[njblackberry]

For investors in RIMM it should be a relief that they have Prem Watsa on board both as investor and director. He can tell a thing or two about customer care, running the business efficiently etc. One can argue that Watsa bought most of his shares too expensive. But I know investing in a company for Watsa (and his team) means totally taking the company and the branch of industry apart. So the doubling down in July is a big vote of confidence. Btw since the eighties Watsa is involved in investing/turning around tech companies, so he is highly experienced in that field.

So, this is my two cents...

Mr. Watsa, so far, has around half a BILLION dollars in unrealized losses. That's a cocktail napkin calculation. But since the stock keeps going down, it isn't hard to imaging.
Yesterday RIMM was down over 6% because of another NOC outage.
Next week they will announce HORRIBLE results. Again.

This was published in Forbes last night - RIM: 10 Reasons Why Things Are Going To Get Even Worse - Forbes

Mr. Watsa may be in this for the long term, but it is going to be a VERY bumpy ride. And Mr. Watsa's stake has gone DONE since he doubled up. He averaged down. He bought too high and would get killed if he sold now. So he is stuck. That's all. He bet on the wrong horse.

And that's my two cents - and I think RIMM is ALMOST cheap enough to buy. I think by mid week it will be in the 6.25 area...

60% of RIMM is owned by institutions. Me buying 100 or 1000 or 10000 shares will not make a bit of difference.

[Superfly_FR]

Mr. Watsa, so far, has around half a BILLION dollars in unrealized losses. That's a cocktail napkin calculation. But since the stock keeps going down, it isn't hard to imaging.
Yesterday RIMM was down over 6% because of another NOC outage.
Next week they will announce HORRIBLE results. Again.

This was published in Forbes last night - RIM: 10 Reasons Why Things Are Going To Get Even Worse - Forbes

Mr. Watsa may be in this for the long term, but it is going to be a VERY bumpy ride. And Mr. Watsa's stake has gone DONE since he doubled up. He averaged down. He bought too high and would get killed if he sold now. So he is stuck. That's all. He bet on the wrong horse.

And that's my two cents - and I think RIMM is ALMOST cheap enough to buy. I think by mid week it will be in the 6.25 area...

60% of RIMM is owned by institutions. Me buying 100 or 1000 or 10000 shares will not make a bit of difference.

Thanks for your inputs.
For your last sentence, since I'm refreshing the thread "logic" times to times, I stated before that the title should have been "I support RIM and I buy share" that would have better reflected my mind. Also that I won't pretend I'm 100% right; it's just the way I see the current situation. Time to ask a mod to change the title, to avoid confusion due to my approximative English.

[njblackberry]

No language problem - you support RIM (I personally believe RIM should support YOU but that's another thread) and that is fine. It just may not make financial sense in the short term. I personally hate losing money on a stock

[Superfly_FR]

It just may not make financial sense in the short term. I personally hate losing money on a stock

Another precision, then : my position is set for a 3-5 years long investment. It is the time frame T. Heins gave for a "real" recovery. Again, this might not have a financial reasonable justification, it's just the way I intend to do it.
And, oh, I hate waste of any kind.

[OMGitworks]

For investors in RIMM it should be a relief that they have Prem Watsa on board both as investor and director. He can tell a thing or two about customer care, running the business efficiently etc. One can argue that Watsa bought most of his shares too expensive. But I know investing in a company for Watsa (and his team) means totally taking the company and the branch of industry apart. So the doubling down in July is a big vote of confidence. Btw since the eighties Watsa is involved in investing/turning around tech companies, so he is highly experienced in that field.

So, this is my two cents...

This has been the subject of many, many posts on this site. Unfortunately your logic has proven to be extremely costly for those who advocated it and followed it all along. His losses are over $500M now, and growing. The stock is a disaster no matter who owns it. Prem was wrong this time, too bad for all of us. He doubled down to try to save his initial investment, unfortunately it backfired and he only dug a (2x) deeper hole.

[njblackberry]

RIMM closed today at $6.305/share, the lowest closing price ever. It was as low as $6.22 today.

I would expect a small pop as events unfold at BB Jam, and then a drop when the quarterly numbers are announced.

I don't own any RIMM now but may buy some by the end of the week.

[grunt0300]

RIMM closed today at $6.305/share, the lowest closing price ever. It was as low as $6.22 today.

I would expect a small pop as events unfold at BB Jam, and then a drop when the quarterly numbers are announced.

I don't own any RIMM now but may buy some by the end of the week.

Put in a buy order for 1,000 shares@$5.00. You may just get it, soon.

[cgk]

I think RIM's future is bright.

Like Warren Buffet says "Buy when people are fearful and sell when people are greedy".
I think he has done well.

However, I'm not sure I could endorse this type of suggestion by the OP. I support RIM and love their products (especially the OS7 phones and the Playbook) but people need to review their investment objectives before they invest.

I have a few shares of RIM and feel pretty confident they will go over fifty in the next twelve months as a result of valuation and succesful OS7 launches around the world not being recognized by an amazingly negative media. Further, if RIM does surprise everyone and produce a BB-X phone that is as good as it could be, then the stock could go to a hundred again.

However, I'm not sure people should buy shares because of a post on the CrackBerry website. It is not the optimal source. People should consult their financial advisor if they have one or do some research themselves. ValueLine is a popular paid service that Warren Buffett himself has praised. Maybe start there.

Going all the way back to the start, this guy has about 6 days for the stock price to increase by $45.

[DIA.NSA.CIA]

Chart Range: 1Y

And they don't even give you paper certificates to paste on the wall when the stock becomes worthless any more...

Current FY EPS -$1.49

[Superfly_FR]

As a reference point (do not trade on daily basis), just before BBJAM. (will do the same just before/after earnings call).

[Superfly_FR]

After BBJAM launch ...

Carriers are in.
Roadmap is on time
BB10 looks impressive.
2 million more subscribers ... round it to 80 total now.
Now, let's wait for the cash figure ... how much worth 2Million subscribers ... did they "burn" the whole thing ? Suspense ... (my bet : they have over $1.8Billion still - I shouldn't write that ... I know, sorry, serious guys.)

#ahum. Why is that I'm ultimately less skeptical (I wasn't, in did) than before ?
BTW: have a look to yahoo's headlines ... went from dark red to light green, with few (bashed in comments) rant : http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RIMM&ql=1

[cgk]

RIMM closed at 6.60 - why does your screen capture show 6.67?

[sam_b77]

RIMM closed at 6.60 - why does your screen capture show 6.67?

Maybe because the screen capture was before markets closed .
Look at the time, its at 3:24 PM. Nasdaq trading hours is from 9:30 Am to 4PM.

[Superfly_FR]

RIMM closed at 6.60 - why does your screen capture show 6.67?

Sorry should have stated it was before market closing.
There you go with today's opening (or such, I highlighted yesterday's close).


Second day with raise ... is that a trend ? (P.S by the time I write this, up to $6.91)

And some feedback.

Associated Press http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ahead-...122122133.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Research in Motion climbed in premarket trading on Wednesday, as an analyst said that the Blackberry maker's second-quarter financial results may not be as bad as Wall Street is expecting.
Shaw Wu of Sterne, Agee & Leach says Wall Street is anticipating that Research in Motion will report a large decline in quarterly revenue and a big operating loss. The company will report its results on Thursday.
"With low expectations, we believe there is a fair chance that the company may meet or even slightly beat," Wu wrote in a client note.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect a loss of 46 cents per share on revenue of $2.43 billion.
Still, Wu says the second-quarter performance may not matter, as investors may focus more on the Canadian company's cash balance and its job-cutting plans.
In June, Research in Motion said that it would eliminate 5,000 jobs as part of a previously announced initiative to cut $1 billion in annual costs this year. The job cuts represent approximately 30 percent of RIM's workforce of about 16,500.
Wu says RIM had a cash balance of $2.25 billion in the first quarter. While it is anticipated RIM will face an operating loss in the second quarter, the analyst says that investors will be looking to see if the company was able to hold onto or even grow its cash balance by collecting on accounts receivables and working capital changes. This was something RIM was able to do in the first quarter, Wu explained.
The analyst reaffirmed a "Neutral" rating.
William Blair's Anil Doradla is concerned that RIM may not meet his quarterly revenue estimate of $2.3 billion as the company deals with intense competition and a weak product offering to consumers.
"Blackberry smartphones remain an afterthought in the consumer market," Doradla wrote.
The analyst says he doesn't believe there will be any major improvement in RIM's share price until the Blackberry 10 rolls out, and even then it remains to be seen if the new device will be embraced by consumers.
Doradla maintained a "Market Perform" rating.
Research in Motion Ltd.'s stock added 18 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $6.78 before the market open. The shares have lost more than half their value since the beginning of the year.

[OzarkaTexile]

There might be money to make on RIMM by timing trades around announcements, but this has always been a game for the rich and foolish. Given that RIMM is trading at historic lows and close to it's base valuation, the stock is a buy if you think they can turn it around with BB10. I haven't seen anything that makes me think BB10 will be anything other than a niche player, and I don't think RIM can be profitable in that position. Samsung and Apple are the only profitable phone manufacturers in 2012.

[pooger]

I'm hoping it crashes again tomorrow so I have another chance to buy at around 5.5 or 6. It will be a goldmine.

[OzarkaTexile]

I'm hoping it crashes again tomorrow so I have another chance to buy at around 5.5 or 6. It will be a goldmine.

Can't tell if you're serious about the goldmine, but I think you'll get your wish for a share price below $6 on Friday after the earnings announcement.

[cgk]

So up or down on Friday after the results?

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[OzarkaTexile]

So up or down on Friday after the results?

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

Down. But no more than 10%. RIMM closes just over $6 on Fri.

[pooger]

Down. But no more than 10%. RIMM closes just over $6 on Fri.

Yeah something like that. My best guess is that it will crash after the earnings report and possibly go down slowly for a few days/weeks until mid 5s but then it will head up toward the release of BB10 as long as signs from RIMM show that they are still on target for January release.

If BB10 is released on the day they said it will be, even if the product doesn't get a lot of hype, the stock will still hit 8 or 9.

If the critics write that BB10 is pretty awesome, then the sky's the limit in the long term future.

If BB10 gets delayed again, the stock will fall to 4.

If BB10 gets scrapped, the stock will fall to 2.

If RIMM gets purchased, my guess is they'll get bought at 14.

I'm a casual investor so these are all personal guesses.

[sam_b77]

@cgk,
At the very least acknowledge your mistake for jumping on superfly's post on accuracy. Seriously dude, with all your negativity on RIM, you can at least admit when you jumped the gun. Will just show that you are a bigger man and not just an anti-RIM human platform.

[Triplell]

Yeah something like that. My best guess is that it will crash after the earnings report and possibly go down slowly for a few days/weeks until mid 5s but then it will head up toward the release of BB10 as long as signs from RIMM show that they are still on target for January release.

If BB10 is released on the day they said it will be, even if the product doesn't get a lot of hype, the stock will still hit 8 or 9.

If the critics write that BB10 is pretty awesome, then the sky's the limit in the long term future.

If BB10 gets delayed again, the stock will fall to 4.

If BB10 gets scrapped, the stock will fall to 2.

If RIMM gets purchased, my guess is they'll get bought at 14.

I'm a casual investor so these are all personal guesses.

You have any data that would backup these numbers? Anyone can pull numbers out of thin air. I'm going to go ahead and conclude that since you are only a "casual investor" that you didn't really perform any sort of 'analysis' for this. So with that, I'm going to take your numbers as a grain of salt.

RIMM's stock will be worth roughly what the company shows they are worth.

[Superfly_FR]

100% pure personal speculation.
Customer growth will still fill the news. (today's volume is about over 40 million trades ... 2X+ the average)
Cash will be around $1.8B.
Roadmap is on schedule and Heins made it - so far.

I believe there will be some corrections (short players are spamming hard their doom and gloom to balance yesterday's positive analysis) but we may stand very near $7. This would be a tremendous success IF it is so.

EDIT: this time I waited (it's 11:23 PM here ). I like this round value. Let's see how it goes tomorrow.

[Superfly_FR]

RIMM closed today at $6.305/share, the lowest closing price ever. It was as low as $6.22 today.

I would expect a small pop as events unfold at BB Jam, and then a drop when the quarterly numbers are announced.

I don't own any RIMM now but may buy some by the end of the week.

small pop ? approx 14% in 2.5 days ... I'm sure RIM is pretty well in intra-days

[pooger]

this thread makes me chuckle