preview notes to clients regarding where the company is at and what to expect this week. (My own piece about the company is in this week's Barron's print magazine.)
RBC Capital Markets's Mark Sue reiterates a Sector Perform rating on the shares, and an $18 price target, writing that "Our checks suggest BlackBerry Q10 sell-through in Canada and the U.K. remains healthy though subsiding from the launch rush two weeks ago," referring to the handset based on BlackBerry's BB10 operating system that has a hardware keyboard.
"In the UK, the Q10 is now listed as #10 on Carphone Warehouse’s top monthly phones list. Less than 5% of stores we contacted in Canada and the U.K. last week were sold out," he adds.
Sales of Q10, and other BB10 handsets, are going into a "depleted" sales channel, he notes:
In light of depleted BlackBerry channel inventory, we believe BB10 channel fill will help drive BB10 shipments Q1/Q2. BlackBerry is expanding Z10 distribution from ~10 countries Q4/F13 to more than 70+ in 1-2 quarters. Early U.S. checks show some decent interest.
Sue sees a prospect for enterprise adoption of the BB10 devices, something he expects to be a focus this week:
BYOD headwinds may be difficult to ignore as Apple, Samsung and others improve their enterprise security offerings. We expect enterprise BB10 sell-through to build over the coming months, particularly after mid-June availability of BES10 SMS/ PIN archiving […] Enterprise Focus at BlackBerry Live This Week. At BlackBerry Live in Orlando, we expect the focus to be on the enterprise and expect details on the pending BES10 update (merges BES5.x and Fusion into BES10), pricing of new value-add services (like mobile device management for Android and iOS), and new features for BB10. We’re not expecting new BB10 smartphones to join the Z10 and Q10 until later in the fall.
UBS's Amitabh Passi reiterates a Neutral rating and a $13 price target, writing that he's skeptical of the company's chances in the face of competition from Samsung Electronics (005930KS) and others:
As we have written recently, there is likely an upward bias to estimates for the next quarter or so primarily from channel fill and some pent-up demand. Beyond that, we have seen little from Blackberry to inspire confidence in a turnaround in a hyper-competitive industry and formidable competitors including Samsung, Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Huawei, amongst others, with significantly more resources. BBRY remains a single-product company, with limited sustainable differentiation, no multi-screen strategy, and no compelling content ecosystem.
Evercore Partners's Mark McKechnie reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares, and an $8 price target, writing that he expects "volatility around the event as the company will likely provide a positive update on early adoption of its new Z10 and Q10 products."
McKechnie expects comments from Heins and others about the trend for Q10 and Z10 sales, and also further details on the "BlackBerry Enteprise Service" management software for mobile devices:
Look for any comments from the CEO on the magnitude of the sell-in – we forecast 3.5M BB10 devices in the May quarter and 3.3M in the August quarter, generally in-line with consensus. CEO has set expectations for “tens of millions” of BB10 devices sold this year versus our FY14 (January) forecast of 13M. We look for incremental commentary around developer support for BB10 – as of the end of March, the company boasted. 100K BB10 apps, 60 carriers, and 4,600 enterprises in North America that had registered for the BB10 ready program. We will watch closely for commentary regarding BBRY’s open service platform which will support Android and iOS in addition to BBRY products. Our industry checks suggest limited support from Android (particularly Samsung) for BBRY’s open services platform – namely Samsung is not releasing APIs to BBRY whom they see as a competitor, but is rather partnered with more “open” MDM players including AirWatch, Mobile Iron, and CTXS via its Zenprise acquisition. Look for the roll-out of a BES10 platform in the coming months that supports legacy BB7 products --- we view the current BES10 platform as limited in scope as it does not yet offer backward compatibility for BB7 – thus to support BB10 devices, IT managers need to deploy a brand new server (virtual or appliance) in addition to their legacy BES services.
Pacific Crest's James Faucette reiterates an Underperform rating on the stock, writing that in contrast to Sue's contention that a depleted sales channel is ready for inventory, the channel may not be ready, and BlackBerry itself may be taking on inventory:
After having needed two years to re- duce channel inventory of BlackBerry devices, we believe that distributors, retailers and carriers may be a little less willing to take on large levels of inventory in excess of sell- through demand […] Due to management’s meaningful opex reduction over the past year, combined with overall working capital efficiencies, we believe the company can now add $600 million to $1 billion of inventory to its balance sheet if it maintains conviction that, ultimately, there will be demand for its BB10 devices. We estimate that would equate to about 2.5 million to 4 million devices, or one to two months’ worth of production.
Faucette thinks BlackBerry might be following a precedent it set up with the "PlayBook" tablet computer, released in 2011, when it produced more units than it could sell:
If BlackBerry were to choose to continue to run its manufacturing at full tilt despite building resis- tance in distribution channels and, instead, put the manufactured inventory on its balance sheet, it would not be the first time it had elected to pursue that path. When the company launched the BlackBerry Playbook in April 2011, the product was universally judged to be a little immature for primetime and probably overpriced given the competitors and feature set. From the beginning, we found lackluster demand for the product. However, BlackBerry continued production at full tilt (and may have even raised production early in the product life cycle). Along the way, inventory accumulated at retailers, and BlackBerry, itself, took on a lot of the inventory increase. In the May 2011 quarter, total inventory increased by nearly $330 million, and then by another nearly $430 million in the August 2011 quarter, to bring total inventory to $1.37 billion (prior to the PlayBook launch, the company had typically been running total inven- tory in the $550 million to $650 million range). During the November 2011 quarter, the company stopped production of the PlayBook and took a $485 million write-down of PlayBook inventory. From the initial launch, BlackBerry claimed to have shipped about 850,000 tablets through the November 2011 quarter, but the inventory in- crease (before the write-down) would indicate that it accumulated about 2 million PlayBook devices through the November 2011 quarter. All told, BlackBerry manufactured about 3 million units in roughly six months’ time, then canceled all production in very short order. Since the April 2011 launch, BlackBerry management has reported to have shipped about 2.25 million devices (through the February 2013 quarter), which also means that the company has proven itself will- ing to continue to ship products from its own inventory years after production had been halted (and it could have enough PlayBooks still on hand to keep shipping out old inventory for another year or so).

[ItsTheBox]

They are trying. From barrons

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are up 46 cents, or 3%, at $16, as the company heads toward its BlackBerry Live user conference in Orlando, Florida this week, starting with a keynote tomorrow morning by CEO Thorsten Heins.
The Street today offered multiple preview notes to clients regarding where the company is at and what to expect this week. (My own piece about the company is in this week's Barron's print magazine.)
RBC Capital Markets's Mark Sue reiterates a Sector Perform rating on the shares, and an $18 price target, writing that "Our checks suggest BlackBerry Q10 sell-through in Canada and the U.K. remains healthy though subsiding from the launch rush two weeks ago," referring to the handset based on BlackBerry's BB10 operating system that has a hardware keyboard.
"In the UK, the Q10 is now listed as #10 on Carphone Warehouse’s top monthly phones list. Less than 5% of stores we contacted in Canada and the U.K. last week were sold out," he adds.
Sales of Q10, and other BB10 handsets, are going into a "depleted" sales channel, he notes:
In light of depleted BlackBerry channel inventory, we believe BB10 channel fill will help drive BB10 shipments Q1/Q2. BlackBerry is expanding Z10 distribution from ~10 countries Q4/F13 to more than 70+ in 1-2 quarters. Early U.S. checks show some decent interest.
Sue sees a prospect for enterprise adoption of the BB10 devices, something he expects to be a focus this week:
BYOD headwinds may be difficult to ignore as Apple, Samsung and others improve their enterprise security offerings. We expect enterprise BB10 sell-through to build over the coming months, particularly after mid-June availability of BES10 SMS/ PIN archiving […] Enterprise Focus at BlackBerry Live This Week. At BlackBerry Live in Orlando, we expect the focus to be on the enterprise and expect details on the pending BES10 update (merges BES5.x and Fusion into BES10), pricing of new value-add services (like mobile device management for Android and iOS), and new features for BB10. We’re not expecting new BB10 smartphones to join the Z10 and Q10 until later in the fall.
UBS's Amitabh Passi reiterates a Neutral rating and a $13 price target, writing that he's skeptical of the company's chances in the face of competition from Samsung Electronics (005930KS) and others:
As we have written recently, there is likely an upward bias to estimates for the next quarter or so primarily from channel fill and some pent-up demand. Beyond that, we have seen little from Blackberry to inspire confidence in a turnaround in a hyper-competitive industry and formidable competitors including Samsung, Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Huawei, amongst others, with significantly more resources. BBRY remains a single-product company, with limited sustainable differentiation, no multi-screen strategy, and no compelling content ecosystem.
Evercore Partners's Mark McKechnie reiterates an Underweight rating on the shares, and an $8 price target, writing that he expects "volatility around the event as the company will likely provide a positive update on early adoption of its new Z10 and Q10 products."
McKechnie expects comments from Heins and others about the trend for Q10 and Z10 sales, and also further details on the "BlackBerry Enteprise Service" management software for mobile devices:
Look for any comments from the CEO on the magnitude of the sell-in – we forecast 3.5M BB10 devices in the May quarter and 3.3M in the August quarter, generally in-line with consensus. CEO has set expectations for “tens of millions” of BB10 devices sold this year versus our FY14 (January) forecast of 13M. We look for incremental commentary around developer support for BB10 – as of the end of March, the company boasted. 100K BB10 apps, 60 carriers, and 4,600 enterprises in North America that had registered for the BB10 ready program. We will watch closely for commentary regarding BBRY’s open service platform which will support Android and iOS in addition to BBRY products. Our industry checks suggest limited support from Android (particularly Samsung) for BBRY’s open services platform – namely Samsung is not releasing APIs to BBRY whom they see as a competitor, but is rather partnered with more “open” MDM players including AirWatch, Mobile Iron, and CTXS via its Zenprise acquisition. Look for the roll-out of a BES10 platform in the coming months that supports legacy BB7 products --- we view the current BES10 platform as limited in scope as it does not yet offer backward compatibility for BB7 – thus to support BB10 devices, IT managers need to deploy a brand new server (virtual or appliance) in addition to their legacy BES services.
Pacific Crest's James Faucette reiterates an Underperform rating on the stock, writing that in contrast to Sue's contention that a depleted sales channel is ready for inventory, the channel may not be ready, and BlackBerry itself may be taking on inventory:
After having needed two years to re- duce channel inventory of BlackBerry devices, we believe that distributors, retailers and carriers may be a little less willing to take on large levels of inventory in excess of sell- through demand […] Due to management’s meaningful opex reduction over the past year, combined with overall working capital efficiencies, we believe the company can now add $600 million to $1 billion of inventory to its balance sheet if it maintains conviction that, ultimately, there will be demand for its BB10 devices. We estimate that would equate to about 2.5 million to 4 million devices, or one to two months’ worth of production.
Faucette thinks BlackBerry might be following a precedent it set up with the "PlayBook" tablet computer, released in 2011, when it produced more units than it could sell:
If BlackBerry were to choose to continue to run its manufacturing at full tilt despite building resis- tance in distribution channels and, instead, put the manufactured inventory on its balance sheet, it would not be the first time it had elected to pursue that path. When the company launched the BlackBerry Playbook in April 2011, the product was universally judged to be a little immature for primetime and probably overpriced given the competitors and feature set. From the beginning, we found lackluster demand for the product. However, BlackBerry continued production at full tilt (and may have even raised production early in the product life cycle). Along the way, inventory accumulated at retailers, and BlackBerry, itself, took on a lot of the inventory increase. In the May 2011 quarter, total inventory increased by nearly $330 million, and then by another nearly $430 million in the August 2011 quarter, to bring total inventory to $1.37 billion (prior to the PlayBook launch, the company had typically been running total inven- tory in the $550 million to $650 million range). During the November 2011 quarter, the company stopped production of the PlayBook and took a $485 million write-down of PlayBook inventory. From the initial launch, BlackBerry claimed to have shipped about 850,000 tablets through the November 2011 quarter, but the inventory in- crease (before the write-down) would indicate that it accumulated about 2 million PlayBook devices through the November 2011 quarter. All told, BlackBerry manufactured about 3 million units in roughly six months’ time, then canceled all production in very short order. Since the April 2011 launch, BlackBerry management has reported to have shipped about 2.25 million devices (through the February 2013 quarter), which also means that the company has proven itself will- ing to continue to ship products from its own inventory years after production had been halted (and it could have enough PlayBooks still on hand to keep shipping out old inventory for another year or so).

Trying hard arent they

[Superfly_FR]

$100 ? nope ... 101 !!!

Nite guys, gotta go ... dancing on the bears.

[greggebhardt]

I should have listened to Morgan and got in when it was in the 15.76 range.

[rebekahlynnharrison]

That's fantastic. Thanks yet again. I'm just a small blip on the radar when it comes to amount in my account so not sure if I'd be able to access that but I'll look deeper and see. There's lots of area's I haven't visited on the RBC site out of sheer ignorance of not knowing what they mean or do.

As always, myself and others look forward to reading what you post. Always educational, informative, and helpful.

Streaming level 2 quotes are thru the dashboard tab in the trade hub part of RBC direct invest.
The level 2 quotes on the basic stock quote page does not show streaming orders.
The stream level 2 on the dashboard are minus the 'player names' lol, but does help immensely.
ie: if the orders are much more on one side or the other, lets you know that there's a better price to be had (buy/sell wise)
That has helped me many times in my buying so I can get in on the best low for my target range.

[Kid Vibe]

Happy Monday everyone,

Glad to see the stock moving up (although this seems to be strictly on hype for now). I re-bought shares to trade last Friday and am looking at a small sell off at the high 16's. I am completely maxed out, (besides the money I set aside for Japan that is!). So lets go BB! I've been keeping up to date on the news, especially their marketing team and I am glad to see that they are making a push to gain public awareness. It is going to take a little longer for the Q10 to get the recognition it deserves in my opinion, but it will get there. Some of my friends have bought one and love it already.

Here is a small list of some of the partnerships/sponsorship's BB has done thus far.

Manulife Classic Golf Tournament
Mercedes
Barclay Centre (Home of the Brooklyn Nets)
Sports Centre (Canadian Sports Broadcast)
Grazia Fashion Talent Search
NHL
Entire Alicia Keys Tour, Music Videos, etc.

I personally hope BB finds some sort of sponsorship with the NFL... That would give a boost to American awareness.

I also read in an article that BB was one of the top mobile companies this quarter for appearing in print magazines...
http://mashable.com/2013/04/14/techn...e-advertising/

Also, an interesting note. Apple is rumored to be releasing the 5S in September. This is particularly good for BB as they may be able to sway even more iPhone users away. Also, it is the 5S (not a 6) so upgrades may be minimal.

I personally don't think we will get the push we need until we have some numbers. Everything thus far that has been generated by hype/speculation seems to be brought down. Lets hope for some numbers this weekend that will help investors. I personally do not want a short squeeze anytime soon. Infact, I don't want to see one until we are in the 20's (I don't mind if that happens to take a few months!). I've held on this stock for a few months now and I don't want the general public to jump on until much later in the game, driving it up even further.

[cjcampbell]

Streaming level 2 quotes are thru the dashboard tab in the trade hub part of RBC direct invest.
The level 2 quotes on the basic stock quote page does not show streaming orders.
The stream level 2 on the dashboard are minus the 'player names' lol, but does help immensely.
ie: if the orders are much more on one side or the other, lets you know that there's a better price to be had (buy/sell wise)
That has helped me many times in my buying so I can get in on the best low for my target range.

Thanks Rebekah. That's awesome. Great information!!!

[BB_Trader]

I personally don't think we will get the push we need until we have some numbers. Everything thus far that has been generated by hype/speculation seems to be brought down. Lets hope for some numbers this weekend that will help investors. I personally do not want a short squeeze anytime soon. Infact, I don't want to see one until we are in the 20's (I don't mind if that happens to take a few months!). I've held on this stock for a few months now and I don't the general public to jump on until much later in the game, driving it up even further.

Exactly, well said! I expect to see a sell off today. I can't see holding this overnight. When Heinz speaks for the first time tomorrow this will set the course for BB until the next Q report. Enough of the fluff comments, bring on real numbers.

[Bugmapper]

I should have listened to Morgan and got in when it was in the 15.76 range.

Am I the only person here that is really creeped out by greggebhardt's avatar? I mean, I like cats and everything but I can't take my eyes off that one for fear it will do something to me!

[VeGiTo]

You guys need to stop setting yourselves up for disappointment. They probably won't release hard numbers tomorrow. BB Live is about products, services, and their strategic vision. Thor doesn't care what happens to your stock price between now and June, and you shouldn't neither - he is working on a 5-10 years timeframe. Invest in this company for the long term, sit back and ride the biggest comeback of the decade.

[AngryEdmontonian]

Exactly, well said! I expect to see a sell off today. I can't see holding this overnight. When Heinz speaks for the first time tomorrow this will set the course for BB until the next Q report. Enough of the fluff comments, bring on real numbers.

The best parts of your comments are regarding "showing real numbers/facts". When in the last 8 months have the bears/shorts provided ANYTHING of fact? Yet they claim their side tells the whole story?

You were wrong on Thursday, very wrong on Friday, are we going for 3 for 3? Regardless even if a close of $15.99, I'm sure you'll be claiming you were correct anyway.