[sentimentGX4]

anyone else sees the Head and Shoulders?

I had suggested this a couple days ago; but, its likely not a simple head and shoulders at this point. The price is too high and the time span is too quick for the third shoulder. (Even if the stock did go into a downtrend at this point, it'd only vaguely represent a head and shoulders.) I still see other potential negative formations; but, would rather not risk the probability of misleading investors.

[coldsword]

Apple Shares Jump on Buyback Rumors: Winners & Losers
looks like this is the reason of dropping today.

BlackBerry (BBRY_) shares fell 1.1% to $15.85 on reports that initial sales of the BlackBerry Z10 aren't all they've been cracked up to be.

BlackBerry has touted that the Z10 is seeing switches from other devices, but some analysts on Wall Street note stores are only being stocked with a handful of devices, as opposed to hundreds or thousands.

Canaccord Genuity's Mike Walkley noted that most stores in the U.K., where the device was first launched, received less than 15 units, and were sold over a few days. "Our surveys revealed that while most sales representatives acknowledged the Z10 was a marked improvement versus older BB 7 devices, initial sales were driven by pent-up demand from loyal BlackBerry users," Walkley wrote in his note.

-- Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York

[morlock_man]

I think that movement just then was a step change. Shouldn't drop below $16 again.

Theory being tested now.

[pooger]

I'd like to know how 31% of the float is going to cover their short before the next conference call. This is a long term play, and try not to forget that with whatever price levels your TA tells you to buy and sell at.

Rest assured that momentum is positive, analysts are raising estimates and flipping over to BUY ratings. This thing will melt up all year. Don't concern yourself with minor profit taking over the next couple of weeks.
Following are rough numbers:
60% of the stock is owned through instituations which will be expected to own BBRY come window dressing time. They aren't selling.
10% owned by Prem Watsa
10% owned by Mike and Jim
5% owned by Primecap. They've owned it the entire time, doubt they are selling.

This means there is likely only 15% of the float that is currently residing with liquid sellers. I am one of those and let me tell you I am not selling this for a long time. Short sellers are going to need stock that isn't available if/when they are wrong and you could take part in the squeeze or you could concern yourself with scraping points.

Truth. The covering of shorts is going to drive up the price insanely. All the bulls need is a very strong $ figure of sales history and we're off like a rocket.

[BB Fightclub]

I doubt that IT managers from the big companies (banks, oil, insurance, health, law, government, etc) are going to be standing in line down at the Radio Shack or a mall kiosk. I'm sure BB reserved some phones for them.

[BBNation]

News from RIM, Very good..


WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb 6, 2013) - BlackBerry� (BBRY)(BB.TO) today issued the following statement:

"In Canada, yesterday was the best day ever for the first day of a launch of a new BlackBerry smartphone. In fact, it was more than 50% better than any other launch day in our history in Canada," said Thorsten Heins, President & CEO of BlackBerry. "In the UK, we have seen close to three times our best performance ever for the first week of sales for a BlackBerry smartphone."

[pooger]

lol do you guys see the spike in volume about 30 min ago?

[Superfly_FR]

Looks like ou "BB" (B�B� is Baby) is starting to make his nights
$16 range, waiting for the US launch is a nice area to stand above.

[lcjr]

Truth. The covering of shorts is going to drive up the price insanely. All the bulls need is a very strong $ figure of sales history and we're off like a rocket.

You really think so? I've been hearing this for a while now, but since the launch we haven't seen any rockets going off and since the start of sales we have seen a roller coaster. I'm hoping they do take off, but don't think they will for quite some time.

[anon(5624621)]

Looks like ou "BB" (B�B� is Baby) is starting to make his nights
$16 range, waiting for the US launch is a nice area to stand above.

haha, il fait ses nuits doesn't really translate

[savingblackberry]

We all should buy shares, shorts get screwed, they cover and stop spreading lies.

[pooger]

You really think so? I've been hearing this for a while now, but since the launch we haven't seen any rockets going off and since the start of sales we have seen a roller coaster. I'm hoping they do take off, but don't think they will for quite some time.

I'm not claiming that sales is amazing. I've no access to numbers like that. I'm only saying that if there are very good sales numbers, then the matter of the stock price going up will probably be quick.

[lcjr]

I'm not claiming that sales is amazing. I've no access to numbers like that. I'm only saying that if there are very good sales numbers, then the matter of the stock price going up will probably be quick.

I sure hope you're right partner. I guess time will tell. I wish us all great success.

[chrysaurora]

I am waiting for short squeeze to occur too! Been waiting a while now

[StormieTwo]

You really think so? I've been hearing this for a while now, but since the launch we haven't seen any rockets going off and since the start of sales we have seen a roller coaster. I'm hoping they do take off, but don't think they will for quite some time.

BB10 hasn't launched in the US yet. I really wouldn't expect it before then. the next quarterly report is still expected to have negative EPS. I might expect (total speculation) the squeeze to come between March and June. if you go to wikipedia and look up short squeeze you'll find some background info that is interesting.

if you go here: Volkswagen AG St | Equity | 766400 | DE0007664005 | B�rse Frankfurt (Frankfurt Stock Exchange), and click on the ten year graph you'll see what a short squeeze can do. I'd suggest zooming in on 2008 and draw your attention to the sudden drop in value before the squeeze actually happened. The Shorts were trying to kill the stock before it ate their entire portfolios/careers/homes etc.

LONG live Blackberry!

[dusdal]

Needing something to replace the Bloomberg application from my Bold, I dig up this one BlackBerry World - Stocks BlackBerry 10

So far so good. Real time updates on select exchanges. Very simple. Uses active frames for live updates which is pretty cool.

Wish it were built with cascades, but it does what it needs to.

[pooger]

if you go here: Volkswagen AG St | Equity | 766400 | DE0007664005 | B�rse Frankfurt (Frankfurt Stock Exchange), and click on the ten year graph you'll see what a short squeeze can do. I'd suggest zooming in on 2008 and draw your attention to the sudden drop in value before the squeeze actually happened. The Shorts were trying to kill the stock before it ate their entire portfolios/careers/homes etc.

Wow that thing was epic. Stock jumped to 4.5x in 2 days. That would mean from today's BBRY price to $70 a share. LOL

Right now the shorts are still betting that RIM will not sell phones and will fail. Well if RIM shows in concrete fashion (numbers) that they sold some large number of phones at some point in the next few months, nobody can doubt that kind of figure anymore, so most people who are shorting will get out, which means a lot of shares purchased and then a big boom to the stock price.

[lcjr]

I'm just very impatient. I've got my play money tied up in this and could be using it to make quick money in other stocks. Just for fun though, not as an income. I know Blackberry stock will rise but it's going to take until April probably to get back to the 19.00 mark. Just a guess on my uneducated and amatuer point of view.

[chrysaurora]

#NoSleepTillShortSqueeze

[duckJAI]

For any type of short squeeze to happen, there needs to be a catalyst to induce the price of BBRY.

It won't happen out of nowhere imo, it would be after a earnings conference, or some factual sales numbers that will put all the negativity that BBRY is back in the game.

Then, we will see a short squeeze. And I don't think that will happen anytime soon. If anything, after March 28th earning call.

[m0de25]

Wow that thing was epic. Stock jumped to 4.5x in 2 days. That would mean from today's BBRY price to $70 a share. LOL

Right now the shorts are still betting that RIM will not sell phones and will fail. Well if RIM shows in concrete fashion (numbers) that they sold some large number of phones at some point in the next few months, nobody can doubt that kind of figure anymore, so most people who are shorting will get out, which means a lot of shares purchased and then a big boom to the stock price.

Don't underestimate the power that these 130M shorted shares have... I'd rather not have this cloud over our heads trying to jump on and twist every single morsel into morsels of negativity. Everyone on both sides pretty much expects that the Z10 will sell relatively well out of the gate, so even if BlackBerry's numbers are good at the report, the "Short sighted" media will claim that most of these will have come from the 79M subscriber base that was itching for 2 years for this launch. And even if "40% of initial Z10 purchasers are from iPhone and Android", the shorts will scream that these were likely from BB defectors (that dumped BB in the past, but are now coming back for various reasons)

What we need is increased subscriber base, not necessarily "sell-outs of a long overdue model in known BB regions". What we need are headlines that Enterprises and Gov't entities such as the U.S Customs and Immigration Agency are back on board.

[rocdynasty]

For any type of short squeeze to happen, there needs to be a catalyst to induce the price of BBRY.

It won't happen out of nowhere imo, it would be after a earnings conference, or some factual sales numbers that will put all the negativity that BBRY is back in the game.

Then, we will see a short squeeze. And I don't think that will happen anytime soon. If anything, after March 28th earning call.

thats if there isnt a 20% dive like that last call. that one seemed good with after hours going up 10% and then i think it dropped 23% the next day. BB has a recent history of bombing situations when the spotlight is on....

[duckJAI]

thats if there isnt a 20% dive like that last call. that one seemed good with after hours going up 10% and then i think it dropped 23% the next day.

If you were a hedge fund manager and were shorting BBRY and knew you were in trouble, would you not call all the other hedgefunds that are shorting BBRY to try and take the stock down as much as possible so you and all other shorting the stock can exit the position and minimize loses?

Foes become friends in this instance and I can guarantee that the hedgefunds will drive BBRY down as much as possible to shake ALL weak hands. They pick up shares for cheaper and exit their short position for less of a loss. That's at least one possible scenario and more likely one that I see happening.

OR,

A great Q2 earnings report or sale #s that have factual data behind them that blow expectations out of the water (like NFLX).

I can only see these 2 scenarios happening imo, and it won't be for a while.

[Marc_Paradise]

Remember that the most of the shorts are in it for the long haul. Long term, they still believe it's going to pay off to stay short -- so they will.

A little bump isn't going to shake them loose. I suspect the catalyst we need will be two successive quarters of beating expectations significantly, with the second quarter notably better than the first. Consider that many have been shorted from as far back as last July, if not even earlier. Minor fluctuations won't do it for them. And yes - I consider 25% in 2 days a minor fluctuation, in light of the fact that just last week we went *down* 25% in two days.

If you want the short squeeze, be prepared to stick out for the long haul. 2-4 months and only on very good news is my guess. Which - for most of you - shouldn't be a problem, given the title of the thread. THis isn't a "quick buck" - it's an investment. (I post this as much to remind myself - I spend way too much time checking on this ticker price )



And the VW short squeeze was a special case - there's a reason it only happened once in history, so I wouldn't expect a 100% increase when/if we do see the squeeze

[OMGitworks]

News from RIM, Very good..


WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb 6, 2013) - BlackBerry� (BBRY)(BB.TO) today issued the following statement:

"In Canada, yesterday was the best day ever for the first day of a launch of a new BlackBerry smartphone. In fact, it was more than 50% better than any other launch day in our history in Canada," said Thorsten Heins, President & CEO of BlackBerry. "In the UK, we have seen close to three times our best performance ever for the first week of sales for a BlackBerry smartphone."

It is going to be hard to get traction or stock movement by sales #'s. If that is the entire press release, BBRY is smart not to release raw numbers. As soon as they do, the press will (rightly or wrongly) say that is great but is 1/10 or whatever is was of early iPhone sales. This will all be true, but somewhat misleading and be taken as a negative. It is the catch 22 BBRY finds itself in.