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Google Trends03-24-13 12:56 PMLike 5 - interview with Thor from n4bb.com
CEO Thorsten Heins Discusses BlackBerry 10's Launch with N4BB - N4BB03-24-13 01:51 PMLike 3 - Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish
Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19
Lets do some math
2 -3 million BB10s per quarter
Canada has 4% of the BB market
4% of 2-3 million is 80,000 - 120,000
Bell has 28% mobile market share
28% of 80,000 - 120,000 is 22,400 - 33,600
Bell has more than 2,000 stores and authorized dealers across Canada
22,400 - 33,600 divided by 2,000 is 11.2 - 16.8
90 shopping days per quarter
Bell needs to sell 1 BB10 every 5 - 8 days at each location to maintain its fair share in the market
Now if that is not a bearish forcast, I don't know what is.
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has delivered one of the more bullish projections for the company that we’ve heard in recent weeks.BlackBerry 10 quarterly sales estimate: 2 million to 3 million | BGR
Projected to sell at least 2 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones per quarter in 2013.
Lets do the math
Today, AT&T has more than 16,000 retail locations in the U.S. https://forums.crackberry.com/e?link...token=Mlta_d9J
Lets say that each AT&T location (16,000) can sell 1 BB10 per week and multiply it by 13 (52 weeks divided by 4 quarters)
16,000 x 13 = 208,000
AT&T has a 26.6% market share in the U.S. Don't Sweat a BUD Monopoly | InvestorPlace
208,000 divided by 26.6% = 781,955
The BlackBerry subscriber base is 22% in the U.S. Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail
781,955 divided by 22% = 3,554,340
The bottom line: If AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per week at each of their locations and the market shares remain the same, BlackBerry will sell 3,554,340 BB10s per quarter.
Now just imagine AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per day..... I'll let you do the math!Last edited by DragonFlyer; 03-25-13 at 01:11 AM.
03-24-13 01:54 PMLike 10 - Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish (part 2)
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has delivered one of the more bullish projections for the company that we�ve heard in recent weeks.BlackBerry 10 quarterly sales estimate: 2 million to 3 million | BGR
Projected to sell at least 2 million BlackBerry 10 smartphones per quarter in 2013.
Lets do the math
Today, AT&T has more than 16,000 retail locations in the U.S. https://forums.crackberry.com/e?link...token=NA5kT7G8
Lets say that each AT&T location (16,000) can sell 1 BB10 per week and multiply it by 13 (52 weeks divided by 4 quarters)
16,000 x 13 = 208,000
AT&T has a 26.6% market share in the U.S. Don't Sweat a BUD Monopoly | InvestorPlace
208,000 divided by 26.6% = 781,955
The BlackBerry subscriber base is 22% in the U.S. Where RIM's subscribers are - The Globe and Mail
781,955 divided by 22% = 3,554,340
The bottom line: If AT&T can sell 1 BB10 per week at each of their locations and the market shares remain the same, BlackBerry will sell 3,554,340 BB10s per quarter.
Now just emagine AT&T 1 BB10 per day..... I'll let you do the math!
Or maybe start a new thread with this calculation.
And also make it a sticky.
And also make that sticky go on the home page of CB.
And also make it flash.
And also......Last edited by BlackistheBerry; 03-24-13 at 03:02 PM.
03-24-13 02:30 PMLike 3 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorThis needs to be posted on a lot of other threads here. Strange stuff being posted on a lot if threads.
Or maybe start a new thread with this calculation.
And also make it a sticky.
And also make that sticky go on the home page of CB.
And also make it flash.
And also......
Prime to faith it will be
Posted via CB1003-24-13 02:40 PMLike 8 - Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.
Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.
So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?Markymark 23 likes this.03-24-13 03:06 PMLike 1 - Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.
Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.
So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?DragonFlyer and Markymark 23 like this.03-24-13 03:23 PMLike 2 - Okay. So I'm one of the people that are hoping / planning for some kind of squeeze (but I'm still long too, I just find the shorting a bit more suspicious than normal). Anyway, since I can't pay attention to the SP every minute, and I often can't react fast enough to take advantage of most of the spikes and dips, I was thinking that I will put in a sell order for all my shares at say... $100.00 good until end of April.
Now, I know that many of you will think that is just silly /naive but I prefer to think of it as preparing for the best and thinking positive.
So, if anyone else thinks there is a realistic (albeit slim) chance for a squeeze in the next few weeks, how high do you think it would likely go? I know, I know... This is highly unlikely to happen, but hypothetically speaking, how high do you think it would spike? Is $100 too high? $50? $200?
This translates to a max of $20-25 MAX! by the end of April. I think more realistically, we will see $20 if things go well after next week's ER.
That wasn't really a "Natural" short squeeze. The circumstances are very different.
Posted via CB1003-24-13 03:27 PMLike 0 - Based on the best possible estimate, the maximum price this will go to by year end, is around $60. (based on misek's best case scenario estimate) .
This translates to a max of $20-25 MAX! by the end of April. I think more realistically, we will see $20 if things go well after next week's ER.
That wasn't really a "Natural" short squeeze. The circumstances are very different.
Posted via CB10
Worst case, this could go to $10 or less. At least temporarily.
Keep in mind that on Friday this thing dropped $2+ on virtually no news. Imagine where it could go on what is interpreted as bad news.Marc_Paradise and The Selected Fruit like this.03-24-13 03:43 PMLike 2 - interview with Thor from n4bb.com
CEO Thorsten Heins Discusses BlackBerry 10's Launch with N4BB - N4BB
I listened again and I just don't like it when the interviewer is gushing over him like a school girl...lol
He seems pretty relaxed though.Last edited by Charles Martin1; 03-24-13 at 05:22 PM.
03-24-13 03:51 PMLike 0 - 2$+ on no news? Have you been reading what the American Media, WSJ, and CNBC has been saying. You are woefully inaccurate here!
P.S. Volkswagen went to over $800, but only because the majority of the stock was silently picked up by institutions. The shorts were under they impression they had more shares to cover with, but they didn't. This is not the same case with BBRY; however, we are becoming very close to levels where the short float is greater than the shares available in day to day trading (obviously based on the premise institutions aren't trading, and Watsa et all are long only).
Free float: ~484M shares
Institutions: ~261M shares
Shorts: ~147M (more if you count TSX)
03-24-13 03:53 PMLike 4 - interview with Thor from n4bb.com
CEO Thorsten Heins Discusses BlackBerry 10's Launch with N4BB - N4BBShanerredflag and cezley like this.03-24-13 03:54 PMLike 2 - There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.
2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:
The 1 000 000 orders
German Government
U/S sales
Indonesia
Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)
That to me is the kicker...lcjr likes this.03-24-13 04:05 PMLike 1 - 2$+ on no news? Have you been reading what the American Media, WSJ, and CNBC has been saying. You are woefully inaccurate here!
P.S. Volkswagen went to over $800, but only because the majority of the stock was silently picked up by institutions. The shorts were under they impression they had more shares to cover with, but they didn't. This is not the same case with BBRY; however, we are becoming very close to levels where the short float is greater than the shares available in day to day trading (obviously based on the premise institutions aren't trading, and Watsa et all are long only).
Free float: ~484M shares
Institutions: ~261M shares
Shorts: ~147M (more if you count TSX)
Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.03-24-13 04:11 PMLike 0 - I wouldn't call any of that news. So are you saying this thing can't / won't fall to $10 or less?
Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.
As a first time investor, I mentioned previously that I felt the market is ****ed. Friday confirmed my hypothesis in that people dumped shares on evidence that was miniscule. ****, the no-line up scenario seemed to have a bigger impact on the stock than the record order just last week.
And here is a good read.
Why Did The BlackBerry Share Price Take A Hit, Friday? - Forbes03-24-13 04:13 PMLike 0 - Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.
Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expenses. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.
Agree with you on the no-line up scenarios 100%. The market is completely irrational. However, when huge blocks of stock (3M) plus shares are shorted in tandem with awful news reports from CNBC / WSJ, stops are hit on the way down, and panic ensues. That is exactly what happened on Friday! To believe that a company will not be successful because there are no line-ups, 2 hours into the morning, on a workday, is absolutely ridiculous.
I wouldn't call any of that news. So are you saying this thing can't / won't fall to $10 or less?
Compared to the sh ! t from Friday, a much anticipated ER that delivers mediocrity will be real news. Christ man, December's ER did well to blow away expectations but fell down in one area that was not even factually driven. Think of what can happen in an ER that is going to be as complicated as this one.bungaboy and Markymark 23 like this.03-24-13 04:17 PMLike 2 - There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.
2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:
The 1 000 000 orders
German Government
U/S sales
Indonesia
Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)
That to me is the kicker...
Just try and be grounded and accept that this thing can tank temporarily and take another 3 months or longer to see much life breathed into it.03-24-13 04:18 PMLike 0 - There will be no short squeeze. Just sit back and hope this thing goes to 20 by next month.
2700 Lined up North American businesses to use BB... Also next earnings (June) report should account for:
The 1 000 000 orders
German Government
U/S sales
Indonesia
Possible other institutions (DoD etc.)
That to me is the kicker...Kid Vibe likes this.03-24-13 04:20 PMLike 1 -
We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!03-24-13 04:21 PMLike 9 - Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.
Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expensets. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.03-24-13 04:22 PMLike 0 - We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!03-24-13 04:32 PMLike 0
- Let's agree to disagree on what we believe to be "news", then.
Losing 1M subs, and TH absolutely botching the service revenue question is cause for major concern. Especially when you consider that service revenue is the company's high margin, cash cow. Providing approx $1B/quarter, they have covered the majority of the firm's operating expenses. TH being unable to explicitly state the future of them is cause for concern, and the exact reason the shorts took advantage of BlackBerry in December's Q3 earnings call.
Agree with you on the no-line up scenarios 100%. The market is completely irrational. However, when huge blocks of stock (3M) plus shares are shorted in tandem with awful news reports from CNBC / WSJ, stops are hit on the way down, and panic ensues. That is exactly what happened on Friday! To believe that a company will not be successful because there are no line-ups, 2 hours into the morning, on a workday, is absolutely ridiculous.BlackistheBerry and bungaboy like this.03-24-13 04:33 PMLike 2 - We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
I am hoping that we bounce off 14,70 area into 15,50ish before ER. - thats where I will close some positions I opened at 14,5. and will wait to see what happens.BlackistheBerry likes this.03-24-13 04:50 PMLike 1 - We were down $ .10/shr this past week in a dull market. Why expect so much more from this company ahead of some very important numbers is beyond me. I would be happy if we can hold $ 15 and pop on positive news on Thursday setting us up for the Q10 in a couple of more weeks. The sales projections posted in this thread of 1/phone/week from AT&T alone are surprising considering Q10 is coming right around the corner. Heins isn't excited for nothing, he isn't talking trash against Samsung and that other phone company, he is seeing the numbers and loves them. Can't wait for those numbers!
I myself have never experienced an ER. What I've heard can happen are dips due to people profit taking if there is a build up just before than... So who knows really... It's the end of the month and people will need money to pay bills!03-24-13 04:53 PMLike 0
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