[lcjr]

This could be us man!!! Stay strong!!!!

[Kid Vibe]

Or this...

[Sqoon]

Or this...

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m0...ty02o1_500.gif

Sorry, I can't hear you, what was that?


Posted via CB10

[BThunderW]

The price of options is determined by many factors (known as the Greeks). Due to the fact that the price of BBRY has been swinging wildly last few months, options carry a pretty steep price premium. Even LEAPs carry a pretty high price now but they're slightly dropping too. If the price continues to stay relatively stable, April calls will really come down in price and should make for easy money assuming a favorable ER.

In the end I plan to play a straddle 1 or 2 days before ER (buy ITM calls/puts) as I expect the price to move A LOT, I just can't predict the direction. I will use my common to hedge, perhaps 1/2 position just in case.

BThunderW, I appreciate your input at all times. I need to understand what you just said? Meaning, I'm still not educated on "calls" even though I researched it. What is your "personal" opinion or recommendation on people wanting to take advantage on the current dips and peaks??? Your insight is most appreciated...

[Alexander Tran]

"Ditto.
In Canada, my friend works at one of the big 3 carriers.
He said that they are still behind. His store is selling between 70 - 110 per week. When the phones arrives, they need to call those on the waiting list. I asked him why doesn't your boss order 500. He said that they would order 200 ... and 50 or 60 would arrive.

He mentioned that one business ordered 75 of them ( his best 1 customer sale so far )"

Source: Comments section Major U.K. Outlets Hike BlackBerry Z10 Price Above iPhone 5, Black Market Thriving - Seeking Alpha

[jsmall999]

Having the same problem here, our Telus reseller can't get us phones. They order 200 and get 30

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

I have said this before, but IF launch sales numbers are constrained by inventory shortages, then Thor should resign. I know that sounds harsh, but let's face it, BBRY's future, as we know it (not saying it would go under) is/was all hinged on BB10. They had plenty of cash on hand to crank out supply. They are basically doubling down on BBRY with BB10. If they hamstrung themselves by not believing enough in BB10 to spend as much of their cash on hand to ensure adequate supply, and meet as much demand as they could have predicted in their wildest dreams, they should resign. This wasn't the Play Book. If they don't believe in themselves, why should we and why should Wall St? They spent a ton of $$ to launch this, the US launch was delayed (for whatever reason you might think) and now if supply is going to restrict sales in a very critical time, for me, that is unforgivable. CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or they are intentionally restricting supply, neither of which seeks like a very solid business plan. Obviously others may feel otherwise.

[BThunderW]

I disagree. While it's obvious that Thor & Co underestimated the demand, unlike Apple they're launching worldwide pretty much in a month. Not only they have to stuff initial inventory into launch areas, they have to supply existing ones. I hardly see this as a failure. Additionally, the delay might be entirely out of Thor's hands. Problems at the factory, shipping issues, **** even a strike at a factory would cause a huge delay. Last I heard Blackberry was launching a new factory to try to keep up with the demand, it probably hasn't come online yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong but pretty much every Apple product has sold out on launch and it was a very long time before new stock arrived, how is this different? Nobody was calling for Steve Jobs resignation because of massive backorders.

I have said this before, but IF launch sales numbers are constrained by inventory shortages, then Thor should resign. I know that sounds harsh, but let's face it, BBRY's future, as we know it (not saying it would go under) is/was all hinged on BB10. They had plenty of cash on hand to crank out supply. They are basically doubling down on BBRY with BB10. If they hamstrung themselves by not believing enough in BB10 to spend as much of their cash on hand to ensure adequate supply, and meet as much demand as they could have predicted in their wildest dreams, they should resign. This wasn't the Play Book. If they don't believe in themselves, why should we and why should Wall St? They spent a ton of $$ to launch this, the US launch was delayed (for whatever reason you might think) and now if supply is going to restrict sales in a very critical time, for me, that is unforgivable. CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or they are intentionally restricting supply, neither of which seeks like a very solid business plan. Obviously others may feel otherwise.

[silversun10]

"CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or "

yes we don't want to mislead CNBC, that is their job; lol

[Shanerredflag]

^^^Yes^^^so is the parking lot in Waterloo still full all night and weekends...my thinking is they are doing everything possible to be successful.

Posted via CB10

[Alexander Tran]

I have said this before, but IF launch sales numbers are constrained by inventory shortages, then Thor should resign. I know that sounds harsh, but let's face it, BBRY's future, as we know it (not saying it would go under) is/was all hinged on BB10. They had plenty of cash on hand to crank out supply. They are basically doubling down on BBRY with BB10. If they hamstrung themselves by not believing enough in BB10 to spend as much of their cash on hand to ensure adequate supply, and meet as much demand as they could have predicted in their wildest dreams, they should resign. This wasn't the Play Book. If they don't believe in themselves, why should we and why should Wall St? They spent a ton of $$ to launch this, the US launch was delayed (for whatever reason you might think) and now if supply is going to restrict sales in a very critical time, for me, that is unforgivable. CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or they are intentionally restricting supply, neither of which seeks like a very solid business plan. Obviously others may feel otherwise.

Honestly, it also depends on the carriers as they choose how many units they want to carry. Telus for example, chooses to have 7 phones for launch day, none of which is Thor's fault. While you see great relationships with Rogers and Bell where they are meeting supply and demand quite well with 30-40 units every few days. Some other sources are indicating even greater shipments to as high as 70 units.

You also got to understand that the level of demand highly exceeded expectations as indicated from the # of pre-orders as well as sell outs. It's difficult to randomly double production in a matter of days. In addition, keep in mind that if they were to overproduce, they would get murdered by inventory holding costs. RIMM cant afford to make this kind of mistake as their cash balance is already low enough. Also this will give the Bears another reason to talk **** by bringing up the fact that we're failing to sell out and that we don't have enough demand relative to supply.

This is from an Accountant's point of view and I honestly think that Blackberry executing properly.

[Alexander Tran]

^^^Yes^^^so is the parking lot in Waterloo still full all night and weekends...my thinking is they are doing everything possible to be successful.

Posted via CB10

I am in Waterloo and it's reading week here, so all students are gone. I can take a photo and give you guys an update later today

[Shanerredflag]

Cool...

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

I wonder whether Morgan can contribute technical review about what it was going on today?

Sure, I'll give you several charts on what is going on here.

First chart is from stockwatch.com and its for 1 year:

When you look at the 1 year chart you can appreciate what has been happening lately, that's some volatility lately. Not many charts look like this one. Within those lines we are battling with the bears. Note how the volume is pulling back here. We are back to early January volume levels again. I'll talk about volume later though.

Second chart is a closeup:

The next chart is a closeup of our trading minus the close for Friday, this occured at 3:30 PM/ 32.2 million shares and a low on that chart of $ 13.23/shr. This is a beautiful chart if we had bounced off this uptrend line and closed around $ 13.55/shr, BUT we didn't. Note how orderly the sell-off has been, other than a couple of panic drops, this sell-off has been placed inside a channel of its own and driven down methodically.

The final chart is is the new pattern that is forming:


Here you will see the all important moment of decision between the bears and the bulls. We have a Wedge formation here that is about to get resolved soon. We connect the three lows which are higher highs, with the last two highs which are lower highs and we get this battle of the two sides. The 5-dma has been the indicator to follow in all of this and had you bought and sold when it gets breached, you would be in a great spot today. The same can be said for the channel that started at the end of Sept, it was a great indicator of where we could buy/sell the stock.

So what happened and where are we now?
Things have changed, we can no longer follow this channel and expect things to go our way. We are now well below the 50-dma, the bears took that away, we are tracking below the 5-dma, they own that too, and we are outside the channel and not looking to get back in anytime soon. For now, the bears control the stock, I mentioned the volume because it paints two tales, one of control on low volume for the bears, and one of heavy volume when they do battle. Like on Friday afternoon, we had a clean chart and 32.3 million shares, what followed is 10 million shares in 1/2 hour and a drop from $ 13.30shr to $ 13.04/shr on super heavy volume. The volume is now controlled by the bears too and they stepped it up at the end of a trading week and ruined our chart. So now we are sitting at the lowest point in the Wedge Formation knowing that the bulls could barely lift us back into the WF for the close. We are technically inside the Wedge but as of Monday morning we have to realize that we are getting killed this time around.

The 5-dma rules everything, it will open at $ 13.66/shr on Monday, the 50-dma will barely budge during that time and the downtrend line will continue to walk step by step with the 5-dma down to uptrend line, thus it will be around $ 13.66 as well. We need to open almost unchanged here, perhaps trade down slightly in the first 1/2 hour and then mount a rally here. We need to close positive and set ourselves up for a breakout the next day. The most ideal trade would to be to open positively and rally into a breakout the same day.The RSI is at 42 and while not oversold, it is low enough to justify a major rally here. What seems to be happening is that we get meaningless news that supports the sell-off each day without anything to counter that news. What good news, that would normally drive the stock up in the past 5 months, seems to be pushed aside. Usually when a company launches a new product into a new market, the stock does well, but we haven't benefited from any of this news. Just a thought here. I'll let you mull all of this over. To summarize, we are out of the channel, might not get back into it, we have all but confirmed the fall below the 50-dma with 4 days outside and below it, and we have a huge battle on Monday with this Wedge Formation. Will the Bulls show up and save the stock? We need some news to make the bears back off here, right now they own this trade.

[OMGitworks]

"CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or "

yes we don't want to mislead CNBC, that is their job; lol

He's a CEO of a company, he should have been accurate about it. It was his chance to set the record straight. He didn't.

[OMGitworks]

I disagree. While it's obvious that Thor & Co underestimated the demand, unlike Apple they're launching worldwide pretty much in a month. Not only they have to stuff initial inventory into launch areas, they have to supply existing ones. I hardly see this as a failure. Additionally, the delay might be entirely out of Thor's hands. Problems at the factory, shipping issues, **** even a strike at a factory would cause a huge delay. Last I heard Blackberry was launching a new factory to try to keep up with the demand, it probably hasn't come online yet.

Correct me if I'm wrong but pretty much every Apple product has sold out on launch and it was a very long time before new stock arrived, how is this different? Nobody was calling for Steve Jobs resignation because of massive backorders.

I don't disagree that much with you but my point was that BBRY was not is APPL position. They needed to be ready with inventory. Maybe I am overstating it but what if launch day comes in the US in late March or April and there isn't sufficient inventory? What if large corporations want to switch over at 100, 500 or 1,000 devices at a time and can't becauue there aren't any phones available? How many sales are they losing now due to inventory.

It seems like the carriers may have underestimated demand, but are requesting larger orders that BBRY can't fill. The carriers were probably right to request small initial allocations, but my point was that BBRY should have been willing to gamble with BB10 production and it seems, if there really is supply constraints, that they didn't. That is what bothers me. This will trickle down to lost sales, weaker ER, and an opportunity for other phones to be launched before BBRY can actually supply enough devices.

Normally this would be a good problem to have, I am just not sure given where BBRY was, the cash it had on hand, and the make it or break it situation many thought they were in that they shouldn't have gone all in here.

[OMGitworks]

This is from an Accountant's point of view and I honestly think that Blackberry executing properly.

I agree the prudent thing to do, esp after the PB overstock/production debacle would normally be to be conservative. However, given the attacks BBRY was under by the stock market, critics, and others, I just thought they should have trusted themselves and BB10 and been BOLD.

[OMGitworks]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/296697616257912834

CNBCVerified account ‏@CNBC

Thorsten Heins to @CNBC: The #BB10 platform will allow us to increase market share; we have the production capacity to meet demand.

[silversun10]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/296697616257912834

CNBCVerified account ‏@CNBC

Thorsten Heins to @CNBC: The #BB10 platform will allow us to increase market share; we have the production capacity to meet demand.

a CEO is for sure not going say to CNBC, you know what interviewer, you got me there, probably we are going to fail, shareholders would be peeved
in no small measure. and as you quoted he said we are going to make enough to increase market share, guess what they can't fill the orders,
so they are going to increase market share even more than anticipated.
since when do share holders whine about better than expected sales?

[OMGitworks]

a CEO is for sure not going say to CNBC, you know what interviewer, you got me there, probably we are going to fail, shareholders would be peeved
in no small measure. and as you quoted he said we are going to make enough to increase market share, guess what they can't fill the orders,
so they are going to increase market share even more than anticipated.
since when do share holders whine about better than expected sales?

The problem is that they aren't sales unless you can produce and sell them. Without product, you lose sales, not make more sales, and can't increase market share, esp in the cell phone market where specs and new products are constantly evolving. He could have said "We think we have a sufficient supply to meet our optimistic internal estimates of demand. If sales exceed even our most optimistic estimates then, we have a plan in place to ramp up production." Its a win/win. That iCompany's stock used to get dinged when it couldn't meet demand which is why I think CNBC asked the question.

[silversun10]

The problem is that they aren't sales unless you can produce and sell them. Without product, you lose sales, not make more sales, and can't increase market share, esp in the cell phone market where specs and new products are constantly evolving. He could have said "We think we have a sufficient supply to meet our optimistic internal estimates of demand. If sales exceed even our most optimistic estimates then, we have a plan in place to ramp up production." Its a win/win. That iCompany's stock used to get dinged when it couldn't meet demand which is why I think CNBC asked the question.

do you have a source for your statement?
they can't produce the phones? where do you get that?

[Luke Barrie]

^thanks for all the charts and analysis morgan.

its tough because the chart indicators say this can be dragged down further by bears, but my experience with the device screams that this is far under value and the price will rocket up once we get some official news or figures. The lack of this device in the USA is i believe the real reason why analysts believe it is flopping. Personally, i think it is one of the slickest phones on the market, especially for a first-gen

also, remember that some of the bears will become bulls when the money suits them. We could see a very rapid rally upwards now that there is quite some headroom between the current price and the moving adverages

[OMGitworks]

I have said this before, but IF launch sales numbers are constrained by inventory shortages, then Thor should resign. I know that sounds harsh, but let's face it, BBRY's future, as we know it (not saying it would go under) is/was all hinged on BB10. They had plenty of cash on hand to crank out supply. They are basically doubling down on BBRY with BB10. If they hamstrung themselves by not believing enough in BB10 to spend as much of their cash on hand to ensure adequate supply, and meet as much demand as they could have predicted in their wildest dreams, they should resign. This wasn't the Play Book. If they don't believe in themselves, why should we and why should Wall St? They spent a ton of $$ to launch this, the US launch was delayed (for whatever reason you might think) and now if supply is going to restrict sales in a very critical time, for me, that is unforgivable. CNBC specifically asked Thor about supply constraints on launch day and he said there would be none. Either he misled them or they are intentionally restricting supply, neither of which seeks like a very solid business plan. Obviously others may feel otherwise.

I said IF. There seem to be many anecdotal reports here, esp this am that stores are only getting a few devices and are not being restocked.Selling out 10 phones at a store won't do it. We shall see, but BBRY won't tell us and estimates are all over the place.

[Charles Martin1]

He's a CEO of a company, he should have been accurate about it. It was his chance to set the record straight. He didn't.

I agree. He's not been doing a great job keeping the bears away. Then again, NOK had to deal with the same crap until they released (actually pre released) their sales numbers. However, they fell below $4/share shortly after the very brief optimism.

It's an extremely competitive business, which means BBRY Has a whole host of individuals and corporations, besides direct competitors, who are doing what they can to drive any potential optimism out of the public domain. My concern right now is how badly the absence of a US market will further remove any potential lift that would normally come from "good news".

Finally, I believe the long delay before the release of the Q10 was a terrible mistake. There may be another bit of optimism to come when they finally do release them but I am concerned at this stage.

[Sqoon]

His job isn't pushing up the stock in the short term, it is running the company. He has already shown that he can execute. Examples include the CORE program, keeping sales of OS7 up even though it is totally outclassed, and delaying BlackBerry 10 to make sure that it was ready to avoid a PlayBook fiasco.

Just show some patience.

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