[Charles Martin1]

BBRY: Z10 Grabs Share, Inventories Rise, Says Pac Crest (Update)

BBRY: Z10 Grabs Share, Inventories Rise, Says Pac Crest (Update) - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

Here's the comments I left:

You have no statistics in this report whatsoever!!! There's not even any values on your so called charts!!! This is by far, the worst display of "analysis" I've ever read. How is this not criminal???

[pooger]

I agree that conservative bulls are not putting any money into it because they know it will just keep going down slowly until news is released because that seems to be what the media wishes to portray.

If you are bullish and correct, then the stock will jump once facts are released and you'll be regretting for not buying more earlier as the stock was falling down for no reason other than analysts rehashing the same news over and over again. Hindsight is and will be 20/20.

If you are bullish but feel worried about the stock slipping slowly these days, it might mean that you have too much invested and probably should think about reducing your position.

[OMGitworks]

It is not their job to defend the stock. They win if the company does well in the long run.

Their job is to maximize shareholder value. At some point that means that you have stand up and call people on their BS and defend that stock. Not seeing that you may not get to the "long run" can be a fatal flaw. I hope they haven't done that. They don't need to be short-sighted or foolish, but fiddling and saying nothing while the stock drops ahead of a crucial launch date is tough to watch. Do people want to jump on a ship or buy a new phone from a company they perceive to be sinking. It may well be that it is not actually doing so, but they are allowing the negative perception to go unanswered. That's my issue. The more I see how BBRY deals with Wall St., the more it reminds me of RIMM.

[Bbnivende]

This board is fixated on the BB10 launch in the USA . They can still do well at the high end ( or at least Lumia type well) but lose out at the bottom end.

They need a cheap Android fighter to stay in the game . I don't think they can survive just at the top end.

For example :

Why Blackberry Remains Powerful In Indonesia

[Sith_Apprentice]

This board is fixated on the BB10 launch in the USA . They can still do well at the high end ( or at least Lumia type well) but lose out at the bottom end.

They need a cheap Android fighter to stay in the game . I don't think they can survive just at the top end.

For example :

Why Blackberry Remains Powerful In Indonesia

They have a prototype device already made or mass units being made for this.

[silversun10]

BBRY: Z10 Grabs Share, Inventories Rise, Says Pac Crest (Update)

BBRY: Z10 Grabs Share, Inventories Rise, Says Pac Crest (Update) - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

if there is enough inventory, then the US launch must be close according to the logic that the US launch was delayed because of low production,
so is this good news in disguise then? since the bears can't have it both ways..........also inventory means sales are not unduly restricted by no inventory,
again a positive, wow the bears coming up with positives, what is happening?

[joe.miller]

Do people want to jump on a ship or buy a new phone from a company they perceive to be sinking. .

Joe Schmoe that walks into BestBuy couldn't care less about the price of BBRY. They don't read financial papers. They don't read The Verge. They don't read BGR. They buy what the retailer tells them to buy.

This is a red herring. It's as significant as a fart in a hurricane.

[Zarpan]

Here's the comments I left:

You have no statistics in this report whatsoever!!! There's not even any values on your so called charts!!! This is by far, the worst display of "analysis" I've ever read. How is this not criminal???

Yeah, I'd have to disagree with his conclusions too. Even without any numbers attached to the chart, you can tell the supposed spike in UK inventory levels would have to do with a major shipment coming in. I posted some comments to the article as well:

The higher inventory build seems to be due to a major shipment coming into stores more than anything.

Assuming that the charts are to scale, I'm going to plug in some hypothetical numbers to explain.

The week of Feb 18, UK sales were 100,000 per week, and inventory was at 180,000 units (1.8 weeks of inventory).

The week of Feb 25, UK sales were 70,000 per week, and inventory was at 5.1 weeks (so 5.1 * 70,000 = 357,000 units).

That means inventory increased by 177,000 units while 70,000 units were sold, so the total shipment in during that week was 247,000 units. Even if sales didn't decrease from Feb 18 to Feb 25, that would still be 2.5 weeks worth of inventory arriving in one week, so it would have increased inventory levels significantly no matter what the sellthrough.

That leads me to believe that the inventory build was planned (due to the huge size of the shipment) rather than as a result of slow sellthrough.

Without any numbers on the chart, we can't tell whether his targeted inventory levels make sense at all either. It could be that he's off with that target as well, and the large shipment was designed to get the Z10 to the typical inventory level. That would seemingly be the most reasonable explanation for ordering a huge shipment.

[bungaboy]

Joe Schmoe that walks into BestBuy couldn't care less about the price of BBRY. They don't read financial papers. They don't read The Verge. They don't read BGR. They buy what the retailer tells them to buy.

This is a red herring. It's as significant as a fart in a hurricane.

Well maybe not a Chris Christie one though. LoL

[Bbnivende]

They have a prototype device already made or mass units being made for this.

Or perhaps they are going to risk it...

No Budget BlackBerry 10 Smartphones Planned for 2013 - Mobile Magazine

[bigbbrybeliever]

Yeah, I'd have to disagree with his conclusions too. Even without any numbers attached to the chart, you can tell the supposed spike in UK inventory levels would have to do with a major shipment coming in. I posted some comments to the article as well:

The higher inventory build seems to be due to a major shipment coming into stores more than anything.

Assuming that the charts are to scale, I'm going to plug in some hypothetical numbers to explain.

The week of Feb 18, UK sales were 100,000 per week, and inventory was at 180,000 units (1.8 weeks of inventory).

The week of Feb 25, UK sales were 70,000 per week, and inventory was at 5.1 weeks (so 5.1 * 70,000 = 357,000 units).

That means inventory increased by 177,000 units while 70,000 units were sold, so the total shipment in during that week was 247,000 units. Even if sales didn't decrease from Feb 18 to Feb 25, that would still be 2.5 weeks worth of inventory arriving in one week, so it would have increased inventory levels significantly no matter what the sellthrough.

That leads me to believe that the inventory build was planned (due to the huge size of the shipment) rather than as a result of slow sellthrough.

Without any numbers on the chart, we can't tell whether his targeted inventory levels make sense at all either. It could be that he's off with that target as well, and the large shipment was designed to get the Z10 to the typical inventory level. That would seemingly be the most reasonable explanation for ordering a huge shipment.

My take is more simple and direct. Based on what formally reported, at the moment, the last lauched country, India has almost zero inventory (sold out, today's news). In the coming weeks, USA and other major countries, such as indonisia will be launched. Blackberry has to prepare huge inventory to meet the coming launch in those country while Z10 production is still limited. Therefore, unless it was requested by the carriers and retail vendors in UK and Canada, Blackberry will not allocate any excess inventory to these two countries. In other words, when the carriers and retail venfors in UK and Canada asks for such huge shipment, it could only mean that the Z10 was and will be selling very well. Remember, Blackberry can not force sell (ship) the Z10 to the carriers unless the carries willing to accept and pay. Unless all the carriers in UK and Canada were stupid, then the carriers must project that they can sell the phones because the market is still very strong.

[Charles Martin1]

The Market Cannot Remain Irrational Forever - Seeking Alpha

[Bbnivende]

Their job is to maximize shareholder value. At some point that means that you have stand up and call people on their BS and defend that stock. Not seeing that you may not get to the "long run" can be a fatal flaw. I hope they haven't done that. They don't need to be short-sighted or foolish, but fiddling and saying nothing while the stock drops ahead of a crucial launch date is tough to watch. Do people want to jump on a ship or buy a new phone from a company they perceive to be sinking. It may well be that it is not actually doing so, but they are allowing the negative perception to go unanswered. That's my issue. The more I see how BBRY deals with Wall St., the more it reminds me of RIMM.

OK This is what Apple did:

Apple - Press Info - iPhone 5 Pre-Orders Top Two Million in First 24 Hours

I wonder here if the problem faced by BB is managing expectations. BB is a small player in the Smartphone business and big numbers for them might be peanuts compared to Apple. It seems like BB might be selling according to their plan ( had to increase production) so perhaps they should say that.

[John Arnold]

Here's another view on where the shares will go...I call it Battle of the Analysts.

The "Bulls" include:
1) Goldman Sachs - Best Bank. Period.
2) RBC - Best Bank in Canada
3) Scotia - Greek Analyst, just like Laz
4) Jefferies - Misek puts himself out there and is smart
5) Bernstein - Very well respected. Perhaps some of the best support you can get.

On the Bears we have:
1) Morgan Stanley - Damn, second best bank
2) Citigroup - Back office employee Jim S was converted into an analyst post cuts
3) BMO - Remember Tim's call in January; stock went on a major bull run last time he said sell.
4) Pac Crest - Boiler room operation
5) National Bank - "Give us your third quartile grads"

I'd tip the scales in the Bulls favour. Pierre Ferragu and Peter Misek are, in my mind, the best analysts. Fingers crossed.

[OMGitworks]

Joe Schmoe that walks into BestBuy couldn't care less about the price of BBRY. They don't read financial papers. They don't read The Verge. They don't read BGR. They buy what the retailer tells them to buy.

This is a red herring. It's as significant as a fart in a hurricane.

I disagree, if consumers think BBRY is bankrupt or going to be, they won't buy the phone. I think you underestimate the cool factor and public image that does effect many, granted not all, consumers. Not to mention, many BB users are more sophisticated business types and I am betting more than 1 CIO will worry about the viability of BBRY and future support. . JMHO....

[OMGitworks]

The Market Cannot Remain Irrational Forever - Seeking Alpha

Yes it can, I'll take John Maynard Keynes over some guy named George Kesarios on Seeking Alpha any day. Even so I would never short BBRY in the state we are now.

[Charles Martin1]

Here's another view on where the shares will go...I call it Battle of the Analysts.

The "Bulls" include:
1) Goldman Sachs - Best Bank. Period.
2) RBC - Best Bank in Canada
3) Scotia - Greek Analyst, just like Laz
4) Jefferies - Misek puts himself out there and is smart
5) Bernstein - Very well respected. Perhaps some of the best support you can get.

On the Bears we have:
1) Morgan Stanley - Damn, second best bank
2) Citigroup - Back office employee Jim S was converted into an analyst post cuts
3) BMO - Remember Tim's call in January; stock went on a major bull run last time he said sell.
4) Pac Crest - Boiler room operation
5) National Bank - "Give us your third quartile grads"

I'd tip the scales in the Bulls favour. Pierre Ferragu and Peter Misek are, in my mind, the best analysts. Fingers crossed.

Works for me

[doctor gonzo]

Looks like we have a date.

BlackBerry Z10 Releasing March 15th on AT&T - N4BB

[StormieTwo]

Nah. You're just navel gazing.

My focus is a higher than that!

For sure, the volume is not there, we don't have a spike down, the movement all day is one of an absence of players, not a change in trend. They have it outside the channel, now they have to keep it there and there is no convection on this sell-off. Its like TA during the Christmas holidays, not worth anything. The 5-dma will drop $ .24/shr tomorrow at the open and they'll have to put pressure on the stock again. I took my Z10 out for lunch today because the trading was so boring, at least the phone didn't let me down! The stock is getting kicked in the nuts by certain media and there is nothing to off-set this constant bashing. At some point, we are going to hear about the USA launch, the bulls will run with it when they know the launch isn't going to be delayed. For now, we wait for news to get things trading agaiin, a very boring period, I know.

StormieTwo - Thanks for posting a picture of your maid, I liked that, cheers!!!

You should see her in her french maid uniform. I run a tight ship you know.

And like I said earlier, if it drifts much lower, the speculators will come with a vengeance, and beat the shorts at their own game. Keep smiling.

[joe.miller]

I disagree, if consumers think BBRY is bankrupt or going to be, they won't buy the phone. I think you underestimate the cool factor and public image that does effect many, granted not all, consumers. Not to mention, many BB users are more sophisticated business types and I am betting more than 1 CIO will worry about the viability of BBRY and future support. . JMHO....

Let's say BlackBerry came out tomorrow and announced that they had shipped 750k units in February. It'd be ok for the stock. Maybe push it to $14-$15 range. If they don't give any kind of guidance before earnings, the stock might fall to $10. Either way, do you seriously think there will be a significant affect on sales if the stock price is at either end of that range? I don't--I doubt one consumer in 20 could tell you the first thing about the company's financials, including anything about the stock.

The average US consumer doesn't believe that BlackBerry is going out of business because of the stock price--they believe that because they haven't seen a new product in 18 months, during that same time period there's been virtually no marketing presence, and because when they go into their Verizon store to buy a new handset the 23-year old behind the counter tells them BlackBerry is going out of business (and he couldn't tell you what the stock price is either).

If the US release is anything like what has been done in Canada, once the product is available you're going to be inundated with marketing from both BlackBerry and the carriers. You won't be able to get away from it. *That* is what will affect sentiment, not any pre-earnings sales guidance from the company executive.

[joe.miller]

Yes it can, I'll take John Maynard Keynes over some guy named George Kesarios on Seeking Alpha any day. Even so I would never short BBRY in the state we are now.

I'll agree with that--the market doesn't have to remain irrational forever--just until you run out of money

[StormieTwo]

The only thing BBRY could do to improve market sentiment without revealing numbers and raising expectations would be to roll out the new android runtime and or a playbook upgrade. It would show the market that they are firing on all cylinders!

[OMGitworks]

Let's say BlackBerry came out tomorrow and announced that they had shipped 750k units in February. It'd be ok for the stock. Maybe push it to $14-$15 range. If they don't give any kind of guidance before earnings, the stock might fall to $10. Either way, do you seriously think there will be a significant affect on sales if the stock price is at either end of that range? I don't--I doubt one consumer in 20 could tell you the first thing about the company's financials, including anything about the stock.

The average US consumer doesn't believe that BlackBerry is going out of business because of the stock price--they believe that because they haven't seen a new product in 18 months, during that same time period there's been virtually no marketing presence, and because when they go into their Verizon store to buy a new handset the 23-year old behind the counter tells them BlackBerry is going out of business (and he couldn't tell you what the stock price is either).

If the US release is anything like what has been done in Canada, once the product is available you're going to be inundated with marketing from both BlackBerry and the carriers. You won't be able to get away from it. *That* is what will affect sentiment, not any pre-earnings sales guidance from the company executive.

You are making a more nuanced argument that I don't necessarily disagree with. Its a matter of degrees. I think a lot of factors influence the ***** phone store clerk, one of which is probably some other ***** telling them BBRY is going bankrupt. How and why that info gets to him is debatable. I am going to bet, at least in the US, that if you want a Z10, you are going to have to know about it ahead of time, specifically ask for it, and most likely fend off an attempt to get you to an iPhone or Droid first. I am going to avoid the hassle, and just going to order my online from Verizon.... As for the more sophisticated business and corporate buyer, I do think rumors of BBRY's demise could be a factor.

[BlackistheBerry]

Let's say BlackBerry came out tomorrow and announced that they had shipped 750k units in February. It'd be ok for the stock. Maybe push it to $14-$15 range. If they don't give any kind of guidance before earnings, the stock might fall to $10. Either way, do you seriously think there will be a significant affect on sales if the stock price is at either end of that range? I don't--I doubt one consumer in 20 could tell you the first thing about the company's financials, including anything about the stock.

The average US consumer doesn't believe that BlackBerry is going out of business because of the stock price--they believe that because they haven't seen a new product in 18 months, during that same time period there's been virtually no marketing presence, and because when they go into their Verizon store to buy a new handset the 23-year old behind the counter tells them BlackBerry is going out of business (and he couldn't tell you what the stock price is either).

If the US release is anything like what has been done in Canada, once the product is available you're going to be inundated with marketing from both BlackBerry and the carriers. You won't be able to get away from it. *That* is what will affect sentiment, not any pre-earnings sales guidance from the company executive.

I have a feeling that the marketing will be HUGE in the US. Sales will not be a problem, just as it isn't anywhere else.
The 'developing markets' Like India, Indonesia, etc. too will have good numbers, despite what people keep saying about the price of the handset.
The silence from the company may be a sign of the confidence that the company has. They probably know by now where the product, the company, and the stock is headed in the long run, and don't feel the need for 'silencing' the critics. They know that the bottom line and the numbers will eventually silence them.
The stock may not be a wise choice for a day trader, but in the long run, it certainly will be rewarding.
Just my opinion.

[mikeycollins13]

Not quite right, you see some markets 'over index' in terms of BlackBerry popularity...no if India is 3x USA. it really becomes important etc.

Thu UK and France, both are like 3x the USA per smart phone user etc.

Guessing here but you get where this is going?

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