[chrysaurora]

Shorts, stock manipulators don't really care about BlackBerry as a company. They care about making a quick buck. So, they spread negativity in media. But you know what? It's not just the stock that's taking a beating because of media negativity but also potential BlackBerry 10 sales. While I am not concerned about day to day stock price swings, what I am very concerned about is that these stock manipulators may end-up killing significant number of BB 10 sales by spreading misleading and often false opinion pieces. Eventually, that will kill stock too. But that's just a result (not cause) of bigger issue: reduced or declining sales. And sales will decline if media continues to spread negative (and false) opinion peices.

So, this needs to be addressed URGENTLY by BlackBerry (the company). I don't think BlackBerry, as a company, should act because stock is tanking but they should act because (prolonged) negativity in media is ALSO turning off potential customers, killing potential BlackBerry 10 sales. Either get your MEDIA RELATIONS team to issue counter narratives or even better ENGAGE with your end-users/early-adopters. Recruit them (recruit us, the early adopters) into helping you, into countering all this negativity.

How? I'll just repeat what I've said before (and I hope somebody senior at BlackBerry reads this and swiftly acts and when I say swiftly, I mean, acts TODAY!):

the single most important thing that Team BlackBerry can do is ENGAGE with early-adopters/end-users and RESPOND swiftly to their feedback by pushing out OS updates (bug reports, feature requests etc.). Everything else (positive buzz, good reviews, device-sales, stock-price) will logically follow from it.

Engagement is very lacking right now. BlackBerry Media Relations is not really doing anything to counter negative (and false) narratives.

Plus, a lot of end-users/early-adopters have sent feedback (posted on CB forums and BlackBerry's official support forums) but not received any response. Come on, BlackBerry, be honest and straightforward with us (your end-users/early adopters). ENGAGE us. Recruit us, and we will happily counter media negativity! But you are not even engaging us (your supporters, loyalists, early adopters)!

Response: I understand that OS 10 has only been out for 3 weeks but come on, let us know when can we expect an update? Show us that you appreciate all the bug reports we sent, show us that you are committed to helping us get stuff done by implementing features we care about! Even right now, we do NOT know when to expect an update, don't know any timeline. These vague, non-committal sound-bites are NOT okay!

[take99]

Newbie here, own some shares and have been following this thread for awhile. Saw this in my early morning ritual google, can't seem to find anymore info on it though. Anybody shed some light?
Seems to be a report from OTR Research, anybody have the actual report or know who they are?


TIME: 1439GMT
NEWS: OTR out positive on BlackBerry (BBRY), saying Z10 sales through the roof in Canada
REACTION: Co. shares moved 0.93% higher in immediate reaction to the news from USD 13.76 to USD 13.89.

[EvanRitch]

To me it seems the stock is starting to settle down 2 days without huge wild swings.

[Andrew4life]

I thought this analyst's name was familiar. He was the same gent who forecasted that BB10 would be DOA on November 7th last year. RIM BB10 to be dead on arrival, analyst says, causing shares to fall | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

Of course, he was also bullish on apple at the time time...

A lot of the bad press we're getting might seem crazy, but do make sure you brace yourself if truth comes out of it.
Remember when BB10 was supposed to be out earlier last year? Then later last year? Then early this year? Now mid year (at least for the US)?
There were plenty of analysts that said it was going to be delayed, delayed, delayed. The earliest we'll see is mid 2013 and by then BlackBerry is going to die, etc, etc.
Well, here comes 2013 and BlackBerry isn't dead, but indeed in the US market, we still do not have the Z10 released. The Q10 doesn't have a launch date because they're still working on it. And If they're supposedly releasing 6 devices this year, they only have about 8 more months to release the other 4 phones(+Q10 which has launched but hasn't been released). (Phones have to be released before the holiday rush with advertising and such, otherwise you're products will get lost in the flurry of products being released. E.g. No one really wants to release a device in November/December)

So as much as a lot of us are hoping that BlackBerry does well. There is a reason why some people are bear and some people are bull. It's because the future is very hazy at best. No one knows for sure what is going to happen in a few months or even a few years. So don't completely shut out the analysts that are saying BlackBerry can fail. Remember, any company can fail. Yes, even Apple.

[BThunderW]

The volatility decreasing and the price falling will make April calls that much more attractive. However if we do dip below 13 next week, I'll turn a lot of common to cash and set the appropriate buy stops

[Zarpan]

Newbie here, own some shares and have been following this thread for awhile. Saw this in my early morning ritual google, can't seem to find anymore info on it though. Anybody shed some light?
Seems to be a report from OTR Research, anybody have the actual report or know who they are?


TIME: 1439GMT
NEWS: OTR out positive on BlackBerry (BBRY), saying Z10 sales through the roof in Canada
REACTION: Co. shares moved 0.93% higher in immediate reaction to the news from USD 13.76 to USD 13.89.

They're described as a "alternative research firm supplying primary intelligence and channel checking to institutional investors". OTR apparently specializes in channel checks and has quite a few sources for that.

[Shanerredflag]

Here here for OTR....FTW to the slash press jockeys. just my two cents.

Posted via CB10

[plane6065]

Shorts, stock manipulators don't really care about BlackBerry as a company. They care about making a quick buck. So, they spread negativity in media. But you know what? It's not just the stock that's taking a beating because of media negativity but also potential BlackBerry 10 sales. While I am not concerned about day to day stock price swings, what I am very concerned about is that these stock manipulators may end-up killing significant number of BB 10 sales by spreading misleading and often false opinion pieces. Eventually, that will kill stock too. But that's just a result (not cause) of bigger issue: reduced or declining sales. And sales will decline if media continues to spread negative (and false) opinion peices.

So, this needs to be addressed URGENTLY by BlackBerry (the company). I don't think BlackBerry, as a company, should act because stock is tanking but they should act because (prolonged) negativity in media is ALSO turning off potential customers, killing potential BlackBerry 10 sales. Either get your MEDIA RELATIONS team to issue counter narratives or even better ENGAGE with your end-users/early-adopters. Recruit them (recruit us, the early adopters) into helping you, into countering all this negativity.

How? I'll just repeat what I've said before (and I hope somebody senior at BlackBerry reads this and swiftly acts and when I say swiftly, I mean, acts TODAY!):

the single most important thing that Team BlackBerry can do is ENGAGE with early-adopters/end-users and RESPOND swiftly to their feedback by pushing out OS updates (bug reports, feature requests etc.). Everything else (positive buzz, good reviews, device-sales, stock-price) will logically follow from it.

Engagement is very lacking right now. BlackBerry Media Relations is not really doing anything to counter negative (and false) narratives.

Plus, a lot of end-users/early-adopters have sent feedback (posted on CB forums and BlackBerry's official support forums) but not received any response. Come on, BlackBerry, be honest and straightforward with us (your end-users/early adopters). ENGAGE us. Recruit us, and we will happily counter media negativity! But you are not even engaging us (your supporters, loyalists, early adopters)!

Response: I understand that OS 10 has only been out for 3 weeks but come on, let us know when can we expect an update? Show us that you appreciate all the bug reports we sent, show us that you are committed to helping us get stuff done by implementing features we care about! Even right now, we do NOT know when to expect an update, don't know any timeline. These vague, non-committal sound-bites are NOT okay!

I agree with you that if there is no positive news coming very soon this stock could go down much farther. It can make today look like a tiny dip. I support blackberry and I am not bashing them, or playing the market. I just saw a $8,000 gain turn into -$1,000. Yeah I stay long and probably longer now. It scary because with more bad news each day, march 1st US tax deadline, no good news will certain bring BB price down to $10 or 12. Great for shorters, hedge funds and large investors. Many analyst say this is BB last great chance to succeed and carry on , I have to agree. BB need to step it up and show the world they are still the game, not only with the phone but other product .... Maybe can hear this during ER. Good luck everyone !

[take99]

They're described as a "alternative research firm supplying primary intelligence and channel checking to institutional investors". OTR apparently specializes in channel checks and has quite a few sources for that.

I was more interested in if anyone knew anything about their credibility and if they are credible why the h*** wasn't this all over the news today?? It doesn't say "strong sales in Canada" it says "sales through the roof"

[chrysaurora]

I agree with you that if there is no positive news coming very soon this stock could go down much farther. It can make today look like a tiny dip. I support blackberry and I am not bashing them, or playing the market. I just saw a $8,000 gain turn into -$1,000. Yeah I stay long and probably longer now. It scary because with more bad news each day, march 1st US tax deadline, no good news will certain bring BB price down to $10 or 12. Great for shorters, hedge funds and large investors. Many analyst say this is BB last great chance to succeed and carry on , I have to agree. BB need to step it up and show the world they are still the game, not only with the phone but other product .... Maybe can hear this during ER. Good luck everyone !

Yep. My concern is not about the stock. As Andrew4Life pointed out, stock tends to move towards is fair value (sometimes, it takes a bit of time to get there though). But my concern is that it's not just the stock that's taking a beating because of media negativity but also potential BlackBerry 10 sales. These stock manipulators may end-up killing significant number of BB 10 sales by spreading misleading and often false opinion pieces. Eventually, that will kill stock too. But that's just a result (not cause) of bigger issue: reduced or declining sales. And sales will decline if media continues to spread negative (and false) opinion pieces without any countering (corrective) narrative coming from BlackBerry.

Two of my friends have gone from definitely buying BB 10 to 'thinking about it' because 'dude, it is not as good as you said it'd be' and then they send me links to articles which contain outright false information! That is my concern. BlackBerry MUST engage users/early adopters. Their media team should figure out a way to release positive/corrective narratives!

Stock will eventually get to it's fair value. But reduced BB sales means fair value will decline too!

[drummer_god]

i don't know too many people who consider the stock price of a company when buying a phone.
apple shares are sliding big time, but people won't think of that when buying an apple product.

[Superfly_FR]

Their media team should figure out a way to release positive/corrective narratives!

They have plenty material: I for one have been interviewed during BBJam Europe - and many, many others were, at this event, and I believe to each event BB had since launch. One word would be wrong in what I believe is a legit attempt from you : speed. Like for BB10 release: if it's not ready, they can't afford shooting a bullet in their feet. Each word will count. Any breach will be flooded. Any weak will be turned to flaw.

Trust Boulben, he knows the job; do not forget U.S is more important for BlackBerry for being the leading world media influencer than as a market alone.
All this must be synced with U.S launch, then Q1 launch. Touchy, very touchy. Requires nerves, like a jockey must hold the reins before the last straight line; letting the breaks after the allegro not in the staccato.

You read me many times with these words : "stick to the plan". My feeling is that they are doing exactly that: no improvisation. Good.

[Tech Consultant]

Here is a link to a news article entitled 'Why Samsung Won't Beat Blackberry in the Mobile Enterprise' that I saw today in the front page of the web site of CIO Magazine. I think this should be of interet to people following BBRY/BB stock.

Why Samsung Won't Beat Blackberry in the Mobile Enterprise - CIO.com


Why Samsung Won't Beat Blackberry in the Mobile Enterprise
Samsung Safe aims to make Android phones better for the enterprise, but using the least secure mobile OS out there and ignoring the IT-ready BlackBerry might not be a good move.
By Rob Enderle
Fri, February 22, 2013

[Alexander Tran]

So I know the stock has been looking like **** the past month or so, but I got some good news from Waterloo! I've made some phone calls to carriers at the mall and have been getting great news.
1) Rogers at Contestoga Mall (Called today)
- Selling extremely well and demand is still alive
- Their sell ratio 4 Z10s :1 Iphone5
- Every couple days, they're getting a shipment of 30-40 units
2) Best Buy Mobile (Called last week)
-Demand is great
-Representative said the phone is great
-Demand still alive
-She was currently getting two people set up with the Z10 while I was talking to her
3) Rogers Fairview Park (Called today)
-Was more anal and didn't disclose specific numbers
-Said that he'd be surprised if there was no demand for the Z10
-Said they'll most likely be sold out the next two days

I tried calling Bell, but they always lead me to the answering machine and didn't take me anywhere.
Telus, I dont even bother. I called them last week and they said they were only getting shipments of 5-7 units every couple days and immediately sell out.

Anyways, this is my update from Waterloo and I hope to see updates from other regions of Canada, UK or even those who talked to Bell representatives

Much Appreciated[/LIST]

[lcjr]

Are you sure you don't want to tap into your beer fund?
You can either have 1 beer now. Or 3 beers later.

Oh, you are a crafty one, with much deception and means to lead astray. Get back you devil and leave us mortals to our vices!

[lcjr]

Hype will start circulating next month about a US launch... Price will hit $16 before Earnings. Yea buddy.

I'll hold you to that Kid. Don't make me come looking for you!

[Alexander Tran]

Here's a link to the forum post by Crackberry Kevin. "All of my indicators have been EXTREMELY positive so far - web traffic, store sales, forum action, etc." http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...s-sold-774486/

[Bbnivende]

The problem isn't with demand and sales . The problem is with unreasonable expectations of units sold by analysts and investors. Whether the z10 is selling well can only be made by comparison to other phones in the same market place. For example if the Z10 sales were equal to 20% of all smartphone sales in Canada made during relevant period would that meet expectations ? The actual number of units sold is mainly relevant by comparison. In the post Christmas period or any slow period only a certain number of phones get sold. The goal here is to be in the game and not a non starter.

[DarrenHD]

Shorts, stock manipulators don't really care about BlackBerry as a company. They care about making a quick buck. So, they spread negativity in media. But you know what? It's not just the stock that's taking a beating because of media negativity but also potential BlackBerry 10 sales. While I am not concerned about day to day stock price swings, what I am very concerned about is that these stock manipulators may end-up killing significant number of BB 10 sales by spreading misleading and often false opinion pieces.

I do agree with your post, and I do think that these stories can have a negative effect on the stock. However I think they would have have much less of an effect on sales as I think the vast majority of the general public never see this crap. IF it gets to mainstream news media and mainstream news sites then YES, it could have an effect, but in general I don't think most of these stories do. They are noise and do have an impact in the short term on the stock price - the same thing happened to Apple last quarter - it went from 700+ to nearly 400 after a series of negative articles and hasn't regained even 500 since.

We will have to go through this negative cycle until some hard numbers are released - which means earnings in March. Earnings plus outlook going forward will be key. Hang in there.

[DarrenHD]

The problem isn't with demand and sales . The problem is with unreasonable expectations of units sold by analysts and investors. Whether the z10 is selling well can only be made by comparison to other phones in the same market place. For example if the Z10 sales were equal to 20% of all smartphone sales in Canada made during relevant period would that meet expectations ? The actual number of units sold is mainly relevant by comparison. In the post Christmas period or any slow period only a certain number of phones get sold. The goal here is to be in the game and not a non starter.

Lower expectations (from Analysts) can be a good thing. It will make it easier for BBRY to "beat the street" and therefore get a pop post-earnings. If analyst expectations are too high (see Apple) then even though the company can have a great quarter, if it doesn't beat the impossible analyst estimates it can tank.

[lcjr]

I thought this analyst's name was familiar. He was the same gent who forecasted that BB10 would be DOA on November 7th last year. RIM BB10 to be dead on arrival, analyst says, causing shares to fall | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post

Of course, he was also bullish on apple at the time time...

And of course he's no longer available for comment? Go figure. I read a lot and do a lot of research, but I never accept opinion and/or store information from sources like this. I keep reading on this forum thread the many quotes and articles from various sources and it never stops to amaze me how easily we are swayed from our original perceptions. Those with adequate education and learning can decipher illicit and irrational input, but the majority of society relies on specific guidance. This being said, the common good of forums such as this one that gives the guidance or at least the insight into investments at the beginner level, which is a tremendous asset for many, is invaluable.

[Kid Vibe]

Get Involved in the Keep Moving Projects with Alicia Keys and BlackBerry 10 - YouTube


In case you haven't seen this. This could work for a great marketing campaign, especially in the US

[Charles Martin1]

Lower expectations (from Analysts) can be a good thing. It will make it easier for BBRY to "beat the street" and therefore get a pop post-earnings. If analyst expectations are too high (see Apple) then even though the company can have a great quarter, if it doesn't beat the impossible analyst estimates it can tank.

I believe the stock is going to tank on the release of earnings. Look how it tanked in December despite outperforming analyst expectations. They can say it was because of concern over changes to service revenue but this stock is a prime target for shorts and they won't stop hammering away at it until it's performance can reaffirm investors who are again confident enough to go long.

I am hopeful that will occur in September but am starting to think that we may have to get past the Christmas season.

[lcjr]

The volatility decreasing and the price falling will make April calls that much more attractive. However if we do dip below 13 next week, I'll turn a lot of common to cash and set the appropriate buy stops

BThunderW, I appreciate your input at all times. I need to understand what you just said? Meaning, I'm still not educated on "calls" even though I researched it. What is your "personal" opinion or recommendation on people wanting to take advantage on the current dips and peaks??? Your insight is most appreciated...

[Charles Martin1]

Awesome.

It really is.