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BlackBerry Bounces 15%: Why?
Mar 12 2013, 13:49 by: Vlad Deshkovich | about: BBRY
BlackBerry's (BBRY) stock jumped 14% during market hours and an additional 1% in after hours trading yesterday, March 11 2013. Massive trading volumes have been surrounding the stock since the year began, as investors speculate on whether the latest BB10 line of phones will bring back the troubled phone maker. Days like yesterday have come around a multitude of times, with the stock posting a huge gain or loss in a very short time span. We must investigate the news that could have pushed the surge to see whether the stock will retain its value.
US Release
The flagship phone of the new BB10 line will finally arrive at stores in the United States next week. Although BlackBerry 10 has debuted internationally, the US has stricter phone tests than many other parts of the world. Since BlackBerry gave US carriers the Z10 around the same time as they gave it to their international customers, we will only be seeing the phones in major stores starting next week.
BlackBerry selected $200 as the price point for its phone in the US. This price will only be given with a 2-year contract, of course. This puts the Z10 at exactly the same contract price as its two biggest competitors: the iPhone 5 and the Galaxy S3. The Z10 has hardware of a similar caliber to the two other phones, but what it lacks is market share. The Z10 is a high-end product, however, and is being priced accordingly.
BlackBerry's entrance into one of the largest telecom markets in the world is a good reason for the stock to go up. BlackBerry will be competing in the luxury smartphone space with several other big names, but has created a competitive product and should be able to generate sales. Recent data from BlackBerry has shown that 1/3 of their sales in Canada have been from people formerly using iOS or Android. If BlackBerry can generate that kind of consumer interest in the US, it will be profitable.
Takeover Rumors
Lenovo Group's (LNVGY.PK) CEO Yang Yuanqing has informed a French newspaper that he may potentially buy BlackBerry for his firm. Although there have been no formal declarations, Yuanqing has mentioned purchasing the embattled phone maker before. Investors may think that there is substance to these announcements, which there may just be, and have bought the stock in anticipation.
Upcoming Short Squeeze
There is no denying it: many investors have shorted BlackBerry. The stock is highly polarizing, and for every investor that thinks BB10 will succeed there is another who thinks it will fail. Looking at the short interest data, you can see that a lot of people have to cover their shorts within the next week. This will drive the stock price up as demand skyrockets. Investors anticipating the squeeze could have purchased the stock to profit off of it.
Conclusions
BlackBerry's stock had a lot of good reasons to jump 15%. Evidently people are optimistic about the US release of BB10. The optimistic investor sentiment may be indicative of good consumer sentiment, and the competitively priced Z10 should start grabbing market share as soon as it hits AT&T stores in 10 days. The stock should experience some more drastic swings in value, but current sentiment seems to be pushing it upwards. BlackBerry is a good short-term buy.
Shanerredflag and StormieTwo like this.03-12-13 06:12 PMLike 2 - LOL...I did as well...seems it's all about the clicks and what they want to hear. Or, might have something to do with the flame job he got the last couple negative pieces he wrote03-12-13 06:28 PMLike 3
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Thanks for those kind words!
There isn't much to look for here, we had a great day, didn't breakout of the final resistance at $ 15.30/shr but we closed well above the 50-dma which is support. I have a chart here that shows the five legs we are completing:
This was a rough ride for a few weeks but now, there is a 75% chance that we will follow this exact pattern over the next 3 weeks. There are some nice gains to be had here as it projects new 52 week highs. I mentioned earlier that we could take 3 - 4 days to blast through it but is going to happen. The trendline is falling and the 50-dma is going up, so we don't have much time to waste here before the trend takes hold. The plan is to buy at the 50-dma and wait for it to break out of that holding pattern. The rally will be huge, this formation takes time to ressolve but it is worth waiting for! GL03-12-13 06:57 PMLike 16 -
- 03-12-13 07:16 PMLike 2
- Hi ipaqman!
Thanks for those kind words!
There isn't much to look for here, we had a great day, didn't breakout of the final resistance at $ 15.30/shr but we closed well above the 50-dma which is support. I have a chart here that shows the five legs...
This was a rough ride for a few weeks but now, there is a 75% chance that we will follow this exact pattern over the next 3 weeks. There are some nice gains to be had here as it projects new 52 week highs. I mentioned earlier that we could take 3 - 4 days to blast through it but is going to happen. The trendline is falling and the 50-dma is going up, so we don't have much time to waste here before the trend takes hold. The plan is to buy at the 50-dma and wait for it to break out of that holding pattern. The rally will be huge, this formation takes time to ressolve but it is worth waiting for! GL03-12-13 07:25 PMLike 0 -
Edit...might have 4.2.2...it's still just jellybean and it still has the back button.Last edited by Shanerredflag; 03-12-13 at 08:02 PM.
03-12-13 07:33 PMLike 3 - thanks morgan!
keep us posted with your insight!
always much appreciated.
i am long and holding 21,000 shares right now and thinking about selling half but don't want to miss the run.03-12-13 07:38 PMLike 3 - I don't believe that Sammy will do much to BB price...the truth is the S4 has issues. The processor they are stuffing in it is having serious problems, it's not available in NA until at least May and it's still the exact same OS as the S3. I am thinking it might actually help us here a bit once the press catches on to those little facts...fingers crossed..Shanerredflag likes this.03-12-13 07:48 PMLike 1
- I just came back from the local AT&T store to order my Z10.
They got tones of interests according to the manager.
Here is how I ordered one with my premiere account.
Tried everything, nothing worked but this:
1. Went into local store and asked for upgrade.
2. Ask agent to take the premiere discount off.
3. Login and place order, choose a plan. It won't have unlimited as an option, just pick any plan.
4. Ask the agent to put back the premiere discount.
5. Ask the agent to put a note into the system that you should get unlimited data, but chose a different plan temporary in order to order the phone.
6. Ask for a business card so that if problems occur later on, you would have a real person to help.
7. Call in as soon as you get the phone and ask to correct the unlimited plan.
Hope this helps. I can't wait...03-12-13 07:48 PMLike 6 - Hi M8
I was wondering if your TA has baked in the upcoming release of good news such as the Whatsapp release plus the negative news of the S4 launch? Or is it a purely based on historical trends.
Posted via CB1003-12-13 07:53 PMLike 0 - LOL...I'm perusing the rest of the CB website and just had to share this little nugget. I laughed for a good 5 minutes...ohhh what a great laugh.
"Jokes on them....idiots....Apple used one day of interest off it's bank account to buy RIM outright 26 months ago.....BB IS Apple.
Heins didn't even WEAR glasses until 12 months ago....Jobs MAKES Heins wear a pair of his old glasses as a sign of submission and for his own entertainment. That's why Heins seems a bit awkward at times.....he can't see properly!"
Sorry for being off topic but it was just too crazy not to share.Last edited by Charles Martin1; 03-12-13 at 08:27 PM.
03-12-13 08:08 PMLike 5 - I just came back from the local AT&T store to order my Z10.
They got tones of interests according to the manager.
Here is how I ordered one with my premiere account.
Tried everything, nothing worked but this:
1. Went into local store and asked for upgrade.
2. Ask agent to take the premiere discount off.
3. Login and place order, choose a plan. It won't have unlimited as an option, just pick any plan.
4. Ask the agent to put back the premiere discount.
5. Ask the agent to put a note into the system that you should get unlimited data, but chose a different plan temporary in order to order the phone.
6. Ask for a business card so that if problems occur later on, you would have a real person to help.
7. Call in as soon as you get the phone and ask to correct the unlimited plan.
Hope this helps. I can't wait...
That sounds great! Thanks for sharing.03-12-13 08:13 PMLike 0 -
I haven't done any research on the S4 but I'm hoping people come away from this thinking that sammy is turning into the new iphone by launching a new phone with no great improvements. I hope they prove me right.
Now for something I do know, A colleague of mine has the Z10, his son has the S3. After the son played with the dads Z10 he wished he had the Z10 as his own. In my part of the world BB is uncool among the youngsters. The fact that they turned this 16 year old is more than proof enough for me BB10 is a huge success. Welcome a new generation of CrackBerry addicts. Kevin I hope you are ready for this next generation.
I forgot to mention the son is 16 years old.03-12-13 08:20 PMLike 5 - I haven't done any research on the S4 but I'm hoping people come away from this thinking that sammy is turning into the new iphone by launching a new phone with no great improvements. I hope they prove me right.
Now for something I do know, A colleague of mine has the Z10, his son has the S3. After the son played with the dads Z10 he wished he had the Z10 as his own. In my part of the world BB is uncool among the youngsters. The fact that they turned this 16 year old is more than proof enough for me BB10 is a huge success. Welcome a new generation of CrackBerry addicts. Kevin I hope you are ready for this next generation.
I forgot to mention the son is 16 years old.03-12-13 08:26 PMLike 0 - LOL...I'm perusing the rest of the CB website and just had to share this little nugget. I laughed for a good 5 minutes...ohhh what a great laugh.
"Jokes on them....idiots....Apple used one day of interest off it's bank account to buy RIM outright 26 months ago.....BB IS Apple.
Heins didn't even WEAR glasses until 12 months ago....Jobs MAKES Heins wear a pair of his old glasses as a sign of submission and for his own entertainment. That's why Heins seems a bit awkward at times.....he can't see properly!"
Sorry for being off topic but it was just too crazy not to share.03-12-13 08:35 PMLike 0 - I just came back from the local AT&T store to order my Z10.
They got tones of interests according to the manager.
Here is how I ordered one with my premiere account.
Tried everything, nothing worked but this:
1. Went into local store and asked for upgrade.
2. Ask agent to take the premiere discount off.
3. Login and place order, choose a plan. It won't have unlimited as an option, just pick any plan.
4. Ask the agent to put back the premiere discount.
5. Ask the agent to put a note into the system that you should get unlimited data, but chose a different plan temporary in order to order the phone.
6. Ask for a business card so that if problems occur later on, you would have a real person to help.
7. Call in as soon as you get the phone and ask to correct the unlimited plan.
Hope this helps. I can't wait...03-12-13 08:40 PMLike 0 -
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With this stock being so volatile, its hard to say when and how far things will go up or down. All I know is if you don't have a plan and act on that plan, you will never execute (win or lose). You have to make a decision and stick to it unless relevant news comes out which causes you to adjust. Meaning, the most opportune time may never come, but there's always close enough.erodenero likes this.03-12-13 08:51 PMLike 1
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