[BThunderW]

Speculation on both sides aside, I'll be selling half my common stock tomorrow sometime. Just. In. Case.

[helopilot06]

Well all, it was a good day . I think ill sign off for the day and check in with you all in the morning. take care.

[lcjr]

This had better be over $15.03 come ER. That's my average SP green point. In an emergency sell, I need $15.03 or better. Not that I think there will be an emergency...... Just sayin......lol

[Shanerredflag]

For anyone that's interested...it's free and its tonight at 8 ET:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/987654050

Posted via CB10

[chrysaurora]

155 million shorts! holy sh**! This is crazy.

All we've got to do is - not sell our stocks. The only way for price to go down is if somebody was selling. But if we don't sell, then shorts will have to "short" even more to bring price down. But that's okay because they'll eventually have to cover it. So, if they try to artificially bring the price down by shorting (as we, BBRY shareholders, are not selling any real shares) then they'd get screwed whenever it comes time to cover! It'd result in a massive short squeeze!

The company is not going anywhere. It has Z10, Q10 is coming up, and there is a pipeline of apps and new models lined-up for the year. It's going to remain in news and it's going to keep making money.

[jhill396]

Jeez yall are talking about selling now? What happened to balls of steel?

[Shanerredflag]

Agree...this is setting up to be epic, most likely not this ER but something has to give.

Posted via CB10

[Eldon Wilk1]

Just seen 155 million shorts. Doubt they'll give up without a fight. I bought shares but my wife said I have to hold back enough for a divorce lawyer retainer and a couple of trial dates. Damn they are expensive. But I'm in up to the wife. Who I'm actually kinda fond of.

[lcjr]

Jeez yall are talking about selling now? What happened to balls of steel?

Hellloooo, that was sooo yesterday.. duh...

[Andrew4life]

It's funny how this forum is basically comprised of everyone that is Neutral and Long.
Since stocks is a zero sum game, I wonder what website hosts the forum for everyone that is Neutral and Short.

They're probably having a conversation that is exactly opposite to ours.
On up days they'll be like: "The longs are pushing up the stock again", on down days they'll be like: "Looks like the longs are finally realizing BBRY is going to fail."
And they're always asking, "What do the longs know that we don't."
lol

[bungaboy]

It's not about brightstar carrying risk, it's about Verizon not wanting to take a risk.
Basically, the negativity comes from people "thinking" that Verizon didn't want to stock a phone that might not sell, so they instead get a distributor, who would distribute to many different companies, to stock the product.

Basically, instead of
BlackBerry -----> Verizon
the supply chain is
BlackBerry -----> Brightstar ------> Verizon/Other Stores

Meaning the order of 1 Million technically didn't come from one company, but from "many companies", because after all a distributor just buys stuff and resells to many other companies.

I am curious. How do we know this is not the norm?

I get lots of "tech toys" on-line from Best Buy and Future Shop (and no shoe closet in our house either. LoL ). When the get delivered they often have Ingram Micro/Best Buy or Ingram Micro/Future Shop on the shipping labels and/or packing lists.

So who is to say this is not the norm? I don't know, thus my question.

[DragonFlyer]

Just seen 155 million shorts. Doubt they'll give up without a fight. I bought shares but my wife said I have to hold back enough for a divorce lawyer retainer and a couple of trial dates. Damn they are expensive. But I'm in up to the wife. Who I'm actually kinda fond of.

Welcome aboard. It is quite the ride so buckle up.

[morganplus8]

Morgon, Your inside on ER including SP before and after ER, ER report, possible shorts spint about ER, would be appreciated.

BBNation,

Wow, that's not asking too much!!! Suffice it to say, I am long the stock and no hedge here. The chart pattern is shaping up to be very bullish and it could start as soon as tomorrow:



All of the action will be around the breakout of the sym-triangle, the 50-dma just above it and the 5-dma which has come down this week. We have the trifecta of rallies developing here with three major indexes setting up to go positive. I expected the short position to continue to climb here as the bears can only hold the stock price back by shorting more stock. We have the start of an uptrend line based upon today's higher low and we are parked right under plenty of resistance that will turn bullish as soon as we can scale them. The biggest indicator is the 50-dma, if we clear it we have at least a buck to gain right away. You have to think the shorts are worried here, there is so much press out there about a possible short squeeze, everyone that trades short-term, will be watching to see if they can join in if the numbers are good.

I think the numbers are going to be great, they will easily beat on earnings for several reasons, their CORE program is really working well for them, they finished Q3 with the $ 1 billion in operating cost reductions and Heins said he sees $ 500 million more in there. The staggered roll out of phones keeps the $ 200 million per handset manufacture/launch cost down until sales start to come in and that means most of their expense is advertising. Their cash is important and they will report plenty of cash, something like $ 2.6 billion at least. They will beat on handset sales because they are reporting carrier shipments as sold not sales to carriers or sell-through. The shipments will include re-orders during February as most Countries saw the initial response to sales in the UK and Canada. I do believe the report will be stellar. Then there is America, Heins has to sell the bears on the fact that all of that Enterprise fluffing paid off and the orders are very high indeed. I believe they pre-sold a pile of phones.

As for the number of handsets, the lowest they did on sell-through in Q1 - Q3 was 7.4 million units, they will actually beat this number with the weak inventory levels of the carriers ending 2012. The street sees 6.9 - 7.0 million and I see over 7.5 million handsets easily. The final issue for the bears to latch onto is subs, I think this is where they can say something negative as I see subs possibly dropping 1/2 million despite BB 10 sales and cross platform security sales. The only other thing I can think of is Enterprise and that number should only decline by 5% which is much better than expected. I just think the numbers are too low and BlackBerry is better than that.

He will then talk about next steps, Q10, partnering and BB 10 and how it has proven itself now. The company can move on its strategic review because the market knows BB 10 is the best OS out there today. Heins has always stated that he has options out there and now might be when we hear about some ideas. I personally want him to talk about out-licensing the product as I think they can do well in markets were they don't have competitive hardware. In all, I'm going out on a limb and saying the numbers are better than the shorts can handle. I was shocked at Q3 CORE, they killed it there, they really understood their business model and reduced cost rapidly. If I am right and expense goes up by $ 300 million, we are in for a big surprise. Now don't go thinking I have all of the answers, this is just my personal opinion here! I can't wait to see how we trade tomorrow! Good luck!

[peter9477]

what do the shorts know that we don't?

They know that there's an awful lot of people out there who will blink first.

[Scott Lefebvre]

Been lurking for a while, seems like a great place. Stay Strong try not to sell if you can help it, that only plays into the Shorts hand.
Bought another 1000 shares this morning if it drops after ER I'll buy another bunch..: "In for the long can't go wrong" cool:

[peter9477]

I am curious. How do we know this is not the norm?

I think nobody should let the FUD get to them.

Remember, it's BlackBerry's largest single order ever. It doesn't even matter if it's specifically because Verizon is risk averse and would otherwise place this big an order themselves.

It doesn't actually matter who it is who placed the order, or why.

It's BlackBerry's largest single order ever.

[tmurphx5]

This time of year someone gets Crucified, because of Good Friday the results will come out in the AM Thursday not PM so a form of crucifixion could come early for the shorts or longs. I am long, and believe that the old RIM is finally put to rest at this ER and the new BlackBerry rises up from the dead.

[Shanerredflag]

I've heard that story somewhere...hmmm?

Posted via CB10

[DragonFlyer]

Morgan, I enjoy looking at your charts and explanation of what's going on. I don't understand TA, so your knowledge and input is important to me understanding what I am looking at.
As far as your thoughts on ER I totally agree. My position in this stock has become overweight. Because of this I have been doing as much research on this company as I can to justify my position, and I got to tell you I am very comfortable being overweight.
The streets expectations are so low that BlackBerry can only surprise to the up side.

[morganplus8]

Morgan, I enjoy looking at your charts and explanation of what's going on. I don't understand TA, so your knowledge and input is important to me understanding what I am looking at.
As far as your thoughts on ER I totally agree. My position in this stock has become overweight. Because of this I have been doing as much research on this company as I can to justify my position, and I got to tell you I am very comfortable being overweight.
The streets expectations are so low that BlackBerry can only surprise to the up side.

Amen!

I might be off on a couple of numbers because I don't handle their accounting. Even if some data gets pushed out to Q1 - FY14, the numbers are going to look better in areas of handset sales as the carriers bled themselves dry last year. We paid the price for them clearing the shelves but things are different this time around. You have to love the potential, exponential upside if they hit it out of the park!

The second area is subs, they can count handsets shipped but they can't count them as subs so that number is a bit grey there. The shorts will be all over these numbers as their life depends upon it. At the end of the day, they could be showing a profit and cash near $ 2.8 billion if Heins played the numbers right, I think he did.

Good luck and thanks for the compliment!

[pooger]

My verizon wireless pre-order just got charged to my credit card

Edit: The Verizon Wireless lady on the phone was very excited. She said blackberry people were in the building today showing it off to them and she said she was going to get one even though she thought the company sucked until now. lol

[Andrew4life]

I think nobody should let the FUD get to them.

Remember, it's BlackBerry's largest single order ever. It doesn't even matter if it's specifically because Verizon is risk averse and would otherwise place this big an order themselves.

It doesn't actually matter who it is who placed the order, or why.

It's BlackBerry's largest single order ever.

Actually it matters a lot. Let's take a coffee shop example. There is an office across the street with 10 employees that come and buy coffee daily. One day, the office people decide to send someone to do a coffee run instead of all picking up a coffee themselves. So this one person buys 8 coffees! Wow! Largest customer yet! Business is doing great...........
Except your sales didn't increase, they actually decreased from 10 total to 8 total.


Posted via CB10

[bigbbrybeliever]

Wall Street Journal: Options Traders Foresee �Fireworks� With RIM Earnings
.

Some options traders are wagering that BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. will surprise investors with good news when its latest earnings report hits the tape later this week.

Last Friday�s launch of the newest BlackBerry device underwhelmed investors and the company�s stock price fell 12% from Friday through Monday. But Tuesday�s options trading saw some large bets that the company, which is slated to release fiscal fourth quarter earnings Thursday, will see its shares move higher through the end of this week.

�This is a company that can move significantly, and in the near-term, the options market is predicting some fireworks,� said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer�s Investment Research.

The company�s shares slid after the U.S. launch of Research In Motion�s new touch screen Z10 smartphone Friday. Goldman Sachs Group called the device�s debut at AT&T Inc. T +0.94%stores �disappointing,� and cut the stock to neutral from buy.

On Tuesday, an analyst at Bernstein Research countered, saying in a note that he expects strong earnings from the company. �We expect the stock to respond favorably to the quarter�s reporting,� analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote in his note. Mr. Ferragu said he expects gross margins seven points ahead of consensus expectations.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the BlackBerry maker to report a loss Thursday of 29 cent a share on revenue of about $2.84 billion.

In the options market, the largest trade on the BlackBerry maker�s shares bet that Research In Motion shares would jump more than 7.5% by the end of the week.

An investor bought 10,000 weekly �call� options granting the right to buy one million shares of Research In Motion at $15 apiece through the end of day Friday. With the options costing 56 cents a share, that means the trader counts on the shares rising above $15.56�the �strike� price plus the per-share cost of the options�by the end of the week to profit.

This investor may become very rich when the SP jump 30% on March 28. He or she can make $3.2 million with $0.56 million option cost in less than four days.

[endeevee]

In addition to some of the potential "Beats" mentioned above, I haven't seen much mention of potential app revenue. Admittedly, I'm not sure what the profit margins are on apps and I've read somewhere along the line that they might not be great, but I know personally I've spent roughly $40 on app's in my 5 weeks of z10 ownership and I don't consider myself a heavy app user. A few children's games, a few music albums, etc. Regardless of margin, app revenue is a relatively new game for BlackBerry now that they have capable devices.

I'm holding long through earnings. If we see a meaningful sell off, I'll add. Even realistic bearish estimates have SOP of 12-18/share. In my opinion, volatility is high for sure, but I'm perceiving risk to be low with that in mind. Risk/reward like this doesn't always come knocking.

Posted via CB10

[BBNation]

155 million shorts! holy sh**! This is crazy.

All we've got to do is - not sell our stocks. The only way for price to go down is if somebody was selling. But if we don't sell, then shorts will have to "short" even more to bring price down. But that's okay because they'll eventually have to cover it. So, if they try to artificially bring the price down by shorting (as we, BBRY shareholders, are not selling any real shares) then they'd get screwed whenever it comes time to cover! It'd result in a massive short squeeze!

The company is not going anywhere. It has Z10, Q10 is coming up, and there is a pipeline of apps and new models lined-up for the year. It's going to remain in news and it's going to keep making money.

Is it possible that shorts have to short more and more to keep the price low and scare weak hands ? Just like we longs get sucked in falling knife, shorts being dragged in other way. Now only hope for them is bad ER or good ER with negative spin to get out, if not they will be forced to cover. Also some profit taking might allow them to cover as well. Look what BB has done to us..sleepless nights..lol