[bungaboy]

Remember that with BB10 there are no "subscribers" anymore. A loss of 15 mil is attrition as users on the "old" BB platform upgrade to new devices (which may or may not be BBs).

Bell Canada insists on BB plans at present for Z10. Isn't that a subscription? I don't know. That's why I ask.

[Charles Martin1]

Remember that with BB10 there are no "subscribers" anymore. A loss of 15 mil is attrition as users on the "old" BB platform upgrade to new devices (which may or may not be BBs).

We know that but these short - dogs will twist it as much as they can. If there aren't stellar numbers on the 28th then this thing is going to be manipulated down to the $13s

[cjcampbell]

It seems that we've found our happy ground in and around the $15.80 area. Not a bad place to settle in to for the day

[Lehomer]

Rogers brings NFC payments to Android and BlackBerry smartphones | IT Business

[bigbbrybeliever]

Morgan Stanley raises BlackBerry (Nasdaq: BBRY) two-notches from Underweight to Overweight, boosting its price target from $10 up to $22.

Analyst Ehud Gelblum sees a mix-shift at BlackBerry lifting margins "even after accounting for the steep decline in higher margin services revenue."

Gelblum is adopting a new sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology on the known assets in valuing BlackBerry given lessening hope for the company to occupy the third spot for mobile OS market share. He explains, "that with Windows Phone 8 lacking traction in the marketplace, perennial Android vendors, LG, buying webOS from HP, and Samsung trialing the Tizen operating system later this year while doing its best to differentiate its smartphones from standard Android, we believe the smartphone market may yet look to move off its two-OS system, making BBRY�s BB10 OS potentially valuable to other industry players looking to diversify."

Discussions with developers have also become positive. Many are now on "wait-and-see" rather than completely writing off BB10. BlackBerry currently has about 100,00 apps, including 90 percent of the top 100. Most were ported from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android. Gelblum says apps are a key component in launching a new OS and this level is better than initial expected by this time.

BlackBerry is still probably selling its BB10 OS to existing BB7 users and Gelblum doesn't expect investors to see a noticeable difference until the November quarter, particularly when most enterprise customers won't make a decision on switching to BB10 until late summer, at best.

As for subs, MS is looking at a drop from 77 million in FY12 down to 57 million in FY15. With that number and assuming that 38 percent of BB7 users plan to upgrade to BB10, the firms estimates start panning out.

Gelblum sees BlackBerry's Device unit getting back to breakeven by fiscal Q314. He sees BB10 device gross margins at about 20 percent with a ASP of $450 and bill of materials (BOM) at $300 to $350. "We are assuming a rapid decline in BB10 ASPs to $343 by FQ414 from $450 at launch in FQ413, a 30% decline, due both to tough competition within the smart- phone market and to a mix shift to lower-end models," he noted.

The outlook is grim for Services, Gelblum commented, given that BB10 doesn't use NOC the same way as previous versions. He's modeling that consumers contribute zero to services revenue, from $3.50 per month now, and sees little incentive for consumers to want to pay a fee for services they can get for free.

Enterprise subs will make up 12 percent of BlackBerry's total count in FY15, from 17 percent currently. Gelblum also thinks half of enterprise will use BB10 for MDM.

SOTP puts Services with a value of $2.9 billion, Patents are flat at $1.41 billion, Fixed Assets increases $1 billion to $2.45 billion, working capital moves from $30 million up to $2.16 billion, and Cash is at $2.47 billion. Net asset value per share is than about $21.74.

Bear case - Management pursues BB10 strategy, but product launch fail. Management funds Devices with cash generated from Services, leading to ongoing discounting of Devices. No value is assigned to inventory given that it will slip into obsolescence. Investors will then assign a lower value on patents and fixed assets at that point. Bear case price target is $10.

Bull case - BlackBerry management stabilizes handset margins and market share with the launch of BB10, but Service revenues still fall. Overall revenue in this case will drop 7 percent from $17.2 billion from FY12, gross margin at 34 percent, operating margins at 9 percent, leading to EPS of $2.32 by FY14. Bull case price target of $35.

Currently about 10 analysts have BlackBerry at Buy, 26 at Neutral, and 21 with a Sell-equivalent rating. The Street's average price target ahead of this recent boost was $12.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on BlackBerry click here. For more ratings news on BlackBerry click here.

Shares of BlackBerry closed at $15.03 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $12.55 to $17.22.

[Shanerredflag]

Appears the trading programs have been reprogrammed...up up and away.

[Thunderbuck]

Bell Canada insists on BB plans at present for Z10. Isn't that a subscription? I don't know. That's why I ask.

So far as I can tell, some Bell reps were insisting on this at the launch in error, and so far as I know they have discontinued this practice.

In any event, BB themselves are not collecting subscription fees for Z10 users.

[bigbbrybeliever]

My Take on today's MS' upgrade.
1. All the things in the report were known by most of us (long investors), he just repeated what we already knew.
2. The reason that he changed the tone from bear to neutral (soon will be bullish) could be that the short positions of his clients have been covered and many of them went long.
This reminds the current retail shorts that how quickly their bear "friendly" analysts can turn against them when those who paid them (the analysts) exist out the short position and went long.
I will say, it is a so so news for our long but a horrible news for the shorts because more powerful hedge funds (the clients of MS, GS and Jeffrey, etc) are getting behind the stock now.
The long can sleep better while the nightmares for the shorts are just starting.

[DragonFlyer]

Morgan Stanley raises BlackBerry (Nasdaq: BBRY)

Shares of BlackBerry closed at $15.03 yesterday, with a 52 week range of $12.55 to $17.22.

52 week low is $6.22 - the range has problems?

[Bugmapper]

52 week low is $6.22 - the range has problems?

I think that is YTD not 52 week

edit... hmmm... not quite YTD either....

[ItsTheBox]

Our buddies at Pacific crest reiterated their sell recommendation on cnbc

[morlock_man]

Appears the trading programs have been reprogrammed...up up and away.

[Marc_Paradise]

Our buddies at Pacific crest reiterated their sell recommendation on cnbc

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

At least right up until heins pulls a heins on the earning call and sends shares tanking gain



Posted via CB10

[bigbbrybeliever]

Good morning!
Not much to report here, we formed a pennant over the last few days when we pulled back for options expiry meaning that we would likely drift higher in the days ahead. Then along came this report and pushed us much higher than anyone expected:

The TA is really simple here, we have little in the way of resistance all the way up to $ 17.18/shr now and the slower the move the better here. We want the rally to last and not go crazy again leading into earnings. We need to get more analysts to do exactly what MS did, write a neutral report, one where they can upgrade it again after earnings. The more we get targets over $ 20.00/shr the better. MS has set the stage to bump up their target in 2 weeks to the high $ 20.00's and that's how you gain on $ 20.00/shr and hold it for awhile. This report is one of the best to come out for reasons pointed out on this thread, it is very conservative, it can be increased after earnings and it has the perfect target price to make the bears nervous.

I cannot say any better that what you stated. Thank you Morgan.

[Markymark 23]

BBRY will be debated "did you miss the run" on CNBC Halftime in about 1 minute....take a look if you can.

Edit 3 minutes later...WOW, do those guys ever have influence. Najarian and others agree the Morgan Stanley analysis was conservative. Even mentioned BBRY and Apple in the same sentence that for a change wasn't adversarial. Nice to see a 180 once in awhile although it makes me sick that these turncoats can so casually get away with this manipulative flip-flopping. In our favour for a change though.

[DragonFlyer]

Our buddies at Pacific crest reiterated their sell recommendation on cnbc

Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) Upgraded By Pacific Crest to Outperform

There are more upgrades for the Apple Inc.(NASDAQ:AAPL) stock, though it has run quite a bit and has been regularly hitting new highs and creating new records.

Andy Hargreaves of Pacific Crest upgraded the stock to `Outperform' with a price target of $690 citing material improvements in yields of components for the next iPhone model.

He has estimated that including the new phone, expected to be unveiled on September 12, an additional 20 million units of its phones will be sold this year, topping his original estimates of 163 million units.

Hargreaves added that the upsides for the stock could range between $720 and $750 a share.

[Marc_Paradise]

16 again, I wonder if we'll push a new hod.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Rogers brings NFC payments to Android and BlackBerry smartphones | IT Business

That's a long time coming. I know there are those leary of using mobile payments still, but this is part of the future. Learn it and enjoy it. Blackberry secure!

[bungaboy]

$16.02! That is cool.

[tmurphx5]

More positive spin from seeking alpha team ...

10 Reasons To Go Long BlackBerry - Seeking Alpha

[duckJAI]

Tried to buy some April 20 $20 calls at 32 cents but missed it!

Dammit!!! Only a week until ER and need to load up before then.

[take99]

Guys, Dude just PM'd me, gas prices in Novokuznetsk are dropping big time, you know what this means for us: BUY BUY BUY!

[bungaboy]

$16.09. Ain't that fine?

[Charles Martin1]

$16.09. Ain't that fine?

[StormieTwo]

I wouldn't even consider putting my banking info on an android phone, Europe reports billions of stolen euros due to all the malware available through android play.
BB is a different beast, I'd be happy to activate NFC payments on my 9380 but I'm with Bell, so I'll have to wait until my contract runs out or they get with the program...