[BBNation]

Big news causes stocks to go up. Considering the stock is actually declining at the end of the day, I would say that is barely news.
RIM already said they would be spending 1 Billion on marketing, so we were expecting nothing less than lots of lots of marketing, and a superbowl ad was pretty much expected.

If you were going to argue about major news before launch, at least use a real example, like the early release of BES 10 this week. But even that we knew was in the pipeline and was coming. So it was news, but still not "major" news.
Admit it, RIM isn't going to be announcing any major new until January 30th. I want my Smirnoff (non-cyber version s'il vous plait).

The funny thing bes10 was big news which enables 250000 bes installs around the world to manage all platforms but stock did not move. all comapnies needs bes10 now to manage bb10 and not many companies will offer bb10 without it so it was big news but stock did not move at all. I was surprised that why rim did not wait until jan30th to announce bes10, lots of businnesss would be watching it..I am puzzled

[BBNation]

Well, he said "we will be investing heavily in marketing and the launch, ....but I do not see it dropping below a number of about $2 Billion (from about $2.9 Billion)."
Of course his number includes other things as well, but he emphasis does sound like lots of marketing is coming. E.g. Jan 30 launch, SuperBowl Ad, BlackBerry Experience Events, BlackBerry Jam, training (which is kind of like marketing since store reps need to know about BB10 to try and sell it)

All BlackBerry All the Time: RIM is Investing $1 Billion into the BB10 Launch

After watching that video, another couple of interesting things he mentioned is:
BES will be available Q1. Which since it came out this week, is on time. Makes me wonder why people were thinking it would be out later in Spring/Summer
Qwerty phones are going to be out a few weeks after the touch. Makes it sound "very very soon". So excited!!

As for the guy at the end, I don't know what he is gibber jabbering about........lol.

Just to correct bes10 supposed to release in June, confirmed by rim rep. the companies still need bes5 and manage all old bbs until rim release service pack 1 to consolidate all platforms in 1 package bes10

[Andrew4life]

Just to correct bes10 supposed to release in June, confirmed by rim rep. the companies still need bes5 and manage all old bbs until rim release service pack 1 to consolidate all platforms in 1 package bes10

In the video Thor said BES10 will be out in Q1.
March - May is Q1.
I think people are getting confused with the different additional features of BES10 that will be added on later.
Either way, we've got BES10 up and ready for people to start installing and a simple upgrade should be easy later in the year.

[morlock_man]

So, the short interest is still super high...

[morganplus8]

Well, I thought I would post another simple chart to show everyone what happened last week:



As you can see, we have followed the trendlines to a tee, we haven't voided anything even though it looked like we might in Canada on Monday. It turns out the since the beginning of this rally, starting the previous week at $ 11.50/shr, we have traded precisely above the 5-dma, tracking it flawlessly and setting us up for an interesting Monday next week!

What is so important above Monday is the rate of climb in the 5-dma meaning that we need to open up in the morning and climb higher all day to avoid breaking down on this support line. It is possible that RIMM stock could open down and break through support at the $ 17.40 area, but let's assume it holds this line and at least gains something close to $ 18.00/shr. RIMM can hit $ 19.00/shr and still remain within the boundaries of the channel, and it can stay within the channel all week and possibly hit $ 20.00/shr at the end of the week. But in order for it to climb out of this channel within the next few days, we would need some help from the shorts for the first time. A breakout above that upper channel line is rarely ever done but it can be done like Netflix on news and you all know we are getting some news here.

For the record, I hold a monster block of stock and a pile of calls on RIMM at this point and I don't plan on selling anything until at least Wednesday when I see/hear the news. We don't have to sell on the news here, we could actually trend where we are for a few days and rally hard after that. Fun times in uncharted waters anyone?? I personally like the sound of $ 25.00/shr!!

[Andrew4life]

For the record, I hold a monster block of stock and a pile of calls on RIMM at this point and I don't plan on selling anything until at least Wednesday when I see/hear the news. We don't have to sell on the news here, we could actually trend where we are for a few days and rally hard after that. Fun times in uncharted waters anyone?? I personally like the sound of $ 25.00/shr!!

I wish I had the money for a monster block of stock on RIM. The amount of money I invested last month would have taken 6 years as a GIC to grow to the same amount. I did that all in 6 weeks!

[StormieTwo]

I'm still Loooong. With a 3-year Handset cycle very common in N.A. it will take that long for BB to fully penetrate the market. iOS will be 7.0 this year and aapl will have to pull a rabbit out of its hat to make their hyrbid kernel do anything other then incrimental improvments. In 3 years they'll need new architecture or they'll be suffering the same way RIM has been suffering. Android will continue to grow market share, and get better but they will always have the security issue and OS stablility will become more important as we move into the M2M era.

[morganplus8]

I'm still Loooong. With a 3-year Handset cycle very common in N.A. it will take that long for BB to fully penetrate the market. iOS will be 7.0 this year and aapl will have to pull a rabbit out of its hat to make their hyrbid kernel do anything other then incrimental improvments. In 3 years they'll need new architecture or they'll be suffering the same way RIM has been suffering. Android will continue to grow market share, and get better but they will always have the security issue and OS stablility will become more important as we move into the M2M era.

Thanks for this great post, I have been preaching this forever!!!

The only thing that can save AAPL is to partner up with RIMM, lease their OS and build that 4.5 inch screen they are thinking about!!!!

I personally think Apple is in a whole lot of trouble here.

[timmy t]

MorganPlus8, I was wondering if you could clear up some basic problems I am having understanding call options.
If I have an option that expires on Sept 21, 2013 and I want to exercise that option, what happens?
How do I pay for it if I am just leveraging and putting the premium up? Do I have to turn around and sell it immediately?
Is there a cost to doing it that way? What I mean is, is there another fee to turn around and sell it?

[timmy t]

I'm still Loooong. With a 3-year Handset cycle very common in N.A. it will take that long for BB to fully penetrate the market. iOS will be 7.0 this year and aapl will have to pull a rabbit out of its hat to make their hyrbid kernel do anything other then incrimental improvments. In 3 years they'll need new architecture or they'll be suffering the same way RIM has been suffering. Android will continue to grow market share, and get better but they will always have the security issue and OS stablility will become more important as we move into the M2M era.

How do you know they are not redeveloping the OS now in secret?

[TomJasper]

The only thing that can save AAPL is to partner up with RIMM, lease their OS and build that 4.5 inch screen they are thinking about!!!!

I personally think Apple is in a whole lot of trouble here.

The AAPL die hard management find it too hard to wrap their heads around that concept, at least for now,they will come to their senses soon enough. I'm sure Lenova shot across the bow might have been a wake up call of how the landscape could change in a nano second.

M2M likes RIM RTOS, something AAPL can only get in the true form from RIM. They bypassed NFC, bypassing M2M would be a disaster in the making, yet another reason to put pride aside and think with logic.

With the move away from PC's RIM RTOS is well positioned, AAPL is not with their iOS, writing is on the wall, just as it was for RIM at one time.

[TomJasper]

How do you know they are not redeveloping the OS now in secret?

Lol, unless AAPL bought RIM's QNX (micro kernel RTOS) without RIM knowing , it does not matter what AAPL builds "in secret" with their hybrid kernel", lol.

[StormieTwo]

I don't know, but looking back at the iOS cycle i notice that they updated every twelve months for the first four, then they slipped to 18 months on OS5. OS6 was 12 months again. now OS7 needs to come out in 6 months to get back on schedule and have the "rabbit" to boot. Without the guiding hand and driving force of Steve Jobs thats a very tall order indeed. Add in the fact that apples 'walled garden' approach limits their ability to deeply integrate with non-apple hardware since they can't control it. and think of the rebellion that the apple faithful will have if apple tells them 'we're switching to a new eco-system, and it's not compatible with the apps you have, so buy new ones.' BB never really had a BBOS eco-system (more of a green-house) and have the advantage of seeing what apple and android built.

[TomJasper]

MorganPlus8, I was wondering if you could clear up some basic problems I am having understanding call options.
If I have an option that expires on Sept 21, 2013 and I want to exercise that option, what happens?
How do I pay for it if I am just leveraging and putting the premium up? Do I have to turn around and sell it immediately?
Is there a cost to doing it that way? What I mean is, is there another fee to turn around and sell it?

Investopedia

Just use the search box at the above link, tons of info and tons of easy to follow video's.

[TomJasper]

I don't know, but looking back at the iOS cycle i notice that they updated every twelve months for the first four, then they slipped to 18 months on OS5. OS6 was 12 months again. now OS7 needs to come out in 6 months to get back on schedule and have the "rabbit" to boot. Without the guiding hand and driving force of Steve Jobs thats a very tall order indeed. Add in the fact that apples 'walled garden' approach limits their ability to deeply integrate with non-apple hardware since they can't control it. and think of the rebellion that the apple faithful will have if apple tells them 'we're switching to a new eco-system, and it's not compatible with the apps you have, so buy new ones.' BB never really had a BBOS eco-system (more of a green-house) and have the advantage of seeing what apple and android built.

Their hybrid kernel architecture has limits, imho they have hit a wall, sprucing up the UI at this point is not enough.

[timmy t]

Investopedia

Just use the search box at the above link, tons of info and tons of easy to follow video's.

Do you seriously think I haven't looked already?

[StormieTwo]

Lol, unless AAPL bought RIM's QNX (micro kernel RTOS) without RIM knowing , it does not matter what AAPL builds "in secret" with their hybrid kernel", lol.

now hold on there Tom, apples hybrid kernel has proven to be a very good system, and android is based on linux (a millions monkeys with a million keyboards will eventually write a masterpiece), Apple could figure out a way to interface with non-core hardware and still maintain control. I don't think Tim Cook is the man to do it though.

[timmy t]

Their hybrid kernel architecture has limits, imho they have hit a wall, sprucing up the UI at this point is not enough.

So no other micro-kernels exist or can be developed?

[TomJasper]

Do you seriously think I haven't looked already?

Wow, just trying to help ya out buddy,my mistake obviously.

[TomJasper]

So no other micro-kernels exist or can be developed?

Not is short order. Look how long it took RIM to build a whole new OS based on QNX, look at how much RIM bled because of that. Time is not a luxury in the tech industry my friend. Sure AAPL has money enough to take a vacation, yet that vacation will cost dearly, you seriously think their shareholders are keen for more haircuts that started at $700 ,lol. The fund managers at AAPL I'm sure are already looking for greener pastures, they would be incompetent not to be.

[derpOverflow]

I'll have to warn you guys against betting that Apple can't change the OS. The real problem is that if they do, people will complain that its too hard to use or looks ugly. They risk losing the interest of most of the people that buy their products. But if they don't change it, people will complain its too boring and that they aren't innovating enough. They'll start losing people who want something new and different. If they start making multiple iPhones to please different groups it will lose a lot of its luster and it won't be as easy to make apps for all the different screen sizes. Their walled garden could also be destroyed by companies moving to HTML5 and kids won't want to have the same stuff as their parents and grand-parents. There is a lot of risk to Apple but I think the technical issues are the least of them.

[StormieTwo]

So no other micro-kernels exist or can be developed?

lots of micro kernels exist but QNX has an advantage. its already embedded in millions of systems, from airports to electrical grids. and now rim has a secure way to interface with them all. no company/government in the world would take the risk of replacing a proven sytem with a 30 year track record of stability just so apple (or sombody else) can interface with it. Yeah, there might be a better kernel, but it will take years of infrastruture replacement to phase it in.

[sentimentGX4]

Channel lines are supposed to be parallel. I see a broadening formation and a potential head and shoulders.

[timmy t]

Not is short order. Look how long it took RIM to build a whole new OS based on QNX, look at how much RIM bled because of that. Time is not a luxury in the tech industry my friend. Sure AAPL has money enough to take a vacation, yet that vacation will cost dearly, you seriously think their shareholders are keen for more haircuts that started at $700 ,lol. The fund managers at AAPL I'm sure are already looking for greener pastures, they would be incompetent not to be.

First of all, Apple is one of the richest companies in the world. If some startup company in Ottawa can create a great micro kernel, I'm sure they can too. I don't know how long it would take but they may have started two or three years ago, for all we know.
Also, Apple hasn't even started to bleed yet so this development work would be going on while they are still extremely profitable and don't have to disclose to people what they are doing.
RIM waited too long before they started to re-write their system (which may turn out to be a blessing in disguise since they now have QNX as its underlying OS) and so the length of time it is taking has a much greater affect.

[timmy t]

Wow, just trying to help ya out buddy,my mistake obviously.

Sorry, but I have been reading about it and watching videos. There is one part that doesn't seem to get mentioned. Maybe it is obvious and I am just missing it or maybe I am assuming something that I shouldn't.
I just thought Morgan could clarify it instead of me watching more and more videos.