[kfh227]

Well, everyone has their own vision of the future.

As we stand now, the market is broken up into 3 segments

1) PC/Laptops
2) Tablets
3) Smartphones/Cellphones

BlackBerry envisions 1 and 2 being pulled along into 3. After all, we have been moving towards being more and more portable.
What the AMD exec seems to be saying, is that tablets will disappear because PC/Laptops will reemerge as the winner. (Microsoft has been trying to do this with it's new Windows 8 platform where it's design focuses on the touch screen aspect (which is one thing of WIndows 8 that most of us have come to hate).

So really, it's not about all the execs agreeing. Everyone just has their own vision of the future and that is how they steer the company in their direction to achieve this "vision".

Technology is just moving so quickly that it's really hard to predict what the next big thing will be. Who knows, maybe one day you will be able to fit a CPU and GPU that is fast enough and efficient enough into a smartphone (no bigger than the phones we currently have), and be able to play Battlefield 4 or Starcraft III, or whatever high graphics intensive games will come out in the future. OR maybe we've hit the plateau in CPU and GPU technology and we will shift towards PC-tablet hybrids.

Pcs will always be a round due to horsepower. But over time, consumers will care less and less.

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

Interesting read on Bes 10

http://m.barrons.com/articles/a/SB50...g=reno-barrons

The site says "Page no longer available ". They must have pulled it as it didn't slam and degrade BlackBerry enough?

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

The page is no longer available.

This

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

The site says "Page no longer available ". They must have pulled it as it didn't slam and degrade BlackBerry enough?

Posted via CB10

They are going to try their hardest to drive it down this week.

[Charles Martin1]

I'm starting to think we need to have a "Troll of the week award". The decision would likely be quite easy, since we seem to have a new Troll appearing every week

Nah, once it's clear that they're a troll just completely ignore them. They hate that most.

[ontariocanada]

http://m.barrons.com/articles/a/SB50...g=reno-barrons

BlackBerry's Plan B: The Network

By TIERNAN RAY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Can BlackBerry expand its vaunted secure network to manage iPhones and Android smartphones? Perhaps, but the competition is heating up.

When the iPhone made its debut in 2007, more than one otherwise sharp-eyed investor told me Apple's gadget would never storm the corporate world. Road warriors loved their BlackBerrys, and the corporate information-technology folks loved the software they purchased from BlackBerry-maker Research In Motion.

RIM, in other words, was IT's friend.

Fast-forward six years, and smartphones have become wildly popular among consumers—emphasis on "consumer." Individual users, exercising personal preference, dumped BlackBerrys in droves for Apple (ticker: AAPL) iPhones and smartphones based on Google's (GOOG) Android operating system.

Not only did Research In Motion, now called BlackBerry (BBRY), lose sales and market share, but corporations found other software aside from BlackBerry's to manage all the new handsets coming in the door every morning.

As BlackBerry seeks to revive its franchise with new handset models—the Z10 and Q10—the company is moving on a second front, trying to restore its prominence in corporate-IT software. The stock's few bulls say a renaissance in BlackBerry Enterprise Server, or BES, software could lead to a rise in the shares, from a recent $15.54 to the low $20s or even $30 in the coming twelve months.

AT ITS BLACKBERRY WORLD user event this week, the company is expected to talk up the latest version of its IT software, BES 10, which manages not only BlackBerrys, but iPhones, and Android devices from Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea) and others. This year BlackBerry is expected to get about a third of its $13 billion in forecast revenue from mobile-device network services.

It's an uphill slog for BlackBerry. Good Technology, of Sunnyvale, Calif., is widely regarded as the market leader. Other competitors include AirWatch and MobileIron.

According to Gartner, the cross-platform mobile-device management market was probably $784 million last year. That could rise to more than $1.3 billion this year.

But the biggest prize is management of all corporate computing, as more of it goes mobile. "We're at phase 1.0 of this enterprise mobile platform," says Chris Curran, chief technologist with the advisory practice of PricewaterhouseCoopers. "The goal is being the future platform for corporate mobile applications."

For the moment, Good and the rest are simply trying to help IT managers deal with some basic problems: Employees show up at work with smartphones or tablets they bought, replete with gaming and Facebook applications, and expect to use business e-mail and documents on the devices, potentially exposing their employers to risk.

The challenge for BES software is that it hasn't established a name for itself managing anything other than a BlackBerry. "You shouldn't count BlackBerry as part of mobile-device management because they have no market share yet," says Phil Redman, who follows the market for Gartner. By that he means that today BlackBerry's service revenue comes entirely from managing BlackBerry devices.

Start-up AirWatch has 6,500 customers running all manner of devices, and the company has raised $200 million in venture capital. It is valued in the private market at more than $1 billion.

Chairman Alan Dabbiere says the BES offering falls short of capabilities needed to securely manage Apple iOS and Google Android devices, including FIPS 140, a standard for encryption. "They are woefully behind on iOS and Android, because they can't do these things," he says.

MobileIron claims 4,500 customers and has $100 million in financing. It says three of the world's top five retailers are using its technology. Says CEO Bob Tinker, "There is not an incumbent yet in this market." BlackBerry and Citrix Systems (CTXS), he says, are "trying to bolt on an appendage" onto existing software.

One possible problem for BlackBerry is that its platform might not even be considered by some companies because its smartphones are in decline.

One the other hand, BlackBerry can still boast of something unique: Its "network operations center," or NOC, is a dedicated private network whose vaunted security has for years been the crown jewel of BlackBerry e-mail.

Users of BES and the NOC, points out BlackBerry enterprise head Peter Devenyi, are able to effectively lock down all devices, including iPhone and Android, to a single communications "port." That can vastly reduce the number of back doors that make devices vulnerable to hacking.

BLACKBERRY IS MAKING concessions to woo companies, giving away the BES software for free, while waiving the network fee for BlackBerry users who upgrade to BlackBerry 10 devices through the end of this year.

The BES software has garnered some prominent early customers, including Skadden, Arps and 20th Century Fox, and 4,600 companies are evaluating the software.

If even a fraction of enterprises take up BES and the NOC, bulls think it could boost the stock.

Peter Misek, who follows BlackBerry for Jefferies & Co., and rates its shares Buy, doesn't expect BlackBerry will win the smartphone wars. But with perhaps 500 million corporate users of email on mobile devices, worldwide, Misek reasons that if just 10% of them were to take up BlackBerry's offer to use the NOC, and if each one paid $100 per year, the result would be a steady $5 billion in revenue for BlackBerry annually.

Put a 42% operating margin on that, and you could be looking at $2.50 per share in earnings, for a stock worth $30 at a P/E multiple of 12. With a steady $5 billion in security revenue, BlackBerry could be attractive to an acquirer, he thinks. For example, Misek speculates that Microsoft might want to boost its standing in mobile by buying the company.

We may know more soon about what a mobile device management stock is worth. The Wall Street Journal reported in March that Good has met with bankers to discuss a public offering that could value the company at $1 billion.

For the moment, BlackBerry shares will trade based on the market's perception of how the Z10 and Q10, and forthcoming models, sell. But the embedded value of the network is worth keeping an eye on.

In an increasingly complex mobile world, that network is an asset that will likely continue to represent real value.

[take99]

This

Posted via CB10

Still works for me

[kfh227]

All this I can talk... what would happen if a big investor decided to take a 5% stake in terms of shorts?

My thought is, what happens when 100% of the stock is held by institutions plus "controlled" by shorts?

Probably nothing but curious if I should ponder about this. I think the answer is nothing happens but I was wondering if anyone has thought about this?

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

All this I can talk... what would happen if a big investor decided to take a 5% stake in terms of shorts?

My thought is, what happens when 100% of the stock is held by institutions plus "controlled" by shorts?

Probably nothing but curious if I should ponder about this. I think the answer is nothing happens but I was wondering if anyone has thought about this?

Posted via CB10

how would they acquire individual investor shares?

[kfh227]

Still works for me

Did you use the posted link? Web browser not caching?


Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

how would they acquire individual investor shares?

Same way they always do. They borrow them.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Cleared my cache, clicked link and it works. Dunno whats happening for everyone else but someone nicely posted the content anyway.

Did you use the posted link? Web browser not caching?


Posted via CB10

[take99]

Interesting chart of course take with a grain of salt

Mobile Analytics

[q649]

My cousins brother on law used to play professional hockey in Europe. His calves were as big as my upper legs.

Posted via CB10

I'm hoping you were just estimating and didn't actually compare after a few drinks.

[q649]

All this I can talk... what would happen if a big investor decided to take a 5% stake in terms of shorts?

My thought is, what happens when 100% of the stock is held by institutions plus "controlled" by shorts?

Probably nothing but curious if I should ponder about this. I think the answer is nothing happens but I was wondering if anyone has thought about this?

Posted via CB10

This is pretty to easy to answer. Take a look at the famous Volkswagen short squeeze, wasn't quite 100% owned by institutions, But pretty darn close. For a few minutes it ended up being the most valuable company in the world, if my memory serves me correctly.

[kfh227]

This is pretty to easy to answer. Take a look at the famous Volkswagen short squeeze, wasn't quite 100% owned by institutions, But pretty darn close. For a few minutes it ended up being the most valuable company in the world, if my memory serves me correctly.

Those with options, have those limit orders in!


Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Would you mind explaining (well summarizing) how to read the charts and what they mean ?

CDM76!

First of all, the premise for charting is to achieve two things, we try to understand what drove the stock, whether it is news, or, the programmed buy/sells of large funds etc.. BBRY is a prominent stock in the investment world and it has fundamental analysts who set price targets for the coming 12 months based upon the expectations for EPS, growth and their competition. The best form of news comes from the company itself who reports 4 quarters of results, a annual general meeting and contract signing, changes to the company etc... The secondary news is derived from the competition, this often adversely affects the companies as good news for them is bad for another. All of this news really occurs a dozen of so times a year so what happens to the stock on a daily basis? The stock trades in a vacuum of little influence and so Technical Analysis takes over and drives the stock price.

The first chart is that of BBRY over the past 2-years:



If you look at the stock, you will see periods of time where the stock actually looks like it is trying to follow a straight line. The problem for TA is to figure out where that straight line is. The farther back in time you go, the less it matters to a TA analyst, but it is worthwhile trying to figure out what the stock was doing to sharpen your TA skills. I drew some lines to give a definition of what the stock was following over that period.

The steep leg down appears to be a controlled attempt to drive the stock down over time and as you can see, the severity of the fall lessened over the final months as it began to level out. The second defined lines show us that a controlled basing took place in the stock and in fact, we did finally hit bottom and move sideways for a period of time. Finally, the third stage shows us that the stock began to rise again in a very controlled way to where we are today. All of the vertical lines in this chart represent one week worth of trading. In looking at a single line we are able to shut out the noise of day to day nonsense with the stock. I drew a line across the recent high, or 52 week high for the stock and if you look to the left, you will see a period when the stock was dropping but paused there too. And so when we talk about the price of the stock being important at this level, we do so because of how it reacted back then too. If we manage to rally above the recent 52 week high, we will also be breaking out of a 2012 high as well and this is important. I'll explain that later.

Next is the more recent chart which all of us here are so tuned into:



Why are we so excited about this chart? It shows us quite clearly, the extreme highs and lows of trading in the stock, on a daily basis. We have the stock clearly making lower highs, and higher lows, this is a battle between the bulls and the bears and it can only go on for so long before the stock stops trading. Only one side is going to win the battle here, but in order to win, with the kind of money we are talking about here, one side has to throw in the towel and accept that they were wrong. The side that does this first results in them unwinding their position to the benefit of the other challenger. Within this chart I show some lines that TA specialists look for. We always start with the outside, extreme lines which in this case, we call a Pennant or sometimes a Flag Formation, the blue lines. The rest of the lines are more creative because we don't know any more than anyone else does as to what the computer driven programs are doing, nor, the Funds. We try to guess where the stock can go based upon probability and the art of TA. When a trade looks like something in the past, and as a result, it behaves like that trade many times over, we can suggest that it will occur again. The probability of the stock rising up and out of a Pennant Formation like this one is "75% of the time". This is a mathematical consequence of our research. The two circles are related to the RSI (Relative Strength Index) which is another TA indicator that suggests the stock will have another point of exhaustion if it gets into the range of RSI = 70 or above. So you watch for this indicator to see if it is above RSI = 70 (over-bought) or RSI = 30 (over-sold) and trade accordingly. The green lines show you what I'm thinking, meaning that there is little to go on in terms of probability here, except my "feeling" of what is developing in the short term. I was able to predict the trading range for this past Friday based on this guess alone. Is it weak, you bet, did it produce some good results, it shore did, it means we are getting closer to knowing what will come next! Green is for "go" as in up here, I think the stock is set to rally to $ 17.50/shr before it pauses to refresh. The disciplined reason for this guess is that RSI will be well into the RSI = 70 area which TA tells me is major resistance.

The final chart is the same period with a indicator called the Bollinger Bands. I wrote my dissertation on the BB's so I know a little about that indicator! The BB is a really cool indicator that takes the 22 day moving average and plots the stock inside the boundaries of the average to two standard deviations of the norm (2 SD's = 95% probability or high correlation here). Hard to believe it but the accuracy of this indicator is amazing.



This chart shows us that the extreme trading range narrowed, the daily volume (black line below), dropped off markedly and the bans which are those snake-like lines tracking the top/bottom of the stock, narrowed too. The broken line in the middle represents a bullish move when the stock is above it and the stock is said to be bearish when the stock price is below it. The green lines are the narrowing of the indicator and the small circle is the stock hitting up against the top of the 22-daily average and about to do something it rarely ever does, exit the BB lines. Remember, all stocks stay inside the BB's 95% of the time, when a stock moves outside the BB's it can only stay outside for a very short time. There are only two ways to resolve this issue and that is for the BB's to expand and capture the stock price again or for the stock to fall back into the BB's. We saw the second choice as the stock was only outside the bands for one day. The stock held above the center broken line and set us up for another rally.

Based upon all of this, I would have to limit my targets to a breakout of the stock to the upside (75%), a rally to RSI = 85 (over-bought), or $ 17.50/shr on this next move. We could test the 52 week high if we can pause in the $ 17.00's and mark some time for a month or so. The BB's show us that a target of only $ 16.50 exists but that band will expand to handle the $ 17.50 this time around. Everything is in place for a major pop here but only to $ 17.50/shr unless the news out of Florida is so good that the bears need to cover. In order to see this rally, the volume would have to start raising again, we would have to close and stay above the $ 15.60/shr area (Pennant Line) for at least 2 more days and we would need to take out the recent high of $ 16.59/shr. That's it for now! Please know that TA actually is far more detailed and complex then this brief review. If I included "candles" and many other indicators, I'm sure many here would run for the hills. LOL

[Komoto]

M8 I enjoyed that read.

Question: isn't TA self fulfilling, the more people that use it the more the stock behaves that way? Because everyone is using the same rules?

Eg why can't it stay out of the bolinger bands for ling? Is it because everyone is expecting this so they will trade accordingly. Kindof like heisenbergs uncertainty principle.

As you interact with the experiment you change the results.

I would imagine the jumps in stock price are not modeled by TA? They are purely news driven? I remember my professor trying to teach us jump diffusion modelling...

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

I stumbled upon this research report dated: April 24th 2013 - his target price is $ 12.00/CDN:

Despite BlackBerry's early success, others have flown past the company in the smartphone race.

Brian Colello, CPASenior Stock Analyst4/24/13


BlackBerry was once a high-flying smartphone maker, but we believe an inability to sustain its technological advantages and develop adequate switching costs around its BlackBerry handsets has led to the firm's recent demise. We see virtually no scenario where BlackBerry will re-emerge as a smartphone industry titan; the question remains whether the company can develop a sustainable business as a leaner, meaner firm. Ultimately, we currently view an investment in BlackBerry as a lottery ticket; if the firm can gain meaningful traction in the smartphone market with its BlackBerry 10 operating system and continue to earn high-margin services revenue from both BB10 and older BB7 users, its shares could be wildly undervalued today. However, we continue to have little faith that this scenario will play out; instead, we foresee the company emerging as a niche player that manages to barely break even over the next few years.

BlackBerry became successful in the handset market in the 2000s thanks to its popular line of BlackBerry devices, which became the mobile phones of choice in the enterprise market as they gave corporations the ability to securely transmit email and data to mobile users. In addition to hardware revenue, BlackBerry also collects service revenue from subscribers. Wireless carriers collect data from each customer's phone but pass it along to BB's network operating centers for data processing. By taking this processing off the carriers' hands, BB collects a fee from each carrier. BB also sells enterprise software, most of which allows corporations to better manage the various BlackBerry devices used within their companies. Although some of BB's software, such as Mobile Fusion, allows corporations to manage iPhones and Android devices as well, much of BB's non-hardware revenue is still tied to BlackBerry device usage.

Despite BlackBerry's early success, companies like Apple AAPL and Samsung have flown past it in the smartphone race, and we doubt the firm will ever be able to fully recover. We view the BB10 operating system as interesting and different, but too little, too late in terms of attracting hundreds of millions of new smartphone users from iOS or Android without competing on price. On the low end, Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE appear to have a cost advantage over BB and are developing $100 (unsubsidized) Android phones that will be compelling alternatives for cost-conscious smartphone buyers, especially in emerging markets where we expect most of the industry's growth during the next few years. Although BB10 devices are priced at the high end today, we anticipate that limited adoption will force BlackBerry to focus on the highly competitive midtier of the smartphone market in the $300-$400 price range. We see intense competition from desperate handset makers like Nokia NOK, LG, and HTC making life even more difficult for BlackBerry in this tier of the market.

Ultimately, we anticipate that BB will be relegated to a niche in the smartphone market. We expect BB to still sell some BB10 devices to enterprise customers (mostly in developed markets) that value topnotch security, as well as hang on to a loyal group of nonenterprise customers (such as those who love physical keyboards). In turn, BB10 may have some developer interest in terms of apps, but we doubt the firm's app store and ecosystem will ever mirror the robust ecosystems developed by iOS and Android. Much of BB's recent device sales into emerging markets have come from lower-priced BB7 devices, and we anticipate that sales in these regions will plummet, not only because of a focus on higher-priced BB10 devices, but also due to the flood of lower-priced Android phones sold today.

We view an investment in BlackBerry as highly risky. If BB10 sales are unable to exceed an already-low bar, we see little value for the company beyond its patents and cash on hand. However, strong BB10 sales at healthy ASPs could quickly bring the firm back to profitability. Meanwhile, the success or failure of BB's high-margin services business adds another layer of complexity and risk to the bottom line. We anticipate that the lucrative BB7 subscriber base has generated most of BlackBerry's operating profits in recent years, but this revenue stream should fall sharply over the next few years, as customers either shift to BB10 or defect the ecosystem altogether. BB doesn't expect the same levels of service revenue per customer from BB10, so even strong BB10 device sales may not pay off for the firm if service fees on such customers are minimal. We recognize that BB10 devices sales will probably drive headlines for the firm in the next few quarters, but we think it will be the company's ability to retain BB7 subscribers and/or generate somewhat similar fees on BB10 subscribers that may ultimately determine returns on capital in the years ahead.



Bulls Say
•We believe wireless carriers are concerned about the emerging smartphone operating system duopoly between Apple and Android and are hoping that a third ecosystem such as BlackBerry's can emerge.


Bears Say
•BB's share has steadily declined as Apple, Samsung, and others have surpassed it in the smartphone market.

[take99]

Ok I can live with a bear case presented fairly professionally, the stock is of course risky but no risk no reward right?
Depends on who their clientele are which can drive the slant of an analysis like this.

[crackerdoodle]

QNX: Life beyond QWERTY

Michael Kane, Anchor
2:53 PM, E.T. | February 27, 2013
AA Share on email Follow this
I am a third generation BellCanada employee. My father had the extraordinary physical stamina to stand on tiny spurs at the top of a two-storey-high telephone pole, calmly splicing cables in a raging blizzard. His father had an odd knack of being able to listen to a faulty phone line and tell with great accuracy where the break in the cable was occurring.

My trick? I can see into the future.

Let me pull together some evidence that may take us past the sometimes tiresome "BlackBerry versus iPhone" debate, which, to me feels more and more like "chocolate versus peanut butter"… or "less filling" versus "tastes great" (ancient Miller Lite TV ad reference).

When Research In Motion Ltd. progressed to the next level of management, taking day-to-day operations out of the hands of inventor Mike Lazaridis and chartered accountant Jim Balsillie, an amazing transformation was underway - not just at RIM but at the other communications companies in Canada as well.The light bulb went on for me when I heard that the man who envisioned the first BlackBerry would donate tens of millions of dollars to establish the Mike and Ophelia Quantum-Nano Centre at the University of Waterloo.

Here's an idea: put about 400 research scientists in a room and then start dreaming about what they could come up with.

When BlackBerry Chief Executive Thorsten Heins came to the BNN newsroom to talk up the BlackBerry Z10, the day it launched in Canada, I spoke with one of his flotilla of accompanying vice-presidents. I needed to look through a telescope to the future. "QNX" he said.

The clouds parted as I realized BlackBerry is now a technology company that happens to sell phones.

Founded in 1980, QNX Software Systems Ltd. is an Ottawa company that, like BlackBerry, has its roots in engineering minds coming out of the University of Waterloo. It would turn out to be a logical acquisition for Research In Motion in early 2010. A news release that caught my eye recently explained that QNX would show its latest technology at a show called Embedded World 2013 in Nuremberg, Germany. The news release was written in English but I understood none of it. There's a clue.

BlackBerry is a technology company. And how does this affect me, beyond the fact that someday I might want to actually own a BlackBerry? An estimated 60 per cent of the software in all cars and trucks runs on QNX technology.

Now we're getting somewhere. Sure, the phones are very important. But nearsightedness led to so many people referring to the Z10 as a "make or break" development. I do not share that view. Importantly, investors have to be able to relate to BlackBerry as something beyond a phone maker if they are going to risk their money.

Telus Corporation and Rogers Communications have recently announced acquisitions or strategies that make them much more than phone providers, too. I'll cover them in my next two blogs.

Phones. Quaint. Something from my grandfather's era.

[crackerdoodle]

TELUS: About technology

Michael Kane, Anchor
1:15 PM, E.T. | April 23, 2013
Canadian, Technology
AA Share on email Follow this
This is the second in a series of blogs in which I will try to give some insight into companies that I feel are more than what they appear to be on the surface. As I stated in the first blog - about BlackBerry's (BB-T 15.71 0.22 1.42%) QNX technology click here - companies that are classified as telecoms on the stock market may actually be seen as technology companies that just happen to be in the phone business.

Indeed, in Rogers Communications' (RCI.B-T 49.52 0.00 0.00%) first-quarter 2013 earnings report, the company noted that in the wireless unit - which includes cellphones - 45 percent of the revenue came not from voice, but data.

In the case of TELUS Corporation (T-T 37.51 0.34 0.91%), the transition of the communications business has come through acquisition and begins with its roots as Alberta Government Telephone. TELUS Corporation came into being in 1990, five years before it acquired Edmonton Telephone - ED Tel - setting the stage for a merger with BC Telecom in 1998.

A step up in wireless technology came with the acquisition of Clearnet in October of 2000 and then the road map became much clearer. TELUS took over Quebec Tel along with technology held by AXXENT in that province. Then came internet and network services provider PSINet, e-business company Daedalian, IT infrastructure company Argana Technologies and videoconferencing provider ADCOM - all supporting the company's telecom and internet ambitions.

But it was in 2007, with the acquisition of Emergis to become a leading electronic healthcare technology provider, that TELUS took a bold step to broaden the horizon.

Investors began to show significant confidence in the company after the stock bottomed-out on April 30, 2009 at $29.15 per share. Since then, TELUS' stock chart looks like an escalator. In February 2013, TELUS Health announced plans to acquire PS Suite Electronic Medical Records making the company a leader in tools supporting evidence-based medical care.

This is where the light bulb went on for me in the way it did upon hearing that the inventor of the BlackBerry would donate tens of million to open The Mike and Ophelia Lazaridis Quantum-Nano Centre at the University of Waterloo. This is not just a news item. This is the future.

Evidence-based medicine is in its infancy, and TELUS Corporation is in on the ground floor - something that some investors will recognize as a major step beyond just phone service.

EBM is based on the concept that the collection and correlation of huge - and I mean huge - amounts of data can improve the quality of health care in ways that are as yet unmeasured. Imagine if every health care provider, doctor's office and piece of data-collection equipment were hooked up to a central server, feeding in age, gender, blood pressure, glucose, cholesterol, fat content and countless other measures of a person's physique. Billions of bits of data being collected and filed in real time would provide medical professionals with unprecedented profile accuracy with which to make a diagnosis. Evidence-based medicine is here, now.

Playing into my interest in EBM were comments by Lazaridis that he would like to take research at the Quantum-Nano Centre in directions that are now just science fiction. He alluded to a piece of medical scanning equipment used in Star Trek. The tricorder supposedly utilized technology that we now have, called "near-field communication". The ship's doctor could take medical readings of crewmembers on the USS Enterprise simply by waving the tricorder over their bodies - similar to tap-and-go payment technology we now have at our gas pumps. Lazaridis and others are connecting the dots.

With TELUS carving out a unique niche that will increasingly be useful to an aging population, and with BlackBerry's QNX unit revolutionizing automotive technology, I am somewhat amused at how we're stuck at counting phones. Important to be sure, but I would like someone to discuss with me how we can evaluate and ultimately monetize the true value of the underlying technology these widely-held companies are developing.

I could put my money there.

[take99]

So trying to recall my statistical training Morgan. When you draw the pennant line, arent you using 'outlier' or not normally distributed data to form the pennant? Wouldn't a narrower pennant provide a more statistically reliable outcome?

[spiller]

CDM76!

First of all, the premise for charting is to achieve two things, we try to understand what drove the stock, whether it is news, or, the programmed buy/sells of large funds etc.. BBRY is a prominent stock in the investment world and it has fundamental analysts who set price targets for the coming 12 months based upon the expectations for EPS, growth and their competition. The best form of news comes from the company itself who reports 4 quarters of results, a annual general meeting and contract signing, changes to the company etc... The secondary news is derived from the competition, this often adversely affects the companies as good news for them is bad for another. All of this news really occurs a dozen of so times a year so what happens to the stock on a daily basis? The stock trades in a vacuum of little influence and so Technical Analysis takes over and drives the stock price.

The first chart is that of BBRY over the past 2-years:



If you look at the stock, you will see periods of time where the stock actually looks like it is trying to follow a straight line. The problem for TA is to figure out where that straight line is. The farther back in time you go, the less it matters to a TA analyst, but it is worthwhile trying to figure out what the stock was doing to sharpen your TA skills. I drew some lines to give a definition of what the stock was following over that period.

The steep leg down appears to be a controlled attempt to drive the stock down over time and as you can see, the severity of the fall lessened over the final months as it began to level out. The second defined lines show us that a controlled basing took place in the stock and in fact, we did finally hit bottom and move sideways for a period of time. Finally, the third stage shows us that the stock began to rise again in a very controlled way to where we are today. All of the vertical lines in this chart represent one week worth of trading. In looking at a single line we are able to shut out the noise of day to day nonsense with the stock. I drew a line across the recent high, or 52 week high for the stock and if you look to the left, you will see a period when the stock was dropping but paused there too. And so when we talk about the price of the stock being important at this level, we do so because of how it reacted back then too. If we manage to rally above the recent 52 week high, we will also be breaking out of a 2012 high as well and this is important. I'll explain that later.

Next is the more recent chart which all of us here are so tuned into:



Why are we so excited about this chart? It shows us quite clearly, the extreme highs and lows of trading in the stock, on a daily basis. We have the stock clearly making lower highs, and higher lows, this is a battle between the bulls and the bears and it can only go on for so long before the stock stops trading. Only one side is going to win the battle here, but in order to win, with the kind of money we are talking about here, one side has to throw in the towel and accept that they were wrong. The side that does this first results in them unwinding their position to the benefit of the other challenger. Within this chart I show some lines that TA specialists look for. We always start with the outside, extreme lines which in this case, we call a Pennant or sometimes a Flag Formation, the blue lines. The rest of the lines are more creative because we don't know any more than anyone else does as to what the computer driven programs are doing, nor, the Funds. We try to guess where the stock can go based upon probability and the art of TA. When a trade looks like something in the past, and as a result, it behaves like that trade many times over, we can suggest that it will occur again. The probability of the stock rising up and out of a Pennant Formation like this one is "75% of the time". This is a mathematical consequence of our research. The two circles are related to the RSI (Relative Strength Index) which is another TA indicator that suggests the stock will have another point of exhaustion if it gets into the range of RSI = 70 or above. So you watch for this indicator to see if it is above RSI = 70 (over-bought) or RSI = 30 (over-sold) and trade accordingly. The green lines show you what I'm thinking, meaning that there is little to go on in terms of probability here, except my "feeling" of what is developing in the short term. I was able to predict the trading range for this past Friday based on this guess alone. Is it weak, you bet, did it produce some good results, it shore did, it means we are getting closer to knowing what will come next! Green is for "go" as in up here, I think the stock is set to rally to $ 17.50/shr before it pauses to refresh. The disciplined reason for this guess is that RSI will be well into the RSI = 70 area which TA tells me is major resistance.

The final chart is the same period with a indicator called the Bollinger Bands. I wrote my dissertation on the BB's so I know a little about that indicator! The BB is a really cool indicator that takes the 22 day moving average and plots the stock inside the boundaries of the average to two standard deviations of the norm (2 SD's = 95% probability or high correlation here). Hard to believe it but the accuracy of this indicator is amazing.



This chart shows us that the extreme trading range narrowed, the daily volume (black line below), dropped off markedly and the bans which are those snake-like lines tracking the top/bottom of the stock, narrowed too. The broken line in the middle represents a bullish move when the stock is above it and the stock is said to be bearish when the stock price is below it. The green lines are the narrowing of the indicator and the small circle is the stock hitting up against the top of the 22-daily average and about to do something it rarely ever does, exit the BB lines. Remember, all stocks stay inside the BB's 95% of the time, when a stock moves outside the BB's it can only stay outside for a very short time. There are only two ways to resolve this issue and that is for the BB's to expand and capture the stock price again or for the stock to fall back into the BB's. We saw the second choice as the stock was only outside the bands for one day. The stock held above the center broken line and set us up for another rally.

Based upon all of this, I would have to limit my targets to a breakout of the stock to the upside (75%), a rally to RSI = 85 (over-bought), or $ 17.50/shr on this next move. We could test the 52 week high if we can pause in the $ 17.00's and mark some time for a month or so. The BB's show us that a target of only $ 16.50 exists but that band will expand to handle the $ 17.50 this time around. Everything is in place for a major pop here but only to $ 17.50/shr unless the news out of Florida is so good that the bears need to cover. In order to see this rally, the volume would have to start raising again, we would have to close and stay above the $ 15.60/shr area (Pennant Line) for at least 2 more days and we would need to take out the recent high of $ 16.59/shr. That's it for now! Please know that TA actually is far more detailed and complex then this brief review. If I included "candles" and many other indicators, I'm sure many here would run for the hills. LOL

This is just an awesome read. Morgan, the amount of time you put into your posts and providing us with your knowledge is simply almost unheard of. I know you have said along the likes of ...you believe "what goes around comes around". Great mentality to live by.

I get a lot of enjoyment reading your posts. You have my ultimate appreciation.

[morganplus8]

M8 I enjoyed that read.

Question: isn't TA self fulfilling, the more people that use it the more the stock behaves that way? Because everyone is using the same rules?

Eg why can't it stay out of the bolinger bands for ling? Is it because everyone is expecting this so they will trade accordingly. Kindof like heisenbergs uncertainty principle.

As you interact with the experiment you change the results.

I would imagine the jumps in stock price are not modeled by TA? They are purely news driven? I remember my professor trying to teach us jump diffusion modelling...

Posted via CB10

Hi Komoto!!

Hey, I loved that question so much I wrote my paper on "Bollinger Bands versus News influences in the stock market" (not the title) so I hear where you are coming from. It was peer reviewed and published and boring but it clearly proved that "Efficient Market Theory" (EMT or EMH), via Joseph Stiglitz and Eugene Fama is no longer relevant. Please research their work as it explains in detail how news makes a market.

I proved through the use of BB's that this is no longer the case. With computer driven algorithms, we have a market that fills in the vacant time periods with a great deal more volatility today. It is all of this volatility that is derived from carefully planned trading ranges and strategies. We are the small fish in the sea, we use TA to try and figure out what the real drivers of the bus are planning next. The big money sets the parameters for a the stock and we try to understand where they are going.

TA is for us small fish, its the only tool on earth that can level the playing field versus big money. After years of skirting the art of TA, you can no longer ignore it. Your second comment on the BB's bordering the stock price so well is another great one. This empirical calculation derives its accuracy from the Bell Curve Model and by using the SD of 22 business days, it is flexible enough to capture 95% of the trading range of any stock, to the point that it is included in the algorithms of the big players. When an indicator works that well, it is adopted and therein you find the idea that the "indicator is now driving the bus " works. And it is such that you are right to an extent!

There are two classes of investors, those who move the stock with force, i.e. their money, and the rest of us. The movers don't care about anything other than getting from A to B. We care about the direction and our best guess at what constitutes a great investment is their financials. The big money has a greater plan in mind and it doesn't involve TA. Hope this answers your questions and thanks.