[morlock_man]

Yesterday, someone commented that the stock would bounce on the announcement of a 4G tablet in Australia. Delusional.

That was likely me. Care to make it a bet?

Why wouldn't RIM launch a 4G tablet in a market that doesn't have one?

[cgk]

But why will it sell? By your logic, people should already be buying the 4g android tablets that exist in OZ but they aren't they are selecting 3g Ipads instead.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[OzarkaTexile]

That was likely me. Care to make it a bet?

Why wouldn't RIM launch a 4G tablet in a market that doesn't have one?

I'm not saying RIM won't launch a 4G tablet in Australia. It might even be a huge hit. (Ignoring the fact that 3G and 4G tablets are a fractional part of the overall tablet market, and ignoring the fact that the Playbook's market share is so small it's not even measured.)

But it won't change the stock price.

[hpjrt]

And if the stock goes down tomorrow, you could lose money. RIMM is a risky investment.

You are aware, aren't you, that investing in stocks is, by it's nature, "risky"? Depending upon how you purchase just about any stock on the market, you are betting that it will either go up or down. That's the nature of the beast.

The trick is that an investment is really only a loss or a gain when the investor sells the stock. Up until that point, it's only a loss or gain on paper ...

If a stock has dipped, the guy who has "lost" based on his buy-in price simply sits on it until it rises. If said investor goes into panic mode and sells then the loss is measurable.

That said, anyone who invests anything in the stock market that they aren't prepared to lose is foolish.

[morlock_man]

I'm not saying RIM won't launch a 4G tablet in Australia. It might even be a huge hit. (Ignoring the fact that 3G and 4G tablets are a fractional part of the overall tablet market, and ignoring the fact that the Playbook's market share is so small it's not even measured.)

But it won't change the stock price.

Really though, wanna bet on it?

Any investors who were going to ditch the stock based on early impressions from the developer conference likely did so this week. The stock is currently trading upwards from the days open. Right now I'm betting it closes for the day high as more investors speculate on this 'lowest in a decade' stock price.

It's the Monday reveal that gets me. If they launch a 4G tablet at half the price point of a new iPad, they'll be laughing as sales roll in. They're targetting business specifically, but the consumer market will make use of the product just the same. The poor market acceptance over the last year has hurt the image of the product, not the reality of the situation.

[randall2580]

What RIMM did this week is a double edged sword. Showing off the new software might stem the tide of defections, especially in the USA if as Kevin indicated there was good BES presence at the expo and they liked what they saw. What it also means is anyone who was on the fence about buying a BB phone just got pushed off in the favor of waiting on BB10. It means at least 2 more bad quarters and is the reason RIMM stopped giving guidance. It means the numbers you are working with, the multiples etc don't work. I said before in trading we know scale down buying can be very painful, as it is now with a new 52 week low as I write this. When the phones are out, selling and well received you will have plenty of time to buy a healthy stock the same way you did for Apple - all the way up ...

[notfanboy]

You are aware, aren't you, that investing in stocks is, by it's nature, "risky"? Depending upon how you purchase just about any stock on the market, you are betting that it will either go up or down. That's the nature of the beast.

The trick is that an investment is really only a loss or a gain when the investor sells the stock. Up until that point, it's only a loss or gain on paper ...

If a stock has dipped, the guy who has "lost" based on his buy-in price simply sits on it until it rises. If said investor goes into panic mode and sells then the loss is measurable.

That said, anyone who invests anything in the stock market that they aren't prepared to lose is foolish.

That is how people rationalize losses in their investment portfolio, but it is an incomplete view though. The other side of the coin is what else you could be doing with your money. True it's a paper loss as long as you hold on to your fallen RIMM stock. But don't forget you are incurring a real loss at the same time because that money could have been placed in another, better investment.

[app_Developer]

When the phones are out, selling and well received you will have plenty of time to buy a healthy stock the same way you did for Apple - all the way up ...

Excellent point. The recovery won't be instant. Those who bought AAPL around $100 on the way back up didn't make as much as those who were in at $5 or $25, but they've still done pretty well.

[OzarkaTexile]

If they launch a 4G tablet at half the price point of a new iPad, they'll be laughing as sales roll in. They're targetting business specifically, but the consumer market will make use of the product just the same. The poor market acceptance over the last year has hurt the image of the product, not the reality of the situation.

Delusional. The market has universally rejected the Playbook. There's no reason why a 4G version at any price is suddenly going to fly off the shelves. And let's not forget that Australia is a tiny market. There just aren't enough people in Australia to move the needle on RIM's profit even if the Playbook becomes wildly successful there. And let's not forget that RIM is selling the Playbook at or below cost, but unlike Amazon, they don't have any aftermarket content play for loss-leading hardware.

[morlock_man]

Delusional. The market has universally rejected the Playbook. There's no reason why a 4G version at any price is suddenly going to fly off the shelves. And let's not forget that Australia is a tiny market. There just aren't enough people in Australia to move the needle on RIM's profit even if the Playbook becomes wildly successful there. And let's not forget that RIM is selling the Playbook at or below cost, but unlike Amazon, they don't have any aftermarket content play for loss-leading hardware.

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

Australia may be a tiny market, but the EU isn't. Apple can't deliver 4G in there either. Apple and RIM aren't in the same ballpark when it comes to security, which one of the keystones for business-related technology.

Also, you're still talking about consumer content, not pure workhorse functionality.

[FSeverino]

And if the stock goes down tomorrow, you could lose money. RIMM is a risky investment.




Yesterday, someone commented that the stock would bounce on the announcement of a 4G tablet in Australia. Delusional.

DId you not read my post?
ANY INVESTMENT is a RISK... it is called the stock MARKET, and anything in any MARKET can go up or down.

My point was that it MAY go lower, but i think the chance of it getting to at least $20 EVEN if it goes a bit lower before that, is very good. I even said that YES it would be good to wait in case it goes lower. But for people who always wait until it goes lower... what happens if tomorrow is the day it starts its climb to $100 and NEVER gets below $12 again, are you not 'losing money' by paying more for the stock because you waited for it?

People need to realize that there is NEVER a sure bet in the stock market. Yes, Apple made LOTS of money for people... but AT THAT TIME those people were taking a RISK.
I know that my opinion doesnt really hold any ground because I dont own any stock at all, but that is only because I have not seen a 'risk worth taking' that is affordable to someone in my position.

At $12 I can easily afford 200 stocks, where as if i were to go with apple I would be buying 4 stocks. If the RIMM stock hits $14 I will make 400, if Apple hits $600 I will make $160. I would need Apple to hit $700 to make $600 on Apple stock. So what is more of a risk? Betting on a company that is going down in stock price with nothing new coming out in the near future, at 47 times the cost of RIMM... or betting on RIM to raise its stock only $2 with the release of an entirely new OS and under new direction?

Further, if RIMM hits $20 in a while...which I believe it will. I will have a profit of $1600.
with the same investment in Apple I would need that stock to hit about $950, which is $300 OVER the highest it has ever been.

Again... will Apple rise $300 above its top mark with no new releases until iPhone 5, or will RIMM go up $10 with its 'reinvention'? I think it is completely plausible to say that RIMM will hit $20 before Apple hits $1000.

[Agian, only using apple because it is the thing most often being used]

[Superfly_FR]

That is how people rationalize losses in their investment portfolio, but it is an incomplete view though. The other side of the coin is what else you could be doing with your money. True it's a paper loss as long as you hold on to your fallen RIMM stock. But don't forget you are incurring a real loss at the same time because that money could have been placed in another, better investment.

This is absolutely true ... if you play "big" numbers enough. On my point of view, taxes and fees will considerably cut any benefit of a transitional investment.
I know many of you are experienced with financial strategies and give general good advices, thanks for that; learning is always positive.
But please remember that - in the context of this thread - most of "us" are talking about a few hundred bucks: my call transaction, for instance, cost me around $20 (due to non UE stock exchange fees). Selling will approx. cost the same (the biggest part of it is fixed fee).

So, we have to target a two digits raise, at least, if we want to make profit ... which is btw not the main target of my/our action here ...

P.S: this means that I/we keep in mind that the money we may invest here should be fully available and from only a small part of what we have in cash (say - under 15%). Going further would be much too risky for a non diversified wallet, IMHO.

[cgk]

I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

Australia may be a tiny market, but the EU isn't. Apple can't deliver 4G in there either. Apple and RIM aren't in the same ballpark when it comes to security, which one of the keystones for business-related technology.

Also, you're still talking about consumer content, not pure workhorse functionality.

Unless I am mistaken, neither can RIM for a really good reason...

[morlock_man]

Unless I am mistaken, neither can RIM for a really good reason...

I believe you're mistaken.

But whats your reasoning?

[cgk]

What EU countries currently have 4G networks?

[morlock_man]

What EU countries currently have 4G networks?

Apple's iPad 3 is NOT compatible with UK and EU 4G networks

In fact, despite where and where not 4G coverage is available in the UK, or in fact, most of Europe, the current iPad will never function in 4G. In America and Canada, 4G runs on the 700Mhz and 2,100MHz spectrums, the only two supported by the iPad. In Germany, for example, with the only fully functional 4G network in Europe, the spectrums 800MHz, 1,800MHz and 2,600MHz are used. Likewise, current UK trials are for the 1,800MHz spectrum, with future bids covering the same range as Germany.

Under Jobs, this oversight would have never happened. It's just a sign of the post-Jobs Apple.

And the fact that Germany has one of the only fully rolled out 4G networks could be why Nokia was so quick to file a patent suit there this week, in anticipation of the 4G Playbook rolling out next week.

[sinsin07]

Unless I am mistaken, neither can RIM for a really good reason...

I believe you're mistaken.

But whats your reasoning?

What EU countries currently have 4G networks?

Here is a list:

Countries with 4g networks
3GPP Long Term Evolution Country Map

[cgk]

Nice attempt at a dodge - so how is RIM going to steal a march when there is no infrastructure in place expect in Germany? By the time, the infrastructure is available (depending on legal aspects, we might might have a 4g network in the UK at the end of 2013 on some small scale), they can release a ipad that does feature the right radio - that's why there is no real advantage to RIM in the way you suggest. They can't steal a march because there is nothing to work with.

Here is a list:

Sorry, I should have made it clear, I already know the answer.

[sinsin07]

Nice attempt at a dodge - so how is RIM going to steal a march when there is no infrastructure in place expect in Germany? By the time, the infrastructure is available (depending on legal aspects, we might might have a 4g network in the UK at the end of 2013 on some small scale), they can release a ipad that does feature the right radio - that's why there is no real advantage to RIM in the way you suggest. They can't steal a march because there is nothing to work with.

Sorry, I should have made it clear, I already know the answer.

LOL Opps Sorry. I guess the the other poster should have checked first before asking the question. Reminds me of a criminal case I once saw. Something about a glove not fitting. i.e. Never ask a witness a question you don't know the answer to. LOL

Edit: Apologies again, I should have recognized your handle and phone, and knowing that I would have remembered your locations. LOL. What are you in stealth mode? Where's your avatar?

[cgk]

I actually only came across here to ask a couple of questions about my niece and my other half and what blackberries they should get next but you know me I Iove to talk about the mobile sector.

Also I find it interesting the threads here are like the ones that happened with WebOS over at WebOSnation (why Samsung should pair with rim, why amazon should pair with rim etc etc) but •before• BB10 has launched rather than after it has failed in the market! (not saying BB10 will fail but that is when these sorts of threads appeared on webosnation).


Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[Superfly_FR]

What EU countries currently have 4G networks?

SFR, in France is currently deploying it. The 3 major carriers just bought the license (yes, in FR, there is a regulation over frequencies ... we talk about € billions).

(French wikipedia, translated)

In France, ARCEP has awarded licenses to operators 4G LTE in late 2011. The auction reported to the state over $ 3.5 billion.

Result2 of the first tender for 4G frequency of 2600 MHz as follows:

Bouygues Telecom gets 15 MHz duplex for € 228 011 012;
Free Mobile gets 20 MHz duplex for € 271 million;
Orange gets 20 MHz duplex for € 287 118 501;
SFR gets 15 MHz duplex for € 150 million. The subsidiary of Vivendi is also the only operator not signed commitment to host virtual operators (MVNO) on its network.

A total of € 936 129 513.

Outcome 3 of the second tender for the 4G 800 MHz band, released by the cessation of analogue terrestrial television (digital dividend) is as follows:

Bouygues Telecom gets 10 MHz duplex for € 683 087 000;
Orange gets 10 MHz duplex for € 891 000 005;
SFR gets 10 MHz duplex (two blocks of 5 MHz) for € 1.065 billion;
Free Mobile does not get in this band but has access to the roaming network of 800 MHz SFR.

A total of € 2,639,087,005.

Overall distribution of frequencies for 4G in France: 30% for Orange, SFR 25%, 25% for Bouygues, 20% Free Mobile.

[cgk]

But again, it's not going to be up and running before 2013 and initially it's going to be in two cities (for SFR), and the other licensees could be further out so that does not provide RIM with any first-mover advantage over apple as suggested by the poster above.

[Superfly_FR]

But again, it's not going to be up and running before 2013 and initially it's going to be in two cities (for SFR), and the other licensees could be further out so that does not provide RIM with any first-mover advantage over apple as suggested by the poster above.

Launch (SFR+Orange) : Marseille (850K+ residents) in June.
10 major cities between then and December.
Note that we have the (almost) countrywide HSPA+ (42 Mb/s) option also ...

[cgk]

Those are test networks, it's not going to be live live until 2013:

Une semaine tout juste apr�s Bouygues T�l�com et huit jours apr�s Orange, SFR a pr�cis� � son tour, jeudi 29 mars, son agenda de d�ploiement du tr�s haut d�bit mobile. Le deuxi�me op�rateur de t�l�communications fran�ais, derri�re Orange, a annonc� l'ouverture commerciale, d�but 2013, de son r�seau mobile de 4�me g�n�ration (4G), qui permettra de surfer via son t�l�phone aussi vite, voire davantage, que depuis un ordinateur reli� au Web via une liaison ADSL. Des tests grandeur nature seront effectu�s, dans le courant de l'ann�e 2012, � Montpellier et Lyon.

Concernant la 4G, des tests en conditions r�elles d�buteront � Marseille en juin, un d�ploiement dans quatre autres villes de France dans les mois qui suivront, et un lancement commercial d�but 2013. Bouygues T�l�com, qui est rest� plus discret sur son offre de "3G am�lior�e", dit tester la 4G � Lyon d�s juin en conditions r�elles, pour un lancement commercial d�but 2013, voire fin 2012...

SFR d�ploiera sa t�l�phonie mobile 4G d�but 2013

As for HSDPA+, I belive the ipad 3 will work with that.

[Superfly_FR]

Wanna know what this thread is all about ?
I scrape the bottom of the barrel. And I double under 10.

Disclaimer: this is NOT anyhow an advice.