[rarsen]

BB award for < North American Safe City Solutions Industry Excellence in Best Practices >:

Frost & Sullivan 2021 Technology Innovation Leadership
https://ww2cdn.frost.com/wp-content/...d-Write-Up.pdf

[Corbu]

PR:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301315834.html

BlackBerry QNX Software Is Now Embedded In Over 195 Million Vehicles

BlackBerry QNX Royalty Revenue Backlog Increased 9% Year-Over-Year

[curves2000]

PR:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301315834.html

BlackBerry QNX Software Is Now Embedded In Over 195 Million Vehicles

BlackBerry QNX Royalty Revenue Backlog Increased 9% Year-Over-Year

So how I am reading this is that the parts and semi conductor shortage has caused a nearly $500 million royalty backlog in the pipeline. So once these cars are built and delivered, BB will get their payment?


Given the explosion in the auto market since the pandemic started, does a 9% growth rate seem a little small?

It seems like everywhere and everybody we talk to says that if these automakers could produce significantly more cars, than they would sell them.

Hopefully the backlog continues to grow and grow quicker and that the royalty stream improves.

Posted via CB10

[Seadog83]

PR:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301315834.html

BlackBerry QNX Software Is Now Embedded In Over 195 Million Vehicles

BlackBerry QNX Royalty Revenue Backlog Increased 9% Year-Over-Year

Does anyone else get frustrated over the (a cynic could say intentionally...) misleading practice of quoting cumulative numbers, vs yearly numbers? By quoting cumulative, it almost implies these are ongoing customers such as when they quote we're now in 18/20 g20 gov'ts, or 23/25 EV manufacturers, as opposed to one time meagre fees, that have already come and gone, and in some cases have zero possibility of providing any sort of future revenue.

It would be like MSFT saying "Our windows 95 business was steady for the 22nd year in a row, with 1.15 billion licenses out there"

The real numbers sadly are far less peachy, as when you're selling a product, vs a service, it's the yearly #s which are paramount, not the cumulative.

2017: 60m vehicles
2018: 120m vehicles (+60m)
2019: 150m vehicles (+30m)
2020: 175m vehicles (+25m)
2021: 195m vehicles (+20m)

Does this not imply a rather worrying trend? In much the same way that the cumulative number of BB phones ever sold is most likely still continuing to increase, it seems like a quite disingenuous and useless metric to evaluate the business.

Sadly, and I know ST is the paragon of ignorance, but I see people saying things like "it grew 9%", or "Even if they get $100/yr/car, that's almost $20b/year!"

Now, two points of light, you would generally expect increases to slow down to an eventual steady state, as # of QNX cars being scrapped, equals those being sold, as you get with any mature industry, and also, hopefully they can plant a seed, and it's forward compatible with IVY, so this can pay dividends later. Sadly, promises of "later" "next quarter" and "down the road" is all BB longs seem to know...

[Corbu]

PR:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301317067.html

BlackBerry Launches BlackBerry IVY Advisory Council to Fuel Smart Mobility Innovation

Launch partners include HERE Technologies, Cerence, TELUS, GEICO and AWS

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Does anyone else get frustrated over the (a cynic could say intentionally...) misleading practice of quoting cumulative numbers, vs yearly numbers? By quoting cumulative, it almost implies these are ongoing customers such as when they quote we're now in 18/20 g20 gov'ts, or 23/25 EV manufacturers, as opposed to one time meagre fees, that have already come and gone, and in some cases have zero possibility of providing any sort of future revenue.

It would be like MSFT saying "Our windows 95 business was steady for the 22nd year in a row, with 1.15 billion licenses out there"

The real numbers sadly are far less peachy, as when you're selling a product, vs a service, it's the yearly #s which are paramount, not the cumulative.

2017: 60m vehicles
2018: 120m vehicles (+60m)
2019: 150m vehicles (+30m)
2020: 175m vehicles (+25m)
2021: 195m vehicles (+20m)

Does this not imply a rather worrying trend? In much the same way that the cumulative number of BB phones ever sold is most likely still continuing to increase, it seems like a quite disingenuous and useless metric to evaluate the business.

Sadly, and I know ST is the paragon of ignorance, but I see people saying things like "it grew 9%", or "Even if they get $100/yr/car, that's almost $20b/year!"

Now, two points of light, you would generally expect increases to slow down to an eventual steady state, as # of QNX cars being scrapped, equals those being sold, as you get with any mature industry, and also, hopefully they can plant a seed, and it's forward compatible with IVY, so this can pay dividends later. Sadly, promises of "later" "next quarter" and "down the road" is all BB longs seem to know...

Average age of vehicles on the road.... is over 12 years at this point, so scrapping is happening at a much slower rate.

But yeah BB doesn't really tell us much of anything about all this licensing. Chen's talked about multiple licenses per car and even talked about subscription licensing where BB would get "something" for the life of the car. But how often that happens, is an unknown.

What is becoming clear is QNX's future in automotive is running out of gas. Most major manufactures are turning to AGL to build their own solutions - and most of them have more software developers working for them than all of BlackBerry (not just QNX).

Now what BlackBerry can do with IVY? Thankfully it doesn't sound like it's tied to QNX, and BlackBerry is working hard to get support for ithttps://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301317067.html But only time will tell...

[app_Developer]

Does anyone else get frustrated over the (a cynic could say intentionally...) misleading practice of quoting cumulative numbers, vs yearly numbers? By quoting cumulative, it almost implies these are ongoing customers such as when they quote we're now in 18/20 g20 gov'ts, or 23/25 EV manufacturers, as opposed to one time meagre fees, that have already come and gone, and in some cases have zero possibility of providing any sort of future revenue.

...

Now, two points of light, you would generally expect increases to slow down to an eventual steady state, as # of QNX cars being scrapped, equals those being sold, as you get with any mature industry, and also, hopefully they can plant a seed, and it's forward compatible with IVY, so this can pay dividends later. Sadly, promises of "later" "next quarter" and "down the road" is all BB longs seem to know...

So a point on 2020/21, our industry hasn't recovered yet and for some platforms we are constrained still by COVID and the chip shortage. So just keep that in mind when looking at anything auto related right now.

I don't know exactly how they measure the backlog, but that might be some spin there. As companies delay production, all of our suppliers have bigger "backlogs" because things we would have bought in Q2 are getting bumped to Q3/4. That's not a good thing, that's just the result of chip shortages, etc.

But in general, I think your analysis is spot-on. QNX is a mature business. I don't see it being a major driver of growth the way that Chen seems to think it will be. In fact, I think we'll see it slowly drift below steady state over the next 10 years (because a lot of new platforms just don't use it at all)

As for Ivy, I still doubt that will make a serious impact with existing manufacturers. What might happen is that one of the startup EV manufacturers might become big, and one of those might use Ivy. If that happens, then that would be a BB win. But I don't think we'll ever see major Ivy usage from the current major manufacturers, because the whole project is too late to be useful to us.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

As for Ivy, I still doubt that will make a serious impact with existing manufacturers. What might happen is that one of the startup EV manufacturers might become big, and one of those might use Ivy. If that happens, then that would be a BB win. But I don't think we'll ever see major Ivy usage from the current major manufacturers, because the whole project is too late to be useful to us.

Read an article the other day that there were over 1,500 EV Startups in play today. Now many of them are focused more aspects of the industry and not the cars. Building better batteries, motors, power grids or ride share networks....

Amazon is a huge backer, and buyer of Rivian, if they are "all in" with BlackBerry... I'd expect to see IVY being a part of Rivian plans.

[Corbu]

PR:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...301317931.html
Electra Vehicles, Inc. Closes $3.6 Million Seed Funding Round led by LIFTT S.p.A and BlackBerry Limited

Electra Expands AI Battery Pack Software Technology Initiatives & Opens Office in Italy

[app_Developer]

Read an article the other day that there were over 1,500 EV Startups in play today. Now many of them are focused more aspects of the industry and not the cars. Building better batteries, motors, power grids or ride share networks....

Amazon is a huge backer, and buyer of Rivian, if they are "all in" with BlackBerry... I'd expect to see IVY being a part of Rivian plans.

Rivian already has their own equivalent tech and it is already up and running.

In the future when Ivy is done will they go back and replace their existing system? Maybe

I think Ivy is a stronger idea for startups which are not as far along as that

[Seadog83]

Rivian already has their own equivalent tech and it is already up and running.

In the future when Ivy is done will they go back and replace their existing system? Maybe

I think Ivy is a stronger idea for startups which are not as far along as that

Yes, but will their tech be fully compatible from a software standpoint with every other EV out there? Or will they rely on developers to design a whole other suite of apps just for them? This looks to be the problem that IVY looks to solve in the car space, which Android did solve in the phone space, and ironically, perhaps the exact reason that BB10 floundered

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Rivian already has their own equivalent tech and it is already up and running.

In the future when Ivy is done will they go back and replace their existing system? Maybe

I think Ivy is a stronger idea for startups which are not as far along as that

I knew Rivian is up and running, as they are delivery vans to Amazon. Just "thinking" that they are still at the point where adjustments could be made on the software side of things... in the future.

Too be honest I think it's too late for most these "startups". Rivian might be fine with their niche cargo van focus, but most these others are too late now that major players are fully involved and spending billions...

Everyone wants to be the new Tesla... but they haven't put in the years or the money to get to where Tesla is now. And no longer are the major automakers "waiting" for there to be the right technology or the demand from the market.

Now China could still hold a place for QNX...

[app_Developer]

I knew Rivian is up and running, as they are delivery vans to Amazon. Just "thinking" that they are still at the point where adjustments could be made on the software side of things... in the future.

Like I said, maybe.

Here's how I see it as someone who works in this industry. BB showed up and put out a press release that said "in the future, in order to race cars you will need this amazing thing that we just discovered [..description of a transmission follows]. And we are going to start to make such a thing and we will call it Ivy!!!"

And investors rejoiced (I guess). Meanwhile, the rest of us are already in the middle of lap 10 of the race with transmissions we already designed and built and tested. Ivy doesn't exist yet. The stuff we use now does.

Now when the new Ivy transmission is finally built, will people go and replace the transmission they already have? Maybe. That's going to cost us money and risk. It better be really really amazing to justify that. But why is BB making something that has already been done. I don't understand it. When the Playbook came out, it had already been done. When BB10 finally came out, it had already been done. These things were new to BB, but not new to the world.

And the ideas behind Ivy are absolutely not new at all to our industry. This stuff was being developed even before I took this job. So I'm scratching my head. If feels like BB continues to live in its own little bubble.

[app_Developer]

Yes, but will their tech be fully compatible from a software standpoint with every other EV out there? Or will they rely on developers to design a whole other suite of apps just for them? This looks to be the problem that IVY looks to solve in the car space, which Android did solve in the phone space, and ironically, perhaps the exact reason that BB10 floundered

BB10 and Ivy are similar to me in that, in both cases, BB came out with a grand announcement that they were going to build something that largely already existed in the market. Then a couple years later they actually shipped it and another year after that they finally made it work properly. By then they were so far behind.

I think Ivy is probably going to be the same story in 2023 or whatever. I could be wrong, we'll see. I got the briefing on it, and we were all like ok, this may seem new to you guys, but we already do this today. This is how cars that are coming off the line today already work.

But anyway, they've got some interesting AI assets that they spent well over $1B to go get. I hope they find ways to turn that into a real multi-billion dollar business. I believe that's possible. I wish they could focus on that, and make things that are needed, but that don't already exist. Chen seems like a nice guy, but easily impressed by very small things in the echo chamber that is BB (that's not new at all for this company)

[curves2000]

Isn't the AGM today? If the quarterly results were impressive or anything related to the potential settlement with FB or selling assets I would have thought it would have been scheduled at the same time as the AGM ??

Or I'm I just thinking too much into it?

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Isn't the AGM today? If the quarterly results were impressive or anything related to the potential settlement with FB or selling assets I would have thought it would have been scheduled at the same time as the AGM ??

Or I'm I just thinking too much into it?

Posted via CB10

Based on the little presentation slide show... looks like IVY is the companies main focus now. Didn't directly mention SPARK at all....

Do hope they have progressed on the sale of the patents, and that it's an impressive number.

[Seadog83]

Based on the little presentation slide show... looks like IVY is the companies main focus now. Didn't directly mention SPARK at all....

Do hope they have progressed on the sale of the patents, and that it's an impressive number.

I thought it was rather well done, not even taking into account the cluster of last year's with broken everything, and being told how great the stock was doing since it was up 250% or whatever from it's 20+ year lows, while still being like 95% off it's 20 year high.

Nothing really new, rehashed a lot of the bullet points from this year's ERs, biggest thing for me was on one of the Qs, someone asked that(paraphrased) "it appeared Chen has been profit focused since he took over with break even every Q. With a new focus on growth for FY22, will that change?" Chen I felt nailed it. He said that clearly the street and shareholders don't care about being profitable by a few cents, or even having a loss of a few dollars. The only thing they care about and will reward is growth, so that's were their primary focus will be now that they have some decent products, and are financially stable enough to weather some losses if it results in more revs.

So for me it was nice for him to finally acknowledge that to reward shareholders, he may actually have to sacrifice short term profitability for the sake of growth. In his defence however, if the full suite of products were only really ready to go this year, then it would have been an inefficient use of resources at best, and an annoying time wasting tease that pissed customers off at worst if he were to invest heavily into marketing when the goose was only half cooked.

[app_Developer]

It's good to hear them talk about growth. It's not about Wall St, it's just basic common sense that none of us (even in private deals) would ever invest in a company that is barely breaking even sometimes and also not growing. You either have to be making great profits or growing. You can't just say we do neither of those.

So I'm happy to hear Chen say this! The expectations for revenue are low today, so a nice little beat there would be good on top of the message yesterday. I also hope to hear more about that AI.

[dusdal]

My main question from this earnings is how the f*ck can they have falling revenues in cybersecurity for the past 6-9 months?

[app_Developer]

My main question from this earnings is how the f*ck can they have falling revenues in cybersecurity for the past 6-9 months?

Yeah, I really hope that is addressed in the call. I won't have time to listen, but I can't wait for the transcript. Cybersecurity is a white hot segment right now.

[Chuck Finley69]

BB10 and Ivy are similar to me in that, in both cases, BB came out with a grand announcement that they were going to build something that largely already existed in the market. Then a couple years later they actually shipped it and another year after that they finally made it work properly. By then they were so far behind.

I think Ivy is probably going to be the same story in 2023 or whatever. I could be wrong, we'll see. I got the briefing on it, and we were all like ok, this may seem new to you guys, but we already do this today. This is how cars that are coming off the line today already work.

But anyway, they've got some interesting AI assets that they spent well over $1B to go get. I hope they find ways to turn that into a real multi-billion dollar business. I believe that's possible. I wish they could focus on that, and make things that are needed, but that don't already exist. Chen seems like a nice guy, but easily impressed by very small things in the echo chamber that is BB (that's not new at all for this company)

I've always been impressed with Chen for the business plan execution used to save BlackBerry Limited from bankruptcy. I think some of his "stereotype Asian bumbling" is a gimmick like in entertainment wrestling.

Chen is a good salesman with the gimmick. Hardest issue BlackBerry continues to face are deals like Ivy where even if BlackBerry has the right pieces in place, it lacks the economic resources to protect it's real estate when Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon itself come to participate.

In my opinion, if truly a solution where BlackBerry is needed, Amazon or Bezos finds the loose change in the old couch getting thrown out from the divorce. Even Bezos' ex-wife just donated to philanthropical causes, similar amount to BlackBerry market capitalization.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Yeah, I really hope that is addressed in the call. I won't have time to listen, but I can't wait for the transcript. Cybersecurity is a white hot segment right now.

Yeah it's just like with the phone business.... if you struggle during the boom, what happens later when the market cools off?

"Selling, Marketing and administration" took another big cut in Operating Expenses.... they have been trimming Administration for a year now, was there that much left? I liked that they had started spending more in that area, but suddenly they cut it by 20%?

And this QNX Blacklog... ?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Yeah, I really hope that is addressed in the call. I won't have time to listen, but I can't wait for the transcript. Cybersecurity is a white hot segment right now.

Not much in the transcript...

[app_Developer]

And this QNX Blacklog... ?

The backlog is moving up because shipments are being delayed. Every single company in our supply chain has an increased backlog because we're not shipping cars at our normal rate today. But number of vehicles in channel and on lots is also decreasing, so the backlog is real IMO. I mean those are truly delayed sales, and not lost ones for the suppliers. So I'm not worried about that at all for BB. Nor am I impressed that it went up. Like, duh, that's not a good thing. It's just a neutral thing.

3 facts about BB:

1.) They have a strong reputation and a long history in cybersecurity
2.) They spent a lot of cash on a company that has specific innovations in cybersecurity
3.) the world is making unprecedented investments in cybersecurity right now. The market is booming overall

So I have no idea why 1 + 2 + 3 isn't adding up yet for BB. Very strange.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

The backlog is moving up because shipments are being delayed. Every single company in our supply chain has an increased backlog because we're not shipping cars at our normal rate today. But number of vehicles in channel and on lots is also decreasing, so the backlog is real IMO. I mean those are truly delayed sales, and not lost ones for the suppliers. So I'm not worried about that at all for BB. Nor am I impressed that it went up. Like, duh, that's not a good thing. It's just a neutral thing.

3 facts about BB:

1.) They have a strong reputation and a long history in cybersecurity
2.) They spent a lot of cash on a company that has specific innovations in cybersecurity
3.) the world is making unprecedented investments in cybersecurity right now. The market is booming overall

So I have no idea why 1 + 2 + 3 isn't adding up yet for BB. Very strange.

What I mean about the backlog is how much will it affect future sales? After five years, will the numbers have equalize... or will there be a clear drop in sales in 2020 and 2021 that never "really" gets recovered?



Yes your #1, #2 and #3 are all correct.... But I don't see it as strange at all.

Chen's mindset is as a savior... cutting cost and reorganization. He isn't the guy to grow a business and that's the issue. When they bought Cylance it should have triggered some major spending.... somehow they managed to keep the books balanced. How? By not doing what needed to be done.... spend money! Their R&D is pretty insignificant for a company their size and in several market. And the idea that after all the years of cost cutting and consolidation that "Sales, marketing and administration" could still be cut by 20%.... What is this the 3rd year Chen's tired to say it the fault of the sales teams, and not the products?

This summed it up....



Bigger players with more money and BETTER reputations are dominating.