[Superfly_FR]

BB has two choices, deliver in a couple of weeks and run out of handsets the first day or wait for a month (or two) and have more units to sell.

My vote goes to #1.

[silversun10]

From what we have seen, so far, BB is having supply problems and it would take a LARGE number of devices to do an introduction in the USA.

BB has two choices, deliver in a couple of weeks and run out of handsets the first day or wait for a month (or two) and have more units to sell.

Either way it is not good

supply problems are a luxury problem, sure beats sitting on a full warehouse of inventory......BB10 sells and that is what counts.....

[StormieTwo]

supply problems are a luxury problem, sure beats sitting on a full warehouse of inventory......BB10 sells and that is what counts.....

Definetly the way to go, let the supply shortage create a sense of demand and maintain the price of the handset for as long as supply is outstripped by demand.

[greggebhardt]

supply problems are a luxury problem, sure beats sitting on a full warehouse of inventory......BB10 sells and that is what counts.....

Sorry but short supply will only p|ss people off even more. They need to have the inventory to cover not only the initial demand at introduction but some inventory after that

[OMGitworks]

Sorry but short supply will only p|ss people off even more. They need to have the inventory to cover not only the initial demand at introduction but some inventory after that

With other hot phones to be released soon after the US launch, I think they need to have an ample supply on hand for the US launch or they will definitely lose US buyers. If shortages are confirmed, the stock will take a beating. Thor was specifically asked on launch day on CNBC about any supply constraints and he said there would be none.... Granted it is a nice problem to have, but BBRY can't afford this problem.

[Komoto]

From what we have seen, so far, BB is having supply problems and it would take a LARGE number of devices to do an introduction in the USA. T-Mo must have got their order in early, before AT&T

BB has two choices if supplies are short, deliver in a couple of weeks and run out of handsets the first day or wait for a month (or two) and have more units to sell.

Either way it is not good

I don't agree, i think your first scenario is a positive. Seems to have worked well for Apple over the years, i think it makes a product more appealing if people cant have it/it is unavailable to them. It will certainly create more buzz.

[crackerdoodle]

Just out. BBRY loses New Zealand police contract. 6000 units. When it rains it pours I guess?

[OMGitworks]

seems like every single news site keeps stating different release dates...now they just spreading pure rumours. Some say late april some say may...when will this ****ty journalism stop

It will and should stop when BBRY and the CARRIERS give us all a firm date. This uncertainty is hurting BBRY shares and eating into potential Z10 sales every single day they leave an information vacuum out there. Pick a day and announce it and end the rumors and speculation.

[crackerdoodle]

Another Blow For BlackBerry As New Zealand Cops Pick iOS Devices
In another setback for BlackBerry’s key government business, the New Zealand police force has chosen iOS devices over smartphones and tablets running competing operating systems. Kiwi cops will be kitted out with iOS devices after spending nearly a year testing iPhones and iPads against models running BlackBerry and Android, reports the National Business Review.

New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and Police Minister Anne Tolley announced that 6,000 frontline officers will receive an iPhone, while 3,900 will also get an iPad, in the initial rollout. The decision came after 100 staff members spent 11 months testing devices.

New Zealand police chief information officer Stephen Crombie said that Apple’s products were chosen because it is easier to upgrade to newer iOS phones and tablets:

“Based on frontline officer feedback from the trial (over 100 staff in four districts trialled smartphones, laptops and tablets over an 11-month period) the preferred devices are the iPhone as smartphone and iPad for the tablet. The approach used to develop the applications means Police can move to other devices with relative ease as technology changes.”

The initial rollout over the next three months will cost $4.3 million NZ, or about $3.75 million USD. In the next 10 years, the program will cost $159 million NZ ($134.7 million USD), but the police claim that the investment will reap productivity benefits of $305 million NZ ($258.5 million USD) over the decade.

The move comes as a chunk of the New Zealand police force switch carriers from Telecom to Vodafone. Vodafone won a 10-year outsourced deal, which represents new business for the company. Crombie told the National Business Review that Telecom’s Gen-i division, which had previously been the force’s sole carrier, will continue to supply mobile services for operational management and administrative staff. Over the next year, however, Crombie said that police will be “working to determine how many of these mobiles will move to the arrangement with Vodafone.”

The New Zealand police force’s decision is yet another setback for BlackBerry in Oceania. Earlier this month, Australia’s Treasury Department said it would replace 250 BlackBerry devices with the iPhone 5 after the Defence Signals Directorate certified iOS for government use. The rollout is expected to be completed by the end of March. The Treasury Department’s chief information officer said the decision was made in spite of BB10′s launch because “BlackBerry has pretty limited capability. With the new one being launched, it’s almost too late. Maybe it’ll catch up, maybe it won’t.”

More government agencies are switching away from BlackBerry devices–something that should worry the company formerly known as Research In Motion if it wants to hold onto its core government business. Last October, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement chose the iPhone as its new mobile platform, with 17,676 ICE employees receiving iPhones instead of BlackBerrys. The agency followed the Federal Air Marshall Service, the Coast Guard, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Transportation Security Administration, the Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration as U.S. federal agencies that had either switched away from BlackBerry or started offering their employees alternative devices.

A recent Gartner report showed that in Q4 2012, BlackBerry held just 3.5% of the global market share for smartphones, down from 8.8% in the same period a year earlier.

BlackBerry seems well aware of the problem-earlier this month its vice president of government solutions, Paul Lucier, told Government Technology that BlackBerry’s stringent security standards inadvertently drove customers away.

“They locked [BlackBerry devices] down so much that people were really only using them for email, very basic features. As the BYOD trend started to take off across enterprise, government included, it posed a big challenge. People were comparing a brand-new device on the market that had all the bells and whistles with a locked-down BlackBerry,” Lucier sa

[Shanerredflag]

Sorry but short supply will only p|ss people off even more. They need to have the inventory to cover not only the initial demand at introduction but some inventory after that

I would be cautious believing what a couple low level writers say the week that options expire...spin to drop the price.

[crackerdoodle]

BBRY needs to come out with some news releases about renewals and new contracts imo.

[Tinomane]

Has there been any big business or enterprise that switched over to the Z10 yet? There were tons that were testing them, but I haven't seen any reports of them actually signing a contract.

[crackerdoodle]

50 days crushed here could be big trouble

[crackerdoodle]

sorry 50 day ma

[BThunderW]

Jim Balsillie sold his stake in BBRY last year.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...679_sc13ga.htm

[crackerdoodle]

balsillie reports zero percent stake in BBRY

[Shanerredflag]

Jim Balsillie sold his stake in BBRY last year.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...679_sc13ga.htm

That would explain some of the huge volume going into the launch.

[crackerdoodle]

Deutch Bank out with "** hum" launch info. Reiterate $8 target. Just out

[OMGitworks]

Jim Balsillie sold his stake in BBRY last year.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...679_sc13ga.htm

Say it ain't so. I really hope this is an error or he moved them to a trust or something else that is triggering this report. Imagine being Prem Watsa having thrown in a lot of your money, getting on the board and then watching Jim get out???. This won't help....

[crackerdoodle]

Deutsche Bank Reports **-Hum Results from BlackBerry's (BBRY) Launch Survey
February 14, 2013 8:47 AM EST
Deutsche Bank reported results of recent checks on the launch of BlackBerry's (NASDAQ: BBRY) Z10 smartphone in the UK and Canada. The results were solid for the new device although they don't believes initial results from the launch will translate into strong sales for the device.

"Over the past two days, we conducted another survey of carrier stores. We used the same 30 carrier stores in the UK, but this time added 30 carrier stores in Canada. The story from each geography was very different. In Canada, many stores reported being sold out of the Z10 and the sales force was well-versed on the device’s attributes; however, a few representatives told us that they did not receive a large initial inventory. In the UK, the sales force was better-versed on the feature sets relative to the week prior; however, no stores were sold out. We maintain our Hold as we think the initial signs of this launch do not indicate the strong sales we would like to see."

In Canada, the firm notes the country is rooting for the home team. "It appears that Blackberry has done a much better job at defending their home turf. The sales representatives appear well-trained and while there are incidents of low initial stocking levels, demand generally appears better in Canada than it does in the UK. We think strong sales in Canada is a requirement for BB10 to gain the traction globally."

In the UK, it appears that Blackberry is correcting the missteps in made in the first week, the firm notes. "While this may not affect initial demand there, it will go a long way towards helping them gain mind-share with the consumer and hopefully that will translate into sales over the longer term. We will continue to monitor their progress there closely, but so far, we conclude that the sales in the region have been tepid."

The firm reiterated their Hold rating and price target of $8.00.

[OMGitworks]

That would explain some of the huge volume going into the launch.

He "only" held 27M shares and I doubt he sold on one day or even in one week. Still it is very troublesome and disappointing.

[AlexejKir]

This is just bad news all over the place....

[Komoto]

Jim Balsillie sold his stake in BBRY last year.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/da...679_sc13ga.htm

read up on it, answered my own question

[morganplus8]

I think I have said this before but I need to say it again I really enjoy discussing this with you and really enjoy the give and take - and no confusion - just being a little "cheeky" I hope it's OK I feel like this thread is one of the most civil on this blog and we are able to have a little fun from time to time. From your avatar I believe we are contemporaries, are you trading long enough to remember the weekly books we had to rely on for charts, along with a great metal ruler and a very sharp pencil. On my desk we used to tease each other when there were erasures evident that we were redrawing to suit our positions, and those conversations always started "did you redraw that line..."

As I said I was unable to get to this post till just before I wrote my earlier one after the close and came here to get a feel for the trading after seeing the closing price. I like this post there are comments all through out the day gives me a great chance to get a feel for direction, volatility, and sentiment. One of the reasons I don't trade individual stocks I don't have the time to get the feel of the movement. I grew up watching the old green screens and getting a feel for the market and order ebb and flow and won't trade a market I can't spend time watching, so I appreciate what you said about getting back to yours! I would have like to try my hand at the old days of ticker trading .

I don't have a disagreement with anything you have in your 2nd post and again your window on the stock is longer than mine and so far as others have said you have a nice feeling for direction and some good technical arguments to back them up.

A few years ago I took some Demark classes but they were over my head. I think we can make trading way too difficult sometimes.Attachment 135836 One of the tools that stayed with me is the 5 and 21 period charts. For stocks "day" are great (in coffee we sometimes use 15 min, 30 min charts to get a feel for direction in quick trading, every now and then I throw up the tick charts with the MAs and RSI when I really get going (ie bored). The best part about 5 and 21 is you most always are in on the long moves and you rarely if ever get caught in the down drafts, though in commodities it's more than possible. Your analysis of 70 RSI right out of the text book, and I have traded markets that went over 90 and one time saw a market get to 6 as well - both thanks to hedge funds overextending themselves in the OI, if you thinks stocks took a beating in 2007 check out the coffee chart when you get a chance

I posted the simple MA chart, it would at least have me squared up for now waiting for the next pivot, which could even be higher like it was the last time. (Note I don't have access to individual stock charts except at Yahoo/Google and Yahoo would only give me the 20day MA). That never bothers me "the trend is your friend". Keep up the great work I am a fan and it's one of the reasons I come back to this thread. I am as much a fan of all you guys here buying the stock as I am of BBRY itself.

hey randall2580,

Ha! I know all about pulling paper out to have a look at historical data, lucky for me, PC's developed fast enough to take over that tedious task! For the record I started out as one of the youngest commodities traders and later on became a large brokerage firms specialist in options strategies. I gave it all up to become an engineer. I retired young due too some huge capitals gains problems. So now I can sit back and trade as I please and develop land etc.. That's my story. My rule of thumb is to follow the moving average that matches the trade. In the case of BBRY, it is the 5-dma, anything after that is looking for possible support. If you stay in the trade when the 5-dma is voilated, you are likely to be married to it! I don't discuss much technical stuff here as I'm more interested in getting the basic message across to the masses. I could bore everyone with too many details and that's counter productive.

Today we have a gap down day, below huge support (50-dma), on contrived poor news. The stock is getting pushed down on all of this momentum and it isn't clear whether there is anyone there to support the stock. We will know at the open. I sold a pile of other investments to get ready for this moment and I'll be a buyer this morning. The best possible out come would be for a Key-Reversal where the stock gaps down, stays down and then rallies to close positive on the day. It is possible and we'll see. I like the investment down here believing that BB is still going to be doing "the right thing", i.e., partnering up etc, in the weeks ahead. The news on the New Zealand scoop came out 10 hours ago and certainly won't sway my thinking that this is a new era and the Z10 is very competitive.

Good luck with your investing, I'll be supporting your messages as we battle through this test!

[crackerdoodle]

bears are in full attack mode. BBRY needs to counter punch. Strong stock will be percieved as strong product imo