[Superfly_FR]

I'm not a trader, and I must admit most of the metrics enlighten investors give are beyond my knowledge.
My current reflexion/position is based on the points below :

1. Even with the massive success of the iPhone5 being upgraded to current (Android) standards, you can easily note that the overall perception of this new iphone iteration is mitigated. While consumers will buy it (I call it a brand love act), even the most enthusiastic fans won't repeat the 4 - 4S - 5 "update not upgrade" forever. I mean there is an erosion of apple's innovative/revolutionary image; Tim Cook isn't Steve.
As of date, statements like "APPL is now alike RIM's 2005 position" will be accurate IF they don't innovate (for real).

2. War is declared between APPL and Samsung. So far, SAM won and is #1 worldwide. It's known for its aggressiveness, APPL is too. These companies will fight on every fronts to gain/keep the leadersheep (not it's not a typo: some geek humor); this have a cost, both on image and operational sides.

3. MS and RIM are in a "non aggressive" (at least) competition. While each promotes its platform, we can see that they are collaborating on many fronts (office365, ActiveSync, exFAT) to make their environments seamlessly "compatible". My angle about this is that, while two leaders are fighting, they are pushing to create some extra room in #3 "pool" position, filled with RIM and MS powered devices (Nokia ?) duet.

4. At the same time, RIM is about to offer nor an update or an upgrade but a whole (from devices to back-end) new platform, filled with a new paradigm (U.I, real multitasking promoted as "the flow") and novel functionalities (like Balance that provides two watertight environments: a personal "do what you want" and a work "do what we grant" on the same device: think BYOD). Add to this the QNX effect that will provide a new vision of what "ecosystem" means; QNX powered devices (car infotainment, for instance) will provide an enhanced interoperability between devices and cross-devices apps compatibility (this is mid-term).

5. I do agree that the window is tight and timing will be the key. On timing side, many seems to forget that users will wait for their carrier plan renewal date to switch device, and this appends every single month. This will smooth what some named a "bleeding" (I presume they are mostly referring to N.A figures). Newcomers (that likely jump on innovation) will also count: in an amazingly growing world market these are the key for success.

6. The rest of the world ... 60% of RIM's devices incomes. RIM's new OS is designed to offer high performances on high to mid/low devices range. They will (to be confirmed) also support multiple network infrastructures (2G,3G,4G,LTE) with a single device (Paratek's adaptative technology). This will make RIM's products the "device of choice" for emerging countries and worldwide travelers (i.e international companies).

These points makes me a long "investor", because I believe the success is possible and if I'm right, I will probably get a two digit raise on my reasonable (not to say tiny) position.
This will probably not fit with general investment rules - as many would call the stock "toxic" and prefer to speculate on other products with a far more "easy" gains forecast - but I see the situation as an entrepreneur : "there's an opportunity here. I won't bet my shirt ... but count me in".

I claim that the market (for its own good) should play this way and retrieve the virtuous association between investment and enterprises: put your money where there is a potential growth, not where you expect bankruptcy and short-term bearish plans.

disclosure : I'm long RIM and not affiliated to RIM in any way. My average stock value is just under $10.

[cgk]

So far, SAM won

Sort of - they won in volume but that contains a lot of low margin items, in terms of actual profits, Apple is way way out in front.

4. At the same time, RIM is about to offer nor an update or an upgrade but a whole (from devices to back-end) new platform, filled with a new paradigm

What about the mobile sector or indeed any consumer electronics sector suggests that have a 'new paradigm' leads to success? I honestly think people are over-egging the OS stuff, as long as it's "good enough", marketing, promotional activities, the availability of apps and other things are more important.

The rest of the world ... 60% of RIM's devices incomes.

When the devices are sold at cost or near cost - what does that actually say about their ability to sell phones at a premium and decent margins?


(I'm bring argumentative for the sake of being augmentative - nice post and good analysis).

[grunt0300]

I'm not a trader, and I must admit most of the metrics enlighten investors give are beyond my knowledge.
My current reflexion/position is based on the points below :

1. Even with the massive success of the iPhone5 being upgraded to current (Android) standards, you can easily note that the overall perception of this new iphone iteration is mitigated. While consumers will buy it (I call it a brand love act), even the most enthusiastic fans won't repeat the 4 - 4S - 5 "update not upgrade" forever. I mean there is an erosion of apple's innovative/revolutionary image; Tim Cook isn't Steve.
As of date, statements like "APPL is now alike RIM's 2005 position" will be accurate IF they don't innovate (for real).

2. War is declared between APPL and Samsung. So far, SAM won and is #1 worldwide. It's known for its aggressiveness, APPL is too. These companies will fight on every fronts to gain/keep the leadersheep (not it's not a typo: some geek humor); this have a cost, both on image and operational sides.

3. MS and RIM are in a "non aggressive" (at least) competition. While each promotes its platform, we can see that they are collaborating on many fronts (office365, ActiveSync, exFAT) to make their environments seamlessly "compatible". My angle about this is that, while two leaders are fighting, they are pushing to create some extra room in #3 "pool" position, filled with RIM and MS powered devices (Nokia ?) duet.

4. At the same time, RIM is about to offer nor an update or an upgrade but a whole (from devices to back-end) new platform, filled with a new paradigm (U.I, real multitasking promoted as "the flow") and novel functionalities (like Balance that provides two watertight environments: a personal "do what you want" and a work "do what we grant" on the same device: think BYOD). Add to this the QNX effect that will provide a new vision of what "ecosystem" means; QNX powered devices (car infotainment, for instance) will provide an enhanced interoperability between devices and cross-devices apps compatibility (this is mid-term).

5. I do agree that the window is tight and timing will be the key. On timing side, many seems to forget that users will wait for their carrier plan renewal date to switch device, and this appends every single month. This will smooth what some named a "bleeding" (I presume they are mostly referring to N.A figures). Newcomers (that likely jump on innovation) will also count: in an amazingly growing world market these are the key for success.

6. The rest of the world ... 60% of RIM's devices incomes. RIM's new OS is designed to offer high performances on high to mid/low devices range. They will (to be confirmed) also support multiple network infrastructures (2G,3G,4G,LTE) with a single device (Paratek's adaptative technology). This will make RIM's products the "device of choice" for emerging countries and worldwide travelers (i.e international companies).

These points makes me a long "investor", because I believe the success is possible and if I'm right, I will probably get a two digit raise on my reasonable (not to say tiny) position.
This will probably not fit with general investment rules - as many would call the stock "toxic" and prefer to speculate on other products with a far more "easy" gains forecast - but I see the situation as an entrepreneur : "there's an opportunity here. I won't bet my shirt ... but count me in".

I claim that the market (for its own good) should play this way and retrieve the virtuous association between investment and enterprises: put your money where there is a potential growth, not where you expect bankruptcy and short-term bearish plans.

disclosure : I'm long RIM and not affiliated to RIM in any way. My average stock value is just under $10.

Wow. So you admit that you are not a trader. I thought that all this time you were really Charles Schwab, with your bogus advice. Give it up already. In my opinion, you are just a BB fanboy, with a good gift of gab.

[njblackberry]

Another opportunity to Average Down (translation - crap, I bought too high) as RIM is off another 5% to $6.53.

BUY ON RUMORS; SELL ON NEWS. And today did not bring any good news.

[timmy t]

It's $6.39 now. I just bought at $6.60.

[grunt0300]

It's $6.39 now. I just bought at $6.60.

Congratulations. I'm impressed. Did you get your motivation from Superfly_FR?

[Superfly_FR]

Wow. So you admit that you are not a trader. I thought that all this time you were really Charles Schwab, with your bogus advice. Give it up already. In my opinion, you are just a BB fanboy, with a good gift of gab.

Well, maybe you could have read after the first lines ...

[Superfly_FR]

Congratulations. I'm impressed. Did you get your motivation from Superfly_FR?

If he's "motivated" by what I wrote, he's long. Then he's good, IMHO.

P.S: Isn't a playground near you ? You need some exercise and fresh air.

[OzarkaTexile]

These points makes me a long "investor", because I believe the success is possible and if I'm right, I will probably get a two digit raise on my reasonable (not to say tiny) position.
This will probably not fit with general investment rules - as many would call the stock "toxic" and prefer to speculate on other products with a far more "easy" gains forecast - but I see the situation as an entrepreneur : "there's an opportunity here. I won't bet my shirt ... but count me in".

I think this is all sane reasoning and does fit with general investment rules. You acknowledge that RIMM is a risky investment, but believe they will succeed. If RIM can manage to retake market share at reasonable margins, the stock will reflect that and you'll make money.

Right now, RIM is just a phone maker without a competitive phone. A situation they've been in for years. In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that BB10 is decent but not really a leap forward and they take 4th place. I certainly don't think RIMM stock is toxic, just risky.

[Invader3K]

I wish I had sold a few weeks back when it was around $8.00 a share. Still quite the loss from when I bought around 24.00/share, but this stock is just looking like a total loser for the foreseeable future.

[grunt0300]

If he's "motivated" by what I wrote, he's long. Then he's good, IMHO.

P.S: Isn't a playground near you ? You need some exercise and fresh air.

Keep putting up your charts on stock movements, you'll never impress me, because we both know that they're out of date as soon as they are printed. My education, plus my experience at the AMEX in N.Y.C, will tell me what to do. You should be telling the other BB fanboys, to invest with their head, not their heart. You keep your long position, and we will see what happens by March 2013. We'll talk then.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I think this is all sane reasoning and does fit with general investment rules. You acknowledge that RIMM is a risky investment, but believe they will succeed. If RIM can manage to retake market share at reasonable margins, the stock will reflect that and you'll make money.

Right now, RIM is just a phone maker without a competitive phone. A situation they've been in for years. In my opinion, the most likely scenario is that BB10 is decent but not really a leap forward and they take 4th place. I certainly don't think RIMM stock is toxic, just risky.

RIM is starting to burning through cash, don't think that 4th place will change that. They are not setup to compete as a low end hardware manufacture, and they don't have the ecosystem to support they high end devices. RIM is going to be regulated to a nich security device - they question is how much will that nich be willing to pay (on the front and back) to use that platform? A company that doesn't make money, will become pretty toxic to those that have invested into it.

But RIMM's assets do have value, depending upon how that are divested from the company...

Personally I'd wait until the next quarterly report and then buy in while it goes even lower, and then hope that a sale of the company will be announced. But then again if RIM were to start selling off assets to raise money... in the end it might not be worth anything.

On a day to day basis RIMM is a money makers, as a long term "investment" it could be considered nothing but RISKY. But of course that is where the big profits come from....

[OzarkaTexile]

RIM is starting to burning through cash, don't think that 4th place will change that. They are not setup to compete as a low end hardware manufacture, and they don't have the ecosystem to support they high end devices. RIM is going to be regulated to a nich security device - they question is how much will that nich be willing to pay (on the front and back) to use that platform? A company that doesn't make money, will become pretty toxic to those that have invested into it.

I agree. If RIM does end up in 4th place with just a fractional market share, what happens next will be very interesting. While their competitors grow larger and have more resources (cash and people), RIM gets smaller. They either shrink to a niche player, which I think just drags out the death. Or they try to adopt a startup strategy and out-innovate the competition. I don't think the second scenario is possible, so the only hope for RIM and investors is for BB10 to recapture market share.

[Superfly_FR]

Keep putting up your charts on stock movements, you'll never impress me, because we both know that they're out of date as soon as they are printed. My education, plus my experience at the AMEX in N.Y.C, will tell me what to do. You should be telling the other BB fanboys, to invest with their head, not their heart. You keep your long position, and we will see what happens by March 2013. We'll talk then.

These charts are nothing but instant situation capture, I believe we all know that.
I sometimes paste some of them here for reference or after "something special" appends (ex : the ip5 launch).
You could be surprised with the cash figures next Tuesday (what's your bet ?).
It's not an heart investment. If you really want to bring it to the emotional side, let's say it's a faith commitment.

[Superfly_FR]

I agree. If RIM does end up in 4th place with just a fractional market share, what happens next will be very interesting. While their competitors grow larger and have more resources (cash and people), RIM gets smaller. They either shrink to a niche player, which I think just drags out the death. Or they try to adopt a startup strategy and out-innovate the competition. I don't think the second scenario is possible, so the only hope for RIM and investors is for BB10 to recapture market share.

Depends on how MS and RIM will collaborate ... I believe they can seal a "sacred union" as - so far - nothing really indicates they are aggressive against each other.

[cgk]

What happened today? I don't see any fresh rumours or similar.

[cgk]

RIM is starting to burning through cash, don't think that 4th place will change that. They are not setup to compete as a low end hardware manufacture, and they don't have the ecosystem to support they high end devices.

I'm not even sure that Samsung is making any money out of their low-end smart-phones and they have economics of scale inaccessible to RIM - it's hard to tell from the financial reports.

[njblackberry]

What happened today? I don't see any fresh rumours or similar.

Today - nothing between MS and RIM.
Stock is down due to the outage in EMEA.

[MisterMe11]

Service outage in Europe did it I assume (see Crackberry front page)

What happened today? I don't see any fresh rumours or similar.

[BoldPreza]

I wish I had sold a few weeks back when it was around $8.00 a share. Still quite the loss from when I bought around 24.00/share, but this stock is just looking like a total loser for the foreseeable future.

Do not expect any type of real gain or even stability for the next 12 months. At least.

[grunt0300]

These charts are nothing but instant situation capture, I believe we all know that.
I sometimes paste some of them here for reference or after "something special" appends (ex : the ip5 launch).
You could be surprised with the cash figures next Tuesday (what's your bet ?).
It's not an heart investment. If you really want to bring it to the emotional side, let's say it's a faith commitment.

You would be surprised how many people don't know what instant situation capture is. You may not be doing it intentionally, but a lot of people are getting a false sense of security, when they see those charts, and read your comments. You could be leading people down the wrong path, and all because you love BB so much. I'll make a crazy prediction...If BB10 is not well received, Rim will be sold, and the Canadian Government won't even try to block the sale!!!

It's the oldest, and most quoted line in business.. MONEY TALKS, AND BULLS**T WALKS.

[kwm1337]

Does anyone realized the cost of equity to RIM?? By buying shares you may see it as support, but honestly it can be a more expensive way of raising capital. If you love RIM so much my full hearted recommendation is to see if you can get in on some institutional debt instrument buying, like bonds... The only problem for you as an investor though is RIM has virtually 0 debt in bonds. So this is really a "Catch 22"...

Do you think RIM needs extra capital raised to be successful? I do not. I think their strength lies in strong Intellectual Property development and services rendered beyond their tangible sales [i.e. phones]

So in a sense people from all walks of institutional investments, activist investors, on all sides of the market are buying RIM to include their outstandings. As individuals buy up those outstanding that does cost RIM in the end. The hope is they can make enough back so that everyone may have some gains, but until then that equity comes at a much higher cost than supporting RIM in other ways.

No matter how a company conventionally raises money [including from equity markets] it does cost them... So unless you think they need to raise capital in equities to stay a float, I would say an argument could be made that it hurts RIM, but indeed it seems like it is the thought of symbolic support.

RIM For the Win!!

[Superfly_FR]

You would be surprised how many people don't know what instant situation capture is. You may not be doing it intentionally, but a lot of people are getting a false sense of security, when they see those charts, and read your comments. You could be leading people down the wrong path, and all because you love BB so much. I'll make a crazy prediction...If BB10 is not well received, Rim will be sold, and the Canadian Government won't even try to block the sale!!!

It's the oldest, and most quoted line in business.. MONEY TALKS, AND BULLS**T WALKS.

Don't under-estimate people logic. I believe if someone has the intention to put money in a stock (even more if they don't know about trading), they will read how-to and at least some pro and cons. I believe I've been warning all along (or such) about the risk and the absolute prudence one must have with any investment ( roughly : never put more than 15% of your available cash).
Now, I've also stated that my position is based on the fact that BB10 will succeed. If it doesn't, I agree this is a totally different story. Yet, RIMs assets are not valued $0 and bankruptcy isn't a serious option IMHO, so that with my current avg level, I could lose money, but not the whole thing.

Thanks for letting me repeat it again.

[Superfly_FR]

Does anyone realized the cost of equity to RIM?? By buying shares you may see it as support, but honestly it can be a more expensive way of raising capital. If you love RIM so much my full hearted recommendation is to see if you can get in on some institutional debt instrument buying, like bonds... The only problem for you as an investor though is RIM has virtually 0 debt in bonds. So this is really a "Catch 22"...

Do you think RIM needs extra capital raised to be successful? I do not. I think their strength lies in strong Intellectual Property development and services rendered beyond their tangible sales [i.e. phones]

So in a sense people from all walks of institutional investments, activist investors, on all sides of the market are buying RIM to include their outstandings. As individuals buy up those outstanding that does cost RIM in the end. The hope is they can make enough back so that everyone may have some gains, but until then that equity comes at a much higher cost than supporting RIM in other ways.

No matter how a company conventionally raises money [including from equity markets] it does cost them... So unless you think they need to raise capital in equities to stay a float, I would say an argument could be made that it hurts RIM, but indeed it seems like it is the thought of symbolic support.

RIM For the Win!!

You are technically right.
But it's also about perception and engagement.
I wish I had the skills to raise a "fan fund" ... but I really don't.

[sugbo]

The saying of investor Mohnish Pabrai and his investment approach, "heads I win, tails I dont lose much" sounds for RIMM at current price levels: "heads I win huge, tails I have a reasonable profit." If RIMM can regain its position again as the no. 1 or 2 in the Smartphone world the upside is enormous. If BB10 is not successful RIMM still has its valuable assets and is still a going concern with a hugh free cashflow. Thats another lie you can read everywhere, RIMM is burning cash. One look at the CFS, tells you the opposite. Possible companies who have an interest in RIMM are patiently waiting how BB10 plays out, so a take over bid is not imminent. Besides that, I am pretty sure the RIMM board will refuse. The chances of a bidding war are hugh if BB10 doesnt take off coz the company (Apple, Google, MSFT, Samsung and a few more) that can pick up RIMM may well be the company that's going to dominate the smartphone business globally. RIMM is in a key position.

For investors in RIMM it should be a relief that they have Prem Watsa on board both as investor and director. He can tell a thing or two about customer care, running the business efficiently etc. One can argue that Watsa bought most of his shares too expensive. But I know investing in a company for Watsa (and his team) means totally taking the company and the branch of industry apart. So the doubling down in July is a big vote of confidence. Btw since the eighties Watsa is involved in investing/turning around tech companies, so he is highly experienced in that field.

So, this is my two cents...