[peter9477]

It is my understanding that, by convention, this is not the case. The manufacturer ships the product to the customer and the customer pays the manufacturer some time after. In the unlikely event the product does not sell, the customer may return shipment to the manufacturer. The value of the product the company has shipped to a customer for which it has not received payment is documented under the "accounts receivable" item on the balance sheet.

You can review the full details of a company's balance sheet in the SEC's EDGAR database. Here is the briefing for BBRY on MSNMoney.
Balance Sheet - MSN Money
For example, BBRY has an accounts receivable of 2,353.0 million in Q4 2013. Part of that figure may or may not be from the Z10.

The opposite of "accounts receivable" is "accounts payable". This is the amount of money owed by the company to its suppliers. If I am mistaken, anyone should feel free to correct me.

That's basically all true, except for the part about "in the unlikely event". I happen to run a corporation, so yes, I know all about accounts receivable. You're describing what, among other things, is called accrual basis accounting (as opposed to cash basis accounting). It's correct that the actual money does not arrive immediately upon delivery of the product... you generally wait somewhere between, say, 10 and 90 days to see the cash. This is effectively universal business practice between companies.

Don't treat accounts receivable as suggesting the money isn't yours, however. Governments make you pay income tax on what you've claimed under accounts receivable. Banks will give you loans against your accounts receivable. And yes, you put it on your balance sheet, and even count it under profit.

None of this was, however, likely relevant to most of the discussion of shipped vs. sold. Also I don't think anyone is truly concerned about returns ("in the unlikely event") here, since it's very clear the product is selling, and well. For now anyway, if it's out the door, we can treat it as money in the bank for BBRY.

Really, at this stage the whole "shipped or sold" question is a red herring, the sort of comment made by those with a bearish outlook and intended to reduce optimism in the market about how well the Z10 is doing. It made more sense in the old PlayBook discussions, because there was a real question there about whether it was actually selling as well as the shipped numbers we were seeing. As it turned out, that time, in some quarters far more was shipped than actually sold, and we'd "catch" them on that in later quarters as the reality became clear. Does anyone here believe this is happening with the Z10? I really don't think so...

[morlock_man]

Momentum is starting to shift.

[silversun10]

Outperform and target of $20 for CIBC:



According to CIBC World Markets:

Research In Motion Limited

Right Sized And Ready For Earnings Leverage

- Blackberry reported a strong Q4 including $219 mln in FCF ($2.9B net cash) and 40% GM. One million Z10 were shipped, 55% of which were sold to non-BB users. Q10 is testing with over 40 carriers in 20 countries and is on track to launch in April. Now is a good time to buy; our PT is raised.

- Q4 sales were $2.67B (us $3.3B, cons. $2.84B) as shipments (6MM, us 7.5MM, cons. 6.9MM) of older products were 1.5MM below expectations. The offset and surprise was the adj. GM of 40.1% (us 29.6%, cons. 30.3%). Z10 ASPS pushed GM and adj. EPS to $0.22 (us -$0.16, cons. -$0.30).

- For Q1 we expect shipments of 6.8MM based on a mix of 2.75MM BB10 and 4MM BB7 and older devices, which should continue lower in front of further Z10 and Q10 launches. Our conservatively modelled GM (41%) together with higher OpEx (+30%) yield adj. EPS of $0.05 (cons. -$0.08).

- We raise our PT to $20 (up from $17) and maintain our SO-S rating. We expect that F2014 estimates will move higher based on staggered rollouts of BB10 (Z10, Q10 for enterprise upgrades), higher GM and good OpEx control. EPS leverage to $1.00 plus is achievable which supports a $20 PT.

[helopilot06]

I like that target prices are going up but I dont think that its going to generate enough momentum yet to push out the short interest. I tdont think we are gonna see the rapid gains that we all want

[EvanRitch]

Well im finding that having stocks in various companies is alot more fun. Except it becomes addicting trying to add just 1 more company into the portfolio hahaha

[leafs123]

I took advantage of this weekend which was full of family dinners and gatherings to show off my Z10 and tell people about it (I should get paid in BBRY shares from BlackBerry!). Have to say that the old opinion of BlackBerrys is changing. My brother who is 20 years old (and waiting for the Q10) says all of his friends are noticing the coolness of the new BB phones, where before the perception of freezing and slow BBs was there. Showing off the flow, camera and the amazing keyboard really did the trick. People were also impressed with how thin the Z10 was, especially since it has a removable battery. Matter of fact, one person thought that it did not have a removable battery door because of the sleekness of the phone.

I hope this momentum continues and people start converting over. The Z10 is just the begininng imo, and not the make or break as it is being framed in the media.

[DragonFlyer]

SuperflyFR, this posts for you.
This thread was created by SuperflyFR back in November of 2011. For a thread to still have a pulse after 17 months is a testament onto itself. Not only has this thread survived, it has exploded. This past month has seen more posts than the previous 16 months combined.
I give this post a rating of outperform.



I'm sure everyone here would be pleased if Morgan could give us his TA on this chart.

[leafs123]

Outperform and target of $20 for CIBC:



According to CIBC World Markets:

Research In Motion Limited

Right Sized And Ready For Earnings Leverage

- Blackberry reported a strong Q4 including $219 mln in FCF ($2.9B net cash) and 40% GM. One million Z10 were shipped, 55% of which were sold to non-BB users. Q10 is testing with over 40 carriers in 20 countries and is on track to launch in April. Now is a good time to buy; our PT is raised.

- Q4 sales were $2.67B (us $3.3B, cons. $2.84B) as shipments (6MM, us 7.5MM, cons. 6.9MM) of older products were 1.5MM below expectations. The offset and surprise was the adj. GM of 40.1% (us 29.6%, cons. 30.3%). Z10 ASPS pushed GM and adj. EPS to $0.22 (us -$0.16, cons. -$0.30).

- For Q1 we expect shipments of 6.8MM based on a mix of 2.75MM BB10 and 4MM BB7 and older devices, which should continue lower in front of further Z10 and Q10 launches. Our conservatively modelled GM (41%) together with higher OpEx (+30%) yield adj. EPS of $0.05 (cons. -$0.08).

- We raise our PT to $20 (up from $17) and maintain our SO-S rating. We expect that F2014 estimates will move higher based on staggered rollouts of BB10 (Z10, Q10 for enterprise upgrades), higher GM and good OpEx control. EPS leverage to $1.00 plus is achievable which supports a $20 PT.

Nice to see my former employer being bullish on BB. They are also the 10th largest shareholder in BBRY with 6.3M shares, so they probably want it to go higher!

[Charles Martin1]

I like that target prices are going up but I dont think that its going to generate enough momentum yet to push out the short interest. I tdont think we are gonna see the rapid gains that we all want

I just want gains and less volatility. If by the time I retire these shares can be worth a couple million I'll be delighted. Saves me from having to look for too many others.

[Charles Martin1]

I hope it drops first thing

That's the greedy in me

[drummer_god]

Morganplus8's latest is on page 554.

[peter9477]

Did someone post the Wells Fargo upgrade yet? StreetInsider.com - Wells Improves Estimates on BlackBerry (BBRY); Gross Margin to Outpace Views

[MikeShade]

I think we are seeing a paridigm shift with regards to the company. Bear bashers have gradually moved from "this company is awful and soon to be bankrupt" to "ok its going to survive but it won't do that great".
I think we will see steady price appreciation from here on as we continue to see the company make a series of positive steps going forward.

[Charles Martin1]

I think we are seeing a paridigm shift with regards to the company. Bear bashers have gradually moved from "this company is awful and soon to be bankrupt" to "ok its going to survive but it won't do that great".
I think we will see steady price appreciation from here on as we continue to see the company make a series of positive steps going forward.

I'm a believer in that...

[helopilot06]

I just want gains and less volatility. If by the time I retire these shares can be worth a couple million I'll be delighted. Saves me from having to look for too many others.

I doubt BBRY will be that long term. Most companies arent (nothing against BBRY but ihave 40 yrs till retirement lol) I just need to make my money back I need to get to over 18 to make anything worth cashing in

[peter9477]

Also something from FBR? BlackBerry Given New $11.00 Price Target at FBR Capital (BBRY) They still say "Underperform"... nice to see that an underperforming stock can make them double their price target, however. Has it really been underperforming that, um, well? ;-)

[StormieTwo]

I just want gains and less volatility. If by the time I retire these shares can be worth a couple million I'll be delighted. Saves me from having to look for too many others.

Problem is BBRY is a Day trader's wet dream. The trading volume is the reason volatility and short interest are so high. I was reading somewhere that if you look at the trading volumes (especially on the really big days) they exceed the number of available shares so the shares must be trading through multiple hands per day. I don't know how short interest is calculated but if they are just summing of the totals and not deducting the closed contracts (which could happen within a five minute window the way this SP bounces around), then that short interest number is more an indicator of volatility then of hate for BBRY.

[Charles Martin1]

I doubt BBRY will be that long term. Most companies arent (nothing against BBRY but ihave 40 yrs till retirement lol) I just need to make my money back I need to get to over 18 to make anything worth cashing in

Lol...ah, to be young again...

[helopilot06]

Lol...ah, to be young again...

Id trade a little youth for a little more capital. It would be nice to be able to be home more. Im STILL at work (midnight to 4pm today) just to make ends meet

[morlock_man]

I hear a monster rally forming off in the distance...

[helopilot06]

Why Research In Motion May Be About to Take Off (BBRY)

[DragonFlyer]

Id trade a little youth for a little more capital. It would be nice to be able to be home more. Im STILL at work (midnight to 4pm today) just to make ends meet

I will give you all my capital for your youth! I can make money, I can't make youth!

[helopilot06]

I will give you all my capital for your youth! I can make money, I can't make youth!

This is true, but its getting harder and harder to make money these days... it sucks honestly. A business degree was a terrible move

[helopilot06]

and an early morning dip into the negative

[leafs123]

This is true, but its getting harder and harder to make money these days... it sucks honestly. A business degree was a terrible move

Lol, an arts degree was worse.