[helopilot06]

come on: 2000 votes with even the HTC One not votable are not that representative...

Chris

not saying is a large sampling. However there is a none option where you can write in WHATEVER phone you want. Read the poll before you troll. Regardless of how small the sampling or the option pool it is always indicative of some aspect of the market. Of course I would love to see sampling data but obviously they wont release that. regardless of that, in that sample grouping, keep in mind most research sample groups are less than 2000 which you would know if you had ever done a market sampling, a 29% lead on the next most popular option is still impressive.

[StormieTwo]

Very well said..thank you. (I love the Mr. Wonderful analogy )?

Question...how do you see this playing out?

I don't see a VW style short squeeze happening. Not without a large buy in by a major player like O'leary, I think what we've been seeing recently is what we'll see for the near term, high volatility as the bears and bulls battle for control with the SP continuing to rise slowly. I think we should see short interest start to drop off before Q1 ER, but if it doesn't (and no competitor phone shows up with a game changing feature), we'll see the price jump up in June/July.

[Chris Marsch]

... Read the poll before you troll. ...

Please be carefull with the T-word, I read the comments and I know also, that most sample groups don't have a forum, in which voting for there beloved device is promoted. That said: if the result of the poll makes your life happier...

Chris

[helopilot06]

Please be carefull with the T-word, I read the comments and I know also, that most sample groups don't have a forum, in which voting for there beloved device is promoted. That said: if the result of the poll makes your life happier...

Chris

Before the post was even on CB or any where else for what i know there was a substantial lead for bb when I looked at it yesterday, Up wards of 20%. I think you would be hard pressed to establish any sort of basis for saying that 200 of those votes are all CB readers.

[Tinomane]

I was so incredibly pissed about yesterday I seriously wanted knock someone out. I should've known better not to buy more short term calls. Live and learn. Any other stock not named BBRY that would've reported those earnings would've been up +20% that day.

However, I think the shorts know they dodged a bullet. Yesterday was their last stand and they will slowly and quietly start to cover over the next month or two. The company is now profitable so the stupid bleeding money, DOA, blah blah arguments have no merit. They know the jig is up and the upside potential is way to great to gamble by shorting a now profitable company.

But holy fuk when it turned red yesterday my vision went white. I was tempted to sell every stock and option I own in everything and just put it all in index funds. I know getting emotional over stocks is a cardinal sin, but it's extremely difficult when you know something is undoubtedly being manipulated like crazy.

Stay strong fellow bbry longs. One day we will look back at yesterday and realize it was the last day of bs and the beginning of a strong uptrend.

Oh and fuk you CNBC

[morganplus8]

Thought I would update the charts for the weekend, not that many of you don't already know what they look like, but I did get a request, so here goes!

The first chart is a closeup of the stock:


In the short-term, we are trending along that sym-triangle again, we are right at the 5-dma which has dropped nicely, and, the 50-dma is $ .30/shr above us right now. That was some ride, it became clear that as the day moved on, the news was all negative and we didn't hear from any of the bulls about upgrades and increases in targets for the stock. Couple that with late afternoon, prior to a long weekend, news from CNBC, Bloomberg and BNN.com that BlackBerry was struggling with subs, that's all it took to send us down below the $ 14.80/shr mark. Up until that time, we were trending really well. But when the price of the stock is just at support, there is zero volume, and CNBC is about to talk BB again, we just knew things could get ugly. Now for the good news, we actually rallied off the lows pretty quickly and moved back into a positive trend again just hugging the downtrend line of the sym-triangle.

Next chart:


I separated this part of the chart to focus on the Bollinger Bands alone. We are narrowing again, whenever we narrow, we set ourselves up for a big move. Within those outer lines is a center line that reads bullish when above it and bearish when below it. We are above it now and held it nicely on Thursday. Some good news again. The third chart shows us that there are some short-term downtrend lines that we need to break out of and they don't look like they will hold this week.

The final chart is the longer term picture:


This is a beautiful chart, it is climbing and as been since Sept and it looks comfortable in here. The trend is up, although you could argue that we haven't changed since December. There has been a lot of stock traded up here and the days of $ 7.00/shr investor taking profits is behind us.

So what can we expect? Those numbers were amazing, some of the best stuff wasn't even talked about yesterday. Like Enterprise and Software sales. On the first chart, you can see green circles that represent the stock touching the 5-dma and rallying, we are right at the 5-dma and likely to go above it. Those ralies are good ones, secondly, we are out of the sym-triangle and moving higher from here. Third, the long-term trend is still very much higher from here with great earnings and Misek questioning how BB could "not report positive earnings in Q1". When is the last time you have heard an analyst question whether BlackBerry is "sand bagging positive news"? The RSI is basing for months now at a nice level for a rally here. The bollinger bands are almost as tight as they were when we rallied hard in the Fall. We are also above the bull/bear line on that indicator.

I believe we were the victim of the long weekend and the media bashing on subs at the end of the day. It made sense to park the stock at support for the weekend. We have fundamental news coming, 3 carriers reporting sales, Q10 launch and some upgrades anyone? It would make sense to start a proper week off with some good news and a better rally for the stock. The bulls have never left the party, see chart #3 for reference there. Good luck and let's get back over $ 15.00 next week and start a sustained rally.

[tmurphx5]

Came across this, didn't have time to read it all but may be useful for some of us who are new to the game.

Largest ShareHolder Prem Watsa adheres to Ben Graham investment approach: https://t.co/VRL7qwhyU2

[FocusedBerry]

Hi everyone, been lurking here for months so I finally decided to create an account. I originally bought some shares in the $8 range and slowly added to my portfolio. Great potential here so I'm not worried about the recent action. We will all be rewarded in the near future.

On a side note, I will be selling my Z10 for a Q10 because I'm just in love with that phone!

[bungaboy]

come on: 2000 votes with even the HTC One not votable are not that representative...

Chris

2000 is statistically significant! Just because one unreleased phone by a troubled company isn't on the list doesn't make it insignificant.

Do you use a dumbphone?

[Charles Martin1]

I don't see a VW style short squeeze happening. Not without a large buy in by a major player like O'leary, I think what we've been seeing recently is what we'll see for the near term, high volatility as the bears and bulls battle for control with the SP continuing to rise slowly. I think we should see short interest start to drop off before Q1 ER, but if it doesn't (and no competitor phone shows up with a game changing feature), we'll see the price jump up in June/July.

I don't see short interest dropping off before September. There's a big hate on for BlackBerry and they want to crush it.

[Bugmapper]

Hi everyone, been lurking here for months so I finally decided to create an account. I originally bought some shares in the $8 range and slowly added to my portfolio. Great potential here so I'm not worried about the recent action. We will all be rewarded in the near future.

On a side note, I will be selling my Z10 for a Q10 because I'm just in love with that phone!

Welcome!

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

[greggebhardt]

Hi everyone, been lurking here for months so I finally decided to create an account. I originally bought some shares in the $8 range and slowly added to my portfolio. Great potential here so I'm not worried about the recent action. We will all be rewarded in the near future.

On a side note, I will be selling my Z10 for a Q10 because I'm just in love with that phone!

We all wonder when and if we will "be rewarded". Know one really knows. Even with all the fancy charts this will remain a mystery.

I am anxious to see the Q10's keyboard. It really surprised me how so many BB users grabbed up the Z10 as it lacked a real keyboard. Having a real keyboard has always been the Holy Grail for BB yet many of the users hopped on the Z10 and are very happy.

[Charles Martin1]

I believe we were the victim of the long weekend and the media bashing on subs at the end of the day. It made sense to park the stock at support for the weekend. We have fundamental news coming, 3 carriers reporting sales, Q10 launch and some upgrades anyone? It would make sense to start a proper week off with some good news and a better rally for the stock. The bulls have never left the party, see chart #3 for reference there. Good luck and let's get back over $ 15.00 next week and start a sustained rally.

Thanks M8.

I'm keeping my position instead of reducing to 1/3. I really can't see this thing tanking after such great news and there's the Q10 coming soon. A lot of good news coming soon.

This is starting to get interesting now and could take off at any moment. I think it may make sense to keep my low positions now instead of risking having to buy in at a much higher level.

Thanks again for the TA. Great stuff.

[Kid Vibe]

This could be promising:

BlackBerry co-founder steps down but won’t sell shares | Toronto Star

[StormieTwo]

I don't see short interest dropping off before September. There's a big hate on for BlackBerry and they want to crush it.

You could be right. I just don't get the idea of having a hate on for BBRY. I don't "hate" apple or sammy but the market is irrational right?

[Kid Vibe]

You could be right. I just don't get the idea of having a hate on for BBRY. I don't "hate" apple or sammy but the market is irrational right?

I'd hate a company if I was shorting it. Just the way things go.

[Charles Martin1]

You could be right. I just don't get the idea of having a hate on for BBRY. I don't "hate" apple or sammy but the market is irrational right?

The market can be irrational for longer than we can try to stay in the game...

[bungaboy]

Hi everyone, been lurking here for months so I finally decided to create an account. I originally bought some shares in the $8 range and slowly added to my portfolio. Great potential here so I'm not worried about the recent action. We will all be rewarded in the near future.

On a side note, I will be selling my Z10 for a Q10 because I'm just in love with that phone!

I am going to keep my Z10 and buy a Q10 as well. I love them both. Like having two mistresses.

[Bugmapper]

I am going to keep my Z10 and buy a Q10 as well. I love them both. Like having two mistresses.

Hmmmm... just noticed that my z10 doesn't work upside down. does an iphone?

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

[Tinomane]

I am going to keep my Z10 and buy a Q10 as well. I love them both. Like having two mistresses.

Q10 is the practical wifey at home who sports the mom haircut and wears high waisted jeans. While the Z10 is the young weekend gf that wears mini skirts, red lipstick, and has a penchant for green appletinis.

[sentimentGX4]

2000 is statistically significant! Just because one unreleased phone by a troubled company isn't on the list doesn't make it insignificant.

"Self selection bias". Also, that's not the proper usage of "statistically significant" either. "Statistical significance" refers to the number of standard deviations the result is above the median(?). You can have a sample size of 1 million and not have a statistically significant result. -.-

[DragonFlyer]

Take a look. Z10 is winning the poll for which phone people are going to buy this year.

I voted, thanks for the link. You should post this in other threads, and maybe create a thread of its own. United we stand! Go BlackBerry!

[Komoto]

My thoughts on yesterday.

If you look at the figures everything was very good, the only bad news was the loss of subs.

I have to admit that this caught me off guard. In my model I had 0.5 to 1 mil subs leaving. If was to be expected though that they would lose some subs. As Chris mentioned this bleeding should slow over the next couple of quarters.

As bb10 catches on we should start to see the converts join. As Thorsten mentioned the important thing is to try and generate a high revenue per sub from BlackBerry 10. If BlackBerry can have high margins from device sales and generate some subscription revenues it will be win win. Then the sub base can be lower and still generate the same revenue.

There is still the app store which can generate income and potential for licensing.

Nothing was really mentioned about the BES10, and it has only just started to roll out. Revenues from this could be big as they can tap into ios and android market.

The greatest info which no one really concentrated on was the 55% figure given for the people coming from other platforms. This is makes me even more bullish than before.

In summary I still believe the stock is severely undervalued. Having said this though, even at next quarter earnings I don't think we will see this resolve.

It will probably ly only be when they close next year's financial when we will have definitive confirmation that the turn around has been successful. As Thorsten said he is looking at 5 to 10 years from now. Strap yourselves in for a long ride!


Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

I've just read that Verizon Z10s have outdated operating systems...not a good time for that to be happening...

[helopilot06]

I've just read that Verizon Z10s have outdated operating systems...not a good time for that to be happening...

They just havent released the OTA update yet. Give it a day or two