The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
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- I support BBRY, but I don't have money to buy the shares. I have actually saved up for BBZ10 and had been loyal user of BB for over 5 years now. Go BBRY.02-26-13 06:36 PMLike 5
- No way technical analysis is 70% accurate or predictive.. Most PROFESSIONAL traders can't even beat the indexes. Its one school of thought. Useful but not the end all or be all. Most day traders lose money and end up broke. Tech analysis is a helpful guide and crutch, but it requires interpretation and experience to use properly. Maybe it tilts your odds above 50/50, but 70%, I would never believe that. Charts always look great after the fact when you know where you have been and where you actually went.
M+8 posts charts with thoughtful analysis and obviously has experience behind what and how he is looking at things. I enjoy and appreciate his work, but I am willing to bet he won't claim they are always right or that he has never lost money on a trade. Maybe he would go to 70% but personally I wouldn't go that far. Respectfully, and I mean that, I bet if we went back and looked at even his charts, that they wouldn't be perfect or more than 70% predictive. Tech analysis tells us what the author and theories SHOULD happen, but that doesn't mean it WILL happen. BBRY proves that.joe.miller likes this.02-26-13 06:36 PMLike 1 - Most fail and end up bankrupt. Almost all of the rest are lairs about their performance. The studies I have seen say that less than 10% of day traders can actually make a living over any period of time.02-26-13 06:40 PMLike 0
- morganplus8, are there peer-reviewed studies showing the efficacy of the kind of technical analysis you are doing?
I'll be honest and say I've always been skeptical of chartists. I pretty much think along the lines of Malkiel who opined that it's much like astrology. If there is scientific evidence for this, I'd of course change my mind.
To answer your question, the best empirical information out there is derived from these two gentlemen. If you Google them, you will learn a great deal about the market and how it clears through daily trading, and how it absorbs news and reacts and adjusts to new levels of information. As you well know, not everyone is privy to all of the inputs to the trade at the same time. Thus there is some room to debate the usefulness of technical trading. As much as I like TA, I also hold an MBA, among other degrees, and I can assure you, BlackBerry has to stand on its own financials too. You might see how TA works in many situations, such as the past 11 trading days when the price of the stock always rallies to its 5-dma and fails to continue, only to react and head lower. This is normal trading and nothing we should be concerned about. After trading for a very long time, and, having personal access to fundamental information and the ability to decifer it, I would conclude that every trader/investor needs to know how "others" are trading, and let's face it, many are making use of TA.
If I think of a particular article or book I'll be sure to pass it along to you. GL02-26-13 06:55 PMLike 16 - Today's DoD news confirmed that they got 470000 BBs and this is what I have been saying that big US goverment users is cream for BB and BB/Carriers need to get z10 and q10 out ASAP before further damage is done. That is just one department with almost half million BBs, add other goverments, businesses including banks,..22% of total BBs market share is still USAmorganplus8 and Nindia like this.02-26-13 06:57 PMLike 2
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Personally, I love and look forward to your charts.Shanerredflag and BBNation like this.02-26-13 07:06 PMLike 2 - Lol, not yet. I just mean that at this stage, with this stock, the most we can do is plot where it's gone. I never meant to offend you. Probability, normalization, regression analysis, etc. have been my areas of expertise for some time. The horrible thing with this stock is that the manipulation is able to bring us well outside of what we might expect.
Personally, I love and look forward to your charts.
I must have you all wrong, I thought you sounded like you have had enough of all of this nonsense! I know, it is a pain when the stock continues to back up like this, but we didn't feel that way on the run to $ 18.32/shr when the shorts were screaming. I don't think of myself as a nerd but when I look back at my education and experience, I must admit, my strongest subject was Stats! I'm not actually telling people what to do with their money, I just want some of us to see the same thing and go "hmmnn?". We're probably a lot alike man. LOL
Let's see if we can make some money here and thanks again for your support!02-26-13 07:15 PMLike 3 - Thanks Charles!
I must have you all wrong, I thought you sounded like you have had enough of all of this nonsense! I know, it is a pain when the stock continues to back up like this, but we didn't feel that way on the run to $ 18.32/shr when the shorts were screaming. I don't think of myself as a nerd but when I look back at my education and experience, I must admit, my strongest subject was Stats! I'm not actually telling people what to do with their money, I just want some of us to see the same thing and go "hmmnn?". We're probably a lot alike man. LOL
Let's see if we can make some money here and thanks again for your support!
Yeah. I'm seriously tired of the stock manipulations.02-26-13 07:24 PMLike 0 - I think everyone is feeling a little testy with the state of the SP and the vacuum of solid data. BBRY will announce Year End results on Thursday, there will likely be little or no upside impact from the sales of Z10. (Consider the cost of bringing it to market, advertising, etc.) If we are lucky they may give a less cryptic hint at sales. RIM stopped giving forward guidance, don't expect them to change their position on that front. We were, however, warned to expect two bad quarters before the December report. December was "not as bad" as expected, let's hope that February will be as well. The real news won't come before June, no matter what a bunch of geeks/fans/true believers/(insert_personal_label_here) in a chat room might hope/wish/demand. We are all very small fish in a very big ocean, so Stay Calm/Carry on & enjoy the view!
Morgan - you just keep the charts coming.
Martin - you keep the insight coming to, its good to have our M8 defend his position, it will keep him sharp!02-26-13 07:26 PMLike 4 - Samsung tries knocking enterprise market with security arms called 'knox'.
I jsut like BB's simple comment back!
BlackBerry's response to Samsung's SAFE Knox for enterprise: 'We've been doing that since 1999'02-26-13 07:57 PMLike 0 - Samsung tries knocking enterprise market with security arms called 'knox'.
I jsut like BB's simple comment back!
BlackBerry's response to Samsung's SAFE Knox for enterprise: 'We've been doing that since 1999'02-26-13 08:18 PMLike 0 - Sorry to say this, but I wouldn't be bothered if the stock stayed low for another week.
I just filed my taxes and I want to be able to pick up some more cheap shares before they start their climb leading up to the earnings call.02-26-13 08:26 PMLike 0 - Samsung tries knocking enterprise market with security arms called 'knox'.
I jsut like BB's simple comment back!
BlackBerry's response to Samsung's SAFE Knox for enterprise: 'We've been doing that since 1999'Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.02-26-13 08:32 PMLike 2 - Today's DoD news confirmed that they got 470000 BBs and this is what I have been saying that big US goverment users is cream for BB and BB/Carriers need to get z10 and q10 out ASAP before further damage is done. That is just one department with almost half million BBs, add other goverments, businesses including banks,..22% of total BBs market share is still USA
Last edited by lcjr; 02-26-13 at 08:57 PM.
02-26-13 08:46 PMLike 4 - Good on BB to respond. Working on Bay St, I have noticed Samsung booths around the Toronto PATH (underground tunnel connecting office towers) where they are promoting this whole safe for business thing. The locations of the booths change daily and have to say that every time I have passed by, they were empty. However, I walked into a cell phone store and saw lots of business people checking out the Z10 and being impressed. I have also heard positive chatter in elevators and in the hallway at my place of work. Just wanted to note that.02-26-13 08:48 PMLike 0
- Hi,
I am new to this forum but I see some people here that are not associated with brokers and similar kind of people. After 10 years in stock market I can tell that TA doesn't work, fundamentals don't work either. Charting is fun to draw and it is possible to draw it in any way you want. I guess, most of traders wait for chartists to buy at turn overs, or on breakouts, etc. you name... Charts - it is yesterday's a hamburger which you through into garbage. Fundamentals is kind of of looking at the future. But nobody knows future, for sure.
My point is:
Market works on current data. How it works?
All economy is based on GDP. Look on wikipedia what it is about. It is based on three outputs. read yourself. Each company has to provide numbers on sales and materials, etc. every day to FED. RIM is one of them. FED calculates what GDP should be based on numbers from all companies around US and Canada and how much each company is valued based on sales. Every morning market makers adjust companies' stock prices. It explains gaps at market openings.Thus, stock price reflects current situation with sales.
Also, most of people are using debit and credit cards every day and all transactions go into one database. It give pretty good outlook on everyday state of economy.
In my opinion, BB is a good company. At least, it does something. Also, market needs "bubbles" to attract "loosers". Usually, when company is doing good then buy back own shares, kinda investing in itself. They hire trade houses to drive prices down easily paying them good fees.02-26-13 08:57 PMLike 0 - I believe all different types of ways of trading have their own merits. I'm a fundamental investor at heart, but I also use technicals to gauge volatility and whether or not it's "safe" to use a little margin.
It is what it is...I think to say that one way is better than the other is foolish.
In our case, I think BBRY is fundamentally sound...and if I had more time on my hands, I would use technicals as triggers to do more frequent trading. For the time being though I'm just holding heavy and holding long.
Technicals will help fundamental investors determine a better entry or exit price.On the other hand, fundamentals can help technicals play earnings appropriately.morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.02-26-13 09:01 PMLike 2 - I stopped at Future Shop to pick something up for my son and of coarse I couldn't pass the Z10 without playing with it. The salesperson said "We sold a lot the first week but now we are only selling a few a day." Sounds like initial demand is gone and everyone that was waiting to get one has gotten one. Selling a few a day to me means 3 or 4 units. Is this still enough to be a good thing? I will let someone else do the math. Maybe they are only selling a few a day because that is all they are getting in but that wasn't the first impression I got. It was only an afterthought. I did like the advertising.
In my small group of friends, co-workers, and acquaintances 9 of them have purchased a new phone this month, 8 Z10s and 1 sg3. I know that is only a small group of people and doesn't really paint the big picture but one thing surprised me. The biggest iphone supporter in my group of friends showed up the other day with his new Z10.02-26-13 09:02 PMLike 3 - Hi,
I am new to this forum but I see some people here that are not associated with brokers and similar kind of people. After 10 years in stock market I can tell that TA doesn't work, fundamentals don't work either. Charting is fun to draw and it is possible to draw it in any way you want. I guess, most of traders wait for chartists to buy at turn overs, or on breakouts, etc. you name... Charts - it is yesterday's a hamburger which you through into garbage. Fundamentals is kind of of looking at the future. But nobody knows future, for sure.
My point is:
Market works on current data. How it works?
All economy is based on GDP. Look on wikipedia what it is about. It is based on three outputs. read yourself. Each company has to provide numbers on sales and materials, etc. every day to FED. RIM is one of them. FED calculates what GDP should be based on numbers from all companies around US and Canada and how much each company is valued based on sales. Every morning market makers adjust companies' stock prices. It explains gaps at market openings.Thus, stock price reflects current situation with sales.
Also, most of people are using debit and credit cards every day and all transactions go into one database. It give pretty good outlook on everyday state of economy.
In my opinion, BB is a good company. At least, it does something. Also, market needs "bubbles" to attract "loosers". Usually, when company is doing good then buy back own shares, kinda investing in itself. They hire trade houses to drive prices down easily paying them good fees.DragonFlyer likes this.02-26-13 09:04 PMLike 1
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