[Shanerredflag]

Hmmm...15.90 seems to be support...that would be a beautiful thing when the big market opens.

Posted via CB10

[BThunderW]

Nice upgrade. Funny thing is, we've all seen it coming. Few of us expected a beginning of a rally into ER this week. These Analysts are becoming nothing if not predictable.

My fear right now is that they'll once again attempt to "sell the news" on ER. If this stock flies before earnings it might be a hard drop. If you're not in this long term hedge accordingly.

I trust Blackberry, I just don't trust these so called Analysts

[Shanerredflag]

True true

Posted via CB10

[morlock_man]

Nice upgrade. Funny thing is, we've all seen it coming. Few of us expected a beginning of a rally into ER this week. These Analysts are becoming nothing if not predictable.

My fear right now is that they'll once again attempt to "sell the news" on ER. If this stock flies before earnings it might be a hard drop. If you're not in this long term hedge accordingly.

I trust Blackberry, I just don't trust these so called Analysts

The last ER drop was a hiccup cause by service revenue questions. It's not like thats been happening with all of them.

I'm not expecting a drop on this ER, I'm expecting a rather large gap upwards.

[gilmanhlee]

This guy... seriously?

"If Apple or Samsung released the BlackBerry Z10, everyone would call it boring. But those two companies probably wouldn't have introduced a device with such fanfare. BlackBerry, of course, had no choice."

"The browser is slow, unintuitive and unattractive."

BlackBerry Z10 review: A noble failure

[OMGitworks]

Nice upgrade. Funny thing is, we've all seen it coming. Few of us expected a beginning of a rally into ER this week. These Analysts are becoming nothing if not predictable.

My fear right now is that they'll once again attempt to "sell the news" on ER. If this stock flies before earnings it might be a hard drop. If you're not in this long term hedge accordingly.

I trust Blackberry, I just don't trust these so called Analysts

I agree 1000%. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock run up and then sell off at or after ER. By next Friday, we could be below 15. After that, I think reality sets in and the stock goes higher, but I would not be surprised to see an attack on BBRY around the ER. The shorts could easily orchestrate one by spinning whatever info is in the ER and conf. call. People who believe in BBRY should be prepared to ride out the storm if it comes. GLTA!

[BThunderW]

I don't expect a huge jump upwards unless BBRY provides extremely positive guidance.

As far as the drop, Blackberry hasn't actually indicated how they'll offset the service revenue drop, if they still don't on provide clear answers on this, expect this to be played again.

I hope to be proven wrong but be prepared for anything.

The last ER drop was a hiccup cause by service revenue questions. It's not like thats been happening with all of them.

I'm not expecting a drop on this ER, I'm expecting a rather large gap upwards.

[mikev85]

Today will be interesting to watch to say the least

[OMGitworks]

This guy... seriously?

"If Apple or Samsung released the BlackBerry Z10, everyone would call it boring. But those two companies probably wouldn't have introduced a device with such fanfare. BlackBerry, of course, had no choice."

"The browser is slow, unintuitive and unattractive."

BlackBerry Z10 review: A noble failure

I agree that that section of the piece is not accurate (I get my z10 next TH so can't say for sure) but the rest of the piece is pretty accurate. He says great design, best keyboard and hits it for the lack of main stream apps - accurate but who cares). His biggest criticism in my book and the one we haven't talked about recently is that it is "late." Not late in terms of what BBRY promised, but late in actually getting THAT device to market. This device, released 6 months ago for the Christmas season would have been a huge success. Now we will see how it does, but it does feel 6 months too late v the market and competitors and specs. As we saw with Samsung and AAPL taking a beating, the market waits for no one and can be punishing. Can't wait until I get my z10 next week but down here in the states, I just don't see the buzz for it.

[Markymark 23]

Tomorrow is going to be interesting,any predictions on BBRY.

How prophetic. Wondered what you meant by that when I read it last night. Good call !!!

[morlock_man]

I don't expect a huge jump upwards unless BBRY provides extremely positive guidance.

As far as the drop, Blackberry hasn't actually indicated how they'll offset the service revenue drop, if they still don't on provide clear answers on this, expect this to be played again.

I hope to be proven wrong but be prepared for anything.

Depends on Friday's launch. There's been a lot of negative sentiment in the US market that's been negatively affecting the SP. But that can only hold up for so long if they start seeing line ups for the phone post-launch.

I'd expect a run up to Friday, then a gap upwards if there are line ups and evidence of consumers switching from other platforms. Then another jump upwards at the ER, with a minor sell off starting on Monday that'll bring the stock back down.

[DragonFlyer]

Here is a good article
Now Is The Time To Buy BlackBerry - Seeking Alpha

Improving Fundamentals And Cash Burn Under Control

BlackBerry has not gotten back into the black so to say. But they have lost less money than expected for the last two quarters. Furthermore, they have managed to hold on to their cash. Many projected they would be out of cash by now. Nevertheless, BlackBerry has done a tremendous job managing their burn rate and cash levels have remained intact.

The company is vastly undervalued by industry and historical standards trading at a nearly 20% discount to book value and 10 times free cash flow. Blackberry was previously trading on par with Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG).



If BlackBerry can simply get the devices out to the current user base ready to upgrade they should look great. The year over year numbers will be impressive. The point to focus on regarding the fundamentals is the improving numbers going forward. With a successful launch of the new products the fundamentals should be much improved.

The Competition Is Softer than Expected

That fact of the matter is the BlackBerry Z10 is a revolutionary product and some of the major competitors have seemed to have missed the mark. The Apple iPhone 5 has received complaints for not having a large enough screen, a weak battery and no new features. Google Android phone, the Samsung Elect Ltd. (SSNLF.PK) Galaxy S IV, was recently launched and seemed to fall flat with complaint that it does not live up to the hype. The plethora of phones put out by Nokia (NOK) using Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 8 haven't seemed to be able to pick up any meaningful traction or market share either. The door is wide open for BlackBerry as far as I'm concerned.

The Stock Has Strong Momentum

Strong 6 Month Uptrend Intact

BlackBerry has been on a roll since October 2012. The stock has had many voluminous moves over the past six months to the upside. Nevertheless, currently the stock is hugging the bottom of the uptrend line which is just where I like to pick up shares. See chart below.



Just Broke out of Long-term Downtrend

Although BlackBerry has doubled in the past six months, it is still trading many times below its historic average. Even so, with the recent move upward BlackBerry has finally broken out of its long-term downtrend which is very bullish. See chart below.



Cup And Handle Breakout Looming

The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks. There are two parts to the pattern the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. After the cup is formed a trading range develops on the right hand side which is referred to as the handle. Subsequently a breakout occurs signaling the continuation of the advance. The earnings report could be the catalyst for the next leg up. See chart below.



The Bottom Line

Blackberry's new products have been long awaited. With the launch of the BlackBerry Z10, I posit the sales numbers will impress and guidance will be lifted. This inevitably leads to analysts upgrades which should have a positive effect on stock price going forward. With an earnings report looming, I see now as a buying opportunity. I posit they will beat expectations. The risk reward looks favorable at this point. Blackberry has positive momentum, improving fundamentals and solid catalysts for upside. The three main things I look for in a stock.

[AlexejKir]

This might be actually quite a good day.. just hope it holds the gains...

[Shanerredflag]

Smart to protect though...I'm not thinking there will be lineups...just like Canada it seems there is a cell shop or kiosk every quarter mile in populated areas to purchase. Apple only sells through their own shops the first day or two to get the photo Opp and buzz going.

What I do expect is strong sales and stock shortages for the first 6 weeks due to poor forecasting of demand by carriers. What way that gets spun is anyone's guess. Unfortunately we will be waiting till June for those numbers...slow and steady over next several ER's is my guess.

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

This guy... seriously?

"If Apple or Samsung released the BlackBerry Z10, everyone would call it boring. But those two companies probably wouldn't have introduced a device with such fanfare. BlackBerry, of course, had no choice."

"The browser is slow, unintuitive and unattractive."

BlackBerry Z10 review: A noble failure

I wonder who butters his bread...

[DragonFlyer]

another 6% pop at opening???

[Charles Martin1]

another 6% pop at opening???

If so, it's going to trigger some shorts to cover.

[Markymark 23]

CNBC's Melissa Lee just called BBRY "the little engine that could". Cramer finally conceded that "BBRY is not as bad as it used to be". They tried to make light of the Morgan Stanley analysis but guess what....lost for words! Lol, pretty good stuff!!

[take99]

Wow, picked the wrong day to sleep in an extra 10 mins!

[Charles Martin1]

CNBC's Melissa Lee just called BBRY "the little engine that could". Cramer finally conceded that "BBRY is not as bad as it used to be". Lol, pretty good stuff!!

I am floored!

[take99]

My account is showing 16.20 tsx!!

[Shanerredflag]

I wonder who butters his bread...

K Y

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

TSX up 7%

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

I wonder if there's going to be a bear raid

[AlexejKir]

not sure we are going to hold this..