[MartyMcfly]

Hats off to you Superfly. I stop paying attention to this stock months ago. You're going to see little bumps every now and then, however it's going to take a few great quarters before you see anything significant/consistent. I glanced at the daily/weekly charts and I have yet to find anything that says that RIMM is a good buy at this point...Hopefully BB10 changes that, I could use some extra money.


Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk

[sam_b77]

Hats off to you Superfly. I stop paying attention to this stock months ago. You're going to see little bumps every now and then, however it's going to take a few great quarters before you see anything significant/consistent. I glanced at the daily/weekly charts and I have yet to find anything that says that RIMM is a good buy at this point...Hopefully BB10 changes that, I could use some extra money.


Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk

Agreed. Only regular stock market ups and downs for at least a few quarters. Unless some positive or negative news comes out of RIM (on the negative side, even more negative than what the market is expecting).
I don't see RIM Above $20 in the next two years. And that's optimistic.

[njblackberry]

Superfly - one of the important things in the call is how much money RIM makes (or isn't making) on the new subscribers. Did they make any money on the hardware? Were there discounts involved. It's not as simple as more subscribers = more profits.

The other key indicator will be their cash flow and free cash. They are spending a lot of money on BB 10 now (and they should be) but if their cash is significantly down (I will let the analysts determine what significantly means) then it could have an impact.

It all comes down to the earnings - if they are better or even equal to what the analysts have projected, then the stock will stay level or even go up.

If they are worse than expected or cash goes down dramatically, then Friday could be rough.

Just my guess...

[Superfly_FR]

Superfly - one of the important things in the call is how much money RIM makes (or isn't making) on the new subscribers. Did they make any money on the hardware? Were there discounts involved. It's not as simple as more subscribers = more profits.

The other key indicator will be their cash flow and free cash. They are spending a lot of money on BB 10 now (and they should be) but if their cash is significantly down (I will let the analysts determine what significantly means) then it could have an impact.

It all comes down to the earnings - if they are better or even equal to what the analysts have projected, then the stock will stay level or even go up.

If they are worse than expected or cash goes down dramatically, then Friday could be rough.

Just my guess...

I simply agree.

[richardat]

Superfly - one of the important things in the call is how much money RIM makes (or isn't making) on the new subscribers. Did they make any money on the hardware? Were there discounts involved. It's not as simple as more subscribers = more profits.

The other key indicator will be their cash flow and free cash. They are spending a lot of money on BB 10 now (and they should be) but if their cash is significantly down (I will let the analysts determine what significantly means) then it could have an impact.

It all comes down to the earnings - if they are better or even equal to what the analysts have projected, then the stock will stay level or even go up.

If they are worse than expected or cash goes down dramatically, then Friday could be rough.

Just my guess...

Agreed. Cash is a huge problem....and I think the most signifcant thing to see this time. Along with anything that might inspire lines of credit. If 2 million is correct, it's an awful sign, but better than a net loss.

[richardat]

this thread makes me chuckle

LOL. It doesn't actually make me laugh, it makes me cringe on so many levels.

It's an expression of love and loyalty for an impersonal corporate entity. It's an expression of emotional investing. It's an expression of ill-advised, blindly optimistic, interpretations. It is an expression of misread metrics.....it is at all at once: beautiful, misguided, stupid, and passionate. As love often is.

[grunt0300]

LOL. It doesn't actually make me laugh, it makes me cringe on so many levels.

It's an expression of love and loyalty for an impersonal corporate entity. It's an expression of emotional investing. It's an expression of ill-advised, blindly optimistic, interpretations. It is an expression of misread metrics.....it is at all at once: beautiful, misguided, stupid, and passionate. As love often is.

A wonderful sentiment. However, as far as this thread is concerned....Just take out the word beautiful, and the word passionate, and the rest applies.

[Moonbase0ne]

I personally think BB10 will be really good and impressive when it's released. I am looking forward to it and I am hoping they actually succeed with a great product. But, I am not going to blindly say, "I will definitely be getting a BB10 phone at lauch" without knowing more about it. All I've seen so far are a few videos/demos here in there.

But, I think a lot of people are looking to invest in RIM out of their fondness for the company, phones, OS, etc... and not looking at it as a realistic investment. They are not loooking at the big picture, thinking tech blogs are just "picking on RIM" and not reading up on investing. They are just giving away their money because they like RIM and they want to "support" RIM.

My advice, learn how and when to invest your money first.

[grunt0300]

I personally think BB10 will be really good and impressive when it's released. I am looking forward to it and I am hoping they actually succeed with a great product. But, I am not going to blindly say, "I will definitely be getting a BB10 phone at lauch" without knowing more about it. All I've seen so far are a few videos/demos here in there.

But, I think a lot of people are looking to invest in RIM out of their fondness for the company, phones, OS, etc... and not looking at it as a realistic investment. They are not loooking at the big picture, thinking tech blogs are just "picking on RIM" and not reading up on investing. They are just giving away their money because they like RIM and they want to "support" RIM.

My advice, learn how and when to invest your money first.

I've been saying this for the longest time. Here's the other factor. Some BB fanboys, who want to impress other BB fanboys, shout out that they have just bought stock in RIMM! When will these people learn, that Rim doesn't give a damn, if they buy some shares, or not. Once again, and for the last time, i will say this...If the BB10 devices are not well received, Rim will be sold, taken over, or any way that you want to put it.

[richardat]

A wonderful sentiment. However, as far as this thread is concerned....Just take out the word beautiful, and the word passionate, and the rest applies.

LOL.. Well...loyalty, passion...those things can be beautiful certainly...perhaps not misguided loyalty, but even the....errors of human nature, are, in their own way....beautifully human.

[randall2580]

Its interesting to remember that in recent quarters, there have been analysts come out and speak some really "tough" numbers for RIM. Others said "no way". In the end the guys who make a living doing this stuff were more right than they were wrong and numbers we did not believe actually came true to the chagrin of the buyers of the stock. These guys have ways of getting information we don't have. They know who RIM's suppliers are and watch what they are doing, watch the carriers and what they report they are selling around the world. From that they make their best guesses. They are in the end best guesses and the better analysts get it more right than wrong. Few if any are ever 100%

Its too early to declare victory in spite of a nice move the last 2 days. Remember there are some "entrenched" longs in this stock and they know they have to change the perception of the market. They will defend their longs with buying and they knew that they couldn't have the stock close lower after RIM basically gave up at least some of their "secrets" as Alec called them, especially with what is likely to be a tough day tomorrow afternoon.

The Citibank guy who made the call for a lower subscriber base didn't pull it out of his #(@* nor did he likely have a vested interest in making the call. It was his best information taken from what he had culled about RIM.

Its just one more day lets see what we get in the call and talk about it afterwards, see how it compared to the calls from the analysts. One interesting side note, I didn't see Chris U write anything this time about how these guys just can't be right...just saying.

[abwan11]

I personally think BB10 will be really good and impressive when it's released. I am looking forward to it and I am hoping they actually succeed with a great product. But, I am not going to blindly say, "I will definitely be getting a BB10 phone at lauch" without knowing more about it. All I've seen so far are a few videos/demos here in there.

But, I think a lot of people are looking to invest in RIM out of their fondness for the company, phones, OS, etc... and not looking at it as a realistic investment. They are not loooking at the big picture, thinking tech blogs are just "picking on RIM" and not reading up on investing. They are just giving away their money because they like RIM and they want to "support" RIM.

My advice, learn how and when to invest your money first.

The same can be said about people who invest in Apple. Can you give us some investment advice on when the turning point will be for Apple? Obviously their earnings will peak before they decline, but has that already happened, or is it going to happen?

[Moonbase0ne]

The same can be said about people who invest in Apple. Can you give us some investment advice on when the turning point will be for Apple? Obviously their earnings will peak before they decline, but has that already happened, or is it going to happen?

The same could be said for any company. There are people who invest in things/companies just because they like them, and have no ideal how to invest. Investing in any company just because you like them, to support them, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Especially if you have to come to a forums like Crackberry to ask how investing works.

I was a BORDERS fan, but I didn't invest in them when they were doing really poorly to try to "help" or "support" them. It would have been me simply throwing money away. And I certainly didn't care to say I own some of BORDERS' shares for the sake of sounding cool. But, reading through this thread, and many like it, here on Crackberry and elsewhere, that is what people are doing, and do, regularly.

As far as Apple goes, I don't have any advice on the turning point for them, but, in my opinion, investing in Apple right now, if you can afford it, makes more sense because they are successful and it looks like they will be for awhile yet. RIM, on the other hand, is struggling, and it's chances of success with BB10 are much slimmer than Apple's chance of success with iOS 6.

I am actually looking forward to BB10 but I am not looking at it from the perspective of a fan of RIM, I tend to look it it more realistically as in, the market, how they are doing now, how they've done in the past 12 months or so, etc... Plus, even if BB10 is the best OS for a phone ever, that means nothing if the people buying phones who aren't fan boys/girls of RIM don't buy it when it's released come January.

Just my opinion and random thoughts.

[Superfly_FR]

LOL. It doesn't actually make me laugh, it makes me cringe on so many levels.

It's an expression of love and loyalty for an impersonal corporate entity. It's an expression of emotional investing. It's an expression of ill-advised, blindly optimistic, interpretations. It is an expression of misread metrics.....it is at all at once: beautiful, misguided, stupid, and passionate. As love often is.

A wonderful sentiment. However, as far as this thread is concerned....Just take out the word beautiful, and the word passionate, and the rest applies.

We're so glad you bring such insightful informations to leverage this thread to the Pantheon of useful comments ... nahhh.

There's nothing about love here, as stated many times (thanks troll.patrol - h�h� BTW, who are you ?). You can argue this is irrational, gut invest or whatever. I believe I've been screening enough RIM "history" to be able to notice what has changed, both on management and technical sides. Also I have a tiny idea (IT pro since ... ouch ... 1991) of how/why the market (especially Enterprises) can adopt or reject a technology. You may scan RIM with your financial view; I've also been reading every single day financial analysis - pros (few) and cons (a lot) - those that probably feed your point of view. Yet, I still I believe RIM will make it. I'm an entrepreneur, not a spiel guy.

P.S : (Tech) Love is for apple sheep (and not all apple users are sheep). Mine is for wife and family.

[richardat]

We're so glad you bring such insightful informations to leverage this thread to the Pantheon of useful comments ... nahhh.

There's nothing about love here, as stated many times (thanks troll.patrol - h�h� BTW, who are you ?). You can argue this is irrational, gut invest or whatever. I believe I've been screening enough RIM "history" to be able to notice what has changed, both on management and technical sides.

Sure. You can claim that. I don't believe you, but I believe you may be able convince yourself of that. Your EXTREME RIM bias comes through all the time. In the end though, it wont' matter WHY you made your decision.

Note: your sarcasm is neither witty nor becoming. If you wish intelligent conversation, drop the teenager antics.

Also I have a tiny idea (IT pro since ... ouch ... 1991) of how/why the market (especially Enterprises) can adopt or reject a technology. You may scan RIM with your financial view; I've also been reading every single day financial analysis - pros (few) and cons (a lot) - those that probably feed your point of view.

It's extremely presumptuous and rather rude of you to assume what informs my judgment. If you ever wish to discuss it EARNESTLY, I encourage you to directly quote anything I say that you disagree with, and then reply to it directly, not make vague generalizations about what you guess my opinion might be.

NOTE: you may read financial analysis every day, but you freely admitted most financial metrics were beyond your understanding....that was what? A week ago?

Yet, I still I believe RIM will make it. I'm an entrepreneur, not a spiel guy.

Sorry, I have NO IDEA what you're trying to say here. ie entrepeneur vs whatever a "spiel guy" is.

P.S : (Tech) Love is for apple sheep (and not all apple users are sheep). Mine is for wife and family.

Geez....don't the usual suspects EVER get tired of the juvenile insults and ugly stereotyping? Is it just some kind of crude reflex that comes out now?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

We're so glad you bring such insightful informations to leverage this thread to the Pantheon of useful comments ... nahhh.

There's nothing about love here, as stated many times (thanks troll.patrol - h�h� BTW, who are you ?). You can argue this is irrational, gut invest or whatever. I believe I've been screening enough RIM "history" to be able to notice what has changed, both on management and technical sides. Also I have a tiny idea (IT pro since ... ouch ... 1991) of how/why the market (especially Enterprises) can adopt or reject a technology. You may scan RIM with your financial view; I've also been reading every single day financial analysis - pros (few) and cons (a lot) - those that probably feed your point of view. Yet, I still I believe RIM will make it. I'm an entrepreneur, not a spiel guy.

P.S : (Tech) Love is for apple sheep (and not all apple users are sheep). Mine is for wife and family.

Sorry but Enterprise is going to have very little to do with if RIM can be profitable, so your being an "IT Pro" (and all you can risk is enough to by 150 shares?) isn't going to help you much in your making investment decisions. Consumers are the ones buying the biggest percentage of smartphones, they are the ones that will pay extra to upgrade early, they are the ones they will buy the more expensive "flaggship" devices and THEY are the ones that are forcing more companies to allow other devices on their networks - regardless of what the IT departments might want.

Just admit that you LOVE RIM, you want them to turn things around and that you FEEL that buy buying stock you are supporting RIM in your on way. Might not really work that way, but if it make you feel good - own it!

[pooger]

For me, I'm only investing to make money and have some fun with my educated guessing skills.

I don't emotionally care about RIMM enough to invest in them. I do like my blackberry and don't wish to switch but I also don't think investing in their shares is going to improve their company in any noticeable fashion.

[pooger]

Here's the current state of my RIMM portfolio as of yesterday's close. Obviously I've lost money but I'm holding onto it long term and I'm waiting for the stock to crash tomorrow to buy more. (at least I hope that it crashes)

The top line is the summary and the line items below are all purchases.

[Superfly_FR]

Ok, enough with me and what I think. I leave the sofa ... I'm too old for that.
This post is always (and has always been)open to different point of views. Stop shooting on what you believe I am/think (no one gives a $h1t) and focus on the opportunity or not to invest. No need to make this a bistro talk.

In about 1 1/2 hour, we'll see some concrete reactions (aftermarket). So far, the stock went down to $6.75 and is slowly climbing back to $7 ($6.92 as I write this). While it does not forecast what will append after the Earnings call, I claim that it is a sign of relative confidence. If results are not far from (what is commonly described as) "guidance" (while T.H didn't exposed any), then my "blinded-naive love" could turn into a quite reasonable forecast, i.e staying around $7.



Edit : by the time I posted this, $7 is already here.

[tonyrenier]

I do think it was an act of faith, but I bought 100 shares when they were at 13.50. I knew I'd be in for the long haul, I knew there were tough times ahead, I didn't expect the stock to drop as low as it has. But, I may ride them to 0, I hope not. I believe in the product, the entire concept and the quality. I believe in BB10 though at present I'm using BB 5 on my Tour, I bought a PlayBook which remains an excellent product and I hope to make some money some day.
I don't live by the fiscal quarter, I look down the road when I'm driving.

[madman0141]

At one time I had RIM shares but sold them for modest profit. That was when they were $16-17 a share. Wait a month or two and I will buy 17 shares for $17. It makes me sick that just 4 short years ago this stock was like $150 a share.

[pooger]

Crap, looks like I'm not going to have an opportunity to buy RIMM at sub 6.5 anymore

[Superfly_FR]

Do you know what is wonderful when you know sh17? It's when it turns in favor of your choice. Close: $7.14 / after market: $8.21 as I type.

Posted with love on my amazing BB10 flying words keyboard.

I love that.


Edit:I didn't have seen the results shown. Now I'm just dancing. Do not ruin my joy. Oh. You can't.

I wish you could hear as loud as I am (in my head) "London Calling" and yep, I'm dancin' again. That's emotional, that's irrelevant, that's ... OMG just ... Broadwaaayyyyy !

[OzarkaTexile]

Down. But no more than 10%. RIMM closes just over $6 on Fri.

I was wrong.

[Superfly_FR]

I was wrong.

But you're smart.