[Charles Martin1]

I hope the investors in this thread didn't get shaken out by this drop. This was definitely hard to watch, especially last hour. I was able to pick up few hundred shares earlier in the day thinking that it wouldn't drop past 14.4 (CAD) but then it went into a freefall on some really questionable "news".

The deep pockets are very much in control of this stock, it was evident since Monday morning that this is an option play. Options expire on Friday so things will start going back to normal. Problem is that we need to entice some new buyers to jump in, we'll definitely get some value buyers at this price plus whoever has been shorting since Monday will probably start covering but unless we get some real news the recovery will be slow.

Some good news here:

BlackBerry owner loyalty analysis: surge from 18% to 43% | BGR

[plane6065]

Some good news here:

BlackBerry owner loyalty analysis: surge from 18% to 43% | BGR

Yep, I read that article. Not sure how many people read that site, but I guess any positive news is good. BB is a roller coaster ride that is fuel news and speculation until actual sales/revenue numbers come out . Stock price is still good to buy now, and if it drops buy more to average down.... Pay day tomorrow . Huummmh. :-)

[drummer_god]

That article was re-posted on yahoo.com

[chrysaurora]

What do you guys think BBRY are doing? Sitting on their hands after the launch. Not a chance! The "Gang" in Waterloo are working hard to address the bugs, no doubt about it. Lots of us know people on the inside and we know they report bugs and improvement requests internally and you can bet your last dollar that they are actively collecting intel from Crackberry, N4BB, and BlackberryOS. We can report them faster then they can fix them, that's for sure and we need to remember that bugs are different than enhancements. They probably spend a lot of money just sorting the wheat from the chaf coming for the fansites.

Of course, they are working. I am just reiterating that point. Key to BlackBerry's comeback is how fast it is able to respond to user-feedback (both reported bugs and requested enhancements). For a first gen device, BlackBerry 10 is already phenomenal. In my opinion, it is better than iPhone and Android (I don't use many apps, so lack of certain apps like NetFlix make no difference to me personally but I want those apps to be in-there so that I can get my friends to try it too). That said, there are a few inconsistencies or bugs in the OS (admittedly, the bugs are very few for a first gen OS) and if BlackBerry fixed these issues in next few weeks, I think it'd become the best smartphone EVER!

If they don't fix them quickly, their customers (coming from BB 7) are going to complain. And media will play it up like nobody's business. Media is not going to realize that BB 6/7 users are just nitpicking. They'll just say something like ' even current BlackBerry users are disappointed by BlackBerry 10' or something along those lines. So, it's imperative for BlackBerry to address these issues as fast as possible.

I'm still here. There was no reason for me to comment as morganplus8 has this one pretty well covered. Just wanted to make sure everyone is calm and doesn't make any rash decisions.

It's been a tough last few days for sure. But too late to sell now. Just wait for it to come back

Never rush an update. Never. It takes time to meet expectations with a decent execution. "The better is good enemy ", sometimes.

Yes, I agree. But they could start releasing incremental updates. Say, release OS fixes for top 5 issues every weekend or every other weekend and so on. Instead of releasing one update with lots of fixes 2 months later. This way, current BlackBerry 10 users will have (at-least) some of the issues fixed right away and start enjoying their device even MORE!
Sure, weekly release or bi-weekly release might add some overhead to development cycle but that overhead is more than offset by happier customers!

Really, the key to BlackBerry's success and turn-around is simply this: respond to end-user feedback as fast as possible. Monthly OS updates/patches will be good, bi-weekly updates will be even better (at least until 90% of the initial bugs have been fixed). Once this happens, stock will take care of itself. Nobody will be able to stop or hide the awesomeness of a BlackBerry 10 device.

[m0de25]

There are companies out there with much better scale that can produce entry-level phones more efficiently and at better cost then BBRY. This isn't an admission that BBRY can't do it, rather it's an admission that Thor is smart enough to realize that entering a low margin cutthroat entry-level market doesn't make sense, but he realizes the importance of the market, so he licenses it out and earns licensing fees.

Sounds exactly like they can't play at the low end phone manufacturing without BIS fees to profit from (we are saying the same thing... I'm saying they can't do this, you are saying it doesn't make sense for them to do it. 6 of one, 1/2 dozen of the other). BB cannot survive at this hardware tier, everyone is in agreement so this article is nothing but thinking out loud: "Yep, it'd be great to license BB10 to a manufacturer willing to pump out cheap hardware for us". I don't see it as news, that's all.

[abouthsu]

I'm still here. There was no reason for me to comment as morganplus8 has this one pretty well covered. Just wanted to make sure everyone is calm and doesn't make any rash decisions.

Again, I want to thank yourself and Morgan providing amazing information. I'm a rookie in this trading theme and do appreciate you both providing facts and valuable explanation that really calm my nerves like today.

[randall2580]

Hi randall2580!

The first chart I drew today, had a low of $ 14.06/shr at that time, my last one is of course the end of the day. I have a 42 inch monitor and can do some decent charts on that but I was in a hurry to buy some more BBRY towards the close and slapped together a chart as fast as I could. Having said that, the lower uptrend line is clearly beginning to follow the 50-dma now and let's face it, the 50-dma is the premier support line at this time. We could see something just below the 50-dma as they try to push it through that milestone but it is nowhere near the $ 12.00/shr mark and you can bet that any future rallies in the stock will be muted if it ever breaks below that uptrend line. When a stock falls below its trend line, it is now a recovery stock where everyone that has ever owned it wants out on the rallies thus limiting its upside potential.

The area you talk about, the $ 11.50 to $ 12.00 area, is really support for the RSI as it would be reading 70 plus at that level and grossly over-sold. The problem we would have would be the destruction of the chart dating back to the Sept Double Bottom!!! If we lose that, we are going to trade sideways for months to come. One thing I should mention is that if we break below support or the 50-dma in this case, it has to confirm the trend change, that means it has to stay below the 50-dma for 3 or more days. To pop below it by Friday and then regain it on Tuesday means the trend is still up.

Here is the area you are talking about, it is clearly outside the boundaries:

Attachment 135783

In the past, we have dropped back to the uptrend line and bounced off it quickly, but a lot has changed this time around and I believe it is because our support occurs at much higher levels and is harder to justify. At the beginning of the rally it is easy to get a crowd to buy the stock but now we are much higher and hoping the company will do enough to get analysts to raise their targets. This is a dangerous game as we are relying on others to help the stock along. On top of all of this, the traders are heavily short the stock preventing it from going to crazy levels. They are now in control of the stock as there is no threat of news at the moment. I would like to see it stay within this channel for a month or so, see how the USA does on the launch and go from there. That would take us over $ 20.00/shr.. Will it happen? We'll know more tomorrow, but I have to say, it is ripe for a pop here back to $ 17.00/shr.

Sorry if my message is confusing at times, I pump these charts out quickly and get back to my trading. I really just want everyone to see that the stock is following a well defined trend here and we need to keep it intact. Good luck!

I think I have said this before but I need to say it again I really enjoy discussing this with you and really enjoy the give and take - and no confusion - just being a little "cheeky" I hope it's OK I feel like this thread is one of the most civil on this blog and we are able to have a little fun from time to time. From your avatar I believe we are contemporaries, are you trading long enough to remember the weekly books we had to rely on for charts, along with a great metal ruler and a very sharp pencil. On my desk we used to tease each other when there were erasures evident that we were redrawing to suit our positions, and those conversations always started "did you redraw that line..."

As I said I was unable to get to this post till just before I wrote my earlier one after the close and came here to get a feel for the trading after seeing the closing price. I like this post there are comments all through out the day gives me a great chance to get a feel for direction, volatility, and sentiment. One of the reasons I don't trade individual stocks I don't have the time to get the feel of the movement. I grew up watching the old green screens and getting a feel for the market and order ebb and flow and won't trade a market I can't spend time watching, so I appreciate what you said about getting back to yours! I would have like to try my hand at the old days of ticker trading .

I don't have a disagreement with anything you have in your 2nd post and again your window on the stock is longer than mine and so far as others have said you have a nice feeling for direction and some good technical arguments to back them up.

A few years ago I took some Demark classes but they were over my head. I think we can make trading way too difficult sometimes. One of the tools that stayed with me is the 5 and 21 period charts. For stocks "day" are great (in coffee we sometimes use 15 min, 30 min charts to get a feel for direction in quick trading, every now and then I throw up the tick charts with the MAs and RSI when I really get going (ie bored). The best part about 5 and 21 is you most always are in on the long moves and you rarely if ever get caught in the down drafts, though in commodities it's more than possible. Your analysis of 70 RSI right out of the text book, and I have traded markets that went over 90 and one time saw a market get to 6 as well - both thanks to hedge funds overextending themselves in the OI, if you thinks stocks took a beating in 2007 check out the coffee chart when you get a chance

I posted the simple MA chart, it would at least have me squared up for now waiting for the next pivot, which could even be higher like it was the last time. (Note I don't have access to individual stock charts except at Yahoo/Google and Yahoo would only give me the 20day MA). That never bothers me "the trend is your friend". Keep up the great work I am a fan and it's one of the reasons I come back to this thread. I am as much a fan of all you guys here buying the stock as I am of BBRY itself.

[Whitecaps]

the sales numbers could very well be weak coz theres its not even on sale in the US! except for that anonymous telecom company selling the z10 for ridiculous $999

[silversun10]

the sales numbers could very well be weak coz theres its not even on sale in the US! except for that anonymous telecom company selling the z10 for ridiculous $999

what numbers would you consider weak and when will you say the numbers are strong?

[Whitecaps]

the question is how much money did Blackberry make off the launch of Z10??? if at all..

[Sqoon]

I would mention that nobody knows what will happen to BlackBerry in the next year or two. Lots of guesses but that is about it.
So it will be extremely volatile until it is obvious that they have succeeded as number three or failed then it will look a lot more normal. If your risk tolerance is low, I would suggest not being in the stock. If you put a lot in, stop being crazy and take money off the table.
I would love for BlackBerry to succeed, that doesn't mean I have more than a couple hundred in the game.


Posted using CrackBerry App on BB10

[Whitecaps]

I notice a lot of advertising going on for the Z10... Not sure as to how much its gonna cost the company... I thought the company's plan is to cut costs???

[BThunderW]

The advertising is done partly by the carriers. Do some research instead wasting time trolling. If you have nothing to contribute, don't post.

I notice a lot of advertising going on for the Z10... Not sure as to how much its gonna cost the company... I thought the company's plan is to cut costs???

[Shanerredflag]

Call me a dreamer, a fanatic, a fool or whatever, I'm just buying some RIM shares right now.
While I think it can't really hurt me and I may have a delicious surprise in,say, 5 years, I'm not doing this in a speculative vision, just a support action. As my savings are low, I'll not spend a lot, so maybe I'll buy only 5.

How many of us (and friends) can afford this ? I don't know ...
But if we actively buzz this, it may ... oh, yes, I'm a dreamer...
But just imagine 10% of BB users claiming five shares ...

P.S: Yes, I'm a part of the 99% : I have no other share anywhere.

Disclaimer : buying shares is a high risk action that must not be done unless the money you engage is under 5% of your personal liquid assets. By no mean I intend to forecast a raise of the shares or any kind of advantage. Be aware that You can lose everything and I won't be responsible for this in any circumstance.

Edited 09/22/2012 : The original title "I support RIM : I buy share" was misleading many contributors. As of date, I modified my #1 post title and ask mods for the thread title change with : "I support RIM and I buy share". Slight difference, but I believe it gives another meaning to this sentence, closer to my opinion.

Edited 02/04/2013 : RIM have changed their name to BlackBerry. Therefore, the title change to "I support BBRY and I buy shares !". P.S : This change is subject to mod appreciation so that it may not appear clearly in the forum ... (done : THANK YOU whoever is pressing the button !)

So...this was over a year and a half ago (sorry, not meant to isolate the participant... )....OP looked past the herd... 5000+ posts later people have engaged, contributed and taken part but most of all learned (and are continuing to do so) in a life skill that is truly important...even if one never takes part it is important to understand how this works because "the market" shapes our lives whether you like it or not.
WELL DONE SuperFyly_FR!!!

PS...only 45000 to go

[Whitecaps]

The advertising is done partly by the carriers. Do some research instead wasting time trolling. If you have nothing to contribute, don't post.

Ouch, so emotional... Wonder why...

[BThunderW]

I made money on this slide. So I might be a bit yeah. And now you're blocked, get lost Troll.

Ouch, so emotional... Wonder why...

[Shanerredflag]

the sales numbers could very well be weak coz theres its not even on sale in the US! except for that anonymous telecom company selling the z10 for ridiculous $999

Not to worry...you can get one next month on a plan for much less...in the US

[Whitecaps]

I made money on this slide. So I might be a bit yeah. And now you're blocked, get lost Troll.

Wow... traitor much? you and ur gangs shorted blackberry stock today???

[Shanerredflag]

Wow... traitor much? you and ur gangs shorted blackberry stock today???

Bye..nice seeing you...haven’t you got mid terms or something?

[kfh227]

the question is how much money did Blackberry make off the launch of Z10??? if at all..

Just wait for the financials.

If RIMM made X devcies last quarter and sold all of them to carriers, that will make a nice bump to FCF. Capex is almost a non issue. They are not doing the actually manufacturing so capex won't be changed much (I think).

I'll skip FCf comments. I don't know if they sell them to carriers and book the cash at that point or if they are at carriers on consignment till they actually sell.

OK, I'll comment on FCF. If carriers actually buy the phones, that means BBRY sold 2 million or so. If each contributes $100 to free cash flow, that is $200,000,000 in extra free cash flows. That would be a nice jump of 40% from the last quarter and/or same quarter last year.

I just don't see it the way "analysts" see it. Eventually, millions will be sold and Free Cash Flow will be greatly impacted.

NOTE: When looking at Free Cash Flow, note that development costs were efecting this metric for the past several years. It is considered (and ongoing).

[Shanerredflag]

^^yes^^...

[kfh227]

What chrysaurora says makes tons of sense. It is psychology.

Consider lines at stores at Christmas time. At Target, there was one large queue at my local store. There is a reason for this.

Consider two scenarios.
1) There are 5 registers open. You are in line with 4 people at one regiser (queue). You are in line for 4 minutes. It moves once every minute. It's a minute but it feels long.
2) There are 5 registers open. But there is one queue with 20 people in it. It is constantly moving. It doesn't feel long because it keeps moving.

There is a reason places like Homegoods does this. It makes for a happy consumer.

Blackberry would be well advised to do frequent updates up front. Even weekly. This is tough regarding software development (I know, I do it for a living), but it is in fact possible. Agile development is probably being used, but granularity can always be adjusted to satisfy the requirements of other departments within an organization.

Back on topic. Frequent updates, even if monior, provide the illusion that things are constantly evolving for the better. Do this every 3 months, and people will be pissed.

It is perfectly reasonable to expect updates every 6 weeks in software development. 4 weeks is making things tough, but doable. It's honestly hard to get updates out any faster. And if testing fails hard in one iteration, an entire iteration might simply need to be skipped and 1 or 2 future iterations cold be impacted.

Enough rambling. Just some insights from a software engineer/investor/fan of business.

Of course, they are working. I am just reiterating that point. Key to BlackBerry's comeback is how fast it is able to respond to user-feedback (both reported bugs and requested enhancements). For a first gen device, BlackBerry 10 is already phenomenal. In my opinion, it is better than iPhone and Android (I don't use many apps, so lack of certain apps like NetFlix make no difference to me personally but I want those apps to be in-there so that I can get my friends to try it too). That said, there are a few inconsistencies or bugs in the OS (admittedly, the bugs are very few for a first gen OS) and if BlackBerry fixed these issues in next few weeks, I think it'd become the best smartphone EVER!

If they don't fix them quickly, their customers (coming from BB 7) are going to complain. And media will play it up like nobody's business. Media is not going to realize that BB 6/7 users are just nitpicking. They'll just say something like ' even current BlackBerry users are disappointed by BlackBerry 10' or something along those lines. So, it's imperative for BlackBerry to address these issues as fast as possible.


It's been a tough last few days for sure. But too late to sell now. Just wait for it to come back


Yes, I agree. But they could start releasing incremental updates. Say, release OS fixes for top 5 issues every weekend or every other weekend and so on. Instead of releasing one update with lots of fixes 2 months later. This way, current BlackBerry 10 users will have (at-least) some of the issues fixed right away and start enjoying their device even MORE!
Sure, weekly release or bi-weekly release might add some overhead to development cycle but that overhead is more than offset by happier customers!

Really, the key to BlackBerry's success and turn-around is simply this: respond to end-user feedback as fast as possible. Monthly OS updates/patches will be good, bi-weekly updates will be even better (at least until 90% of the initial bugs have been fixed). Once this happens, stock will take care of itself. Nobody will be able to stop or hide the awesomeness of a BlackBerry 10 device.

[kfh227]

I notice a lot of advertising going on for the Z10... Not sure as to how much its gonna cost the company... I thought the company's plan is to cut costs???

1) Advertising budget is $1 to $1.4 billion for the next year from what i have read. This is huge seeing that Apple's ad budget peaked at $700 million from what I;ve read.
2) For an understanding of what RIMM's cost cutting is all about, understand that they are a 20 year old comapny that never restructured it's internal operations. There were alot of people with overlapping job duties that spent 20 hours a week doing actual work. Take two of these people and make them one that does 40 hours a weak, and you save money especially when you do this with thousands of people. If you actually desire to learn, read about LEAN manufacturing than abstract it such that you realize it can be applied to many areas of business.

[kfh227]

The advertising is done partly by the carriers. Do some research instead wasting time trolling. If you have nothing to contribute, don't post.

She asked an honest question but having read the posters comments in the past, I think the poster need to do what you say. Actually spend time looking into things that we are telling them to read about. I think it was Warren Buffet, or maybe Prem Watsa or Charlie Munger that said they do not know a single super wealthy person that does not constantly read. Reading/learning is fundamental to wealth. You can also seee multimillionaries that enter the poor house and realize that they were lucky and didn't read much. Like this shmuck: David A. Siegel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[kfh227]

I made money on this slide. So I might be a bit yeah. And now you're blocked, get lost Troll.

Hey, where's the "don't like" hyper link?