[lcjr]

Seeing we closed in the green again today, where does this put us for tomorrow? Any predictions out there?

[cjcampbell]

Where do you see that? I see on NASDAQ that it closed at $13.39 and the day's high was $13.79. Did I miss something?

He's talking about the TSX. Due to the exchange rate, it has been higher lately.

[primusd]

Where do you see that? I see on NASDAQ that it closed at $13.39 and the day's high was $13.79. Did I miss something?

TSX, not NASDAQ (BB not BBRY)

[joe.miller]

PIN messgaes (much rarer, i dont know anyone whose ever used the method)

It's less common, but people still us it. I have an acquaintance that is considering returning his Z10, partially because PIN-to-PIN messaging is no longer supported.

[DragonFlyer]

He's talking about the TSX. Due to the exchange rate, it has been higher lately.

Even with the exchange rate it is off track after that 20 cent jump

[abouthsu]

http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/02/res...hina-strategy/

For the longs here: BB will not go far ... they need a partner. Brand names are huge in China . Doing what they have always done is not working in China. Sure they will sell some Z10's but not enough.

I will add being in China for years and a Asian myself. These analyst probably barely live there and long enough to know what is going on other than numbers.

Branding and marketing is everything. As funny as this may sound. Expensive is better mentally play a big part especially in China.

Due to economy boom, a lot of the rich folks don't have the same media exposer like we have here.

I have seen a lot of them buying things base on price tag than actually understanding the value of the product.

No one knows if expensive price tag will work against BBRY.

But only time will tell.

[BBNation]

Morgon, We are addicted to your post, chart and analysis..Chart please ??

[DragonFlyer]

It's less common, but people still us it. I have an acquaintance that is considering returning his Z10, partially because PIN-to-PIN messaging is no longer supported.

I thought PIN-to-PIN and BBM were the same. I guess I never used PIN-to-PIN. Anybody feel like telling me what the difference is?

[primusd]

More talk (analysis might be a stretch) about the potential impact in emerging markets of the loss of BIS.

Why BlackBerry Is About To Lose Its Dominance In Emerging Markets - Seeking Alpha

I've commented about this myself in various parts of the site... I realise BB7 isn't going away any time soon (and associated service revenue), but I am hopeful that TH has something up his sleeve that bridges the gap between a modern OS/ecosystem and the realities of data costs in developing countries (maybe someway to provide compressed email and bbm, but all other data via wifi??). I wonder now that things are more clear about this whether there will be some pointed questions during the earnings call?

[morganplus8]

Morgon, We are addicted to your post, chart and analysis..Chart please ??

Okay, here is the last close-up chart that I will do for awhile:



We have had some great days lately, we put in a bottom for this sell-off holding $ 13.00/shr. We then reversed our trend from 13 straight days with the stock following a channel down to one where we now see higher lows and highers highs. It took 3 weeks to arrive at a new trend but we did it, as you can see, all of the trading has been within tight channels here, we are now forming one that takes us back to $ 14.00/shr. The 50-dma is at $ 14.00/shr, and we need to get above that mark on heavy volume to signal a new bull run. Support is at $ 13.00/shr now and we are looking to gain the 50-dma next week barring any news. Again, today was perfect, we made a new recent high, pulled back and found great support at yesterdays close and popped again. None of this means we are going to race skyward, we are just going to the $ 14.00 level to test the 50-dma. So if you wanted to day trade this play, you would place your trades within the new uptrend channel, expecting it to come very close to both levels each day.

Looking at the 6-month run:



We have corrected for 3 weeks now, and longer on the RSI, this means that a healthy base is in here which suggests that we will have some $ 1.00/shr up/down days followed by a break through the 50-dma which only gives us another $ 1.00/shr swing before we are asking the stock to breakout of its sym-triangle. The breakout has to occur within the next 7 trading days. That's not too long to wait here and the upside target becomes $ 22.00/shr. If sales of the Z10 are great, or, the US launch looks good with some bonus apps to go with that nice phone, the target isn't much to obtain here.

I know there are some of you that want it to go back down a couple of bucks but as long as the general market holds up, you aren't likely to see us down again. Note that AAPL sold off today, and when it started making new afternoon lows, that's when BBRY backed up too on very light volume. AAPL looks terrible, one of the worst chart patterns in the market today. They are $ 6.00/shr away from hitting a new 52 week low here. In addition, NOK is heading for a fall as well, so it is BB that is going it alone now and if they get the PR right, the stock will fly. I predicted that short interest would be higher on this sell-off and it appears the bears are comfortable holding a massive short position here. There aren't enough call options on BBRY to come close to ever covering or hedging these shorts positions, less than 10%. We could have a massive short covering on those sales numbers. If you are short this play you need to think about how you will get out of this position.

The stock is trading beautifully here, we don't need any news to challenge the 50-dma so let the stock follow our channel and trade it if you dare! GL

If you need a different chart, say a 1-year, or have a request for something different, please feel free to ask.

[Shanerredflag]

Your very kind for doing this M8....thank you

Posted via CB10

[John Arnold]

My 2 cents....looked at a couple of research reports sent to Hedge Funds to guide their investing in BBRY. Messages were the same:
1) Production issues with Z10 will keep sales below consensus estimates (read: still higher than 300,000). In my view, Heins sh*t the bed on this one
2) Mixed views on the sell through. None of the groups bought Heins optimism...said the UK firms still had stock
3) BB7 is not going to have a rough quarter...expect significant material drop off in May quarter
4) US Carriers not impressed with Z10...do not think it will sell well....more optimistic about the Q10, but think this is an ecosystem battle

I sense these reports have contributed to the recent rise in short interest...which is kind of disappointing really. I wish BBRY surprises us...on the one hand, they impressed with the rising cash balances the past 2 quarters....on the other hand, they have disappointed me so many times....

Bottom line....I am holding my shares...the short interest is very high and must take all this negativity into account. Even if this quarter sucks, their is always next quarter....after that, worse case, someone buys them. I told a friend BBRY would rise in January and generally proceed up as the good news rolled in....naive in retrospect....BBRY's management could never make it that easy.

Best of luck

[Gerard Fraser]

@morganplus8
Great charts.I do not understand any of them,but as I read what you post I am amazed.
I am a simple non business guy,do not know anything about stocks,and now I I bought a few thousand black berry stock.
You are an inspiration to people people like me who need guidance be it good or bad.
Keep up the good work

[BBNation]

Not sure if someone already posted but this is what I have been saying..BIS revenue will not disappear overnight..sell BB10 with higher upfront revenue for BB and sell custome services to businesses..after about a year..sell only bb10 when the cost of bb10 comes down..

BlackBerry Bull Changes Tune and Cuts its Price Target | RapidBerry

[joe.miller]

1) Production issues with Z10 will keep sales below consensus estimates (read: still higher than 300,000). In my view, Heins sh*t the bed on this one

While it would be nice to have been able to produce enough to meet the demand, given their limited cash position they couldn't risk overproducing, and have extraneous inventory sitting around. Like happened with the PlayBook.

One person might call it sh*ting the bed, another would call it being conservative with their cash.

[Bugmapper]

. I predicted that short interest would be higher on this sell-off and it appears the bears are comfortable holding a massive short position here. There aren't enough call options on BBRY to come close to ever covering or hedging these shorts positions, less than 10%. We could have a massive short covering on those sales numbers. If you are short this play you need to think about how you will get out of this position.

Yes, thank you.

[kfh227]

I'm sure Wall Street and everyone's Grandmother knew what production should have been. And those fools at BBRY that did all the actual research to project demand were clueless.

[Bbnivende]

@morganplus8
Great charts.I do not understand any of them,but as I read what you post I am amazed.
I am a simple non business guy,do not know anything about stocks,and now I I bought a few thousand black berry stock.
You are an inspiration to people people like me who need guidance be it good or bad.
Keep up the good work

So Gerard has invested $20,000 to $30,000 in stock on the basis of stock charts that he does not understand. To me that is like going to Las Vegas with $30,000 in your pocket. Good luck Gerard ,, I hope you know when to sell. Make a small profit and then get out is what I say.

[Kid Vibe]

Does anyone here have a definitive sell point?

[DragonFlyer]

So Gerard has invested $20,000 to $30,000 in stock on the basis of stock charts that he does not understand. To me that is like going to Las Vegas with $30,000 in your pocket. Good luck Gerard ,, I hope you know when to sell. Make a small profit and then get out is what I say.

I would have to think that a lot of investors out there know very little about charts, but knows a good company when they see one and want to invest in the company instead of what a chart looks like. Not knowing Gerard at all I can only guess he falls into this catagory and M+8s info is helping him understand what the stock is doing on a daily basis.

[kfh227]

Does anyone here have a definitive sell point?

I'll sell when Satan pries the shares from my dead cold hands.

Stock:
Seriously, I don't intend on selling the actual stock I hold for a long, log time. Right now, I legitimately think the stock is worth $40-$50. If the Z10 is doing well, I think this stock is worth much more than that. I will adjust my fair value calc as things change and more information is available. If at any time, I think BBRY is grossly overvalue, I will dump it all.

Options:
I plan on selling a few options off at $20-$25 somewhere. I'll probably start selling more options off when it nears $50/share and goes up from there. What I do is a little more fancy than I talk about here, but basically, I will roll over my 2014 Jan options into 2015 options.

Play money 1:
I do have some cash in options that I buy on dips ($13/$14) and sell off on run ups ($17 or so).

Play money 2:
I lost some money on very short term calls 3 times now. I am not doing that anymore.

[Shanerredflag]

Does anyone here have a definitive sell point?

Yes...but I lost the paper its written on....KIDDING.

I'm in cheap enough I am couple years long provided the world doesn't explode or some development which will obviously destroy the company emerges. So long as they are executing effectively and the numbers improve no reason to limit this one imo. (might miss a few points on top but pay attention and no worries).

[Bugmapper]

Does anyone here have a definitive sell point?

As long as I feel the stock is undervalued I'm long. I'll reevaluate when I see the 50dma turn down. Right now it's a $20 stock, and if bb10rolls out well in us then it is a $40 stock in the fall.

[Kid Vibe]

I'm giving this stock until July to stop and re-evaluate the company (bearing in mind, it doesn't plummet).

[Bbnivende]

I would have to think that a lot of investors out there know very little about charts, but knows a good company when they see one and want to invest in the company instead of what a chart looks like. Not knowing Gerard at all I can only guess he falls into this catagory and M+8s info is helping him understand what the stock is doing on a daily basis.

Sorry ... no single company should be anyone's investment. This is not investing ,it is wishful thinking. Only do this type of investing if you don't care if you lose. Gerard would be better off in investing in himself by taking investing courses. There will always be chances to get in on "the bottom floor".