[sparkaction]

Guys after all the earnings excitement we forgot to call out all the analysts/firms that were dead wrong on the amount of z10's sold. We should twitter blast them. Who's got a list? These are the ones I could find:

Goldman Sachs 650K Z10
MKM Partners 400K Z10
Sterne Agee 500-750K Z10
Pacific Crest 275-300K Z10
RBC Capital Markets 500K Z10
Canaccord Capital 300K Z10 (What did they change it to?)

Don't waste your time. I say just integrate with info into your analysis and buy and sell accordingly. I foresee a few analyst upgrades due to the info issued for Q4 of 2013.

Posted via CB10

[raysgrumpy]

Guys after all the earnings excitement we forgot to call out all the analysts/firms that were dead wrong on the amount of z10's sold. We should twitter blast them. Who's got a list? These are the ones I could find:

Goldman Sachs 650K Z10
MKM Partners 400K Z10
Sterne Agee 500-750K Z10
Pacific Crest 275-300K Z10
RBC Capital Markets 500K Z10
Canaccord Capital 300K Z10 (What did they change it to?)

I thought they said a 2/3 to 3/4 sell through on 1 million shipped Z10s? Unless there are other concrete numbers, some of the estimates you listed are not far off

[helopilot06]

Wait a minute... these guys are nobody. Who's ever heard of them before?

And I don't think it's actually an "analyst", just one of the bazillion companies that have mysteriously sprung up lately that publish things that are dressed up to look highly technical and professional, but which even they don't claim represents an actual expectation of performance, but merely some calculation (which they no doubt apply consistently to all the stocks) which comes up with certain numbers. That way they don't have to actually stand behind their rating and try to justify it: "it's just what the numbers say".

Is there any reason to grant them the apparent credibility our eyeballs would give them?

They have actually been one of the analysts on scottrade for the last 6 years that I have been trading online with them.

[Superfly_FR]

wow. second day in a row w/ 16 hours on sceen reading/coding/debugging ... I wish I had such time for my BB10 app
So, just a friendly hello & happy easter. I quit the screen for tonight; doing nothing but errors ... 1 day left to deliver ... I feel like a RIM developer, 6 months ago !!!

[silversun10]

They have actually been one of the analysts on scottrade for the last 6 years that I have been trading online with them.

so, what is their track record?

[helopilot06]

wow. second day in a row w/ 16 hours on sceen reading/coding/debugging ... I wish I had such time for my BB10 app
So, just a friendly hello & happy easter. I quit the screen for tonight; doing nothing but errors ... 1 day left to deliver ... I feel like a RIM developer, 6 months ago !!!

Sorry work is a downer. Happy easter to you as well tho!

[helopilot06]

so, what is their track record?

Hit and miss honestly. Were off on alot of sectors but pretty good on finance stocks. Called Citi for me years ago and made a huge bank on it

[helopilot06]

Hit and miss honestly. Were off on alot of sectors but pretty good on finance stocks. Called Citi for me years ago and made a huge bank on it

Point is still tho that uninformed investors listen to that crap

[DragonFlyer]

I thought they said a 2/3 to 3/4 sell through on 1 million shipped Z10s? Unless there are other concrete numbers, some of the estimates you listed are not far off

The 2/3 to 3/4 sell through was on to date, not the last quarter. In the last quarter the Z10 was being sold out as soon as it arrived.

[peter9477]

They have actually been one of the analysts on scottrade for the last 6 years that I have been trading online with them.

I'm not sure the term "analyst" applies, though obviously if there's no better word then I guess it does.

These guys are actually what I'd call analysts: Analyst Ratings for BlackBerry (BBRY) There's another list here: Research In Motion Limited (BBRY) Analyst Stock Recommendation - NASDAQ.com I think those are all the ones that officially follow BBRY.

I think to be considered such an analyst, or at least to be granted the respect the markets give to them even when they're spewing rubbish, you have to actually do more than just make calculations based on technical analysis. In fact, I'm not sure any of those analysts would be using TA in preparing their ratings, though if someone knows otherwise please enlighten me. I think the analysts I'd call "real" (maybe there's actually a name for them?) actually spend real time monitoring the stock, the company events, checking with suppliers and resellers, and so on.

Does this "Market Edge" firm have similar reports for all stocks? If so, I hope there's a different name we can use for either the one or the other type of "analyst", so there's no confusion. One cannot truly analyze all the stocks that are out there, the way Morgan Stanley or J.P.Morgan do, for example.

[peter9477]

Canaccord Capital 300K Z10 (What did they change it to?)

I think they actually went to "300K - 800K", though without any change in the rest of their predictions.

Thanks for compiling that list! Good thing you published it before April 1, since otherwise people would rightly think it was a joke. ;-)

[krispeykarim]

predictions for tommorrow?

[silversun10]

predictions for tommorrow?

it will be Monday!!!

[bungaboy]

predictions for tommorrow?

Getting lighter towards dawn.

[peter9477]

Buncha clowns... :-)

Posted via CB10

[mikev85]

I will have a case of the Mondays

[raysgrumpy]

The 2/3 to 3/4 sell through was on to date, not the last quarter. In the last quarter the Z10 was being sold out as soon as it arrived.

Sold out as soon as it arrives isn't a number. I have yet to see an official number of Z10's sold. I believe the call said that 1 million had been shipped and they hadn't sold all of them to date. Unless there is an official statement staying otherwise, I would assume they have sold less than 1 million. If you have that information, I'm curious to know it

[kfh227]

I thought they said a 2/3 to 3/4 sell through on 1 million shipped Z10s? Unless there are other concrete numbers, some of the estimates you listed are not far off

They are all low though. Thing is, I don't know if those analysts said sell through or sold.

[peter9477]

I think even the analysts knew that with zero stock already in the channel, basically everything shipped got sold. Except maybe those Canaccord twits... I bet they'd say "Oh, we knew they'd *ship* more, but since they didn't say how many sold through then we were right when we said no more than 800K sold". (Even though they never qualified it either, of course.)

Here's the important thing, if it's true: everything they shipped, they got paid for, at full price. (Anyone have information to the contrary?)

The additional Brightstar order for 1M? As BB ships the phones out for that order, they're getting paid for them.

At this stage in the product's life, it's not highly relevant if X percent of the phones are not in consumers' hands yet, unless that number is so high that it would suggest a failed launch, and I don't think anyone honestly believes that's happened based on data available so far.

[DragonFlyer]

Sold out as soon as it arrives isn't a number. I have yet to see an official number of Z10's sold. I believe the call said that 1 million had been shipped and they hadn't sold all of them to date. Unless there is an official statement staying otherwise, I would assume they have sold less than 1 million. If you have that information, I'm curious to know it

They have sold many more than a million to date, but if you don't want to believe that, it's no skin off my back. I am very comfortable with the research I have done that the Z10 has been a very successful launch.

[raysgrumpy]

They have sold many more than a million to date, but if you don't want to believe that, it's no skin off my back. I am very comfortable with the research I have done that the Z10 has been a very successful launch.

I will believe that when I see official numbers. If you are comfortable with your research, please let us know where and what you found. The company didn't announce any concrete numbers and were very vague at their earnings call . Why should I believe you? I'm just interested in facts, not anecdotal evidence and people pulling numbers out of thin air. It's "no skin off of my back" if you spout off numbers with no evidence

[dusdal]

It's currently only anecdotal both ways. Neither side can say they're right until we have the benefit of hindsight.

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

predictions for tommorrow?

I believe NASDAQ is closed tomorrow. Other than that, there will very likely be a lot of BS floating around to try and ensure that the SP of BBRY doesn't rise too much this week.

[BlackistheBerry]

I believe NASDAQ is closed tomorrow. Other than that, there will very likely be a lot of BS floating around to try and ensure that the SP of BBRY doesn't rise too much this week.

I don't think it's closed. Nasdaq and TSX are open tomorrow.

[Charles Martin1]

Could be some fireworks this week :

BlackBerry Q10 in Canada: Release Date Coming Pretty Soon