[Charles Martin1]

Glad to see input from both sides here. It`s a tough call with the ER coming up as we have no indication of the number of sales BB has generated this ER. As for Netflix, that is def wishful thinking for BB to pull off what they did, but remember these are two entirely different markets. Correct me if I am wrong, but Netflix completely dominates the one their in whilst BB is in an ultra competitive market with low market share. However, the good thing is, they have more room to grow IMO than their competition.

Since ER is reported on Friday (holiday), we won`t see action until Monday. That may give us some breathing room if ER is lackluster, but pre-market may work against us (not sure how big)... Then again, I`m with the TSX so not sure how pre-market works there.

If sales are better than expected, I predict a possible 8-12% boost in share price.



Damn, that`s a lot of shares!

Yip. I had upwards of 15,000 shares and thought that was a lot. Now I feel like a neutered miniature Dachshund. Lol

[cjcampbell]

Launch event. In the days leading up to it, management had been saying that they still had some surprises up their sleeves for the launch itself. The only actual surprise was Alicia Keys...


It's reported on the morning of the 28th, which is Thursday.

Launch event was a "What do we think " moment. The ER is factual and final. It either does or it doesn't. All signs point to it doing it and not from BlackBerry but from many others. They aren't giving any idea of what to expect either way so I don't think that your comparison is a good one

Posted via CB10

[DragonFlyer]

Don't forget about Kevin's haircut

Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Tapatalk

[Charles Martin1]

Launch event was a "What do we think " moment. The ER is factual and final. It either does or it doesn't. All signs point to it doing it and not from BlackBerry but from many others. They aren't giving any idea of what to expect either way so I don't think that your comparison is a good one

Posted via CB10

People may not see it as a convincing turnaround then though...I'm thinking that it will be another 6 months. the US thing really focked things up. Those MF Apple addicted and whipped carriers...lol

[MoolahMitch]

I have never bought options before. Say you have 2000 bbry shares and you want to hedge for the er, how many options would you purchase and at what price? Note that i am not going to go out and do anything people post, just interested in seeing what others would do. Thanks

I didnt seen any response to your inquiry but you would buy 20 put(option to sell at a strike price) contracts (each contract is 100 shares) and the strike price would be the price you wish to pay, either to protect your profit or your original investment.

i.e. if you have an avg cost of $10 you buy 20 put contracts with a strike price of $10 so you dont lose your money or at $14 to lock in profit up to that price.

[Markymark 23]

Yip. I had upwards of 15,000 shares and thought that was a lot. Now I feel like a neutered miniature Dachshund. Lol

Which puts me at about mouse status I guess

[JLagoon]

Hi Morgan; I thank you for continuing to share your analysis in this forum. It is very helpful, and somewhat comforting, at least to me. Do you have any thought for Monday?

My attempt on the chart analysis based on the 30 minute chart, and considering the daily chart, it seems that there is another chance for one more push to reach $15.40 - $15.45 range, and it would consolidate and drop to $14.30, before going either further down or up depending ER. The main reasoning on this is that the RSI on the daily chart is already at the overbought level, and the MACD looks like halfway to cross down the signal line.

[cjcampbell]

Which puts me at about mouse status I guess

Castrated mouse... lol

[bungaboy]

Castrated mouse... lol

. . . . . . Minnie Mouse?

[cjcampbell]

So thoughts for tomorrow..... What do you think will happen? We may hear about strong demand from pre sales in the US but I wonder how the media is going to play the drop in price over the Canadian carriers. When it was on "special" in a few places in the UK, they pounced. The last few days have been battles and I'm curious as to other's views as to what they expect.

[plasmid_boy]

. . . . . . Minnie Mouse?

Are we still talking about stocks?
If not, that's too much information...

[AlexejKir]

Only 11 days to the ER.

Last week we saw jump from 13$ to 15$ (successful) what is in my opinion even better, that we did not face any major selloff after the price jumped. On Friday there were 3 or 4 attempts to break 14,83 (new support) and we managed stay above that support.

Looking at the chart, we might have successfully created a double bottom @12.46ish and now we are in place for another up move.. and on a daily chart there is a nice cup and handle pattern that can come in play. My 2cents, we should see 16$ again this week and if we manage to stay above next Friday, we should see a nice run up the ER week.

[Superfly_FR]

Only 11 days to the ER.

Last week we saw jump from 13$ to 15$ (successful) what is in my opinion even better, that we did not face any major selloff after the price jumped. On Friday there were 3 or 4 attempts to break 14,83 (new support) and we managed stay above that support.

Looking at the chart, we might have successfully created a double bottom @12.46ish and now we are in place for another up move.. and on a daily chart there is a nice cup and handle pattern that can come in play. My 2cents, we should see 16$ again this week and if we manage to stay above next Friday, we should see a nice run up the ER week.

Sounds reasonable to me.

[john1110]

What I observed BBRY these days, share price is dipping gradually if there is no good news.
I don't have much trading experience, I wonder whether this pattern is normal though.

[Markymark 23]

So can there be some kind of consensus, based on the TA, that'll somewhat define our playground this coming week? Do you think we'll see activity between 15 and 16 generally speaking or will the field be broader between 13/14 and 16? I've gotten a little confused since Friday close with talk of large buy-ins (Morgan mentioned that) and options expiries (again Morgan + others). I understand the buy-in impact but not the options thing. Bottom line for the short term, ie this week: where we goin?

[Charles Martin1]

So can there be some kind of consensus, based on the TA, that'll somewhat define our playground this coming week? Do you think we'll see activity between 15 and 16 generally speaking or will the field be broader between 13/14 and 16? I've gotten a little confused since Friday close with talk of large buy-ins (Morgan mentioned that) and options expiries (again Morgan + others). I understand the buy-in impact but not the options thing. Bottom line for the short term, ie this week: where we goin?

Nobody knows...my bet is nowhere too far, up or down.

[Charles Martin1]

What I observed BBRY these days, share price is dipping gradually if there is no good news.
I don't have much trading experience, I wonder whether this pattern is normal though.

It is for a stock driven largely by hype.

[Markymark 23]

Nobody knows...my bet is nowhere too far, up or down.

And I guess that wouldn't be such a bad thing in the absence of good news or nasty rumour. The week after next though will no doubt be quite different!!

[Charles Martin1]

So thoughts for tomorrow..... What do you think will happen? We may hear about strong demand from pre sales in the US but I wonder how the media is going to play the drop in price over the Canadian carriers. When it was on "special" in a few places in the UK, they pounced. The last few days have been battles and I'm curious as to other's views as to what they expect.

The short-dogs (media hacks) will start the week by saying that US demand falls well short of Canada and UK demand and whatever other shat they get paid to spew. However, I'm not sure how much damage that will do this close to the ER.

[Charles Martin1]

And I guess that wouldn't be such a bad thing in the absence of good news or nasty rumour. The week after next though will no doubt be quite different!!

I'm hoping

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan; I thank you for continuing to share your analysis in this forum. It is very helpful, and somewhat comforting, at least to me. Do you have any thought for Monday?

My attempt on the chart analysis based on the 30 minute chart, and considering the daily chart, it seems that there is another chance for one more push to reach $15.40 - $15.45 range, and it would consolidate and drop to $14.30, before going either further down or up depending ER. The main reasoning on this is that the RSI on the daily chart is already at the overbought level, and the MACD looks like halfway to cross down the signal line.

Hi JLagoon!

Thanks for posting a chart! I was hoping more investors would do just that. We have the same trends here which is always good, the area under your channel projects to much higher highs too. I would think that if we could confirm a breakout over $ 15.00/shr this week, the rally that comes from that will take us to 52 week highs. The reason is that the sym-triangle ressolves to much higher levels here. Of course you have to believe in my sym-triangle don't you!?!

Chart:


I believe we closed down on Friday to mess with options expiry, and towards the close, someone took advantage of that strike price to buy a large block of the stock. My uptrend line from last week, the one that is RSI overbought on a 2 -3 minute chart can stay that way up to new highs. It is a weak resistance point for me, I see us possibly opening above $ 15.00/shr, breaking out of the sym-triangle, moving above the 5-dma which will be around $ 15.03/shr at the opening, and rallying from here. Odds favour some news of sales over the weekend too.

I bought 5,000 more shares on Friday and the reason is that we got a new Android based Samsung Galaxy 2 Tablet running 4.0. For $ 250.00 plus tax for the unit and a leather case, I was able to spend plenty of time on the OS and I have to tell you, this thing is a piece of junk. Aside from the apps, it is sub-standard in every way. We have plenty of tablets here and my Playbooks are light years ahead of this device. The screen quality sucks, the OS is just terrible compared to BB 2.0/BB 10 for that matter. There is little reason to buy a Samsung product based upon this OS. And so I bought more shares. Up until now I have owned them all but I haven't had a true Android experience prior to this week. The plan here was to own something to gives us all of the apps available out there. Thus, we use the BlackBerry products 95% of the time and switch to Android for that missing app. You can tell I'm bored.

To conclude, I do hope that you are off on the low end target, that would mean that we would fall back into the sym-tri and that's not bullish. We would also be declaring that the 1,000,000 phone order was worthless to the bottom line as all of the gains would be lost there. Monday is going to be a big day for BBRY, good luck!

[Marc_Paradise]

So can there be some kind of consensus, based on the TA, that'll somewhat define our playground this coming week? Do you think we'll see activity between 15 and 16 generally speaking or will the field be broader between 13/14 and 16? I've gotten a little confused since Friday close with talk of large buy-ins (Morgan mentioned that) and options expiries (again Morgan + others). I understand the buy-in impact but not the options thing. Bottom line for the short term, ie this week: where we goin?

This week will be news-driven, (and will drift down in absence of news) and next week will go up in anticipation of selling the news of the ER.

Keep in mind my last prediction turned out to completely miss the mark

[Charles Martin1]

BlackBerry Maker discloses losses smaller than expected

...and the shares start the week in the green

Honestly though, these earnings may sound very much like December's ER but with greater losses of BIS, fewer subscribers, and significantly lower BB 7 sales. Despite some positive news on the BB10 sales it is quite likely there will be concerns raised about the rate of loss during this transition period.

[Superfly_FR]

BlackBerry Maker discloses losses smaller than expected

...and the shares start the week in the green

I hate these news with no stamp date on it

[Charles Martin1]

I hate these news with no stamp date on it

Lol...it's the green beer.