[Charles Martin1]

BlackBerry Shorts Are On Borrowed Time - Seeking Alpha

There have been no truer words said before.

[Andrew4life]

Actually, he clearly says "a few" weeks ago -
Video is here - Blackberry CEO: Expect Q10 By End of May | Fox Business Video
Check out the 0:50 mark and on
And I quote, "The Zed10 selling really well. We had to crank up production a few weeks ago, as I said earlier"

6-8 is "a few weeks".

My read on this is that during the preliminary "pre-live interview" chat, They were discussing things in sort of a pre-interview warm up and Thorsten told her ("as I said earlier") we have ramped up production in the past 2 weeks.

From my personal experience doing media interviews, there is always pre-discussions about the topic and questions asked and then the reporter says "We are going live now" or "I am going to start the recording now". Then the "official" interview starts.

Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. LoL

"As I said earlier" is probably not a reference to a pre-interview, it is reference to what he has said in the past few weeks about the initial ramp up in production.

[tygros]

6-8 is "a few weeks".




"As I said earlier" is probably not a reference to a pre-interview, it is reference to what he has said in the past few weeks about the initial ramp up in production.

No it's not. C'mon, guys... A Few is a small number - - anywhere from 2-4 tops. Google is your friend

[gohan_bcc]

No it's not. C'mon, guys... A Few is a small number - - anywhere from 2-4 tops. Google is your friend

Unfortunately with BlackBerry it is best to expect the worst on timelines and hope it comes in earlier. Early 2014 = Mid 2014, Mid 2014 = Late 2015, Late 2015 = Early 2016 etc. So a few of 2-4 should be bumped to 4-6

[capper96]

M+8

Can you provide some analysis on the weekly charts? Any key indicators that you use on the weekly (for example you use 5DMA on the daily)

From my raw analysis on the weekly, notice the volume and SP spike higher Aug2012 to Feb2013, which to me indicates a strong trend. The volume declines and the SP levels off Mar2013 to today, telling me the trend is not turning negative. If the SP was going to fall the volume would increase right?

Thanks for any insight.

[plasmid_boy]

Maritimes media . . . . . much more laid back.

So you are thinking that my scenario couldn't or did not happen?

No, I didn't doubt your scenarios. I know some interviews are pre-discussed or even rehearsed. I like those better. Live ones are strange because you never know what they are going to ask or if you will get stumped.

[Soumaila Somtore]

That good the day consumers can say ho this is already on Blackberry old phone for IOs new phone, that will means the begining of Iphone End.

Gosh, this sounds like BB10 including the "glance" idea.

Jony Ive paints a fresh, yet familiar, look for iOS 7 | 9to5Mac

[take99]

Update to Mikey Collins friday article, some very interesting numbers in here

Blackberry Sell Outs At Selfridges �They Have Never Seen Anything Like� 9 comments
Apr 29, 2013 10:30 AM
Today Blackberry (BBRY) celebrated its triumphant return with a blow out weekend at London's Selfridges. Currently, the Blackberry Q10 figures on the front page at Selfridges, itself a rare feat as I can't remember the last time this venerable store promoted a cell phone on its landing page. This is what the staff told me:
"They have never seen anything like it;"
Beat anything they had seen be it Iphone 5 etc.
Here is a photo of the staff that is doing this; fyi these are NOT the staff that I spoke with. I got this information someone else there.
I Was Wrong about Multi Unit Buyers: They don't buy in 10s or 20s but 100s and 200s! Below is a photo of a multi-unit buyer (20 units) and the stacks. People have been buying 10-20 bricks at a time!!
This has been going nonstop, people walking away with stacks of bricks as per the photo. This is still going today. Selfridges has just become a mass clearing house for the Q10.
On Friday I reported back an early indication of Blackberry's torrid opening day launch at the Carphone Warehouse's flagship store there. I visited the store again Saturday and Sunday and can report the following:
Saturday:
They receive two shipments per day, AM and PM;
The units are sold out in the first hour or so
Pre ordered backlogs are building;
Saturday at 5PM they were still lining up at the 'multi unit lines' and; 'individual units lines' to pre order (CPW make paying online difficult for security reasons; pre-orders are best done in stores.)
Walk-in handsets had sold out
You could only pre-order for a couple of days delivery or pick up one you had pre ordered prior to the
Saturday was a repeat of Friday, with more stock� no hard numbers
Sunday:
They sold out in the AM (I suspect also in the PM shipment but I left just after it arrived, so I can't confirm that)
From what I was able to discern, it is not unimaginable at all that they did 10,000+ units opening weekend from Selfridges. (Selfridges sells online too) I got a soft confirmation of this but if you estimate 3 days at 2500 + online, it's quite doable?
Someone please call James Faucette at Pacific Crest and ask him if Blackberry is DOA?
The Q10 cost $880 in London. Blackberry users here are mostly all buying the Q10 out right (without contracts) if that gives you an idea of what pent up can do. Three years since your last upgrade can make for droves of keyboard lovers as CarPhone Warehouse at Selfridges just found out. [MC Go and see if it was the most successful launch ever]
What does this mean going forward? In this article last February you heard that the Z10's launch at Selfridges "has been comparable to the launch of a new iPhone."
TAKE NOTE: You now know Z10 launch paled in comparison to the Q10 this weekend. Ergo, the Q10's launch blew out past Iphone launches. WOW. People really missed their keyboards or what? [Shall I go confirm this]
Look at What the Z10 did To Apple in the UK Three Months:

Three months later, a Blackberry with a touch screen has managed stop and turn around years long market erosion. The stats below show you Blackberry's vendor market share based on Browser stats.
StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

(click to enlarge)

Sample size: 703 Million UK page views, 17 Billion Global
The inflection point is evident: February's launch of the Z10. This happened largely at Apple's expense. Blackberry rose from a low 14.94% to 16.57% A multi year reversal was arrested by a Blackberry Z10 without a keyboard? Say what? Don't hang your hat on the specifics of the % here, but do note the trends:
The Inflection point was February launch of the Z10;
An all touch device drove Blackberry's growth here. Say What?
A significant part of the loss is coming at Apple's expense.
Now imagine what the Q10 is going to do to that chart?
What Should Investors Do:

If Blackberry has not been short squeezed by the end of this week then keep an eye out for my next SA article concerning an alarming up tick in failed trades at brokerages (large ones 100k+ shares). This will be of great interest to professionals who understand the mechanics of shorting and settlement. Basically, Shorts cannot cover their bear raids as there is no more stock to borrow and so they started 'failing trades.' No one will let them sell naked anymore, no more stock to borrow. (Borrow rate is 9-10% for BBRY stock -This is insaley high)
So what?
Well, a lot of the volume on BBRY is FAKE, day traders, HFT. Any real buyer comes in ...it moves�. The shorts can't cover themselves as they would move it up. They are basically boxed in. This is trade is like a big fat pig waiting to explode. And here comes the Q10 sing in 'I love Bacon!'
SPLAT!
If that's not bad enough, record date is May 21 for the next AGM July 9 in Waterloo. You know what that means: Stock recall to vote, Shorts lose their borrow. This would be a 'Technical Knockout' for the Shorts. All this with the Q10 burning them beneath.
Is Your Hedge fund Manger Short BBRY? Call him and ask?
The Bricks:

(click to enlarge)

[BBInPlay]

My read on this is that during the preliminary "pre-live interview" chat, They were discussing things in sort of a pre-interview warm up and Thorsten told her ("as I said earlier") we have ramped up production in the past 2 weeks.

From my personal experience doing media interviews, there is always pre-discussions about the topic and questions asked and then the reporter says "We are going live now" or "I am going to start the recording now". Then the "official" interview starts.

Anyway, that's my story and I am sticking to it. LoL

No there is a report from few weeks ago where they said they were upping production to 2 million units a a month.

This is why a projection of 2.7 million units for the current quarter is off by a bout 1/2.

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

A Loigcal Case for Why BlackBerry Shares are Ridiculously Discounted Right Now - Techvibes.com

The conclusion of Gomes is that Blackberry will hit $20 per share in the "coming months" with great potential to crack $30 this year.

[Charles Martin1]

Stocks To Watch For April 30, 2013

Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY) had a nice breakout from the symmetrical triangle on solid volume. Upcoming resistance is at 16.01 and 16.82 which are the previous highs. Looking at the technical chart we can see a couple of bullish signals confirming the �breakout� and we can expect the price to move higher from this point.

[W Hoa]

From the Mike Collins update

If that's not bad enough, record date is May 21 for the next AGM July 9 in Waterloo. You know what that means: Stock recall to vote, Shorts lose their borrow. This would be a 'Technical Knockout' for the Shorts. All this with the Q10 burning them beneath.

I would love to see Thorsten and the Board put forward a motion to licence BB10 or 'shop' the company, something legal and high profile, just to generate massive interest in the AGM. If investors/funds have a big enough issue to vote on they will want their shares back. Date of record is May 21 and launch of Q10 in the US is in that time frame as well. Boom go the shorts.

[Charles Martin1]

All of this positive news about BBRY is building momentum. By the time the Q10 hits the US market this thing is going to fly!

[Charles Martin1]

Update to Mikey Collins friday article, some very interesting numbers in here

Well, a lot of the volume on BBRY is FAKE, day traders, HFT. Any real buyer comes in ...it moves�. The shorts can't cover themselves as they would move it up. They are basically boxed in. This is trade is like a big fat pig waiting to explode. And here comes the Q10 sing in 'I love Bacon!'
SPLAT!
If that's not bad enough, record date is May 21 for the next AGM July 9 in Waterloo. You know what that means: Stock recall to vote, Shorts lose their borrow. This would be a 'Technical Knockout' for the Shorts. All this with the Q10 burning them beneath.
Is Your Hedge fund Manger Short BBRY? Call him and ask?
The Bricks:

(click to enlarge)

Is it possible that this squeeze is being manufactured? I honestly don't see how it makes sense to be shorting at this stage UNLESS there is something bigger to gain from causing a short squeeze.

Anyone here ever seen such a thing?

[Shanerredflag]

I had to work today (yes yes...it was awful) so what happened! ... was it a good day?


Kidding.. nice to read 10 or 12 pages of happy people posting away...hope we have a month to six week run here...up to M8's 22.50 target. Cheers everyone.

Posted via CB10

[BBNation]

Comment on SA if it's true:



We are a small institutional bull with a large long position with an eye on the shorts. But try as hard as we have canvassing all the HF/Trading Accts we know here in CT and in NYC, we cannot find anyone that will own up to being short just 10,000 shares, let alone a cumulative 164mm. We are forced to the conclusion that some Competitor has funded shorts on the premise that corporate customers would be dissuaded from buying BB because of doubts on viability.. and have "paid" analysts to report negatively... The only way we will know for sure is through discovery which would require Heins to sue the Detwilers et al...

[bungaboy]

Hit $15.70 in AM. Now at $15.66

[bungaboy]

Comment on SA if it's true:

We are a small institutional bull with a large long position with an eye on the shorts. But try as hard as we have canvassing all the HF/Trading Accts we know here in CT and in NYC, we cannot find anyone that will own up to being short just 10,000 shares, let alone a cumulative 164mm. We are forced to the conclusion that some Competitor has funded shorts on the premise that corporate customers would be dissuaded from buying BB because of doubts on viability.. and have "paid" analysts to report negatively... The only way we will know for sure is through discovery which would require Heins to sue the Detwilers et al...

Who here would honestly be surprised if that were the case?

[Soumaila Somtore]

$16 in AM is my guess

Hit $15.70 in AM. Now at $15.66

[cjcampbell]

$16 in AM is my guess

Not likely. I think tomorrow we'll touch it but think it will be a fairly flat day with minimal gains.

Posted via CB10

[take99]

I think it's a little far-fetched myself, although if it was happening, it would obviously be Samsung.
I think we are underestimating the stupidity of some of the 'retail' shorts. If you watch their comments on twitter and SA articles, most simply seem to be bandwagon jumpers spouting off about BBRY being DOA, too little to late, etc., not matching Sammy or apple sales etc. The ratio of non-intelligent to intelligent bear commentary seems to be about 20:1. Do the intelligent bears just not like to share their insights with fellow bears? Maybe. Or maybe the intelligent bears are hedged with 'some' upside still left for them if the stock takes off. On the bull side, we also have a lot of crap, however IMHO it is generally a little more fact based and the ratio of junk commentary to goodness is lower.

Who here would honestly be surprised if that were the case?

[Shanerredflag]

I think it's a little far-fetched myself, although if it was happening, it would obviously be Samsung.
I think we are underestimating the stupidity of some of the 'retail' shorts. If you watch their comments on twitter and SA articles, most simply seem to be bandwagon jumpers spouting off about BBRY being DOA, too little to late, etc., not matching Sammy or apple sales etc. The ratio of non-intelligent to intelligent bear commentary seems to be about 20:1. Do the intelligent bears just not like to share their insights with fellow bears? Maybe. Or maybe the intelligent bears are hedged with 'some' upside still left for them if the stock takes off. On the bull side, we also have a lot of crap, however IMHO it is generally a little more fact based and the ratio of junk commentary to goodness is lower.

Could be an over abundance of stupid people but man, where or how do they amass that kind of capital? That is $2,557,500,000.00 worth of dumb (at 15.50) lol

[bungaboy]

This . . . . .

[Soumaila Somtore]

these guys might not be stupide it maybe they are in the red, and deeply hoping that somehow thinks can change. it is so easy to live in a dream, illusion when you don't want to admit your errors.

I think it's a little far-fetched myself, although if it was happening, it would obviously be Samsung.
I think we are underestimating the stupidity of some of the 'retail' shorts. If you watch their comments on twitter and SA articles, most simply seem to be bandwagon jumpers spouting off about BBRY being DOA, too little to late, etc., not matching Sammy or apple sales etc. The ratio of non-intelligent to intelligent bear commentary seems to be about 20:1. Do the intelligent bears just not like to share their insights with fellow bears? Maybe. Or maybe the intelligent bears are hedged with 'some' upside still left for them if the stock takes off. On the bull side, we also have a lot of crap, however IMHO it is generally a little more fact based and the ratio of junk commentary to goodness is lower.

[bungaboy]

New Stockberrian's theme song.