View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1129. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    702 62.18%
  • No

    427 37.82%
  1. nukemango's Avatar
    Please elaborate on the signs you believe point to a sell off. Thanks.
    It's important to note that the stock has been rising largely based on speculation, actually almost entirely based on speculation. Up until 15$ you were able to look at RIM's financials and calculate that the company is actually worth very close to that amount on paper - so it was a relatively safe investment. Meaning that if everything collapses and it came down to a buyout you would get around $15 a share.

    Now that the stock is in the $18 range, there is nothing tangible to attribute that additional growth to. No increased sales, no specific strategy, no exact phone specs, etc... that would warrant the rise in stock price. That is why it can jump up and down 2-12% a day. Yes some stuff has leaked but it is not 100% for sure until it is announced by RIM officially.

    This is an extremely volatile period for the stock and news will trump everything now and going forward. The kicker will be how the media embrace BB10 on the 30th. Even if BB10 is the greatest thing in the world, but it gets bad press from US analysts and journalists, the stock will dive and it can dive back to pre-hype levels of around $11. It is very likely that some major players are shorting the stock and can pull strings with their media contacts to get some negative press. This will help them cover their shorts without losing the shirts of their backs. The stock will eventually climb but the people shorting it will be saved some pain. Given the 137m shorts, this scenario isn't too far fetched.

    If you have invested money that you will need a month from now, you probably would want to get out on the 29th or morning of 30th just in case the news isn't good. You don't want to be out say 30%-40%. If the news is good, then you can buy in mid rise and keep sitting on the stock. You can miss out on 5% for example but that's peanuts if you sit on it for a year and the stock goes up 300%.

    If you have invested money that you don't have to see for a year or more, then you can afford to take a hit if the news is bad because the stock will climb up eventually if BB10 is as good as the leaks have proven it is.

    It is important to always be 20% paranoid and expect the worst case scenario. Don't play around with money you cant afford to lose, and also don't be overly greedy/optimistic because it is very easy to get caught up in the hype. Don't bank on a short squeeze, or $150 predictions written by bob in his moms basement posting on this forum. Yes it is likely that it can all happen, probably the odds are in favour of it happening - just play it smart.

    The smart way of playing it would be to give up 50% of your position pre-launch, and then decide what to do with the remaining amount after the announcement. Just my 2c.
    01-24-13 10:56 PM
  2. BBNation's Avatar
    Honestly, trading this late into launch is a crapshoot. I'm personally ceasing all trading of RIM until Jan 29. Unless the stocks makes a giant move. I still very much believe there will be a major sell off on or around Jan 30th. I wiill be all cash EOD Jan 29th with Buy Stops going into effect Jan 30.

    If you're simply investing into RIM, it's never too late because long term the stock will be much higher, though it's always good idea to buy on the dip to maximize your profits.
    Why would be selloff on good news on jan 30th such as bb10 release, few surprises, availibilty, etc. please explain the rational behind your thought..thx
    01-24-13 11:05 PM
  3. BBNation's Avatar
    Just like few longs that purchased RIM in 30s, 40s, 50s and they decided to hang in there or sold..Shorts are in the same position most of them will hang in there until loses are extreme. My guess is that some shorts are recovered by now as when the sentiment is at lowest level there were about 50mil shorts and not 3 times. Based on develepments in last few weeks Jan 30th will not be disappointment, we all know what's coming. Just matter of availibilty. if they delay the availibilty by few weeks stock will tank, if first week of feb. it will rise. Tough decision,..sell now or wait..especially when your rim portion is in green and rest is red..
    01-24-13 11:21 PM
  4. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    [QUOTE=TomJasper;7883267]I ventured out into some other threads today, let me tell you, some angry iOS posters out there. Much more friendly in here,lol. Heck we have apple shareholders buying RIM here, we have different takes on where/when/how RIM is going to go and I have yet to see anything nasty or vindictive on this thread. We need to send out the "friendly patrol" and show them how to get along,lol.

    bungaboy likes this.
    01-24-13 11:25 PM
  5. pooger's Avatar
    It's important to note that the stock has been rising largely based on speculation, actually almost entirely based on speculation. Up until 15$ you were able to look at RIM's financials and calculate that the company is actually worth very close to that amount on paper - so it was a relatively safe investment. Meaning that if everything collapses and it came down to a buyout you would get around $15 a share.

    Now that the stock is in the $18 range, there is nothing tangible to attribute that additional growth to. No increased sales, no specific strategy, no exact phone specs, etc... that would warrant the rise in stock price. That is why it can jump up and down 2-12% a day. Yes some stuff has leaked but it is not 100% for sure until it is announced by RIM officially.

    This is an extremely volatile period for the stock and news will trump everything now and going forward. The kicker will be how the media embrace BB10 on the 30th. Even if BB10 is the greatest thing in the world, but it gets bad press from US analysts and journalists, the stock will dive and it can dive back to pre-hype levels of around $11. It is very likely that some major players are shorting the stock and can pull strings with their media contacts to get some negative press. This will help them cover their shorts without losing the shirts of their backs. The stock will eventually climb but the people shorting it will be saved some pain. Given the 137m shorts, this scenario isn't too far fetched.

    If you have invested money that you will need a month from now, you probably would want to get out on the 29th or morning of 30th just in case the news isn't good. You don't want to be out say 30%-40%. If the news is good, then you can buy in mid rise and keep sitting on the stock. You can miss out on 5% for example but that's peanuts if you sit on it for a year and the stock goes up 300%.

    If you have invested money that you don't have to see for a year or more, then you can afford to take a hit if the news is bad because the stock will climb up eventually if BB10 is as good as the leaks have proven it is.

    It is important to always be 20% paranoid and expect the worst case scenario. Don't play around with money you cant afford to lose, and also don't be overly greedy/optimistic because it is very easy to get caught up in the hype. Don't bank on a short squeeze, or $150 predictions written by bob in his moms basement posting on this forum. Yes it is likely that it can all happen, probably the odds are in favour of it happening - just play it smart.

    The smart way of playing it would be to give up 50% of your position pre-launch, and then decide what to do with the remaining amount after the announcement. Just my 2c.
    This is exactly how I feel about it. My portfolio is 100% options so I'm doubly concerned about a jan 30 crash so I will be pulling out 30 to 50%.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9930
    01-24-13 11:41 PM
  6. fedakd's Avatar
    To my knowledge, RIM's book value is closer to $18 than $15.

    It's important to note that the stock has been rising largely based on speculation, actually almost entirely based on speculation. Up until 15$ you were able to look at RIM's financials and calculate that the company is actually worth very close to that amount on paper - so it was a relatively safe investment. Meaning that if everything collapses and it came down to a buyout you would get around $15 a share.

    Now that the stock is in the $18 range, there is nothing tangible to attribute that additional growth to. No increased sales, no specific strategy, no exact phone specs, etc... that would warrant the rise in stock price. That is why it can jump up and down 2-12% a day. Yes some stuff has leaked but it is not 100% for sure until it is announced by RIM officially.

    This is an extremely volatile period for the stock and news will trump everything now and going forward. The kicker will be how the media embrace BB10 on the 30th. Even if BB10 is the greatest thing in the world, but it gets bad press from US analysts and journalists, the stock will dive and it can dive back to pre-hype levels of around $11. It is very likely that some major players are shorting the stock and can pull strings with their media contacts to get some negative press. This will help them cover their shorts without losing the shirts of their backs. The stock will eventually climb but the people shorting it will be saved some pain. Given the 137m shorts, this scenario isn't too far fetched.

    If you have invested money that you will need a month from now, you probably would want to get out on the 29th or morning of 30th just in case the news isn't good. You don't want to be out say 30%-40%. If the news is good, then you can buy in mid rise and keep sitting on the stock. You can miss out on 5% for example but that's peanuts if you sit on it for a year and the stock goes up 300%.

    If you have invested money that you don't have to see for a year or more, then you can afford to take a hit if the news is bad because the stock will climb up eventually if BB10 is as good as the leaks have proven it is.

    It is important to always be 20% paranoid and expect the worst case scenario. Don't play around with money you cant afford to lose, and also don't be overly greedy/optimistic because it is very easy to get caught up in the hype. Don't bank on a short squeeze, or $150 predictions written by bob in his moms basement posting on this forum. Yes it is likely that it can all happen, probably the odds are in favour of it happening - just play it smart.

    The smart way of playing it would be to give up 50% of your position pre-launch, and then decide what to do with the remaining amount after the announcement. Just my 2c.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    01-24-13 11:42 PM
  7. TomJasper's Avatar
    Long post telling us how/when to buy/sell?
    I would rather hear your own OPINION of what YOUR own strategy is.
    Never tell ppl what to do with their investments, that's ONLY for qualified brokers, I only say that because I know this thread is monitored the same as many other stock threads are. Don't take it personal in the least, just saving you some potential grief.

    So you have a crystal ball that says if BB10 blows everybody away,the shorts will get some media friends to put out bad press and we will be at $11 and in another sentence you state RIM is worth $15 pre-launch based just on present financials? What motivated you to write that obviously not well thought out synopsis?

    You talk about investing money that one might need in a month from now and how when to invest same. Please tell me you're not speaking of or advocating "rent money" as an investment strategy.

    Don't bank on a short squeeze or $150 predictions? Are you serious? I have yet to see a $150 prediction from anybody, more less $150 prediction at launch.

    In regards to a short squeeze, it's happened a few times already, that's one of many reasons we are not at the $7 range today and yes it will happen again, if you doubt that then you are doubting some very well educated and experienced professionals who make investing their forte.

    You say I should "give up" 50% of my RIM holdings before launch. Why would I do that, better yet why would YOU want me to do that? By extension I have to conclude you would want everybody to to that. What's the motive to that?

    I could go on but I'll stop here and give you some time to think/edit.

    Even if BB10 is the greatest thing in the world, but it gets bad press from US analysts and journalists, the stock will dive and it can dive back to pre-hype levels of around $11.

    If you have invested money that you will need a month from now, you probably would want to get out on the 29th or morning of 30th
    You don't want to be out say 30%-40%. If the news is good, then you can buy in mid rise and keep sitting on the stock.

    Don't bank on a short squeeze, or $150 predictions

    The smart way of playing it would be to give up 50% of your position pre-launch, and then decide what to do with the remaining amount after the announcement.
    01-24-13 11:58 PM
  8. TomJasper's Avatar
    [QUOTE=Shanerredflag;7883405]
    I ventured out into some other threads today, let me tell you, some angry iOS posters out there. Much more friendly in here,lol. Heck we have apple shareholders buying RIM here, we have different takes on where/when/how RIM is going to go and I have yet to see anything nasty or vindictive on this thread. We need to send out the "friendly patrol" and show them how to get along,lol.

    ROFLMAO
    01-25-13 12:01 AM
  9. Andrew4life's Avatar
    Like I posted earlier. I hope I'm wrong. But I'd rather be safe than greedy
    I dislike the word "greedy", I prefer "Go big! or go home!"
    lol


    To my knowledge, RIM's book value is closer to $18 than $15.
    Don't include intangible assets like patents and the BV will be lower.
    01-25-13 12:03 AM
  10. TomJasper's Avatar
    Just like few longs that purchased RIM in 30s, 40s, 50s and they decided to hang in there or sold..Shorts are in the same position most of them will hang in there until loses are extreme. My guess is that some shorts are recovered by now as when the sentiment is at lowest level there were about 50mil shorts and not 3 times. Based on develepments in last few weeks Jan 30th will not be disappointment, we all know what's coming. Just matter of availibilty. if they delay the availibilty by few weeks stock will tank, if first week of feb. it will rise. Tough decision,..sell now or wait..especially when your rim portion is in green and rest is red..
    I'll bet ya a cyber beer there are well over 120 million shares short, can you say squeeze.
    01-25-13 12:06 AM
  11. TomJasper's Avatar
    I have a feeling this is all going to be epic in the way it plays out. - Jan.23.2013 Nukemango

    __________

    Not feeling so "epic" tonight Nukemango, you miss buying on a dip, make a bad trade?
    01-25-13 12:21 AM
  12. TomJasper's Avatar
    Stocktwit of the week, imho

    "$RIMM reading comments on RIM articles,many people in disbelief that this stock is kicking ***. PM me I will send tissues to butthurt haters Bullish"
    BBNation and spike12 like this.
    01-25-13 12:36 AM
  13. nukemango's Avatar
    I have a feeling this is all going to be epic in the way it plays out. - Jan.23.2013 Nukemango

    __________

    Not feeling so "epic" tonight Nukemango, you miss buying on a dip, make a bad trade?
    Still feeling epic, thanks for asking.

    Honestly man, I don't know what to say to your post. lol But I wont be editing mine.

    You are right there is no Bob that lives in his moms basement predicting $150, that was sarcasm. The post was just a friendly reminder to be mindful of how you invest and tread carefully because the stock is volatile - especially if you are new to investing. I am entitled to my own opinion just as you are to yours.

    People on here shouldn't listen to me, you, or anyone else for that matter. They need to digest everything, assess pros and cons, and decide for themselves. It is easy to sit in this forum and drink your own koolaid.

    Nobody, even you, can tell with 100% certainty the date the phones will be available, or which phones, or the pricing, or the exact specifications including battery life or most importantly, how the media will react to all of this. Hence why the stock is volatile and you should tread carefully - especially if you are investing money you can't afford to lose.

    Once upon a time this company called Enron was a sure bet. It is always better to be safe than sorry bud.
    The Selected Fruit likes this.
    01-25-13 01:36 AM
  14. BBNation's Avatar
    Stocktwit of the week, imho

    "$RIMM reading comments on RIM articles,many people in disbelief that this stock is kicking ***. PM me I will send tissues to butthurt haters Bullish"
    Agree, media was jumping all over in 2012 and 10% up move is not even news. One thing changed, Jim crammer used to say sell and now says it is good buy at $15
    01-25-13 01:37 AM
  15. TomJasper's Avatar
    Still feeling epic, thanks for asking.

    Honestly man, I don't know what to say to your post. lol But I wont be editing mine.
    ( Your choice.)

    You are right there is no Bob that lives in his moms basement predicting $150, that was sarcasm.
    (Then why say it? You certainly didn't telegraph sarcasm in any shape/manner/form.)

    The post was just a friendly reminder to be mindful of how you invest and tread carefully because the stock is volatile - especially if you are new to investing. I am entitled to my own opinion just as you are to yours.
    ( Yet in another post few days back you, with conviction state RIM will be $20 by launch,without a due diligence disclaimer,where was the friendly reminder then?)

    People on here shouldn't listen to me, you, or anyone else for that matter. They need to digest everything, assess pros and cons, and decide for themselves. It is easy to sit in this forum and drink your own koolaid.
    ( I agree 100% as you are new to investing, it shows, but it's all good,perhaps Thunder can take you under his wing.)

    Nobody, even you, can tell with 100% certainty the date the phones will be available, or which phones, or the pricing, or the exact specifications including battery life or most importantly,
    (Well surprise, I actually do know when and yes the price/specs/battery life. You seriously think I would put that on a stock thread and burn myself and another?)

    how the media will react to all of this.
    ( I'm not concerned about that in the least, it's the consumer who will drive the sales,media gets to report on that. You have last year and RIM with no new product at the forefront of your media concerns, it's a different ball game now, media can't base on unfounded speculation going forward,this is how things work.)

    Hence why the stock is volatile and you should tread carefully - especially if you are investing money you can't afford to lose.
    (That's been said many times on this thread,would you prefer a sticky every morning, or regular intervals? Read my previous posts,any newbie or anybody who asks for stock advice I make sure to tell them to see a QUALIFIED broker, as do others.Geesh.)

    Once upon a time this company called Enron was a sure bet. It is always better to be safe than sorry bud.
    ( Are you saying that with a straight face? Now that's just plain insulting to even compare RIM to,sounds more like a cheap scare tactic,grow up.)
    Didn't want to spend too much time on this, so my response is what's in brackets.
    01-25-13 02:17 AM
  16. TomJasper's Avatar
    Agree, media was jumping all over in 2012 and 10% up move is not even news. One thing changed, Jim crammer used to say sell and now says it is good buy at $15
    Must have been like pulling teeth for him to say that,lol. He has a habit of skimming, would be interesting if he ever scratches the surface deeper,maybe wonder then why he didn't back up the truck last summer. Then again with his yearly I'm sure he has no needs,lol.
    01-25-13 02:22 AM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Pfew ! What a read !!!
    Guys, thank you for sharing your knowledge, this is amazing !
    All I read sounds wise to me, the pros, the cons, the "conservatism" approach (be ready to miss 5% but cover your gains) etc ...

    But, at the end, as a rookie observer, I'd like to share with you my over-simplistic view (witch is not an investment advice, etc.)

    Current rally is powered by a "logical" reason :
    No one still believe what the naysayers have stated for about 2 years now. We're back to what we might consider the "tangible book values" is (note : BB10 inventory has to be added as a tangible asset, in balance with intangible ones as patents. It's not 1 on 1, but it counts). Basically, this means that the current stock price, despite a roughly 3X since the lows is nothing but +/- the fair value of RIM, as if they never went in trouble, and operating nicely as the 4th or 5th player. In short : they're not dying; not now and not "next week" either. Forget about the past management and errors. We're in a "now" situation.

    Watch my back :
    That's a tricky game. We have here players with tons of cash and investors that are diversifying their position, based on whatever appl, MS, Nok or Google will report/announce/miss. Despite all the great explanations we can read above, all I (me, myself, alone) can read is : bull or bear, north or south, good or bad : these words have not the same meaning for me and them. Their interest is the following : make the stock value move, in whatever direction. While this would be necessarily capped, just imagine - as a mental representation - you bet on head or tail with an opponent that doubles its bet every time he loses. You cannot win. Because you'll get out of cash before they do (note: of course, this is only true with our scale of investment compared to theirs. This cannot be true "against the market").
    (Edited ) This is particullary true when we are on a non revenue distribution situation; once the number Earnings Per Share (EPS ?) will be positive, the situation will likely change, hopefully to a more stable one

    Market operators are conditioned by "antique-but-proven-true" rules. "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news" is one you've read on almost every page of this thread. Statistically these rules are TRUE because these operators have a portfolio of different stocks, with a defined global value. They think "global", not "focus on that value". There's zero attachment to a brand :"Never fall in love with your stock" is as important to them than "no bit of nooky in business" to us (note : I hope for you it is lol). They can move from one stock to another in a snap and this movement can cause another with no readable reason.

    Where do I go from here ?

    I'm not a stock trader (repeat after me, say it loud, at least once: you - if rookie as I am - must admit and remember this).
    What I rely on, is the "plan" Thorsten Heins and his team have set a year ago; this was a 3-5 years market recovery, rational and efficient.
    So far, despite the initial 3 months BB10 delay - the plan is running exactly as announced; this is a MAJOR point, as investment rely on trust-able management and deliverability.
    I've played with the device and every new release of OS and SDK have brought my overall perception close to the highest level of satisfaction. I'm even amazed of this level, for a 1st iteration of a whole new platform (I'm in tech/I.T since 1989, when there was no hard disk in PCs ).

    Conclusion ?

    I've made an initial tiny investment with that in mind and a target frame of 3-5 years.
    Following the stock is exciting and educational, but so far, I can barely read its move afterwards.
    I trust M. Heins and the whole RIM team.
    I stand, I do not play against the beast and I believe in 3-5 years, I won't have lost a penny (understatement) ... and I may well pay that used car for my daughters I was somehow "dreaming of" 18 months ago. I believe I can imagine its color, right now.

    I support RIM [vision, strategy and goals] and I bought shares [because I believed this would be proven true].
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 01-25-13 at 07:41 AM.
    01-25-13 03:17 AM
  18. greggebhardt's Avatar
    I learned long ago to read everything but trust only yourself. While many here have a strategy, all have been proven wrong one time or another. The best advice they have is do not invest what you can to afford to loose. There are betting sites that will give you better odds.
    01-25-13 03:25 AM
  19. InWithTheNew's Avatar
    Didn't quite get a chance to read through the comments of the past 2 pages, however I did get a sense that it was more of a negative tone towards the stock and a doubt that the rally can keep going. I'm glad you folks feel that way. Makes me happy to still be in the stock. Had you guys talk to the moon again, then it would be time to hit the sideline. Here's to a nice move today (Friday.) CHow.
    01-25-13 03:29 AM
  20. pooger's Avatar
    I would like to request that all previous aapl shareholders please dump your investment dollars into rimm now that it's the next big thing.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9930
    01-25-13 04:06 AM
  21. greggebhardt's Avatar
    I would like to request that all previous aapl shareholders please dump your investment dollars into rimm now that it's the next big thing.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9930
    I am not so sure about that. Apple will remain a player for a long time, they just might not be the only player. Right now Apple swats at RIMM like a fly on the president's face!
    01-25-13 06:02 AM
  22. Acumenight's Avatar
    It's up in the premarket $18.18. Not a bad way to open.
    01-25-13 07:01 AM
  23. cleacy's Avatar
    That news clip that was posted previously regarding the Apple/RIMM pair trade is now available on BBN's website.

    Business Day PM : January 23, 2013

    The trade being described would have been performing absolutely horribly over the past few months, especially this month. They would have had to have been in pain, and I can't believe that they wouldn't have been trying to roll it up...

    I've only been thinking about one side of this trade (RIM). How do you roll up a trade where you shorted RIM to purchase AAPL? You sell AAPL, and buy RIM.
    Last edited by cleacy; 01-25-13 at 07:33 AM.
    01-25-13 07:05 AM
  24. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Sentiments can change for everything and that can happen quickly...I have been reading and researching pretty steadily on RIM for about a year. At first I thought, meh...they probably won't make it. That transitioned to hey...they sure are working hard...at least they're going down swinging. Now I am thinking this thing has become what may be the comeback of this century and one of the all time greats...talked about and taught in colleges and universities for decades to come...that great.

    One never knows for sure though...I know I'm officially fascinated.
    Geeoff and Superfly_FR like this.
    01-25-13 07:05 AM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    AAPL has lost over 250 Billion in market cap since Sept...me thinks the APPL long and RIM shorts are really going to fight hard now...time will tell.
    01-25-13 07:19 AM
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