[Markymark 23]

Please explain...curious to hear your take on it. Posted via CB10

Me too. Question for Morgan+8 and others based on M8's last post, specifically this:

"We endeared a battle here and won, the stock price ended the week unchanged and the volume backed off and now we are set to challenge the 50-dma. The 5-dma is support, it will be breached during the day but the uptrend line is the base for any quick sell-off and then we regain the 5-dma. The 5-dma will move sideways to slightly upward thus forcing us to challenge the 50-dma. Can anyone think of a way that the 50-dma will go unchallenged leading into a product launch and earnings? I think not. So we should hit $ 13.99/shr, break above it, and go for the resolution of the sym-triangle, all within the next 6 days or so."

I did a quick 5 dma for the last 20 days and came up with this (based on Nasdaq figures) and starting with close on Friday: 13.23, 13.85, 15.29, 15.40. Now I know I'm missing something but these numbers are going down week after week. The 15.40 number is for the first full week after the launch btw. Without earth shattering news coming in before 1) U.S. launches and /or 2) the ER, why is it that the next 6 days or so may see us at the 13.99 mark (or thereabouts). The days leading up to the launch showed an increase in the 5 dma's commencing the week of the 7th of January. Before that it was flat for about 2 weeks hovering in the 11.00 range (+/-). And between 21 December and 10 January the stock moved from 10.91 to 11.92 - about a dollar's worth.

So from a real newb's point of view, it wasn't until 2 trading weeks before launch that the 5 dma's showed a progressive up trend. We are about 4 trading weeks away from the ER and I assume some U.S. launch action. Isn't next week a little too soon to expect the upswing in anticipation of both these events??? I apologize for sounding so simplistic without considering 50 dma's or other tech stuff....that's M8's forte. Do I gather that the 50 dma points to the upswing at this point? With so much manipulation still going on, I wonder how it can be accurate under the circumstances.

Any thoughts? And hey, if this post is just stupid, let me know and I'll edit it away lol.

[DudeBB]

[QUOTE=Shanerredflag;8059080]Please explain...curious to hear your take on it.
See first two pictures Gold ETFs Are Nearing A Breakout Point
Thanks.

[DudeBB]

haha, your TA compared morgan8's is far superior! Thanks for all the useful advise. I guess i should short the stock right? \sarcasm

Hmm..

[mrfreetruth]

Oops... I am not giving any advise. I just expressed my opinion. Track morgan8's messages and mine and compare with market movements for the BB. )

How do you put Tr__Ls on ignore?

[bungaboy]

Oops... I am not giving any advise. I just expressed my opinion. Track morgan8's messages and mine and compare with market movements for the BB. )

Have you given any consideration to perhaps starting a thread to discuss your opinions? I am finding the water is getting murky and I am easily confused.

I am not trying to be antagonistic or to flame.

[_dimi_]

Hi morganplus8,

First of all, thanks (again) for the updates!

Just a quick question:
Let's assume this becomes a 'textbook' Pennant Continuation due to upgrades, sales figures,... Where would we see the bottom of the 'flagpole'?

My guess is at approx. $8.5?

[peter9477]

Good luck and remember when this stock hits 50 are you going to care weather you bought at 12 or 15

Actually yeah. :-)

Climb from $12 to $50 means 317% gain.

Climb from $15 to $50 means 233% gain.

If I invested $10,000 that would be an extra $8,333 or so in gains.

I'll take the extra 83% return on my original investment, thankyouverymuch. ;-)

[DragonFlyer]

BlackBerry 10 tablet to be unveiled later this year; PlayBook to get the BB10 update

I suspect that the new BB10 tablet will be more of a work horse than a play toy. I believe this will be their first attempt at replacing laptops. It will be a high end product with a hefty price tag on it and be superior to the surface pro. I can't see BlackBerry getting in to the lower end tablet market. I hope they get it right and are not rushing a product to market before it's ready.

[Marc_Paradise]

That article also says most apps are ported apps when most are not...


Too, I'm pretty sure BBRY spoke up and said that a new tablet was not going to happen this year, shortly after N4bb reported on this same tidbit?

[StormieTwo]

Morgan/ Charles,

Thanks for the updates. Here's a hypothetical for you both. Given the the shorts have very deep pockets, and guys like Prem can't buy more shares, how much would the bulls have to dump into shares to cause the SP to break the way we want it to? Cause the hedge funds to switched gears/ algorithms and started buying blocks. Could it be done with a few million dollars? Or are we talking about dozens or hundreds?

Clearly, if the stock price can be manipulated down it can be manipulated up. What we need is a catalyst to start the trend before the US or ER.

[gilmanhlee]

Have you given any consideration to perhaps starting a thread to discuss your opinions? I am finding the water is getting murky and I am easily confused.

I am not trying to be antagonistic or to flame.

I'm waiting for the stock to go up and that may clear up the water.

Few posts on this thread do bother me and even scare me at times - I'll face it.
Who knows, it'll make me strong at the end.

[Zarpan]

[QUOTE=DudeBB;8059292]

Please explain...curious to hear your take on it.
See first two pictures Gold ETFs Are Nearing A Breakout Point

In my opinion, trading using TA is the same as to trade on rumor(fake, unproved, non-official) news about sales of millions BB devices.

You are definitely entitled to your opinion on which methods are most helpful for stock analysis. However, perhaps you could express your own opinions more helpfully than by posting your own fake analysis or posting fake information (like your Z10 activation numbers) that you claim comes from BlackBerry employees?

[DragonFlyer]

Yahoo to shut down seven products, including Blackberry app - Yahoo! News

[bungaboy]

Yahoo to shut down seven products, including Blackberry app - Yahoo! News

First she took away their BlackBerries, then she shut down the BlackBerry app.

Now she is making them come to the office to work because without the BlackBerries . . . . . . . . they don't get $hit done!

BRILLIANT move Yahoos.

[DudeBB]

[QUOTE=Zarpan;8060237][QUOTE=DudeBB;8059292]
Hmm... or... maybe...

[StormieTwo]

Aren't we at stage 2, according to that book someone referenced a few pages back.
And Dude, there is ample evidence that some people want to believe that bbry is still in bad times. (Even though the price has doubled from bottom)

[DudeBB]

Bo-o-oring...

[morganplus8]

Hi morganplus8,

First of all, thanks (again) for the updates!

Just a quick question:
Let's assume this becomes a 'textbook' Pennant Continuation due to upgrades, sales figures,... Where would we see the bottom of the 'flagpole'?

My guess is at approx. $8.5?

dimi!!!

Thanks for those kind words, regarding your question: ..... not for me my friend, $ 11.50/shr is the bottom of the pole, IF you can convince me that a Continuation Pennant has formed. I don't see it at all. In fact, from mid-December, we are unchanged here meaning that other than a brief pop prior to the launch, we have gone nowhere. I did create a possible CP that was created on the first leg up. What do you think? I believe you are looking for something more current and that's where we're apart. The sym-triangle is very well defined here having the 5-directional change pattern that we need to resolve this trade higher.



That's the best that I can do, please post a chart with your version of the CP. In mine, the stock pops up, stalls out, drops off over time, and then breaks back to the upside. It is weak at best though!


For others to follow along:
Flag and Pennant Continuation - A Trader's Notepad... Your Free Learn to Trade Resource

Let me know what you think and possibly post a chart if you can!

[Sqoon]

Just swapped out my z10 for a new one. The old one had a bad usb port.
The new one had a received date of Feb 16 written on it. It makes me think that the demand has slowed down since launch.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Me too. Question for Morgan+8 and others based on M8's last post, specifically this:

I did a quick 5 dma for the last 20 days and came up with this (based on Nasdaq figures) and starting with close on Friday: 13.23, 13.85, 15.29, 15.40. Now I know I'm missing something but these numbers are going down week after week. The 15.40 number is for the first full week after the launch btw. Without earth shattering news coming in before 1) U.S. launches and /or 2) the ER, why is it that the next 6 days or so may see us at the 13.99 mark (or thereabouts). The days leading up to the launch showed an increase in the 5 dma's commencing the week of the 7th of January. Before that it was flat for about 2 weeks hovering in the 11.00 range (+/-). And between 21 December and 10 January the stock moved from 10.91 to 11.92 - about a dollar's worth.

So from a real newb's point of view, it wasn't until 2 trading weeks before launch that the 5 dma's showed a progressive up trend. We are about 4 trading weeks away from the ER and I assume some U.S. launch action. Isn't next week a little too soon to expect the upswing in anticipation of both these events??? I apologize for sounding so simplistic without considering 50 dma's or other tech stuff....that's M8's forte. Do I gather that the 50 dma points to the upswing at this point? With so much manipulation still going on, I wonder how it can be accurate under the circumstances.

Any thoughts? And hey, if this post is just stupid, let me know and I'll edit it away lol.

Hi Markymark!

I think you are creating an indicator that is a lagging barometer of where the stock is trending. If you add 5-days of closes divided by 5-days, you get an average of those five days. The problem with that is you need 5 days worth of completed data to plot the move in the stock chart and the stock could have broken out, sold off and bounced back in five days, thus showing you nothing on the lagging indicator. You don't want to create a weekly summary chart, you want to see a dynamic chart. It needs to take in current real-time trades and feed back information to you now! THe daily 5-dma does just that.

Here is your chart:



This is a 5 day averaged chart called the weekly 5-dma and it shows us that we have been trending over time but it doesn't help us know what to do with our stock position. We always have to wait a week to find out what happened to the trade. Traders will never follow a chart like this unless it is over 3 years or so. The goal of a trader is to match the stock and the way it trades with the best indicator. In the case of BBRY it is the 5-dma.

Now here is a chart of a true 5-dma which is calculated by dropping off the 6th day, and adding in the current days' closes. So for this coming Monday, you would look at the 5-day old high/low/close and subtract that close from this past Fridays close to calculate the opening 5-dma for this coming Monday trading. Lets see if we can figure out where the 5-dma will open on Monday. As luck would have it, you count back five days of completed trading you find that the stock closed at $ 13.25/shr right where it closed on this past Friday! So when the stock opens up on Monday, and we assume it will open up unchanged just to test the formula, the change in gain of loss when we drop the old 6th day figures just happens to be zero! If the stock were $ 14.25 five days ago we would have to average the $ 1.00/shr by dividing it by 5 = $ .20/shr higher for the 5-dma. And so the opening 5-dma for BBRY this coming Monday would be higher than Fridays 5-dma by $ .20/shr.



Note that in this chart, because the old 6th days trade is updated with the current days trade, the average becomes a current or leading indicator with real-time movement. The current days trade is now dynamic and changing with every penny movement, thus traders can see a trend change in a moment of time. The stock tries to get through the leading indicator and fails on light volume, hard selling etc., and falls below the 5-dma. When we know what tomorrow can bring we can plan our trade. BBRY went up by staying above the 5-dma every day, why, because pros watch for it to find support at the 5-dma. Over the last 3 weeks, it has been the opposite with the stock failing to get above the 5-dma. But the last three days, we have closed above the 5-dma and that will bring in buyers. Shorts will want to cover and we will make an attempt to clear the 50-dma and rally again soon. We are range bound by the 5-dma and the uptrend line and overhead, we have the 50-dma. If we continue to stay above the 5-dma, the indicator will rise pushing us toward the 50-dma which is falling slowly. We need to do something here, we can't trade in this narrow range forever, and so this sym-triangle is formed and we need to trade up and complete it. The spread for Monday is exactly $ .75/shr and going tighter every day so it is a matter of time before we make a big move. With the launch of the Z10 in North America, I would think the move will be up within the next 6 days. Hope this helps!!

[lcjr]

BlackBerry 10 tablet to be unveiled later this year; PlayBook to get the BB10 update

I suspect that the new BB10 tablet will be more of a work horse than a play toy. I believe this will be their first attempt at replacing laptops. It will be a high end product with a hefty price tag on it and be superior to the surface pro. I can't see BlackBerry getting in to the lower end tablet market. I hope they get it right and are not rushing a product to market before it's ready.

Now that would be what I've been waiting for. It would be nice to hear this from Blackberry soon though, just so its official and all. Mobile computing to me means a nice tablet, great phone, and a docking station that allows me to tap into cloud based documents and programs to get things done on the go. Just my opinion, but I would like to see the tablet enlarged to 8 inches.

[Markymark 23]

Hi Markymark! I think you are creating an indicator that is a lagging barometer of where the stock is trending. If you add 5-days of closes divided by 5-days, you get an average of those five days. The problem with that is.....

Wow Morgan8...thanks so much. Had a feeling I missed something and was hoping you'd chime in rather quickly to put me right. Admittedly I had to read your response to my simpleton points a few times but I get it now and have a much better understanding of the dma's and how they come into play. Brilliant (you...not me lol). This stuff is FASCINATING !!! And you're a great teacher.

(PS...one day I'd love to see a pic of your namesake. I'm a car guy and in awe.....a true sports car in British sports car tradition. Cheers!!)

[DragonFlyer]

I love this artical and the comments.
I think I'm going to post it every day.

BlackBerry's Thorsten Heins: What Does He Know? - Seeking Alpha

[DragonFlyer]

Now that would be what I've been waiting for. It would be nice to hear this from Blackberry soon though, just so its official and all. Mobile computing to me means a nice tablet, great phone, and a docking station that allows me to tap into cloud based documents and programs to get things done on the go. Just my opinion, but I would like to see the tablet enlarged to 8 inches.

Read the comment from Tech Advisor in this artical. I think he knows something that we are only speculating.

BlackBerry's Thorsten Heins: What Does He Know? - Seeking Alpha

[sentimentGX4]

In my opinion, trading using TA is the same as to trade on rumor(fake, unproved, non-official) news about sales of millions BB devices.

There are many tenets of technical analysis, many which often conflict. It's quite possible for some to have degrees of usefulness and others to be less useful. Furthermore, just because technical analysis doesn't work for an individual doesn't mean that technical analysis doesn't work. Technical analysis, like any skill, can be abused and misapplied.

The most core tenets of technical analysis, namely trend, are sound. The reason trend works is because markets are imperfect. It often takes months for markets to adjust to fundamental change and trend catches this fundamental price adjustment. The problem, however, is that trend does not always exist. As a matter of fact, many technical analysts actually believe there is only a price trend 50% of the time. When there is no trend, any reference to "support levels", "resistance levels", "channel lines", or "trend lines" is incorrect. It is important for us to acknowledge when we don't have knowledge regarding price movements rather than to arbitrarily force technical analysis onto a chart and then blame technical analysis when something goes wrong.