[Charles Martin1]

You know I was sure we'll never see 13s again but here we are. Problem is, there just aren't any buyers right now since everyone is waiting for the news. In the meantime shorts are having a field day with this. $11s wouldn't surprise me.

I'm resisting the urge to buy more because I believe it will go lower before earnings.

[plane6065]

News isn't driving this stock, nor do the fundamentals apply...this is entirely manipulation.

Some big investors HAVE TO drive this stock down. If the earnings results are stellar, then they will have no other opportunities.

That is true. Lots of bs floating out there by big investors. Jim Cramer did this interview 2 years ago and he talked about stock mantipulation. Ironically, he used RIM as an example.

I am surprise no wonder talks about unstable European and US economy. Until thoughts things are resolve it's here will be a lot of red . I hope I am wrong...

[nquyen]

Lots of worry with Europe and US deficit. Another deadline looming March 1st. And then samsung's announcement with new S4 and their challenge to the business core. Lets not also forget all big stock mantipulators, and bears.yikes! BB needs some solid news. I don't think there is even a solid US launch. That is crazy ! Yes, I know BB has a small market share there but they are still very important. No solid date for Q10 . Come on BB, lets keep moving !

I'll maybe buy more stocks on the 1st or 2nd, should be a great day for buyers

[plane6065]

I'll maybe buy more stocks on the 1st or 2nd, should be a great day for buyers

I don't have a great memory but I believe prior to Jan 1st fiscal a lot of stocks tanked until after jan 1st. This time maybe different because of Europe, and whether the democrats and republicans can solve the deficit problem (good luck). If things can be solve partially the market will take off. Dang 90% of my watch list are down. Good luck !

[Charles Martin1]

I don't have a great memory but I believe prior to Jan 1st fiscal a lot of stocks tanked until after jan 1st. This time maybe different because of Europe, and whether the democrats and republicans can solve the deficit problem (good luck). If things can be solve partially the market will take off. Dang 90% of my watch list are down. Good luck !

Nah, that only makes a 1-2% difference. With this stock nobody cares about that

[Charles Martin1]

I'm in for the 400% hike

[plane6065]

Nah, that only makes a 1-2% difference. With this stock nobody cares about that

Ask Jim Cramer, he used RIM in his explanation on stock manipulation.

[BBNation]

the drop isnt bad, look at all the markets today. most of them all lost 2-3% during the course of the day (mostly at 1pm onwards), so BBRY was really just following this trend. Overall, it was a decent day, and it could drift upwards through the rest of the week.

I disgree. today's news should have moved it to 5%, It was going up like crazy when the market was crashing before the launch..that is what got me. It won;t go down no matter what..I think it went up almsot 7 sessions in a row so today should have been solid green..if drops below $13 we are screwed TEMPORARILY.

[BBNation]

End of the day we retailers are losers, any bear or bull news does nothing until big boys starts buying or selling..In the past bear news did not bring it down and now any bull news does nothing.
Today's news supposed to be super bull when the ceo of company saying we are doing well and upped the producion. I mean what else he can say..just say the numbers. Even after that bears will say that no more BIS fees, marketin cost, blah blah...
Based up last few weeks this thing will not move up no matter what and who says it until real black and white earning comes out. Unfortunately, Prem Vasta can not buy anymore due to ownership limitation unless he gets proxy buyer or tell friends to buy it.
Unfortunately we gonna have to wait until earning unless shorts recover within next 2-3 weeks..The short interest supposed to relesae tonight but it did not..may be tomorrow..that will be interesting.

this might move it up a bit..
Imagine GM running BES 10 manage all cars custom info.
http://www.engadget.com/2013/02/25/att-lte-gm/

[Andrew4life]

...........

Unfortunately we gonna have to wait until earning unless shorts recover within next 2-3 weeks..The short interest supposed to relesae tonight but it did not..may be tomorrow..that will be interesting.

The short interest isn't to be released till Wednesday. I don't know why you keep thinking it's today.

[BBNation]

Here is interview from Indian director...5000k is about $100.
One thing to learn here is that Whatsapp does not make BBM less important due to feature diffrences
We don't want to be in Rs 5,000 - Rs 7,000 market, says BlackBerry India MD Sunil Dutt - The Economic Times

[BBNation]

The short interest isn't to be released till Wednesday. I don't know why you keep thinking it's today.

I thought it was 10 das after cutover feb 15th..damm..2 more days..

[doctor gonzo]

Not sure if it means anything but somebody bought 500,000 shares at 13.10 in after hours at 4:02.

[plane6065]

Anyone hear about how the India launch went? Heard some people commenting on the price ? Hopefully everything else was ok.dont want to hear any news story on this .

[bigbbrybeliever]

from all accounts by now i think it is safe to say that Z10 has passed the test of is this phone a viable product.
perhaps not for all legacy BB users and perhaps not for app addicts, but it leaves enough room for an entirely new following.
so then the next problem is how do you finance the roll out?
Wall Street is awash in money so if a company like BB needs money to finance the launch and roll out the money will be there.
the only thing is money does not come free, so the question is what will be the price?
Issue shares? Shorters are helping out the financiers with knocking down the price
Loan? Low interest rates, so that would be an option
Take over? Shorters are helping out any potential buyers for a take over at a bargain

Who knows what will be next, but it is unlikely for BB to fail because the production falls behind the sales,
this problem will get solved one way or another............

I think people are worrying too much about the possible bottleneck of cash flow. Let us take a close look at this issue.
At the end of last Q, the company has 2.6 sh billion cash in hand and 500 million revolving credit line (never used). With successful selling of the BB10 phone, they can easily go to any bank to ask additional 1 billion revolving credit line using the receivable as collateral. This will bring the total cash + credit lines up to 4.1 billion. Let us further assume that 1 billion cash is required in the balance to meet some temporary transactions. This will give the usable working capital of 3.1 billion. The average capital recycling time period is 90 day (one quarter). If we use $250/phone as the manufacturing cost, then with 3.1 billion working capital, it can provide 12.4 million phones of inventory in the coming quarter.
At the end of the first quarter, the usable working capital will increase from 3.1 billion to 3.1 + $200 X 12.4/1000 = 5.58 billion, here, the $200 is the net profit / phone sold in the previous quarter. So in the second quarter, the 5.58 billion working capital can produce 22.3 million phone inventories for sale. For the same lines of calculation, In 3rd and 4th Q, the available working capital will produce 40 and 72.32 million phone inventories for sale, respectively.
In summary, the maximum manageable working capital in one year can produce (and sell) 147 million phones which will bring the company roughly 29.4 billion profit before tax. With 29% of tax rate, the net profit will be 20.3 billion or EP = $31.22 / year.
I don’t think I need to go further for the second year because at that time, just like Apple, Blackberry will have too much cash in hand already.
P.S. If Blackberry has working capital problem, it means that it will sell more than 147 million phones / year, then be it. As a shareholder, I will be very happy for such problem because in this case, the share price already above $310 and many people in this board made enough money to retire.

Clarification: Here, I just tried to answer some people's worry that the company does not have enough working capital to keep the demand, i.e., from pure working capital aspect, Blackberry should be able to provide 147 million phones / year (but I didn't say it could sell so many phone. LOL)

[Nindia]

^^ I think 147 million phones per year is just SLIGHTLY optimistic, no?

Knock the "1" off the front of that and I would be extremely happy.

Lets keep it real.

[Superfly_FR]

I want to raise ma position, with a long-term vision ($40 range or more target), meaning I won't be hunting the lows (I have no real time trade account, I must play blind, as many rookies here).
In that spirit I must be very conservative and accept to buy a little more expensive than I probably could, but don't want to miss the opportunity.

Here's my morning order (validity: trading day):

Nasdaq : 100 BBRY at/under 13 US$
And
Nasdaq : 150 BBRY at/under 12 US$ (I don't believe this one will be fired, but in case ...)

I currently own 150 shares avg $10.5
If order #1 is fired I'm average $11.5
If order #2 is fired I'm average $11.68

As you can see, it's tiny amounts and please note it's not an advice to do the same.
But your thoughts are very welcome.

[bigbbrybeliever]

^^ I think 147 million phones per year is just SLIGHTLY optimistic, no?

Knock the "1" off the front of that and I would've be extremely happy.

Lets keep it real.

I think you missed the point of my post. I didn't say that Blackberry CAN SELL 147 million phone / year. I just tried to answer some people's worry that the company does not have enough working capital to keep the demand, i.e., from pure working capital aspect, Blackberry should be able to provide 147 million phones / year (but I didn't say it could sell so many phone. LOL)

[Kid Vibe]

When I wake up tomorrow, I better see $25. Goodnight!

[AlexejKir]

We are still doing reasonably well in my opinion, only in February, the price tried 4 times to break 13$ support, yes we are under 50dma however we are still sitting above the uptrend support line (as long as we are above, 50dma might not have such a strong bearish effect) and so far every time bears tried to take it below, they failed or picked up massively to keep it above. Thats a huge advantage for us and we need to keep in mind that BBRY is not stock on its own and it is influenced by overall market, saying that, we finished reasonably well yesterday.

[greggebhardt]

BBRY is not going to do anything till it hits the USA market. It will continue to "bump along the bottom" and we do not know how low it can get. No fancy charts can change this fact! There is no possible good news until then.

There are no guarantees when it does introduce in the USA. Much depends on the OS being fixed and just as important is that they have enough stock!

[DragonFlyer]

PermataBank, BlackBerry and Monitise Announce Commercial Pilot Launch of BBM Money | Benzinga
Cool lets have BBM money here. I will use BBM money to buy BB shares.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/per...-02-26-3173111

[DragonFlyer]

End of the day we retailers are losers, any bear or bull news does nothing until big boys starts buying or selling..In the past bear news did not bring it down and now any bull news does nothing.
Today's news supposed to be super bull when the ceo of company saying we are doing well and upped the producion. I mean what else he can say..just say the numbers. Even after that bears will say that no more BIS fees, marketin cost, blah blah...
Based up last few weeks this thing will not move up no matter what and who says it until real black and white earning comes out. Unfortunately, Prem Vasta can not buy anymore due to ownership limitation unless he gets proxy buyer or tell friends to buy it.
Unfortunately we gonna have to wait until earning unless shorts recover within next 2-3 weeks..The short interest supposed to relesae tonight but it did not..may be tomorrow..that will be interesting.

this might move it up a bit..
Imagine GM running BES 10 manage all cars custom info.
AT&T LTE coming to GM's 2015 fleet

30 Ways QNX Touches Your Life

[Charles Martin1]

Not bad in premarket today...I'm partial to green

[peter9477]

I think you missed the point of my post. I didn't say that Blackberry CAN SELL 147 million phone / year. I just tried to answer some people's worry that the company does not have enough working capital to keep the demand, i.e., from pure working capital aspect, Blackberry should be able to provide 147 million phones / year (but I didn't say it could sell so many phone. LOL)

It's the phrasing that threw him off probably. I'd have put it as "the only way BlackBerry will have a working capital problem is if they're having to build 147 million phones a year"... and as you said, that's a "problem" any shareholder would be happy for them ever to have. :-)

Thanks for the analysis. I agree that cash is NOT going to be a big problem here.