[Tinomane]

I posted this in another thread, but this is from Bolus breath on yahoos BBRY message board and it makes a lot of sense to me. Analysts are severely underestimating Z10's sales which could prove to be awesome come mar earnings.


"Here is my unscientific channel check

Stores in Canada
Rogers 450
Bell Canada 2000
Telus 113
Total: 2563

U.K. Stores
Phones4U 600
Vodaphone 365
Carphone Warehouse 794
EE (Orange + T Mobile) 700
O2 462
Total: 2921

Grand Total: 5484 stores in Canada + U.K.
5484 x 1 phone sold per store per day x 26 average selling days in February = 142,584
If 2 phones per store per day sold = 285168. Insert your own number. This takes no pre-orders into consideration or tier 2 carriers or other independant phone resellers.

Now add in any enterprise + government purchases, plus additional February sales into UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, France, lebanon, India, Nigeria, maybe Germany and Spain. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but you get the picture.

They are on track to sell over 2,000,000 BB7 devices worldwide in February based on 6.9 million phones sold in the previous quarter. 300,000 BB10's in February? Really?!"

And he's not counting future shop, best buy, london drugs, etc.

[tmurphx5]

Don’t Believe Everything You Hear, The Z10 Sales Are Going Strong

He doesn't give a lot of detail / facts but neither do the analysts that are saying sales are low.

http://n4bb.com/dont-believe-hear-z1...-going-strong/

[Luke Barrie]

^this. I can imagine bigger retailer locations are selling 3 or more of these a day. They are nice phones, and gather a lot of attention for the brandname, particularly here in canada.

Its hard to predict the market, there is a lot of day traders and options trading going on that drives the price. Hopefully we will see a lot of long calls to rally this back up

[DragonFlyer]

BlackBerry faces questions on early Z10 sales - The Tell - MarketWatch

This report claims that as of today Blackberry has only launched the Z10 in Canada and U.K.
How do they get away with these lies and missleading reports?

[herol]

Yesterday I returned from London.
The BB 10 advertise was at almost every train and tube station, I was pleasantly surprised.(Here is picture from Paddington train station)

I was at the Phone4u and Carphone wearhouse shops on the main streets. In the Phone4u they didn't had a phones in the shops but said that if i want the can bring it from the storage room.
In the Carphone wear house there was a big advertise and a phone to test but unfortunately it was with flat battery.
The staff doesn't seemed to be existed by the phone and the customers who were in the shops were asking for iPhones.

The BB is pretty popular in UK, most people have both iPhones and BB Curve or Bolds, but it seems that the people are not informed about BB 10.
Maybe it will take a while to realise the benefits of the new platform.

I strongly believe that Q10 will be with great succes as most of the people didn't recognise Z10 as replacement to their old BB.

[slipstream89]

The rogers store here had initial stock around 10-20 for the smaller stores (I live north of toronto in the suburbs) and they sold out first day but still hasn't been restocked last i checked which was feb 13. Ill go in today and see if they got more

Got through to one store, had the black in stock but sold out of white I asked him about how often they restock and he said the computer determines when they need more and sends in automatic orders. How long it takes for it to arrive he didn't say

[greggebhardt]

We got to remember that we are not normal. Most people do not spend their day on the CB forums. Blackberry is advertising for people who may walk into a store and buy their first Blackberry and it will likely be a 9900. Still lots of stock and they have never seen or heard of a Z10.

[pooger]

OMG I'm SO normal!

[herol]

We got to remember that we are not normal. Most people do not spend their day on the CB forums. Blackberry is advertising for people who may walk into a store and buy their first Blackberry and it will likely be a 9900. Still lots of stock and they have never seen or heard of a Z10.

Yes, you are right, that's what I meant.

[herol]

We got to remember that we are not normal.

[Bugmapper]

I had a different way of looking at the number of potential sales. (Maybe less accurate but it made me feel confident that 300,000 should be easily achieved)
I was wondering how many outlets there would be per capita so I did a really rough check in my town (pop. ~80,000) and there are about 8 outlets (Future Shop, WalMart, Bell, Telus, Fido, Rogers, etc.) all of which are having trouble keeping stock on the shelves. I'm sure some areas have a higher density and some rural areas will have a lower density of retail outlets. However, if I assume that the average density is 1 retail outlet per 10,000 persons in the current BB10 launch countries, and each outlet has, or will receive 20 units, that is 20 sales per 10,000 persons in February. The population of Canada + UK + UAE is approximately 106,000,000. That would work out to about 212,000 retail sales. That does not include pre-orders, web sales, any sales in all of the other countries that have or will have launches before March 2nd, and any corporate sales. Feel free to hack away at my assumptions.

[BBNation]

I posted this in another thread, but this is from Bolus breath on yahoos BBRY message board and it makes a lot of sense to me. Analysts are severely underestimating Z10's sales which could prove to be awesome come mar earnings.


"Here is my unscientific channel check

Stores in Canada
Rogers 450
Bell Canada 2000
Telus 113
Total: 2563

U.K. Stores
Phones4U 600
Vodaphone 365
Carphone Warehouse 794
EE (Orange + T Mobile) 700
O2 462
Total: 2921

Grand Total: 5484 stores in Canada + U.K.
5484 x 1 phone sold per store per day x 26 average selling days in February = 142,584
If 2 phones per store per day sold = 285168. Insert your own number. This takes no pre-orders into consideration or tier 2 carriers or other independant phone resellers.

Now add in any enterprise + government purchases, plus additional February sales into UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, France, lebanon, India, Nigeria, maybe Germany and Spain. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but you get the picture.

They are on track to sell over 2,000,000 BB7 devices worldwide in February based on 6.9 million phones sold in the previous quarter. 300,000 BB10's in February? Really?!"

And he's not counting future shop, best buy, london drugs, etc.

Add enterprise clients to that, my company pucrchased 10 phones for testing. Once testing is done we will be replacing 200 bbs with new ones, z10 or q10

[lcjr]

Originally Posted by greggebhardt
We got to remember that we are not normal.

I think us peoples on this forum are much more gooder then those not on this forum. Because we are more smarter then them. hahahahahah.

[DragonFlyer]

I had a different way of looking at the number of potential sales. (Maybe less accurate but it made me feel confident that 300,000 should be easily achieved)
I was wondering how many outlets there would be per capita so I did a really rough check in my town (pop. ~80,000) and there are about 8 outlets (Future Shop, WalMart, Bell, Telus, Fido, Rogers, etc.) all of which are having trouble keeping stock on the shelves. I'm sure some areas have a higher density and some rural areas will have a lower density of retail outlets. However, if I assume that the average density is 1 retail outlet per 10,000 persons in the current BB10 launch countries, and each outlet has, or will receive 20 units, that is 20 sales per 10,000 persons in February. The population of Canada + UK + UAE is approximately 106,000,000. That would work out to about 212,000 retail sales. That does not include pre-orders, web sales, any sales in all of the other countries that have or will have launches before March 2nd, and any corporate sales. Feel free to hack away at my assumptions.

I am from a city of 200,000 people. I was at one of our local malls last Wednesday around 6pm. The mall was pretty empty so I decided it would be a good time to see how many different locations in the Mall were selling the Z10. I was surprised to see that there were 13 different spots throughout the mall. Out of those 13 locations there were only 2 that had customers and they were checking out the Z10 demo.

[lcjr]

I am from a city of 200,000 people. I was at one of our local malls last Wednesday around 6pm. The mall was pretty empty so I decided it would be a good time to see how many different locations in the Mall were selling the Z10. I was surprised to see that there were 13 different spots throughout the mall. Out of those 13 locations there were only 2 that had customers and they were checking out the Z10 demo.

Where are you from DragonFlyer, if I may ask?

[Bugmapper]

. Out of those 13 locations there were only 2 that had customers and they were checking out the Z10 demo.

So you are saying that 100% of all customers were purchasing a Z10! That's great! When I guessed at 1 retail outlet per 10,000 I was only really counting the big stores, not the sunglass hut outlets. Either way, a single mall with 13 Z10 displays is fantastic.

[leafs123]

I'm gonna take a guess and say that not many enterprise upgrade numbers will be reflected in the next ER. I do not think many enterprises upgraded right away and from a personal perspective, my place of work is not upgrading till later in the year (big 5 Canadian bank).

[Bugmapper]

I'm gonna take a guess and say that not many enterprise upgrade numbers will be reflected in the next ER. I do not think many enterprises upgraded right away and from a personal perspective, my place of work is not upgrading till later in the year (big 5 Canadian bank).

I agree, but thousands will be bought for testing purposes....

[DragonFlyer]

Where are you from DragonFlyer, if I may ask?

I'm from Ontario, Canada.
I don't kow how much my observations play on the bigger picture as RIM 's home is from the same Country and province.

[leafs123]

I agree, but thousands will be bought for testing purposes....

Not necessarily. I can't find the article now but it was reported a while back that RIM was providing devices to enterprises free of charge to ease with the upgrade. It will be interesting anyways in the next ER.

[DarrenHD]

Looks like a crap day on the markets, most stuff down. BBRY (or BB on TSX) doing pretty bad, looks like we are outside of the channel. If we close this way I hope for a bounce back inside, but if not and we have broken the channel this isn't good.

[DragonFlyer]

So you are saying that 100% of all customers were purchasing a Z10! That's great! When I guessed at 1 retail outlet per 10,000 I was only really counting the big stores, not the sunglass hut outlets. Either way, a single mall with 13 Z10 displays is fantastic.

I didn't witness any purchases taking place but 100% were looking at it. I was also impressed with the size of the displays. It was the first thing I noticed as I walked by each location.

[greggebhardt]

Normal is only a perception!

We all share a love for our phones and their technology.

[Bugmapper]

I didn't witness any purchases taking place but 100% were looking at it.

Awwww... there goes the rumour.

[bungaboy]

I had a different way of looking at the number of potential sales. (Maybe less accurate but it made me feel confident that 300,000 should be easily achieved)
I was wondering how many outlets there would be per capita so I did a really rough check in my town (pop. ~80,000) and there are about 8 outlets (Future Shop, WalMart, Bell, Telus, Fido, Rogers, etc.) all of which are having trouble keeping stock on the shelves. I'm sure some areas have a higher density and some rural areas will have a lower density of retail outlets. However, if I assume that the average density is 1 retail outlet per 10,000 persons in the current BB10 launch countries, and each outlet has, or will receive 20 units, that is 20 sales per 10,000 persons in February. The population of Canada + UK + UAE is approximately 106,000,000. That would work out to about 212,000 retail sales. That does not include pre-orders, web sales, any sales in all of the other countries that have or will have launches before March 2nd, and any corporate sales. Feel free to hack away at my assumptions.

In my small town of ~3000 people there are 3 phone stores (Bell, Rogers and Telus) plus a Wally-World.

Where I got mine at Bell store they sold out their initial order of 40 phones on day 1. Has been trying to get more in since then.