[Bugmapper]

Analysts of the RBC Dominion Securities have increased the number of Research In Motion Ltd(NASDAQ:BBRY) or Blackberry Z10 smartphones that they expect would be sold by Research In Motion in the fourth fiscal quarter and this step has been taken keeping in mind, the amount of positive momentum that BlackBerry 10 seems to have struck up with the wireless carriers as well as retailers at the global level.

RBC increased the estimates of the sales for BlackBerry 10 for the February quarter to 500,000 devices from 350,000 which thereby maintains an estimate of 2 million BB10 devices for the quarter of May. Mark Sue and Paul Treiber, RBC analysts have cited strong interest in the United Kingdom as well as other markets and the huge 1 million units order for BlackBerry and stated in their note that there are a number of points that suggest that in the February quarter, the BlackBerry 10 will sell more than the expectations of the Wall Street.

RBC has however still warned that Research In Motion’s comeback is still not certain and added that the success of the BlackBerry 10 will be dependent upon their United States market which is extremely crucial for the company. This is because it is the single largest market of BlackBerry though it has successfully been able to expand itself overseas. But as far as the analysts are concerned, the United States market will be quite difficult to recapture.

The shares of Research In Motion on the other hand are still quite volatile whereby there was an increase of 8% after the news of the big order and then another increase of 14% when the rumor of the takeover was afloat. Another factor that has added to the confusion is the delay of the smartphone in the United States.

[BBNation]

Here is what happened to AAPL

[DragonFlyer]

Thanks take99 for the find
BlackBerry chief lays out survival plan and says iPhone is old news

rapidly advancing global smartphone market has left Apple�s iPhone in its wake
100,000 native apps available for its Z10 devices in time for the US launch later this week
Instagram and Netflix were being won over by the reaction to its new BlackBerry 10 (BB10) operating system
the rate of innovation is so high in our industry that if you don�t innovate at that speed you can be replaced pretty quickly
iPhone, with all due respect for what this invention was all about is now five years old.�
BlackBerry phones had surpassed the iPhone was in the ability to multi-task - running multiple apps at once
Launching BB10 just put us on the starting grid of the wider mobile computing grand prix
Mr Heins cited the quiet period ahead of quarterly reporting as a reason why he couldn�t disclose early sales figures for the BB10 devices
�In the context of the financial viability of the company that is where I shake my head sometimes and wonder what everyone is talking about. The company has no debt, I will report pretty good cash position by the end of March in my earnings call, so I think we did a really diligent job in, not just keeping the company afloat, but also bringing it back to health,� Mr Heins said
establishing BB10 as a broader mobile computing platform

I think those are some fighten words.

[Charles Martin1]

Helping out with this link to the article, it was originally posted by sonbuster in its own thread. A MUST read cause he talks about a heck of a lot more than the quote captured by Take99. I've actually read it 3 times now and am shocked at a couple of things he elaborates on. Hope the N/A media picks it up in the a.m. It's got the potential to cause bit of a stir. Quite a bit of a stir actually. What a classy way to blow off steam btw...in the middle of it all giving credit to Apple where credit is due. Wow.

BlackBerry chief lays out survival plan and says iPhone is old news

Overall it was a great interview but "pretty good cash"...doesn't come across as terribly confident...this is the kind of foot in your mouth stuff that he has a habit of doing.

[fedakd]

Agree here, but he has to be careful with what he says. He probably can't say, "great cash position". What im more interested in, is his interpreted meaning of ..."not just keeping the company afloat, but also bringing it back to health,”"

Overall it was a great interview but "pretty good cash"...doesn't come across as terribly confident...this is the kind of foot in your mouth stuff that he has a habit of doing.

[Bugmapper]

Here is what happened to AAPL

Looking at that graph I see no correlation between Google and apple. There is just as much time when they are in synch as when they are out of synch. There are too many other variables with those companies to relate the ups and downs to one single product.

[Charles Martin1]

Agree here, but he has to be careful with what he says. He probably can't say, "fantastic or amazing cash position". What im more interested in, his his interpreted meaning of ..."not just keeping the company afloat, but also bringing it back to health,”"

Yes that was a strong finish. He is definitely speaking more confidently. I just hope he doesn't get overly relaxed and say something requiring damage control. We're in an overly sensitive position at the moment.

[Markymark 23]

Overall it was a great interview but "pretty good cash"...doesn't come across as terribly confident...this is the kind of foot in your mouth stuff that he has a habit of doing.

Yup, agreed. But he's got to be careful. And because he's so darned understated, I'll take a leap and interpret what he really wanted to say....."I will report we've got a f...king boatload of cash and by the end of March the tech world will be kissing our arses". Or something like that anyways.

[Charles Martin1]

Yup, agreed. But he's got to be careful. And because he's so darned understated, I'll take a leap and interpret what he really wanted to say....."I will report we've got a f...king boatload of cash and by the end of March the tech world will be kissing our arses". Or something like that anyways.

Lol

[BBNation]

We all know that TH is not good communicator and usually does the damage when he speaks. But one thing to notice that he seems to be very bullish and confident in last 2 months then ever, may be that is what CEO supposed to do but I have not seen any sign of him showing any weakness. He credited apple few times and acknowledged that RIM screwed up which shows his honesty. The previous management never admitted as much he did..let's see how his words twisted and affects the SP

As BB said previously that they had planned long time ago that BB's cash will not drop below 2bln. My opinion is that they might report around 2.5 billion cash on mar 28 due to BB7 devices with BIS fees and close to1 million z10 with good margin .

[fedakd]

Even just a few months ago, Thorsten was quoted in saying, "BlackBerry is not out of the woods yet". He seems substantially more confident on BlackBerry's current position, especially with that "back to health" comment.

Yes that was a strong finish. He is definitely speaking more confidently. I just hope he doesn't get overly relaxed and say something requiring damage control. We're in an overly sensitive position at the moment.

[Markymark 23]

Hmmmm. Been catching up on all the latest euro trash (Cyprus's brilliant plan to tax bank depositors for bailout bucks) and the ripple effect it might cause. Their "today" market and the euro is looking a little bleak, our tomorrow on the Nasdaq/TSX might follow. Darn, just when things were getting interesting.

[DragonFlyer]

Overall it was a great interview but "pretty good cash"...doesn't come across as terribly confident...this is the kind of foot in your mouth stuff that he has a habit of doing.

Apple - $137billion - really good cash
BlackBerry - $?billion - pretty good cash

[Charles Martin1]

Apple - $137billion - really good cash
BlackBerry - $?billion - pretty good cash

Lol...no comparison really. The amount of cash is great if it's all he needs to implement their plans. Pretty good means I wish I had more...

He just needs to be careful. His director of communications should be all over this stuff. When he speaks, these facking short - dogs are salivating over the seemingly smallest details that hint at any weakness and then blow it up. His job is to mind what he says and minimize any need for damage control.

[JLagoon]

Just don't say, "we'll do the Muhammad Ali thing in round 8." again.

[DragonFlyer]

Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish

Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19

Lets do some math
2 -3 million BB10s per quarter
Canada has 4% of the BB market
4% of 2-3 million is 80,000 - 120,000
Bell has 28% mobile market share
28% of 80,000 - 120,000 is 22,400 - 33,600
Bell has more than 2,000 stores and authorized dealers across Canada
22,400 - 33,600 divided by 2,000 is 11.2 - 16.8
90 shopping days per quarter
Bell needs to sell 1 BB10 every 5 - 8 days at each location to maintain its fair share in the market

Now if that is not a bearish forcast, I don't know what is.

[fedakd]

Certainly puts things in perspective (in a good way), Thanks for that DragonFlyer. I can't even begin to imagine what the Bear's "Bearish" case would be then!

Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish

Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19

Lets do some math
2 -3 million BB10s per quarter
Canada has 4% of the BB market
4% of 2-3 million is 80,000 - 120,000
Bell has 28% mobile market share
28% of 80,000 - 120,000 is 22,400 - 33,600
Bell has more than 2,000 stores and authorized dealers across Canada
22,400 - 33,600 divided by 2,000 is 11.2 - 16.8
90 shopping days per quarter
Bell needs to sell 1 BB10 every 5 - 8 days at each location to maintain its fair share in the market

Now if that is not a bearish forcast, I don't know what is.

[BBNation]

Why The Bulls Are Even Bearish

Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year
Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski has a buy signal on BlackBerry with a target of $19

Lets do some math
2 -3 million BB10s per quarter
Canada has 4% of the BB market
4% of 2-3 million is 80,000 - 120,000
Bell has 28% mobile market share
28% of 80,000 - 120,000 is 22,400 - 33,600
Bell has more than 2,000 stores and authorized dealers across Canada
22,400 - 33,600 divided by 2,000 is 11.2 - 16.8
90 shopping days per quarter
Bell needs to sell 1 BB10 every 5 - 8 days at each location to maintain its fair share in the market

Now if that is not a bearish forcast, I don't know what is.

I think you need to read it again,what they are saying BB will sell 2-3 mil BB10 devices only which does not include bb7 devices. BB will sell BB7 devices until the end of 2013 and until BB10 becomes cheaper to make for developing nations..BY that time superphone series such as aristo for developed markets and current bb10 flagship specs for low end markets. BB7 will keep bringing the BIS revenue during the transition period until BB10 devices being sold just like any other smartphone without service revenue attached.

[DragonFlyer]

I think you need to read it again,what they are saying BB will sell 2-3 mil BB10 devices only which does not include bb7 devices. BB will sell BB7 devices until the end of 2013 and until BB10 becomes cheaper to make for developing nations..BY that time superphone series such as aristo for developed markets and current bb10 flagship specs for low end markets. BB7 will keep bringing the BIS revenue during the transition period until BB10 devices being sold just like any other smartphone without service revenue attached.

"the analyst expects to see BlackBerry 10 sales of two to three million units each quarter for the rest of the year"
Goldman: BlackBerry 10 to sell 2 million to 3 million units per quarter for the rest of this year

[Superfly_FR]

Disclaimer : I hold BBRY shares as an individual and this is not an advice to invest/trade BBRY/BB stock.
Do your own research and/or rely on professional advice before engaging your money.
Whatever you decide to do, never engage a penny more than those you can afford to lose 100%.

Hello Guys, this is Monday and we have 10 days left to Earnings Call.
What is the situation now ?

1. They.didn't.fail
This is #1 because most analysts were forecasting against that 18 months ago.
The "Mission: Impossible" season 1 ends well

2. We don't know ... but we know
Sales have been good, even very good, over the "street consensus" and BB initial expectations.

3. Hardware gross margins are back
With the rumored ASP ($500 or such), we know the device is generating gross margin.
This gross margin can be affected by launch marketing/advertising/promotion costs, but this is temporary (in the current proportion). So even if there's a *reasonable* cash leak, it only pinpoint that a massive effort has been made in launch promotion; BB is not shy: they're confident. So much they can dare to invest a large amount of cash now to generate more soon (but March 28th may be a short deadline to catch these ROI).
Sign of the times : It's not a defensive position anymore; "let's Rock'n'Roll this". Yeah.

4. BlackBerry is not apple, not Google but more likely compares to (and beats) MS (on the phone segment)
Stay in line with the plan : BB will not lead the market this quarter, nor the (couple of) next one(s). The plan was : "back to a solid #3 position". I believe this is done where Z10 have been launched already, as W8 phones do not seem to sell that well and expectations have been beaten for the Z10.

5. Whatever the sales are, the brand image is changing
In social medias, in the press, on TV, in reviews, try to find now what was the mantra 18 months ago (ex : "DOA", "Too little too late", "Antiquated", "Bankers and Lawyers tool", etc). You won't find. This is what you'll likely find now : "Innovative", "Surprising", "Intuitive", "great" and even ... "cool" (and still "secure", sometimes in the same sentence: can you believe that ?). THIS is the overall perception about the BRAND. And nowadays, a product is nothing without a solid brand image (lesson learned from aapl).
This is - beside the amazing device/OS launched - one of the greatest achievement of the BlackBerry team.

6. There are some good surprises, above "the plan" expectations
One of the more appealing "stat" of the launch is the proportion of non BB users embracing the Z10. The initial goal was to seduce and bring back enthusiasm within the BB community. They've done more and I believe the Q10 release will more likely amplify both the current BB users and some Android Keyboard fans switch. Don't forget the Q10; the devices range is only "half-filled" (1/6 filled, actually) right now !

There is more to say, but I don't want to overheat your brain with Mooooh decryption on an early Monday!

So, whatever happens on the 28th and whatever the stock value goes to, we've reached the mandatory first step : get things done and take BlackBerry back in the game. Stay calm, be confident: this was probably the toughest one to achieve.

I'm bullish, I'm long: more than ever.

[greggebhardt]

I find it very hard to compare Apple and Blackberry. Maybe in a few years but not now. Blackberry has a lot of things to do before it makes a come back that would allow you to compare the two companies.

[Charles Martin1]

Hmmmm. Been catching up on all the latest euro trash (Cyprus's brilliant plan to tax bank depositors for bailout bucks) and the ripple effect it might cause. Their "today" market and the euro is looking a little bleak, our tomorrow on the Nasdaq/TSX might follow. Darn, just when things were getting interesting.

Finally drove gold up past $1600

[Superfly_FR]

Finally drove gold up past $1600

[rant, out of thread topic]
This Cyprus government / EU governance have gone crazy. Such a measure could result in a bank run in other EU countries . Can't understand.
[/rant]

[Marc_Paradise]

Mr Heins cited the quiet period ahead of quarterly reporting as a reason why he couldn?t disclose early sales figures for the BB10 devices, but said the company had been pleasantly surprised by the number of customers leaving rival platforms to come to BB10.

This concerns me if I read between the lines. He went from saying loudly that the company had been pleasantly surprised by early sales numbers, to being pleasantly surprised by customers leaving rival platforms...


Posted via CB10

[q649]

Overall it was a great interview but "pretty good cash"...doesn't come across as terribly confident...this is the kind of foot in your mouth stuff that he has a habit of doing.

Funny, I took his statement as very confident. This is what happens with the written word without verbal or physical cues, it's very much open to interpretation.