[morlock_man]

I'm going out on a limb here to say we'll set a new 52 week high tomorrow.... err today?

[Shanerredflag]

^^hope so^^

[fedakd]

kfh227,

I read all your articles from this website on Blackberry - Absolutely amazing work here! I didn't remember your username from gurufocus, but am definitely happy to see you on these boards. I couldn't agree more with your perspective and sentiments on Blackberry. Currently trading around book value with all of the revenue streams this company has makes little to no sense. It still is a good buy, even here IMHO.

When you consider the following:

- Large volume sales from legacy BB7 OS Devices
- High margin revenue from Z10 sales
- NFC (Visa) revenues (Blackberry was selected to provide security for this service)
- BES10 revenues
- QNX Revenues
- "The internet of things" ;-)
- Potential licensing deals

All it takes is guidance from the CEO after Q4 earnings on March 28th and the cat will be out of the bag on everything above. That's not to say an impending squeeze doesn't drive this stock price up first. It's quite amazing watching shares get chewed up and the SP rebounding (sometimes almost instantly) during intraday trading. The bulls are too strong here, and the bears (shorts) must be doubling down and planning further "exit attempts"... Manipulation at its finest, particularly with the media to create the notion of "bad news". They really are trapped in a house of pain here. The doors are locked, there is no key...and a small fire is slowly beginning to burn.

As I have said before, I don't know why it is not in the $20s by now. It is easily worth $40...

I wrote this in July of 2012:
Time to Buy Research In Motion? - GuruFocus.com

From Article:

[kfh227]

I'm going out on a limb here to say we'll set a new 52 week high tomorrow.... err today?

NYC is getting hit by a big snow storm starting in the afternoon. Those hard working millionaires can't dare work on such a day. I expect almost no stock movement in general and lower than average volumes in general.

[W Hoa]

The January 2014 calls at the 22 strike are trading for about 20 cents.

You would have made out very well indeed.

[kfh227]

You would have made out very well indeed.

Oh, I have ;-) Still sitting on them. My only regret is not doing more. But at the time, I didn't want to invest more than I was willing to loose. So,m even in hindsight i did the right thing. If I put all my money into those, I'd have retired by now. A thought I try to ignore as it wouldn't have been prudent.

[duckJAI]

You would have made out very well indeed.

At the time it was 0.20 cents, how long ago was that and what was the underlying price of RIMM/BBRY?

[kfh227]

fedakd,

I keep forgetting about that NFC deal. I wonder what the specifics are behind it in terms of revenue sharing. 10% would be nice.

[chrysaurora]

At the time it was 0.20 cents, how long ago was that and what was the underlying price of RIMM/BBRY?

I think this was just 4-6 months ago and RIMM was priced between $6 to $7. At that time, I didn't even have a trading account. I wish I had developed interest in stock trading earlier too! Oh well, I got in when the stock was < $11 so I am still making out okay.

[W Hoa]

At the time it was 0.20 cents, how long ago was that and what was the underlying price of RIMM/BBRY?

If you read post #4302 and the article that it links to all will be revealed.

[kfh227]

At the time it was 0.20 cents, how long ago was that and what was the underlying price of RIMM/BBRY?

Article posted on July 25, 2012 (Wednesday). Closing price on July 24, 2012 was $6.93 (from article).
.

[duckJAI]

I'm going to start looking at some LEAPS at a higher strike price of course.

I wouldn't mind putting some money that I can afford to lose on a few of those if the price is right.

[pooger]

My guess is $18 tomorrow. I don't think it will have the same 18.30 resistance this time around. Different situation this time.

[fedakd]

Based on what I've heard from several sources, we likely aren't giving enough weight to the NFC deal with VISA. When one considers the amount of transactions a platform such as VISA will be able to complete via mobile payment platforms in the coming years, we have a winner on our hands. It's also important to mention that mobile payment is more prominent in other parts of the world such as Europe and China. Canadians are still early adopters. As well, because the credentials will be managed securely via SIM cards, RIM will provide the encryption technology that will be utilized on any NFC supported mobile device with a SIM (sorry, this doesn't include you, iPhone)

fedakd,

I keep forgetting about that NFC deal. I wonder what the specifics are behind it in terms of revenue sharing. 10% would be nice.

[kfh227]

I'm going to start looking at some LEAPS at a higher strike price of course.

I wouldn't mind putting some money that I can afford to lose on a few of those if the price is right.

I took a look earlier. The highest strike out to 2014 is something like $1. Out to 2015 is even higher. When I wrote that article, it was really a once in a lifetime opportunity type thing.

DISCLAIMER:

Please be aware of the risks of trading options. If things don't work out for BBRY, I don't want to be held responsible. Having said that, do not put a single penny into options unless you are willing to loose the entire investment. Remember the Wisdom of Ben Graham:
in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine
Point being, just because ABC corp should be selling for $100 doesn't mean it will.

At this point, it's a little safer doing in the money call options.

Instead of buying the stock for $16, get some long dated calls at the $7 strike. They should be just over $9 each. Thing is, if the stock goes to $32, you would have doubled your money (100% gain) with stock. Those options would be worth $23 though. So options would have returned 155%.

Just something to consider.

[jhill396]

So I'm kinda new to the stock market so I gotta ask a rookie question. The phones succes won't effect the share price until an earning report right? So if I buy now the share price will increase after an earnings report is released? That is if the phone is successful

[anon(757282)]

Seems like the sentiment (and that deep feeling we all have) of BlackBerry success is being supported by the early reports of sales of BB10 devices and positive reviews of the hardware and OS. It looks like BlackBerry has left RIM behind and is charting a new course to success, and we're along for the ride. Even the lack of the Z10 in the US is creating a feeling of envy in the news reports.

Can ya believe it, Z10 is the new Coors Beer?!

[Superfly_FR]

Good morning gang !
I can smell the blast of a wonderful trading day ... let the show begin !

[Superfly_FR]

So I'm kinda new to the stock market so I gotta ask a rookie question. The phones succes won't effect the share price until an earning report right? So if I buy now the share price will increase after an earnings report is released? That is if the phone is successful

That's the angle "we" (I and several other) have here. That seems logical.

BUT be aware that the stock market does not rely only on this.
Basically, what a trader wants is buy/sell the stock to gain money @ each transaction. What an investor wants is the stock value to raise and dividends (Earnings Per Share - EPS) to be remunerative.
This can result in stock value variations (up/down) that are driven by the "street consensus", itself alimented by "news" but also by strategies, that are very difficult to read for us rookies.

What I'd tend to respond to your question is : If you think BlackBerry will be successful (i.e : sell phones and services with profits) within a timeframe of 2-3 years, then yes, you can estimate that the share value is going to raise within that time frame. I suggest you have a look at the firsts pages of this thread, you'll find there a lot of pro/cons that might enlighten your decision.

In all cases : NEVER invest more than you can afford to lose (1 single 'o', lesson learned lol) 100%, witch is generally said to be 15% of your available money : Never borrow or break your savings to invest a stock, furthermore on a single (and currently very volatile) value.

[austriker]

I must say options on bbry seem like a great game right now

[AlexejKir]

Several points before opening. I do think we could go above 17,50 today, however, in my opinion, the 18$ is a very strong resistance which we will not break yet - UAE opening on monday, might not be enough to push this over that 18$ barrier. 52week high is never an easy one to crack.

I might be looking into closing my position and waiting for a pull back before entering long again.

This is of course short term outlook, in long term I believe we are all bullish over here

[world traveler and former ceo]

just the beginning for what will be a strong year for Blackberry!

[Charles Martin1]

Good morning gang !
I can smell the blast of a wonderful trading day ... let the show begin !

Looks like the BULLS drove the BEARS out of the Berry patch...LOL

[bk1022]

So I'm kinda new to the stock market so I gotta ask a rookie question. The phones succes won't effect the share price until an earning report right? So if I buy now the share price will increase after an earnings report is released? That is if the phone is successful

The phone's successs or lack thereof will definitely affect the stock price before the earnings report. There will be a number of leaks prior to any official news releases, and they will affect the stock price. Also, analysts / economists have plenty of proxy metrics for numbers that would otherwise be unavailable. They will know things before you. People who know things before you typically preposition in the market and dump the position as the news breaks (buy on rumour sell on news).

Anyway, the problem with BB right now is that there is a "breakup number" that suggests BB's value if they were to sell parts of the company. The stock price has shown resistance at precisely that level. Once (or if) the perceived synergistic / organic value exceeds the breakup value, the stock will easily break through its current ceiling. Dunno if that will ever happen though. My best estimate so far is that BB's expectations were low and the launch has only been a moderate success subject to take up in more markets as time goes on. You know the middle east had big adoption because governments could not easily snoop, but that is untrue for Z10.

[plasmid_boy]

You know the middle east had big adoption because governments could not easily snoop, but that is untrue for Z10.

Is that true, even if you're running through BES?