[chrysaurora]

Not quite right, you see some markets 'over index' in terms of BlackBerry popularity...no if India is 3x USA. it really becomes important etc.

Thu UK and France, both are like 3x the USA per smart phone user etc.

Guessing here but you get where this is going?

Posted via CB10

While overall smartphone market in India is huge, the $400+ Smartphone market is NOT 3x the USA market.

[Andrew4life]

The average US consumer doesn't believe that BlackBerry is going out of business because of the stock price--they believe that because they haven't seen a new product in 18 months, during that same time period there's been virtually no marketing presence, and because when they go into their Verizon store to buy a new handset the 23-year old behind the counter tells them BlackBerry is going out of business (and he couldn't tell you what the stock price is either).

I agree that the average customer does not care about the stock price of a company. But they do care about the sentiment of the company. And given that the company has had bad sentiment in the past 2 years up until now, that would be the linking factor of the stock price to the customers.

Customer <------>Sentiment<----->Stock Price

Note that the Stock price does not directly affect the customers, but rather indirectly. In short, they are a somewhat indication of what customers might feel towards BlackBerry.

Think of it this way, financial papers cover large company stocks, e.g. BlackBerry. If the stock plunges, the papers are going to say "BlackBerry Dying" or something like that. Many people might not care and will get the phone anyways, but other will not want to buy a phone from a "dying" company. It is not a direct effect, nor is it a completely correlated effect, but to say the stock price does not affect customer purchase choices, would be ignorant. But hey, ignorance is bliss right?

[joe.miller]

I agree that the average customer does not care about the stock price of a company. But they do care about the sentiment of the company. And given that the company has had bad sentiment in the past 2 years up until now, that would be the linking factor of the stock price to the customers.

Customer <------>Sentiment<----->Stock Price

Note that the Stock price does not directly affect the customers, but rather indirectly. In short, they are a somewhat indication of what customers might feel towards BlackBerry.

Think of it this way, financial papers cover large company stocks, e.g. BlackBerry. If the stock plunges, the papers are going to say "BlackBerry Dying" or something like that. Many people might not care and will get the phone anyways, but other will not want to buy a phone from a "dying" company. It is not a direct effect, nor is it a completely correlated effect, but to say the stock price does not affect customer purchase choices, would be ignorant. But hey, ignorance is bliss right?

In general, and over the long term? Absolutely.

Between now and when earnings are released, which was the original argument (i.e. Heins needs to prop up the stock before earnings or it will affect sales)? No significant difference.

[DudeBB]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut. BB devices shipped to India are redirected to US hopping sales in US will be better than in India.

BTW: I told two days ago to sell and not to buy again.

[tjseaman]

I support BBRY and I don't buy share's.

Posted via CB10

[Tinomane]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut.

BTW: I told two days to sell and not to buy again.

oh really? So that means you're unbanned. Post a screenshot of your findings.

[Kid Vibe]

Although it's tough to take the current stock at it's price... In the end if you are an investor, you shouldn't be eying it heavily until earnings... Blackberry is doing an OK job in terms of marketing. I think that their Alicia Keys sponsorship is their biggest move in terms of US marketing thus far. Remember, most consumers see Blackberry as a corporate phone. Blackberry's biggest challenge is re-branding itself into a consumer, everyday peoples phone. If they aren't able to successfully do this in the eyes of millions of consumers (especially in the US), I don't see them growing much more.

Here is a good article: What Barnes &amp; Noble and Blackberry Can Learn From Steven Spielberg and Daniel Day-Lewis - Forbes

Luckily for BB, they have been able to revamp themselves (sales wise) in other markets across the globe, thus far (well, according to reports). The main focus the media has right now is the US whilst disregarding other countries. This, to me, has had a definite impact on the price of the stock. Thankfully, the positive articles I have come across have kept me believing in the company for the next few months. Will they become number one, probably not. Will their stock go over $20, hopefully. I don't have high expectations because IMO, they haven't created anything revolutionary (yet). But right now, as I mentioned, marketing is a key factor... It will take a lot of work, a lot of cash, and a lot of persuading... Especially in the US market.

[Shanerredflag]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut. BB devices shipped to India are redirected to US hopping sales in US will be better than in India.

BTW: I told two days ago to sell and not to buy again.

By the way...still waiting for screen shots of the Russian site.

Posted via CB10

[DragonFlyer]

"Oh no I'm screwed. I really thought I knew what I was doing. I thought I knew everything about this company. I thought I knew what was happening with the share price. I'm in way over my head and I'm going to loose everything. I have to go home and tell my wife we have to sell our house and everything we have worked for is gone. I'm trying to figure out what I can do but I can't find an app for that. Please help me" Shortie said to Siri on the day that BBRY closed up 60% after the company released its numbers.
Siri replied.....

[bigbbrybeliever]

Following is the quote from today's note by James Faucette with Pacific Crest:
"Since launch, we estimate that the Z10 has grabbed about 10% to 15% of the high-end smart- phone market and around 5% to 8% of the total smartphone market in the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, in Canada, we estimated that the Z10 has gained an applause-worthy 15% to 20% of the high-end smartphone market, while garnering roughly high single-digits to low double- digits in terms of total smartphone share."
What he told us are:
In just four weeks, Blackberry Z10 already consists of 5% to 8% and 9% to 13% of the total smartphone market in the United Kingdom and Canada, respectively.
Since he is very bearish, I would think the truth is on the high end of his projection, so here we use the 8% and 13% of the total smartphone market in the United Kingdom and Canada.
In UK and Canada, most of the smartphones have three year contract. So let us use 3 years as the Z10 life cycle.
If the Z10 sell does not slow down and keep the same as the month of Feb, then in less than one year, the Z10 market share in UK and Canada would be 12 X 8% = 96% and 12 X 13% = 156%.
Obvisouly, this cannot be. Therefore, the sell slow down is very natural. Let us assume that the average monthly sell of Z10 in next 12 months is only 25% of the sell number in Feb (which seems very reasonable based on his last bar in the chart), then at the end of the 12 months, the total market shares in UK and Canada will be 12 X 25% X 8% = 24% and 12 X 25% X 13% = 34%, which will be equal to the shares of current iPhone in UK and Canada.
With such higher market shares, you now may guess what the stock price will be.

[DarrenHD]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut. BB devices shipped to India are redirected to US hopping sales in US will be better than in India.

BTW: I told two days ago to sell and not to buy again.

In my visits to Malls (multiple times) over the past few weeks, no one was buying much of anything. I did talk with some store employees who work at some of the Carrier or independent sellers - Blackberry Z10's were selling very well just after launch, and now a month after lunch about just as good as other phones. But the majority of the time the stores that I saw (Virgin Mobile kiosk, Bell, Rogers, Wireless Wave, Fido, Rogers, Telephone Booth) were largely devoid of customers. Some spurts of activity but in my observations the Z10 was selling just as good (or bad) as any other smartphone at the moment, which is far better than before the Z10 launched where the Blackberry was hardly selling *any* devices. I have also seen at least two out in the wild - and my friends and co-workers generally have an open (if passive) opinion about Blackberry. The upgrade cycles in Canada are long - typically 3 years, so you will see, month by month, gradual sales.

At least Blackberry is back in the game and they have a fair chance. Now it's time to execute which means: frequent software updates (They have already delivered a big one that drastically improves battery life, bug fixes, and some other improvements), solid USA Z10 launch, Q10 launch shortly after - no delays - and last but not least marketing and Apps. Not easy but if Blackberry can continue to keep people excited, keep updating, and deliver the goods they should grab a fairly good chunk of the current smartphone business - I would say up to 10% and 15% in some markets. Personally I'd like to see an even more agressive marketing approach (and continued marketing) and the release of the Q10 in April, followed by the "Aristo" by October/November and/or a lower end "Curve" replacement. They have to keep their foot on the gas.

[DudeBB]

Following is the quote from today's note by James Faucette with Pacific Crest:
15% to 20% of the high-end smartphone market, while garnering roughly high single-digits to low double- digits in terms of total smartphone share."
What he told us are:
In just four weeks, Blackberry Z10 already consists of 5% to 8% and 9% to 13% of the total smartphone market in the United Kingdom and Canada, respectively.
Since he is very bearish, I would think the truth is on the high end of his projection, so here we use the 8% and 13% of the total smartphone market in the United Kingdom and Canada.
In UK and Canada, most of the smartphones have three year contract. So let us use 3 years as the Z10 life cycle.
If the Z10 sell does not slow down and keep the same as the month of Feb, then in less than one year, the Z10 market share in UK and Canada would be 12 X 8% = 96% and 12 X 13% = 156%.
Canada will be 12 X 25% X 8% = 24% and 12 X 25% X 13% = 34%, which will be equal to the shares of current iPhone in UK and Canada.
With such higher market shares, you now may guess what the stock price will be.

There is not enough population in Canada to cover your numbers. )

It looks like only brokers are left on this forum. Good job!

[Shanerredflag]

Screen shots

Posted via CB10

[DudeBB]

Screen shots

Posted via CB10

Why should I jeopardize those folks who provides me with good (true) information?

[Shanerredflag]

This is just a small false bottom...the advancing stage will begin shortly ( no pun intended).

Hope the Russians can keep it together at BlackBerry ;/

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

Why should I jeopardize those folks who provides me with good (true) information?

Why...are they following you here too.
Do they monitor your posts?
Do you need some help.
.

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

"Oh no I'm screwed. I really thought I knew what I was doing. I thought I knew everything about this company. I thought I knew what was happening with the share price. I'm in way over my head and I'm going to loose everything. I have to go home and tell my wife we have to sell our house and everything we have worked for is gone. I'm trying to figure out what I can do but I can't find an app for that. Please help me" Shortie said to Siri on the day that BBRY closed up 60% after the company released its numbers.
Siri replied.....

[gilmanhlee]

I wish only the supporters of BBRY are here.

I understand that we need to be objective when it comes to stern reality - that is we take both positive and negative news rationally.
But even negative news may still be carried with supporting spirit.

I don't find that at all with some recent posters here.
Sometimes, even positive news are carried with pessimistic spirit.

[Bbnivende]

I see the problem differently. 65% of LY revenue is coming third world countries who liked BBM on the BB. This group is rapidly leaving BB for lower end Android devices and BBM replacement services. BB has no replacement or solution at the lower end of the smartphone market in these countries . Compounding this problem is that the Z10 is regarded to be over priced relative to the top tiered Apple and Android phones. I see a base of maybe 75 mill after Q4 and dropping including BB7 and BB10. They need a whole world solution that involves licensing BB10 ASAP.

[Tinomane]

I frequent a Ukranian RIM employee forum. Yesterday I saw a thread where the employees were debating whether they should buy the new LaFerrari or the Lambo that have recently been released. They said they can't wait until after earnings bc their stock options will make them all multi millionaires. They said the z10 has sold more than any iphone ever has in a quarter. They also said that RIM had to hire all the recently laid off Foxconn workers to build extra z10s.

Oh and netflix and instagram will be out next week which is also when the z10 and q10 will be released in the US. Sorry, I can't provide a screenshot bc my print screen button is broken.

[DragonFlyer]

Icjr you are looking a little more professional these days.

[pooger]

I'll take a laferrari for $5 please.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9930

[bungaboy]

There is not enough population in Canada to cover your numbers. )

It looks like only brokers are left on this forum. Good job!

And JOKERS! ;-)

[take99]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut. BB devices shipped to India are redirected to US hopping sales in US will be better than in India.

BTW: I told two days ago to sell and not to buy again.

Love reading these posts using my best Russian accent in my head.
The dude has spoken.

[plane6065]

I was shopping on weekend and had a chance to see four stores around in the same time during pick hours and nobody was buying or even being interested in BB. I've seen two Nokia's sold, and one Galaxy. Nobody pays attention to new BB.
Other news from russians: RIM loosing key developers; no salary increase this year for the rest of developers , many internal projects put on hold, budget on others was cut. BB devices shipped to India are redirected to US hopping sales in US will be better than in India.


BTW: I told two days ago to sell and not to buy again.