[cleacy]

Short interest numbers out now.

It's fallen from 137m to 135m as of January 15th, 2013. People aren't covering.

The price isn't that far off from the 52 week high. Day-traders might have been shorting recently/ closing out/ and then re-shorting, but not whoever the people are that have the bulk of the short position.

I've been thinking a bit about the "Buy the rumour, sell the news" axiom. I feel there's very good odds that the retail sale date of the BB10 it going to be announced as being just a couple days after it's presented (which would be a good thing). Next week is likely to be a *very* good week, and selling the 30th is really looking like a bad idea.

[Lehomer]

RIM to Air Its First Super Bowl Ad for BlackBerry 10 | Special: Super Bowl - Advertising Age

[mrfreetruth]

Wow its still 135,000,000 shares short. Short covering can push rim into $30's

[Shanerredflag]

And where do you see that or how do you calculate it?

I'm not sure where TomJasper gets it but most likely subscribed service...here is a link for Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Definition | Investopedia

[cleacy]

WOW! That's amazing news. I can't think of any better use of part of their marketing budget then a Superbowl Ad.

[chrysaurora]

It looks like Shorts are hoping that "weak hands"/ retail investors will get rid of stocks on Jan 29th or Jan 30th and drive the stock price down. Then, they can cover!
Big investors like Fairfax/Prem Watsa are unlikely to get rid of stock that early.

[drummer_god]

and so the pattern has been broken.
first friday in a few weeks that the stock didn't skyrocket into monday.
now i don't know what to expect monday?

[TomJasper]

Strong hands get rewarded.

Football anyone,lol?

112 million eyeballs will be watching.

[TomJasper]

Or today, oh well some have to do what they have to do.

It looks like Shorts are hoping that "weak hands"/ retail investors will get rid of stocks on Jan 29th or Jan 30th and drive the stock price down. Then, they can cover!
Big investors like Fairfax/Prem Watsa are unlikely to get rid of stock that early.

[TomJasper]

Andrew4life, bout that keg of Heineken bet Jan.14. you lost today on major news before launch (Superbowl ad) , no biggie, but you will at least have to send around some cyber beers.

See ya Monday

[Andrew4life]

Andrew4life, bout that keg of Heineken bet Jan.14. you lost today on major news before launch (Superbowl ad) , no biggie, but you will at least have to send around some cyber beers.

See ya Monday

Big news causes stocks to go up. Considering the stock is actually declining at the end of the day, I would say that is barely news.
RIM already said they would be spending 1 Billion on marketing, so we were expecting nothing less than lots of lots of marketing, and a superbowl ad was pretty much expected.

If you were going to argue about major news before launch, at least use a real example, like the early release of BES 10 this week. But even that we knew was in the pipeline and was coming. So it was news, but still not "major" news.
Admit it, RIM isn't going to be announcing any major new until January 30th. I want my Smirnoff (non-cyber version s'il vous plait).

[m0de25]

... RIM already said they would be spending 1 Billion on marketing, so we were expecting nothing less than lots of lots of marketing, and a superbowl ad was pretty much expected.

I'm pretty sure the billion is for the whole launch (actual hardware builds, delivery, training, etc... and marketing )

[Andrew4life]

I'm pretty sure the billion is for the whole launch (actual hardware builds, delivery, training, etc... and marketing )

Well, he said "we will be investing heavily in marketing and the launch, ....but I do not see it dropping below a number of about $2 Billion (from about $2.9 Billion)."
Of course his number includes other things as well, but he emphasis does sound like lots of marketing is coming. E.g. Jan 30 launch, SuperBowl Ad, BlackBerry Experience Events, BlackBerry Jam, training (which is kind of like marketing since store reps need to know about BB10 to try and sell it)

All BlackBerry All the Time: RIM is Investing $1 Billion into the BB10 Launch

After watching that video, another couple of interesting things he mentioned is:
BES will be available Q1. Which since it came out this week, is on time. Makes me wonder why people were thinking it would be out later in Spring/Summer
Qwerty phones are going to be out a few weeks after the touch. Makes it sound "very very soon". So excited!!

As for the guy at the end, I don't know what he is gibber jabbering about........lol.

[Geeoff]

I've been thinking a bit about the "Buy the rumour, sell the news" axiom. I feel there's very good odds that the retail sale date of the BB10 it going to be announced as being just a couple days after it's presented (which would be a good thing). Next week is likely to be a *very* good week, and selling the 30th is really looking like a bad idea.

These things make me really nervous. I have seen "buy the rumour, sell the news" happen so often for other companies that I am really expecting it.

However, RIM has really improved their marketing/communications so I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few extra announcements on January 31. I'll think I'll put in 10% stop-loss orders and then just see what happens.

[Marc_Paradise]

However, RIM has really improved their marketing/communications so I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few extra announcements on January 31. I'll think I'll put in 10% stop-loss orders and then just see what happens.

I think if you already have the stock and aren't trying to buy dips, that's the most sane thing you can do.

[BBNation]

Wow its still 135,000,000 shares short. Short covering can push rim into $30's

Shorts do not learn..do they ? Just see what happened to Netflix..from 60s to close to 170 in no time..from 100 to 170 in two days. RIM only has 600mil float so expect mid 30s if the squeeze happens..why do not Wasta and Jim buy few more millions and start squeeze..who know RIM might have plan to squeeze these suckers..

[Andrew4life]

Time for a short interest chart update!

The first chart is ~1 year, the second chart is ~6 months.
In the second chart I drew a couple of yellow lines to highlight that each time there was a major dip, it was not only due to people selling their stocks, it was due to people shorting the stock.
Notice that when you get to January when the shorts start to decline because they realize they can't win, the stock has shot up A LOT! We'll find out the January 31st short numbers in about half a month, hopefully by then, the stock is up to $30s!

Good things to come!

[damthrill]

So who was trying to tell me that the superbowl doesn't fit their demographic? I think that is one awesome advertising move, maybe RIMM read my previous post lol. Now I have a good reason to watch the superbowl, if I miss the add then I know i was too drunk...

[Shanerredflag]

I am not a mean person and truly hope no one gets hurt... BUT....MAN would I love to see an EPIC short squeeze that rockets this baby to the moon...just seems so fitting given this company's come back of the century

[crackerdoodle]

The stock price has a lot to do with the perception of the brand. An elevating stock price will create all sorts of hype ala apple. Now with apple crashing you are seeing all types of reports referring to "rotten apple" etc. The big money understands this and will hopefully initiate the mother of all squeezes, however, the battle will be intense. Good luck to all.

[InWithTheNew]

Listen people, if there is any truth to the rumor that both the full touch and qwerty will be available by Feb 5th, then there will be the mother of all shorts squeezes to come alive. People on the sidelines will kick themselves. If RIMM is thinking of making this launch EPIC then Thor will say something to the effect that "we listened, and we didn't want to leave out our die hard keyboard fans, and it's only fitting that we make the qwerty available on the same day."

Oh man, I'm just so excited.

[cjcampbell]

Listen people, if there is any truth to the rumor that both the full touch and qwerty will be available by Feb 5th, then there will be the mother of all shorts to come alive. People on the sidelines will kick themselves. If RIMM is thinking of making this launch EPIC then Thor will say something to the effect that "we listened, and we didn't want to leave out our die hard keyboard fans, and it's only fitting that we make the qwerty available on the same day."

Oh man, I'm just so excited.

Don't count on the QWERTY being launched at the same time.... the dev C's are being shipped after the launch so it'll be a bit before it's ready.

[Shanerredflag]

Don't count on the QWERTY being launched at the same time.... the dev C's are being shipped after the launch so it'll be a bit before it's ready.

True..."somewhat like" ...but there was no button for that. ...

Still hoping for a head fake and RIM blows our socks off

[InWithTheNew]

Don't count on the QWERTY being launched at the same time.... the dev C's are being shipped after the launch so it'll be a bit before it's ready.

Not counting on qwerty being available same day as full touch, but if RIM wanting to release the DeV C it would have already done so. What does releasing the Dev C help RIM accomplish? Im sure they don't want developers making apps with different screen sizes. For that reason I think the the whole Dev C thing is a fake out. Again to make this EPIC RIM will have to pull all stops. People are expecting that the leaks to date is all that RIM has. When I say all this I'm not talking the stock per se. I'm talking about the moment. This is has to be movie-like, and the way that life is writing it, it has everything falling exactly into place. All RIM has to do now is prove everyone wrong that they can surprise, and can rise above.

[cjcampbell]

True..."somewhat like" ...but there was no button for that. ...

Still hoping for a head fake and RIM blows our socks off

Ohhhh their will be some blow your socks off moments... don't you worry about that