[Luke Barrie]

From Jeffries


hockeyguy548 hockeyguy548 • 49 minutes ago Flag5 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Jefferies: Buy rating and $19.50 price target for BlackBerry
Buy

Price Target: $19.50

We checked with 30+ stores following the Z10's launch on 3/22. We think demand is slightly better than our very modest expectations. Our checks also indicate that AT&T Business is seeing significant interest and could account for a meaningful portion of demand. We continue to see large upside to consensus May and Aug Q estimates and that BBRY's MDM opportunity is underappreciated.

AT&T checks. Our checks indicate that initial sell-in appears to be generally 10+ per store. Most cited sales as okay with a few slower and a handful stronger. Some stores were out of stock but expected replenishment shipments this week. Our checks also indicate that AT&T Business is seeing significant interest and could account for a meaningful portion of demand. We note that even if BBRY only has a niche 5% of the U.S. smartphone market with BB10 that represents a substantial rebound from its current Less

Nice to see a positive, balanced report like this. $19.50 is a great target price in my books, and am hoping to see it pushing $17.50 before the earnings

[DragonFlyer]

300,000!
BlackBerry Z10 faces biggest test (video) | Detroit Free Press | freep.com

[Andrew4life]

Yeah, but I don't think $25 is much of a squeeze. I think I'll prepare for $50, dropping back to 18-20 on good ER and a doozie of a rumour. (OK, maybe too much Guinness this weekend!)

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

Going from $15 to $25 is quite a big short squeeze. Thats an increase of 66%!

[sparkaction]

I hoping that BBRY stays right in this price up to earnings release. If it does, it makes holding the stock easier. It becomes a more difficult analysis if the stock runs up to say $18 to $19 by March 27.

Posted via CB10

[Acumenight]

Yup, me too. I can't let bbry get to more than 20% of my portfolio or I will lose all discipline in my strategy. Just hoping for that peak to make money soon.

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

Haha, 20% was where I started about a year ago. Somehow my discipline slipped and slowly made its way to 100%. I have the discipline of Lindsey Lohan.


Posted via Z10

[Jason Cheung]

Small number of reviews, but hey - it's something. Z10 in #1 position on Amazon's top rated cell phones with service plans:
Amazon.com Top Rated: The best in Cell Phones With Service Plans based on Amazon customer reviews

[Superfly_FR]

Trend alert : Goldman Sachs now on neutral.
Beware, this is going to change today's trade for sure.
I stand quiet and watch the upcoming yo-yo, unless the SP dives under my average (~$13.5) by Tuesday.
Until then, just watching. Beware of unpredictable reactions here; don't panic.

disclaimer : the above statement is my personnal perception, I'm not an authorized/professional trading advisor. This is not an advice to trade BBRY stock accordingly. I'm long BBRY.

[Charles Martin1]

Trend alert : Goldman Sachs now on neutral.
Beware, this is going to change today's trade for sure.
I stand quiet and watch the upcoming yo-yo, unless the SP dives under my average (~$13.5) by Tuesday.
Until then, just watching. Beware of unpredictable reactions here; don't panic.

This is one that will cause us to see some real bargains going into ER. Sad to see them do this already.

[Superfly_FR]

This is one that will cause us to see some real bargains going into ER. Sad to see them do this already.

This is a moderate ("conservative" ?) downgrade, IMHO. I believe this can also result in a "wait and see" situation. Volumes will tell ?

[Zarpan]

Trend alert : Goldman Sachs now on neutral.
Beware, this is going to change today's trade for sure.
I stand quiet and watch the upcoming yo-yo, unless the SP dives under my average (~$13.5) by Tuesday.
Until then, just watching. Beware of unpredictable reactions here; don't panic.

Interesting. I'd have to say that the quote about sell-through at most locations being less than 10 per day, and in many being as low as 2-3 per day isn't bad though.

Jankowski expects 2-3 million BB10 sales per quarter. Probably 20-25% of that would come from the US. So 400k -750k from the US. To get 500k sales at the US over a quarter requires 5.5k sales per day. There are something like 25000 stores in the US (AT&T has 6000 corporate stores alone). so each store would need to sell 0.2 BB10 units per day to reach those numbers.

I worked out earlier that Apple (which has crazy launch hype) sold around 7.5x as many iPhone 5's per day over the first weekend compared to the rest of the quarter. So even if the Z10 declined like that - an average of 3 sales per day over the first couple days would still get you to close 1 million sales in the US over a quarter - much higher than Jankowski's sales expectations.

So I'm not really seeing how this launch is disappointing and tepid relative to her expectations.

[Charles Martin1]

This is a moderate ("conservative" ?) downgrade, IMHO. I believe this can also result in a "wait and see" situation. Volumes will tell ?

I believe that the staggered launch is what's hurting things. AT&T's lapdog approach has hurt this dearly...hopefully Verizon will do a better job.

Regarding sales numbers, we are in the dark as much now as we've ever been.

[Superfly_FR]

I believe that the staggered launch is what's hurting things. AT&T's lapdog approach has hurt this dearly...hopefully Verizon will do a better job.

The danger is with those who "only compares with aapl standard", they won't do the maths like Zarpan (thanks).
Therefore my "stay calm and watch" position. We might dive hard at the opening or PM, then ... who knows?

Edit: So far, seems to hold quite ok ...

[Charles Martin1]

Well, we're at $14 even already...down 6% more...glad I held off yet.

[Zarpan]

I believe that the staggered launch is what's hurting things. AT&T's lapdog approach has hurt this dearly...hopefully Verizon will do a better job.

Regarding sales numbers, we are in the dark as much now as we've ever been.

A really nice firestorm would be if the ER numbers are strong, there are some good comments regarding future projections, and the Verizon launch goes well. March 28 would be quite a day then.

[Charles Martin1]

A really nice firestorm would be if the ER numbers are strong, there are some good comments regarding future projections, and the Verizon launch goes well. March 28 would be quite a day then.

Yip. I'm wondering if the Goldman downgrade will prompt a comment from BlackBerry.

[snejpa]

Frankfurt reacts with 6,4 % down in the morning

[Charles Martin1]

It's a perfect day for bears, twisting the unknown, fabricating doubt. Could make for one big light show at the end of the week.

[EvanRitch]

If BlackBerry were only releasing the Z10 then I think overall... as a company they would be doing decent so far. But in 1 month, another great phone is coming for the people who are waiting for the keyboard.

[Jason Cheung]

I'm wondering how these analysts can project these PT changes based on 3 days of anecdotal evidence at best. Why not wait till earnings and put together a report based on real numbers?

[The Selected Fruit]

Jeffries and Goldman Sachs have spoken today. They have taken a very small sampling and analysed the data.

Who made the right call?

I noticed that Frank Boulben in his French TV interview last Friday (thanks Superfly_FR) said the pre-orders at both AT&T and Verizon are very good. Markets trade on credibility and so far the senior management at BBRY have good credibility.

I am inclined to think that the bears such as Colin Gillis was spooked by this and went on a financial news channel Stateside to scaremonger. His PT of $7 would mean that BBRY will be on life support soon.

I am looking forward to the ER for 3 reasons. Sales for the last quarter, pre-orders in the US and forward looking statements; such as Q10 release, products in pipeline and how the marketing is going.

Not long now. GL.

[weekengyip]

I can't fault the downgrade for its definitely a cautionary stance after the poor AT&T reception. TH and BBRY team needs to drum up carrier support for the phone. If they fail with the BB10 hype this time around, the Q10 is likely to falter as well. I honestly think that they overlooked this and felt that the healthy reception in Canada will follow through. With 20 - 30% more marketing efforts by AT&T and Best Buy, it could have been a USD18 stock today. The thought on the start of the trading day for BBRY shares is beginning to send shivers into my spine :/

Also a downside risk to the Q10, is the underwhelming response to street estimates. Think again, would you want to return to a smaller screen say 3.1" on the Q10 after using a phone with larger displays (e.g. 4.0" - 5.5")? Unlikely to convert the existing touch screen users despite being appealing to the existing keypad phone users. 3.7" on the Q10 could have been a saving grace, I reckon.

[Charles Martin1]

I'm wondering how these analysts can project these PT changes based on 3 days of anecdotal evidence at best. Why not wait till earnings and put together a report based on real numbers?

I totally agree. I think the Sachs announcement was a tad premature. However, it's giving us a great bargain.

[greggebhardt]

Yeah, but I don't think $25 is much of a squeeze. I think I'll prepare for $50, dropping back to 18-20 on good ER and a doozie of a rumour. (OK, maybe too much Guinness this weekend!)

Posted via CB10 on a BLACK Z10!

No doubt too much Guinness!

[Charles Martin1]

I wonder if we can expect a price in the low $ 13s or mid $12s prior to ER.

[weekengyip]

I think we shall see weakness on the trading of BBRY Shares until the 28th. If efforts of T-Mobile and Verizon are as bad as AT&T, James Faucette will receive a price for the best call in the tech sector.

This is bad.