[BBNation]

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 14 days = ~140K
UK: assume the same ~140K
UAE: just few days ~50K
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K

It comes to ~340Ks but not millions or even a half of million.

You need to add business ones which do not go thru retailers,..they go thro business reps. UK alone was more 100k for biz. Consider Canadian, UK and UAE biz bulk orders. My company orderted 10 for testing and we will do 200 in coming months..

[Shanerredflag]

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 14 days = ~140K
UK: assume the same ~140K
UAE: just few days ~50K
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K

It comes to ~340Ks but not millions or even a half of million.

Your numbers are skewed bud...it's been for sale in Canada for 21 days already and to just pick numbers arbitrarily is useless...fun, but useless.

[kfh227]

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 14 days = ~140K
UK: assume the same ~140K
UAE: just few days ~50K
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K

It comes to ~340Ks but not millions or even a half of million.

The numbers are not consistent with what people are reporting. Curious as to where the daily numbers are coming from.

Ignoring that, my only comment is:
The UK has similar smartphone pentration as Canada but with 2x the population. Might want to double you UK number.

[fedakd]

You said you weren't a native english speaker in previous comments. Well, I have news for you, your math skills aren't so great either. Arbitrary numbers are NOT math.

Wish this forum had an "ignore" button.

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 14 days = ~140K
UK: assume the same ~140K
UAE: just few days ~50K
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K

It comes to ~340Ks but not millions or even a half of million.

[DudeBB]

The numbers are not consistent with what people are reporting. Curious as to where the daily numbers are coming from.
Might want to double you UK number.

I already doubled it. It was mentioned above that 5000 stores across Canada and UK. I put 5000 stores for each country. It comes to 280K together. Thus, we are fine here.

[DudeBB]

You said you weren't a native english speaker in previous comments. Well, I have news for you, your math skills aren't so great either. Arbitrary numbers are NOT math.
Wish this forum had an "ignore" button.

Then, tell me where do you get those millions in numbers?

It is like telling "sweet, sweet"" doesn't make sweet in your mouth. I would reconsider my view if you provide me with something better.

[DragonFlyer]

I'm going to bet my reputation that BB sells over 900,001 Z10s by end of quarter. Any other bets?

[Shanerredflag]

Then, tell me where do you get those millions in numbers?

It is like telling "sweet, sweet"" doesn't make sweet in your mouth. I would reconsider my view if you provide me with something better.

What's your goal exactly?

[Shanerredflag]

I'm going to bet my reputation that BB sells over 900,001 Z10s by end of quarter. Any other bets?

I'm betting they are more than 340k ~

[BBNation]

Even if 5 units shipped to each store ( 2000 BB stores ) before Mar 2nd, they are counted as sold.
New BlackBerry Z10 smartphone launched in India , AniNews.in

[DudeBB]

What's your goal exactly?

My goal, to be exact, to recover my loses and to make some considerable profit. I think Z10 is not so great. Most of people are waiting for Q10 with a keyboard. If each store will keep selling 1-2 devices per day then it comes to a million naturally.

[silversun10]

Here's something for you, I wrote my peer reviewed and published dissertation challenging Joseph Stiglitz and Eugene Fama with regard to their hypothesis of Efficient Market Theory or EMH/EMT. For decades, it was assumed that all markets work/clear in an efficient manner. I proved that this was no longer the case, using empirical/statistical reference, I was able to assign a probability that EMH was no longer explanatory or useful for clearing trades in the stock market. One of the tools I used was Bollinger Bands which is a great statistical vehicle for determining whether stocks trade within prescribed boundaries until there is something injected into the trade to make it "adjust itself" higher or lower. The short of it is this, I was successful in providing statistical reference to the fact that a significant number of historical stock trade patterns could not be explained via the EM Theory. Now, if Charles Martin1 wanted to really argue with my use of technical analysis, he would need go no further than quoting me from my own dissertation! (Am I the only one who sees the humor in all of this?)

To answer your question, the best empirical information out there is derived from these two gentlemen. If you Google them, you will learn a great deal about the market and how it clears through daily trading, and how it absorbs news and reacts and adjusts to new levels of information. As you well know, not everyone is privy to all of the inputs to the trade at the same time. Thus there is some room to debate the usefulness of technical trading. As much as I like TA, I also hold an MBA, among other degrees, and I can assure you, BlackBerry has to stand on its own financials too. You might see how TA works in many situations, such as the past 11 trading days when the price of the stock always rallies to its 5-dma and fails to continue, only to react and head lower. This is normal trading and nothing we should be concerned about. After trading for a very long time, and, having personal access to fundamental information and the ability to decifer it, I would conclude that every trader/investor needs to know how "others" are trading, and let's face it, many are making use of TA.

If I think of a particular article or book I'll be sure to pass it along to you. GL

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis by David Aronson

great to have great minds around here...........

[silversun10]

My goal, to be exact, to recover my loses and to make some considerable profit. I think Z10 is not so great. Most of people are waiting for Q10 with a keyboard. If each store will keep selling 1-2 devices per day then it comes to a million naturally.

whatever you are posting, it is not so great.....

[DudeBB]

whatever you are posting, it is not so great.....

I think prices should jump before ER because people submit tax returns and they start getting refunds in March and to buy stocks. Thus, those who wants to shake out average investors should bring prices up before. The best time to bring prices up is the beginning of March or even starting from tomorrow (PST time). Many people are paying bills at the beginning of the month and after that they can dedicate some money into investments. This is a good time to bring prices up without having too many small investors in.

[anon(757282)]

You want to go to bed with some good (even fake) news to get some sleep, don't you? I just want to be realistic.

I think prices should jump before ER because people submit tax returns and they start getting refunds in March and to buy stocks. Thus, those who wants to shake out average investors should bring prices up before. The best time to bring prices up is the beginning of March or even starting from tomorrow (PST time). Many people are paying bills at the beginning of the month and after that they can dedicate some money into investments. This is a good time to bring prices up without having too many small investors in.

Tiny investors like you and me and anyone waiting for a tax return to buy a couple shares does not move the market. We just ride the rollercoaster powered by the big dogs.

[doctor gonzo]

I love this forum. Everyday I see the passion in all those that post here. However sometimes it seems like many want to make their fortunes in hours and days rather than months or years, but to each his own. I first thought about investing in BB last spring/summer. The new CEO had almost immediately turned off the masses, the stock price was in the shi..tter and things just generally looked bad. But he eventually set some concrete dates for releases and he brought direction and focus to rally his troops and I felt like something special was brewing. So I jumped in. Bought my first shares in November, 8.60 I think. I've been picking them up ever since when I feel like they're low. Like many of you I'm sure, I tried day trading and I must say I've had mixed results. But in the end I take solace in these points.

1. Little or no debt.
2. A wad of cash to launch. (close to 3 billion at one point)
3. Lot's of patents. (valuations vary but still substantial)
4. Unrealized potential of QNX and the BB10 OS.
5. Excellent design team TAT.

How could this end badly?

Special Thanks to Morgan Plus and all the chartists for trying to make sanity out of all the trading madness that is BB. (or BBRY if you're American) If you stand far enough back it seems like the charts are working.

In the immortal words of some Mexican beer drinking dude...Stay long my friends!

I should state that I am long BB and am basically a complete gambling idjoit so in no way should anybody ever take anything I say seriously.

[nsurace]

I bought too the shares. I believe in Bb and I love its philosophy!

[Komoto]

No offence DudeBB, i think you are misinformed or are talking crap. I am willing to consider that BB10 is a total flop or not selling so well if you can produce some evidence or a well reasoned logical argument to show this, which you haven't yet. As someone mentioned you can always provide a screen shot of that forum and we can do the translation ourselves...

Your post about how stocks are valued really didnt make much sense whatsoever, I understood what you were trying to say, but it sounded more like a conspiracy theory.

Second your analysis of the projected sales figures was really skewed. I was in London just after the launch for work and hoped to pick one up, i couldnt find a z10 in any of the stores that i went to. If they had had stock i woud have a Z10 now, but i dont. Shortly after this the price to buy it was hiked from 480 to 550 sterling. Why would they do this if it wasnt selling well?

[Charles Martin1]

I'm going to bet my reputation that BB sells over 900,001 Z10s by end of quarter. Any other bets?

~1.5 million

[bungaboy]

I had an update the other day for my z10. Extending battery life was one of the fixes.

Who was the update from?

[mrfreetruth]

My goal, to be exact, to recover my loses and to make some considerable profit. I think Z10 is not so great. Most of people are waiting for Q10 with a keyboard. If each store will keep selling 1-2 devices per day then it comes to a million naturally.

You invested nothing. You are a troll. People report his posts. Troll just signed up and is posting nothing but nonsense and trying to disrupt our thread. Report him now.

[Bugmapper]

Awww...man. Did we pick up a troll?

[Sith_Apprentice]

While I dont see any obvious trolling here, everyone just relax and lets have a nice spirited debate without the name calling. The main disagreement would be the estimated numbers, but thats just it, its an estimate. People wanting to recover losses in the stock market are quite common, just as people trying to make money and/or supporting the company. From what I can tell, the numbers are a bit off though, even if only on the number of days devices were sold.

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 14 days = ~140K
UK: assume the same ~140K
UAE: just few days ~50K
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K

It comes to ~340Ks but not millions or even a half of million.

Even if each store sold 2 units a day, and there are (estimated) 5000 stores in the countries, the numbers would look a bit different.

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 23 days = ~230k
UK: assume the same (5000 stores * 2 units * 28 days) = ~ 280k
UAE: just few days ~50K I can go with this number
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K I think this might be low, but ill leave as is
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K Again, probably low but Ill leave it for sake of argument

It comes to ~580K but not millions or even a half of million.

That is 580,000 devices without the US Market, without China, and BARELY launching in India and much of Europe not being counted. US Market has more smartphone users (almost) than the entire population of the UK and Canada Combined, and a very high percentage of Smart Phones. Next quarter *should* be very very good for RIM. If the count is something slightly different, even 3 units per store, the picture is closer to 1 million devices sold in February.

[crackerdoodle]

troll alert

[Alexander Tran]

While I dont see any obvious trolling here, everyone just relax and lets have a nice spirited debate without the name calling. The main disagreement would be the estimated numbers, but thats just it, its an estimate. People wanting to recover losses in the stock market are quite common, just as people trying to make money and/or supporting the company. From what I can tell, the numbers are a bit off though, even if only on the number of days devices were sold.



Even if each store sold 2 units a day, and there are (estimated) 5000 stores in the countries, the numbers would look a bit different.

Lets do some math. Assume the following
Canada: 5000 stores * 2 units * 23 days = ~230k
UK: assume the same (5000 stores * 2 units * 28 days) = ~ 280k
UAE: just few days ~50K I can go with this number
Spain & Portugal: just few days ~10K I think this might be low, but ill leave as is
India: Just started with a price tag $800. 2000 stores in 50cities * 2 units * 2 days = ~8K Again, probably low but Ill leave it for sake of argument

It comes to ~580K but not millions or even a half of million.

That is 580,000 devices without the US Market, without China, and BARELY launching in India and much of Europe not being counted. US Market has more smartphone users (almost) than the entire population of the UK and Canada Combined, and a very high percentage of Smart Phones. Next quarter *should* be very very good for RIM. If the count is something slightly different, even 3 units per store, the picture is closer to 1 million devices sold in February.

I believe your numbers are way too conservative. By making the assumption that Canada sold 2 units per day, you dont take into account for initial launch units sold or pre order units sold. Additionally, if you're talking about number of days it's been up for sale, the Z10s been up for sale for 19 days in Canada and not 14 given that Q4 ends in March 2. I think you should recalculate your figures given these details.