[needforbbx]

So any amateur market technicians want to give their current outlook on how the charts are looking? This is an art, so open to different interpretations (don't mock - I just enjoy reading the charts). I've attached my technical take (a bit blurry, but had to keep shrinking the file to upload). I'm just curious how others are reading things. Basically I see two downward trend lines with the first line broken and consolidating around the second one. A break above the second blue line and then above the 18 range would be a good sign - but still lots resistance on the upward move. Meanwhile Apple's stock looks overbought on the RSI. I don't own shares in either.

[app_Developer]

My guess is because it is an OS upgrade for people who already have the device.

It has the potential of raising the stock price if it generates new sales; however, it is too early to tell how many new sales will occur. Maybe in a month or too there will be a better indication of the new OSes impact on sales.

I think it has to generate not just new sales, but allow higher prices/margin as well. Otherwise, this doesn't add much at all to the bottom line.

Or maybe RIM just accepts that the Playbook is really just a prototype program for BB10, and not really a profit center on its own.

[OMGitworks]

So any amateur market technicians want to give their current outlook on how the charts are looking? This is an art, so open to different interpretations (don't mock - I just enjoy reading the charts). I've attached my technical take (a bit blurry, but had to keep shrinking the file to upload). I'm just curious how others are reading things. Basically I see two downward trend lines with the first line broken and consolidating around the second one. A break above the second blue line and then above the 18 range would be a good sign - but still lots resistance on the upward move. Meanwhile Apple's stock looks overbought on the RSI. I don't own shares in either.

Sorry, I can't see the chart that well. A few days ago I posted that I thought it would be range bound between 12-18. I'd buy if it got down near 13 and sell at 17.... I have been "gambling" (as opposed to investing) using call options to do this but the recent optimism after the 1st of the year has pushed the price of the options up so the value isn't there as it once was. I think it is going to be very hard to get RIMM over $20 for any sustained period of time this year unless there is a takeover. There are some big players with major shareholdings who have already lost a lot of money on RIMM so I expect them to do what they can to get out whole. For most of them RIMM has to get above 30-40 so they are a long way from home on that trade and not lilely to agree to a takeover in the $20's unless they turn very pessimistic on RIMM . Just my 2 cents....

[OMGitworks]

Or maybe RIM just accepts that the Playbook is really just a prototype program for BB10, and not really a profit center on its own.

This is a great observation and likely very true at this point. Its hard to see how the PB competes. OS2 is better but still not a game changer. Equally hard to see how BB10 gets RIMM back in the game, but maybe and hopefully it can.

[moretreelessbush]

RIM has fallen quite a bit in the last couple of weeks, anyway waiting to get in?

[app_Developer]

RIM has fallen quite a bit in the last couple of weeks, anyway waiting to get in?

I am. I wonder if the next report in 3 weeks is already priced in. (assuming it will show an EPS of around 80-85 cents)

[OMGitworks]

I am. I wonder if the next report in 3 weeks is already priced in. (assuming it will show an EPS of around 80-85 cents)

Nope, not yet. Down almost 4% ($13.60) this morning as analysts predict RIMM will have to pre-announce dreadful quarterly earnings.

Let's just hope if/when they do pre-announce they aim low and don't pre-announce only to actually come in worse when they report the actual numbers. They violated this cardinal rule of Wall Street last Q with pretty brutal results.

[addicted44]

I'm not doing this in a speculative vision, just a support action.

Could someone here please explain to me how buying shares in the secondary market helps RIM?

[addicted44]

If you support RIM the best way to help them is to tell your friends about how awesome the OS7 devices and the Playbook really are.
Unless you are a very large purchaser of shares that will not help RIM (it may help you but only time will tell).

Good point. Spreading the word is the best way to support RIM. Not buying shares in the secondary market (even as a big time investor...).

[brucep1]

Could someone here please explain to me how buying shares in the secondary market helps RIM?

Simple answer, it doesn't.

[Superfly_FR]

Could someone here please explain to me how buying shares in the secondary market helps RIM?

Maybe the title describes more what is in my mind : supporting is not helping.
Is this a willing act to state : "Guys, we're behind" with no real effect (and I don't care) ? Probably.
And about spreading the word and buying the devices ... well, I may say I did my part, too

[app_Developer]

Maybe the title describes more what is in my mind : supporting is not helping.
Is this a willing act to state : "Guys, we're behind" with no real effect (and I don't care) ? Probably.
And about spreading the word and buying the devices ... well, I may say I did my part, too

I think I understand. You believe in a RIM turnaround, and you, and others on this thread, are making a strong statement to that effect by putting your own money behind that statement.

I hope for your sake and theirs that they get the guidance correct for the next quarter. They've made a disturbing pattern over the past year of having to warn on results a few times now. That uncertainty must be putting an unnecessary further drag on the stock.

This either means RIM's internal checks are not functioning properly (they keep thinking they are selling more than they actually are) or they haven't learned the lesson yet that it is generally better to be conservative and then outperform expectations.

It will be interesting to see what RIM says for FY2013 in a few weeks. I hope they are very conservative and realistic in their guidance. That might hurt in the short run, but in the long run I think it's a better idea.

[Superfly_FR]

I think I understand. You believe in a RIM turnaround, and you, and others on this thread, are making a strong statement to that effect by putting your own money behind that statement.

Exactly.
This thread has 2 different readers and contributors types.
Those, like me, that does not act as educated "speculators", but like blind (?) supporters.
Others, aware of financial market, some pro, some con, brought their technical vision here. I'm grateful they did, I learned a little more.

But the case was settled for me even before I wrote this post; it's not rational, it's emotional. I know it's bad ... That's just the way it is and was already in #1 post :
Call me a dreamer, a fanatic, a fool or whatever
Should I have been more clear ?

[moretreelessbush]

Not sure if ppl have noticed, after a short rebound, Nokia has also been falling even though its windows phone sales are ramping up. Nokia also put its bet on Europe and emerging markets, kind of similar to RIMM.

[addicted44]

Exactly.
This thread has 2 different readers and contributors types.
Those, like me, that does not act as educated "speculators", but like blind (?) supporters.
Others, aware of financial market, some pro, some con, brought their technical vision here. I'm grateful they did, I learned a little more.

But the case was settled for me even before I wrote this post; it's not rational, it's emotional. I know it's bad ... That's just the way it is and was already in #1 post :
Call me a dreamer, a fanatic, a fool or whatever
Should I have been more clear ?

That makes sense. I never thought of it that way. I guess it is supposed to be both symbolic support, as well as "putting your money where your mouth is".

As a supporter, I think it makes a lot of sense. If RIM fails, well, at least you did your part. If they succeed, and rise, well, you can say you were there from the beginning, and hey, you also have a lot more money to show for it!

I would recommend only putting highly disposable income towards this though.

[Superfly_FR]

I would recommend only putting highly disposable income towards this though.

+1000
#1:
Disclaimer : buying shares is a high risk action that must not be done unless the money you engage is under 5% of your personal liquid assets. By no mean I intend to forecast a raise of the shares or any kind of advantage. Be aware that You can lose everything and I won't be responsible for this in any circumstance.

[princesultan]

nothing but bad news for the foreseeable horizon. i regret ever investing in rim, but we'll see.

[Superfly_FR]

nothing but bad news for the foreseeable horizon. i regret ever investing in rim, but we'll see.

Sorry if you are in trouble with this position now ...
Just to precise that when this thread started, the share was around $18.

[app_Developer]

Well, it's certainly very tempting again at $13.60.

The question is just how bad was this past quarter? May be better to wait until the report I guess.

I would think at this price we'll see a bunch of takeover rumors again.

[ccbs]

I will wait.
Rumor has it that this and next quarter will be a blood bath and the rapidly deteriorating sale of BB phones will only accelerate closer to the launch of the BB10 phone. The next quarter forecast will likely be quite bad, and devices sale may drop to under 10 million. One potential critical hit is on losing high margin BIS revenue. If one carefully examine last report, it is obvious that without the 1 billion BIS service revenue, RIMM will be operating in red. In addition, in order to push devices sale still in the channel, RIMM will have no choice but to drop average selling price (ASP) of the phone.
I think the next cloudy forecast will cause a selling panic that hopefully pushes the price to way below $12. That is when I will get in.

[Superfly_FR]

Question to finance specialists: I've just found that RIMM stock is under very high trade volumes (and raising value) ; good ? bad ? even ? What should we think about ?
Most active Nasdaq-traded stocks - Yahoo! Finance

[BTW the 40% pros are back ]

[palmless]

Question to finance specialists: I've just found that RIMM stock is under very high trade volumes (and raising value) ; good ? bad ? even ? What should we think about ?
Most active Nasdaq-traded stocks - Yahoo! Finance

[BTW the 40% pros are back ]

Shorts buying to cover?

[OMGitworks]

Question to finance specialists: I've just found that RIMM stock is under very high trade volumes (and raising value) ; good ? bad ? even ? What should we think about ?
Most active Nasdaq-traded stocks - Yahoo! Finance

[BTW the 40% pros are back ]

High volume is usually an indicator of a more emphatic move either way, some conviction by many buyers/sellers, or large institutions getting in or out.

RIMM is down another 4% today and seems destined to test the December lows. The charts look terrible and the big investors who seemed so smart seem silly now and probably don't want to triple down.

RIMM as a company will almost certainly survive is some form. RIMM as a viable stock and investment may not make it 2 more quarters. If the next quarters are as bad as some think, they will need to seriously consider a take over, whether a hostile offer is made or not. They put 2.0 out, no positive movement. They announced large "value" investors moving in, temporary pop (probably from them buying in) and then it fades. BB10 would have to exceed all reasonable expectation to allow RIMM as a stock and investment to make any sense in its current form. Wall Street is forward looking and RIMM isn't giving it want it wants and it being severely punished for it. The best hope for investors seems to be for the price to drop some more and then a takeover offer at $20.00. For those who got in recently a small profit, for those who got in at 80,70,60,504,40,30 not so much but a forced stop to the bleeding.

Obviously JMHO, but if you take the symbol away and just look at RIMM as any other company the charts and analysts reports tell you a take over is sadly, and really the only viable option left.

[olblueyez]

What's everyone going to do when the market crashes so hard it reaches the center of the earth? Sell the paper your stocks are printed on for starting fires?

When the whales on Wall Street take a 50 or 100 trillion dollar fall and take investor money with them because they circumvented bail out policies than what will people be doing then?

Not even gold stocks will help you then.

BlackBerry 9900

[Superfly_FR]

What's everyone going to do when the market crashes so hard it reaches the center of the earth? Sell the paper your stocks are printed on for starting fires?
When the whales on Wall Street take a 50 or 100 trillion dollar fall and take investor money with them because they circumvented bail out policies than what will people be doing then?
Not even gold stocks will help you then.
BlackBerry 9900

I'll do what these f***ers have done in all previous crisis (that they intentionally orchestrated IMH&personnalO). I'll buy more at a surrealistic low cost and wait for 3-5 years.
Note that my exposure is far from 0.5% of my personal assets.
I hope nobody's crazy enough (if not a professional) to bet on any stock fluctuation for his living.