[Charles Martin1]

^thanks for all the charts and analysis morgan.

its tough because the chart indicators say this can be dragged down further by bears, but my experience with the device screams that this is far under value and the price will rocket up once we get some official news or figures. The lack of this device in the USA is i believe the real reason why analysts believe it is flopping. Personally, i think it is one of the slickest phones on the market, especially for a first-gen

also, remember that some of the bears will become bulls when the money suits them. We could see a very rapid rally upwards now that there is quite some headroom between the current price and the moving adverages

It's quite possible, especially with the RSI where it is now, that BBRY could fall to $10 before the earnings release and then to $8 post ER. I don't mean to sound so negative but despite our excitement, these are likely the most worrisome days for the company.

I am actually hoping to see something in the range of 3 million Z10s sold by the end of February. In fact, I don't believe it's outrageous to expect it, especially if they can produce 2 million per month. A lot of people seem to forget that there is a lot of corporate potential and I have yet to read any analysis that adequately incorporates this.

[Bbnivende]

We need a post " I support BBRY and I do not buy shares" . 99.9999 % of BB owners are concerned about the viability of the the platform. Buyers of the Z10 have made in investment - long. In Canada - probably for three years. It doesn't do BBRY any good long term to release half baked goods to the USA market.

[Bbnivende]

It's quite possible, especially with the RSI where it is now, that BBRY could fall to $10 before the earnings release and then to $8 post ER. I don't mean to sound so negative but despite our excitement, these are likely the most worrisome days for the company.

I am actually hoping to see something in the range of 3 million Z10s sold by the end of February. In fact, I don't believe it's outrageous to expect it, especially if they can produce 2 million per month. A lot of people seem to forget that there is a lot of corporate potential and I have yet to read any analysis that adequately incorporates this.

Yes ... if February was December and they had adequate supplies and did in fact launch in the USA and had a big push in China ... but it isn't and they didn't.

[Charles Martin1]

His job isn't pushing up the stock in the short term, it is running the company. He has already shown that he can execute. Examples include the CORE program, keeping sales of OS7 up even though it is totally outclassed, and delaying BlackBerry 10 to make sure that it was ready to avoid a PlayBook fiasco.

Just show some patience.

Posted via CB10

He has a lot of jobs. Part of that is to manage, where possible, public perception that could erode buyer confidence. This indirectly influences stock price and, for sure, isn't an immediate priority but the bombardment of negative stories does have to be addressed.

[morganplus8]

^thanks for all the charts and analysis morgan.

its tough because the chart indicators say this can be dragged down further by bears, but my experience with the device screams that this is far under value and the price will rocket up once we get some official news or figures. The lack of this device in the USA is i believe the real reason why analysts believe it is flopping. Personally, i think it is one of the slickest phones on the market, especially for a first-gen

also, remember that some of the bears will become bulls when the money suits them. We could see a very rapid rally upwards now that there is quite some headroom between the current price and the moving adverages

Hi Luke!

I agree with you, BB has a very difficult logistics problem here, it's not their fault but a difficult one to ressolve. It costs them $ 250/phone to build inventory, they may have ordered 1 million phones at a $ 250 million dollar commitment. Now, we see that 1 million phones are not enough to spread over as many countries as BB has in the past month. Thus leaving many without inventory. This problem is a nice one to have but BB needs to sell as many of these phones as possible to get the $ 450/phone revenue going. It's all about cash flow and they are spending money on advertising and product while trying to understand demand for their new line of phones. Then there is the biggest problem, they need to understand demand for two phones by the middle of March. Good luck with that! If they feel that Q10 will out sell Z10 by 3 to 1, they need a $ 750 million dollar commitment for Q10 alone. So you can see, they are out selling on Z10, ordering more, and, trying to make a call on the Z10 versus the Q10 for the March launch period. Who would want that job? They are literally trying to manage well over a billion in inventory for two launches in March.

Heins said to CNBC that he has "a challenge to his logistics staff to make enough phones for their needs". He didn't tell them he was personally responsible for demand, he did point out that they needed a plan in place and thought he had one with logistcs. We'll see in the weeks ahead.

To ask Heins to gear up for two phones and meet demand, plus a huge advertising campaign, and do it ll with their cash on hand is quite a tall order!!! We are talking about commiting billions on these two phones alone.

As for the stock, you are right, the chart is intact here, but it doesn't look good. I don't think we can maintain the rate of climb in the stock without some news from BB. They would have to confirm sales to some extent in order for us to rally hard from here and I'm not sure they will. As for an additional push, it can come from a partnership agreement at any moment thus all this concern is for not.

[Charles Martin1]

Yes ... if February was December and they had adequate supplies and did in fact launch in the USA and had a big push in China ... but it isn't and they didn't.

I don't think that you are adequately considering the scale of their release and the absolute absurdity of the suggestions that sales could be as low as 300,000. There are corporate and public sales. All of the so called checks have focused entirely on store sales for individuals.

If it turns out that sales are indeed only between 300,000 and 500,000 then I will be selling the entirety of my BBRY and BB holdings. Surely, that will not be the case.

[s0be]

I Just checked bestbuy.ca and thesource.ca and both are sold out on all models for all Carriers. At thesource, i changed to 200km of Vancouver and still says sold out. In my head, i tell myself its impossible that they have stock shortage. They had way too much time for planning and production. I think the demand is extremely high...Way higher than what was anticipated given how stable the OS is. BB10 is becoming the next cool thing, i truly believe that. With gaming with a control pad hooked up with the hdmi stand on the horizon, new bb10 playbook, BBm voice/video, 4 more phones coming including a possible 4" inch + phone, i think things are looking in BBRY's favor, and we will all be surprised at the next ER. I personally think we will sell more than 1 million for the Feb Quarter for sure.
Just to add to this: im the living proof of this trend, coming from an iphone 4s, the z10 is just in another league...

[_dimi_]

Hi Luke!

I agree with you, BB has a very difficult logistics problem here, it's not their fault but a difficult one to ressolve. It costs them $ 250/phone to build inventory, they may have ordered 1 million phones at a $ 250 million dollar commitment. Now, we see that 1 million phones are not enough to spread over as many countries as BB has in the past month. Thus leaving many without inventory. This problem is a nice one to have but BB needs to sell as many of these phones as possible to get the $ 450/phone revenue going. It's all about cash flow and they are spending money on advertising and product while trying to understand demand for their new line of phones. Then there is the biggest problem, they need to understand demand for two phones by the middle of March. Good luck with that! If they feel that Q10 will out sell Z10 by 3 to 1, they need a $ 750 million dollar commitment for Q10 alone. So you can see, they are out selling on Z10, ordering more, and, trying to make a call on the Z10 versus the Q10 for the March launch period. Who would want that job? They are literally trying to manage well over a billion in inventory for two launches in March.

Heins said to CNBC that he has "a challenge to his logistics staff to make enough phones for their needs". He didn't tell them he was personally responsible for demand, he did point out that they needed a plan in place and thought he had one with logistcs. We'll see in the weeks ahead.

To ask Heins to gear up for two phones and meet demand, plus a huge advertising campaign, and do it ll with their cash on hand is quite a tall order!!! We are talking about commiting billions on these two phones alone.

As for the stock, you are right, the chart is intact here, but it doesn't look good. I don't think we can maintain the rate of climb in the stock without some news from BB. They would have to confirm sales to some extent in order for us to rally hard from here and I'm not sure they will. As for an additional push, it can come from a partnership agreement at any moment thus all this concern is for not.

Hi Morganplus8,

Not sure if this changes anything, but Heins said he believed the Z10 would outsell Q10 by 3:1.

Also, could it be that they might ramp up production in Q1 of their new fiscal year? Heins stated that their cash on hand would not drop below 2 billion in Q4.. but could they allow this in Q1 and would it be a wise move or rather irresponsible? Would this enable them to build more Z10s, let their cash drop below 2 billion, and eventually generate income from those handsets before Q2 starts?

PS: thanks for the chart updates!

[OMGitworks]

I Just checked bestbuy.ca and thesource.ca and both are sold out on all models for all Carriers. At thesource, i changed to 200km of Vancouver and still says sold out. In my head, i tell myself its impossible that they have stock shortage. They had way too much time for planning and production. I think the demand is extremely high...Way higher than what was anticipated given how stable the OS is. BB10 is becoming the next cool thing, i truly believe that. With gaming with a control pad hooked up with the hdmi stand on the horizon, new bb10 playbook, BBm voice/video, 4 more phones coming including a possible 4" inch + phone, i think things are looking in BBRY's favor, and we will all be surprised at the next ER. I personally think we will sell more than 1 million for the Feb Quarter for sure.
Just to add to this: im the living proof of this trend, coming from an iphone 4s, the z10 is just in another league...

I hope you are right! I expect 750k-1M but have no basis for that, just guessing. 300,000 would be a disaster and can't be true. I have been waiting since Aug to upgrade so I am waiting on the Verizon US launch and hope they have at least 1 phone left....

[_dimi_]

Also, is there any difference between BBRY and BB.TO when doing technical analysis? I understand it could come down to cents when looking at support lines etc.. and since there has been some volatility in the currency markets lately (incl. CAD/USD) it could be worth looking at?

[morganplus8]

Hi Morganplus8,

Not sure if this changes anything, but Heins said he believed the Z10 would outsell Q10 by 3:1.

Also, could it be that they might ramp up production in Q1 of their new fiscal year? Heins stated that their cash on hand would not drop below 2 billion in Q4.. but could they allow this in Q1 and would it be a wise move or rather irresponsible? Would this enable them to build more Z10s, let their cash drop below 2 billion, and eventually generate income from those handsets before Q2 starts?

PS: thanks for the chart updates!

Do you have a link to that?

Wow! The US media have been all over Heins for not bringing a qwerty board out first. They believe that BB's only hope is to launch BB 10 on a qwerty and sell it to BB fans. They also felt that an all touch would fail and that it wouldn't convert i Phone and Android users to BB. So this would be a surprise indeed. I thought I read the opposite, that BB would be selling 3 qwerty boards to every Z10 touch. Oops if I'm wrong there.

The same problem exists whether they sell a key board versus a touch, they need to commit to a huge amount of inventory up front, the kind of commitment that might destroy much of their cash hoard. Once the revenues start to come in, their cash position would only get stronger in later quarters. I just tried to find a Z10 for sale anywhere and there isn't one available via online order or pickup, hard to believe this actually!

As for the charts, its nice to see a picture of where we have been. Keeps us all focused on what we can expect in the weeks ahead. I would like to hear something from the company soon though, I prefer news to short term trading any day! GL

[fedakd]

Based on some of the initial footwork/analysis I've completed, I expect 1 million sold at the low end of the range. Shipped units will be substantially higher. I have a gut feeling Q4 is the wake-up call for the shorts.

I hope you are right! I expect 750k-1M but have no basis for that, just guessing. 300,000 would be a disaster and can't be true. I have been waiting since Aug to upgrade so I am waiting on the Verizon US launch and hope they have at least 1 phone left....

[s0be]

I hope you are right! I expect 750k-1M but have no basis for that, just guessing. 300,000 would be a disaster and can't be true. I have been waiting since Aug to upgrade so I am waiting on the Verizon US launch and hope they have at least 1 phone left....

That's the thing that doesn't make sense to me, if they sell 300k only then how the **** are they out of stock ??

[morganplus8]

Also, is there any difference between BBRY and BB.TO when doing technical analysis? I understand it could come down to cents when looking at support lines etc.. and since there has been some volatility in the currency markets lately (incl. CAD/USD) it could be worth looking at?

There is a huge difference in TA with the two exchanges, the Toronto Exchange gives you CDN dollar high/low/close figures based upon the currency exchange each day. The USA price is a pure play H/L/C and is therefore free of currency vulgarities. Imagine if you will, the stock in the US goes up $ 1.00/shr/day and the CDN counterpart goes up a dollar per day too, but the CDN currency goes up too,( i.e., the CDN dollar gains on the US). If the CDN dollar gained 1% per day, the stock price would go up by 1% less than the US counterpart, this difference, over time, would make the CDN chart weaker than the US chart and that has nothing to do with the performance of the stock itself. The thing to do is to look at both trades, which one has the most volume? The one with the most volume is the one that leads the trade, i.e., it sets the price for the other exchange. And so the CDN price gets its que from the current US price of the stock times the exchange rate at that very moment. They track each other perfectly. This is why the CDN chart for this week is so much better looking than the US chart for BB, the CDN dollar has fallen out of bed making the exchange rate to price the CDN stock that much higher. On Friday the US price dropped $ .69/shr but in Canada it only dropped by $ .62/shr because the CDN dollar was down over 1/2 cent that day. This has been happening all week and it makes the CDN chart much more bullish then the US chart. But we dismiss it due to currency problems and only look at the US chart.

Example: I hold all of my investments in US dollars, the stock could remain even for the week but the fact that the CDN dollar fell by 2% made my account go up by 2% in CDN dollar value. 2% on a million is $ 20,000 in my pocket based on the currency move alone.

[_dimi_]

Do you have a link to that?

Wow! The US media have been all over Heins for not bringing a qwerty board out first. They believe that BB's only hope is to launch BB 10 on a qwerty and sell it to BB fans. They also felt that an all touch would fail and that it wouldn't convert i Phone and Android users to BB. So this would be a surprise indeed. I thought I read the opposite, that BB would be selling 3 qwerty boards to every Z10 touch. Oops if I'm wrong there.

The same problem exists whether they sell a key board versus a touch, they need to commit to a huge amount of inventory up front, the kind of commitment that might destroy much of their cash hoard. Once the revenues start to come in, their cash position would only get stronger in later quarters. I just tried to find a Z10 for sale anywhere and there isn't one available via online order or pickup, hard to believe this actually!

As for the charts, its nice to see a picture of where we have been. Keeps us all focused on what we can expect in the weeks ahead. I would like to hear something from the company soon though, I prefer news to short term trading any day! GL

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...phones-758844/

Let's not forget they are still producing BB7s hopefully they increase their cash facility or find some alternative funding

[_dimi_]

Many thanks for the detailed reply, Morganplus8!

[fedakd]

Also doesn't make sense when you consider BlackBerry was producing 500,000 units prior to December, then ramped up production to the millions after that. ;-)

This "quiet period" we are under is going to make those shorting the stock squirm . No news getting out of BlackBerry with respect to shipments / sales. I love it, the shorts don't. That is one of the reasons they've been issuing false rumours / estimates. They want BlackBerry to come out with numbers. They won't before earnings. They can't. This is going to be quite interesting.

That's the thing that doesn't make sense to me, if they sell 300k only then how the **** are they out of stock ??

[s0be]

Also doesn't make sense when you consider BlackBerry was producing 500,000 units prior to December, then ramped up production to the millions after that. ;-)

This "quiet period" we are under is going to make those shorting the stock squirm . No news getting out of BlackBerry with respect to shipments / sales. I love it, the shorts don't. That is one of the reasons they've been issuing false rumours / estimates. They want BlackBerry to come out with numbers. They won't before earnings. They can't. This is going to be quite interesting.

Indeed... by the way nice avatar, i would add QNX logo on the other bar

[Andrew4life]

I think they are definitely holding back stock for the US release.

In the world of retail, the optimal point you want to be at is somewhere in the 75% supply level. 75% of the time you have stock, the other 25% of the time you are sold out. This adds a sense of urgency to buy it when you buy it in stock, instead of people just always seeing it available in store. It's called a buying frenzy.
Of course you don't want to have a 20% supply level, because then most of the time you don't have a phone to sell and people get frustrated. You also don't want a 110% supply level because it means you've got stock that isn't moving and that will depreciate, but also you lose the "buying frenzy" because there is no urgency to buy it if it's always in stock.
I think they have a fairly good supply level. Most places are reporting high demand with sellouts every few days.
I would also expect the BB10 to sell in excess of 1 Million phones for the quarter ending March 1st.

SELL SELL SELL!! Of course I mean, carriers and retail should sell more phones!
BUY BUY BUY! Of course I mean we should all go out and pick up a new Z10!
HOLD HOLD HOLD! Of course I mean, hold on to your horses because we're in for a ride!!

[morganplus8]

Here is a definition of the chart pattern that I have been telling you about. You will get the idea here, we are in for a big move in the days ahead and let's hope it is a resumption of the rally!!





That should keep you busy until the market opens on Monday!

[Zarpan]

It's quite possible, especially with the RSI where it is now, that BBRY could fall to $10 before the earnings release and then to $8 post ER. I don't mean to sound so negative but despite our excitement, these are likely the most worrisome days for the company.

I am actually hoping to see something in the range of 3 million Z10s sold by the end of February. In fact, I don't believe it's outrageous to expect it, especially if they can produce 2 million per month. A lot of people seem to forget that there is a lot of corporate potential and I have yet to read any analysis that adequately incorporates this.

I think you need to temper your expectations based on where the Z10 has been launched so far. Sales of 3 million Z10s is pretty much impossible by the end of February. The countries (UK, Canada, UAE) where the product has been available for most/all of February sell about 4 million smartphones combined per month.

[Charles Martin1]

Also doesn't make sense when you consider BlackBerry was producing 500,000 units prior to December, then ramped up production to the millions after that. ;-)

This "quiet period" we are under is going to make those shorting the stock squirm . No news getting out of BlackBerry with respect to shipments / sales. I love it, the shorts don't. That is one of the reasons they've been issuing false rumours / estimates. They want BlackBerry to come out with numbers. They won't before earnings. They can't. This is going to be quite interesting.

I hope that they bring the hammer down hard on those short MFs!

[Charles Martin1]

I think you need to temper your expectations based on where the Z10 has been launched so far. Sales of 3 million Z10s is pretty much impossible by the end of February. The countries (UK, Canada, UAE) where the product has been available for most/all of February sell about 4 million smartphones combined per month.

Just trying to be positive...

[Bbnivende]

I think you need to temper your expectations based on where the Z10 has been launched so far. Sales of 3 million Z10s is pretty much impossible by the end of February. The countries (UK, Canada, UAE) where the product has been available for most/all of February sell about 4 million smartphones combined per month.

The phones were not for sale for a whole month - especially in the UAE . But would you say 15 % of all new sales to be a reasonable expectation ?

[VeGiTo]

I have said this before, but IF launch sales numbers are constrained by inventory shortages, then Thor should resign. I know that sounds harsh, but let's face it, BBRY's future, as we know it (not saying it would go under) is/was all hinged on BB10. They had plenty of cash on hand to crank out supply. They are basically doubling down on BBRY with BB10. If they hamstrung themselves by not believing enough in BB10 to spend as much of their cash on hand to ensure adequate supply, and meet as much demand as they could have predicted in their wildest dreams, they should resign. This wasn't the Play Book. If they don't believe in themselves, why should we and why should Wall St? They spent a ton of $$ to launch this, the US launch was delayed (for whatever reason you might think) and now if supply is going to restrict sales in a very critical time, for me, that is unforgivable. CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or they are intentionally restricting supply, neither of which seeks like a very solid business plan. Obviously others may feel otherwise.

No, those are not the only 2 possibilities. The 3rd possibility is that they produced plenty of Z10, more than enough to meet the top-end of their estimate, and still could not meet demand because Z10 IS SELLING BEYOND EVEN THEIR WILDEST DREAMS. Suggesting that Thor should resign because of a blow-out success would be the worst idea I've ever heard.