[_dimi_]

https://money.cnn.com/2012/07/06/tec...ttle/index.htm

A lawsuit filed by Yahoo (represented by Quinn Emanuel) against Facebook (represented by Cooley). These are the same law firms that are now again battling it out in court. Facebook also filed a counterclaim against Yahoo soon after the initial lawsuit was filed. The terms of settlement are confidential.

[Seadog83]

Here's another one of those design wins that are announced with much fanfare with little or no immediate impact on the bottom line. I've always wondered what the per vehicle revenue is to get a feel for the actual value of these deals. I don't believe Chen is like David Dodge (QNX) who famously gave away licenses for little or no money if the project seemed mildly interesting. Blackberry never divulges the basic costs for their products and I wonder if that's as confusing for customers as it is for shareholders.

Still, credit where credits due, at least this is some positive news in a business sector they have placed much faith (and shareholder investment) in.

I'm quite curious when these announcements will actually result in some sort of actual, real, measurable outcomes we can take to the bank. I think it was Einstein who said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results. Clearly the market doesn't give two ****s about these announcements, and haven't since the Baidu one over 2 years ago, yet they keep on coming...

170m vehicles is what we're in now. It's certainly not bad(or is it?), but that is the # linked to our current deplorable state, so clearly 170m vehicles isn't doing it. would 2x that amount? 3x? or is 170,010,000 that comes with this contract the magic tipping point that we needed? Who knows given how opaque everything is. However, those 10k new vehicles, amounting to a nice percentage of a percent 6% of 1% to be exact, or a 0.06% bump, but not annually, these are numbers that will span the entire history of QNX's existence.

It's like how people jokingly say they're a millionaire when they visit SE Asia since the most common bill is 100,000 Dong or whatever. On one hand sure you're a millionaire, but if your ignoring the entire other half of the equation (ie a beer costs 200,000 dong) then you're actually doing a marvelous job of throwing out words but saying absolutely nothing.

This seems to be what BB is doing. "We're in 170m cars." "we've just sold 10k more licenses". Much like a 2000s era internet company boasting about traffic, unless you can explain in detail the link from a cumulative 170m cars, or 10k licenses to Arrival, to the next logical steps, and then to $30/share, then you've just said a lot of words without telling me anything.

Hi Bacon Munchers,

What a poor performance with regards to BB stock. I feel like we need some material, exciting news here...

I also noticed that. The last page went from Jan 10-22. Almost 2 weeks for 25 posts. Time was you'd barely go a day without a new page. Though I'm as guilty as anyone I suppose. BB no longer surprises, and when it does it isn't good. So there's no real reason to agitate myself and only glance in a couple times of week.

There was a post on stock twits though that got to me, and that's for the first time ever it sparked a feeling that time is running out. Chen had ~120 months, and of that 6 years, 3 months is gone, 45 months remain.

BB is currently at $6.24, Chen's goal is $30, or $23.76/381% higher. Even had the $30 target been given in 2013, that *still* would have demanded a quadrupling in a decade - no meager pedestrian feat. Instead, (at least of a SH PoV, though groundwork had to be laid) the first 5 years were squandered, so he negotiated an equally assertive goal ($30 in 5 years, which would have still required almost a tripling based on price at time). Now, you could be forgiven for expecting him to hit the ground running given what an aggressive time line had been set, but 2 years later and the stock price has actually gone backwards by half!

This is where my concerns arose. To hit his target, the stock basically needs to go up like 55 cents or almost 10% of today's price, this month, next month, and every month for the next 45. People are talking about this like it's the next NVDA or AMD. And maybe it is, but even they didn't go up 5x over night. It still took years. People going on about how "this might be the next AMD". Unfortunately we're at the point now that unless it's the next NVDA and starting tomorrow, then $30 may simply be a bridge too far.

[YUUUUP]

OT.
Don't think this was posted yet. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/t...-earnings.html

Posted via CB10

[Seadog83]

I was looking at AMZN today since it had a great report, and it reminded me of almost exactly 2 years ago when BB was around $13, and AMZN was almost exactly 100x that. It seemed like an interesting thing to watch and made for an easy comparison. No need to rehash how that turned out.

It did get me thinking though. AMZN today is around $2000. summer '16 (3.5 years ago) it was around $750, or slightly less than a tripling. 3.5 years before that (Jan '13), it was around $250, just less than tripling again in 3.5 years. Go back one more cycle to summer of '09, and you see it again, roughly $80. It's surprisingly consistent exponential growth, spectacularly roughly tripling every 3.5 years.

The reason why I used that time frame, is because 3.5 years is roughly how much time Chen has left. This is exactly the sort of long term, exponential growth BB needs if they have any hope of hitting $30/share, except that Chen will need to go at almost double that rate.

Let that sink in. If BB, starting today, can enjoy the sort of growth that Amazon, one of the most successful poster children for the new economy has enjoyed for the last decade, continuing unabated from today until Chen's contract ends in Nov '23, then he'll be roughly half way to where he needs to be.

If Chen triples the stock today, then you'll have matched the returns of an index fund. since '13.

I'm still holding long and strong, but this q in March really needs to be a blow out grand slam with unassailable facts that BB has turned the corner, will continue to do so, and a +30% day. Even Sybase after 6.5 years while not yet achieving blow out status had left the 16 year lows behind, where as we're still flirting with the lowest points since Chen took over, and well below where it was when he started.

Even if like Sybase BB gets bought out with a good premium, the market would *still* need to value BB around $18-$25. Whether we call it $18, or whether we call it $30, time is running out and Chen needs to show how he's going to get there. 23% growth this year effected largely by Cylance, followed by 3 more of 8-15%? To me that would look like the same company as today, but maybe 50% bigger. So you have a path way to $9. Where's the other $10-20/share going to come from Chen?

[_dimi_]

That's a little more than 3,5% per month in share value increase over 45 months, which makes 30 USD per share. It should get easier once they get to meaningful revenue numbers. Getting to meaningful numbers is the hard part, profit and share price will follow...

[Seadog83]

That's a little more than 3,5% per month in share value increase over 45 months, which makes 30 USD per share. It should get easier once they get to meaningful revenue numbers. Getting to meaningful numbers is the hard part, profit and share price will follow...

I ran those numbers as well. Compounded, BB will basically have to do on a bi-monthly basis for the next 3.5 years, what one would reasonably expect the market to do in a year - but for each of those ~22 two month periods.

For so long it seemed like Chen had lots of time, so we could let share price "lumpiness" (to use Chen's word) slide. But the issue is that the various "corrective blips" never fixed themselves, and then they hurt us 2 fold and become the new normal. Both in the time burnt, and the fact that to actually get where he wants he's going to have to go that much farther.

Its like he's in a high profile race to run a 2 hour marathon. But when the starting gun goes off Chen decided to run backwards around the track. Now that he's an hour and change in, he realizes the mistake, but then decides he's actually going to bang out 1.5 marathons in the 40 minutes left.

I do genuinely believe Chen is a smart person, but even he must be feeling the noose closing in. As I mentioned in another post, we're quickly approaching a point where even a virtuoso AMD style performance won't be enough to hit $30 by 2023. I honestly don't even know how we got to this point. The options in front of Chen today are: he needs a superstar performance (doubling in 3.5 years) just to get to 5 years of dead money. He needs a tripling to match an index fund, and a quintupling to make good on what he set out to.

Even the least aggressive path forward for Chen would still necessitate a share price of at least the high teens, and then a buyout with a highish 67-75% premium. I think if he can even hit $20, people will still give him the credit of "saving blackberry", especially if a few years later the growth continues, but as it stands now, while I'll be the first to admit that he has done a lot and may very well have saved BB, he's basically delivered nothing.

[app_Developer]

I wonder what their internal goal is. $30 seems unreasonable now, for all the reasons you all have said. So what is the goal?

[Bacon Munchers]

Hi Bacon Munchers,


What a poor performance with regards to BB stock. I feel like we need some material, exciting news here...

With regards to the Facebook lawsuit. They were in court today to discuss whether they will wait for the PTAB to decide on the numerous petitions that were filed by Facebook. I hope (as does BlackBerry) that the judge decides to move forward and not wait for the verdict(s) that will come out of the Inter Partes Review, if the petitions make it that far... I have no idea how fast a court order is issued, but it will probably not take weeks?!

Both sides have filed numerous Daubert Opposition Briefs just a few days ago. These are responses to requests to strike expert opinions and certain damages that were mentioned in the Opening Briefs filed around 7th of January. BlackBerry also filed an opposition to Facebook´s motion for Summary Judgment and Motion to Strike, as they want this to go to trial. BlackBerry has responded by requesting a Summary Judgment as to No Invalidity of these patents so it´s just a chess game right now. There´s another deadline on February 6th with regards to filings for these requests, and then there´s a court date on 20th of February to make a final plea.

On 2nd of April there´s a Pre-Trial Conference ; and trial should commence on 13th of April, if the Judge decides to deny Facebook´s requests.

... To your first statement, perhaps Chen can start the SP up by firing up a blunt on video, then advise the world NOT to by BlackBerry stock. Maybe follow it up with producing his own EDM music track....


PS - thanks for the update - mate.

[early2bed]

Brutal stock price math: If the share price drops by 50% then it takes a 100% increase to just to get back to even. Even Bernie Madoff’s 1% return per month over a decade is practically impossible.

[EchoTango]

I wonder what their internal goal is. $30 seems unreasonable now, for all the reasons you all have said. So what is the goal?

In my view they are hanging on by their fingernails hoping the next quarter results won't swamp them. They really need a breakout product that leads the market instead of being one of the herd. Of course, we have been waiting for this to happen even in the good old phone days without ever seeing that big win.

That said, I'd settle for a solid incremental growth quarter with positive GAAP earnings per share.

[jones1202]

I have held BB stock for long time. Lost of course. I really miss the BB OS. Jumped to Motorola just cause I can't stand paying 500-1k for damn phone only supported for 2 years. It's hilarious to see Android releasing new OS, or Apple, to do things BB was doing 5+ years ago. If BB would have had the app environment and probably changed name they could still be huge. Almost everyone would inquire about my BB until you said "it's a Blackberry". They still make those??? Your still on a Blackberry? Loved it, miss it, but moved passed it. Not so much the Android Blackberry. I miss BB10.

Now on the stock, BB holds ALOT of patents. I hold because somewhere deep down I hope they can somehow become a huge security company. With all the ransom attacks and huge settlements due to information leaks maybe they could come back. They knew security once maybe they can figure it out again. I will continue to hold my shares as there is no point in pulling anymore. Good luck BB!!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I have held BB stock for long time. Lost of course. I really miss the BB OS. Jumped to Motorola just cause I can't stand paying 500-1k for damn phone only supported for 2 years. It's hilarious to see Android releasing new OS, or Apple, to do things BB was doing 5+ years ago. If BB would have had the app environment and probably changed name they could still be huge. Almost everyone would inquire about my BB until you said "it's a Blackberry". They still make those??? Your still on a Blackberry? Loved it, miss it, but moved passed it. Not so much the Android Blackberry. I miss BB10.

Now on the stock, BB holds ALOT of patents. I hold because somewhere deep down I hope they can somehow become a huge security company. With all the ransom attacks and huge settlements due to information leaks maybe they could come back. They knew security once maybe they can figure it out again. I will continue to hold my shares as there is no point in pulling anymore. Good luck BB!!

You can take your loss now... and invest it in something that has more potential for growth.

Problem I see is BlackBerry is a small security company that has a few products that are also offered by much larger security companies that have much broader product lines. While Cylance has a LOT of potential, it's got a lot of competition as well.... in the end I think Cylance may improve existing products and keep the compitivie... but I don't think it the golden goose.

On the Automotive front - I'm not sure if they'll ever evolve beyond running the basic systems. Embedded Android might be a big issue for them, in the UI area.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Be interesting to see if the BBMo announcement has any effect on the stock.... really shouldn't as I think that's already factored in.

[smithm565]

BlackBerry and TCL will end their handset partnership in August 2020

https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/03/bl...n-august-2020/

[Corbu]

https://twitter.com/BlackBerry/statu...33330834788352

rarsen likes this.

[_dimi_]

Could we see a hardware/smartphone patent deal...? The sale or cross-licensing of a pool of hardware-related patents to Facebook.... just dreaming of course!

[_dimi_]

It seems to me that the judge has decided to grant Facebook's request to wait for the PTAB decisions, with regards to 7 patents. :-/

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/...3149.601.0.pdf

[_dimi_]

I don't understand this judge. He seems like a complete *********. So now we're back to following up on cases at the PTAB. And when this judge decides to issue a summary judgement on 2 patents, he claims they're invalid only to see the PTAB claim the exact opposite only days later. What's up with that?! So then BlackBerry needs to file an appeal etc.

[_dimi_]

So we could be looking at September before the PTAB has come to a conclusion for each of the patents. Just because Facebook kept re-trying, and eventually got most of them instituted (though very late in the game). This is nonsense! :-/

[_dimi_]

I guess he lost his balls after his last "verdict", and now he's finally doing what most neutral people prefer : have a panel of experts look at a patent instead of a judge who wants to read as little as possible. But he's punishing the same party (again) by this time not sticking to a timeline. We could have a verdict in the Facebook vs BlackBerry case before this one goes to trial.

[Superfly_FR]

Hi guys !
Well, couldn't miss the - sad - day. At least an opportunity for me to salute y'all and get some warm souvenirs of a crazy period.
Must say the mood is not at its best since the end of BB devices may sync with me giving up with my 20+ years self-owned company.
But, hey, the show must go on and I hope everyone here is fine; a bit late for me to wish you a happy new year (and shame on me for this one) , but there's no timing for wishing you the very best looking forward !
Keep rocking !
Supa says Mhoooo !

[Superfly_FR]

Many thanks Feitalnc!

What a real gentleman you are. But hey, I believe we all do our best here, on this thread. And everyone's contribution matters.

It's been a long and tortuous road. And we don't even yet know whether we'll get to our destination. But this trip will have been worth it thanks to guys like you and so many others. I won't mention any names since we all do our part.

I am sorry Morgan hasn't been around to enlighten us with his knowledge. But we are all thinking of him and wish him nothing but the best. I can think of a few others who were solid members of this thread for the longest time and are no longer around, for one reason or another. We shall carry on with them in our thoughts.

And a happy birthday to you, my friend. Do enjoy those Norwegian delicacies and maybe, one day, we'll all be able to meet you there to celebrate our infamous $100 party (!). Well, maybe we'll settle for less than that sp...

Skål!

Hey Corbu, thanks for all the great contributions you've been filling the thread with for such a long time now
I see some familiar bar pillar are still around; same goes for y'all; checking the fast stats and see that we sure miss the $100 party but getting close to the 10 Millions views one, eventually !

[Corbu]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...300998231.html
BlackBerry and Trimble Partner to Enable Advanced Asset Monitoring Capabilities in Transportation Management

Companies Announce Integration of BlackBerry Radar into Trimble's TMW.Suite and TruckMate Solutions

[Seadog83]

Brutal stock price math: If the share price drops by 50% then it takes a 100% increase to just to get back to even. Even Bernie Madoff’s 1% return per month over a decade is practically impossible.

While mathematically true, that's a bit of a chimera, particularly when you're bouncing around in the noise zone of a stock price. Secondly, all percentages aren't created equally. Cylance and CRWD are perfect examples. 100% growth @ $1m/year is a lot different than 100% growth @ $1b/yr. Equivocally, a $2 loss still requires a $2 gain, and if that $2 loss happened for no particular reason (as was the case with BB), then there's no reason to doubt a $2 gain will occur for no particular reason (as an example). It's the same reason BB can post 200% earnings surprises. When you're going in with 0.01 earnings, even 1000% increases are on the table. Why did BB drop 5x the market on the day of the corona virus outbreak? Who knows. But it's all noise. Whether you talk in percents or absolute dollars, it's two different interpretations of the same data.

Percentages are data that are highly subject to manipulation. Like when people talk about "average" percentage growth, vs CAGRs. On year BB doubles, the next year it halves. "Average" growth is 25%. CAGR is correctly 0%. Average growth would also be the same at 25% each year. Yet in that case CAGR would also be 25%.

BB is a highly variable stock, and much like the price of fidget spinners on ebay on any given day, the price can bounce around a lot. The same as how BB is if anything a better company than 2 years ago, yet trading at 40% of the value. That's why I held on, since BB as several times before (both pre and post crash) tripled in months. While 1% a month for a decade is difficult (AMZN and many others seemed to manage) that isn't the case here. 1% growth/mth for a decade (or 330% compounded) is entirely doable and not at all out of the ordinary when you are looking at cherry picked data, which is exactly what this is since we're at an abnormally low point. Taken collectively however, from $7.50 or so when Chen took over, to (lets say) $15 today, would only be a far more pedestrian level of growth that matches the SP500, with all the various ups and downs being noise.

TSLA is a perfect example and is extremely timely as that company itself just tripled in a few months. Obviously that growth can't continue unabated, but it's a fools errand to look at the last few months in isolation. You also have to include the 50% hair cuts, and years of stagnant growth. Yes it tripled over a few months and that hockey stick growth we all speak of was always "just around the corner". Consequentially yes, TSLA tripled in a few months, but it also tripled in a year, and tripled in 6 years, since it was more or less stagnant and range bound (~$200 to $350) since the last big push in mid '13. Lots of people "knew" this was coming, but like BB have been diligently waiting for 6 years.

[_dimi_]

It now seems that the court verdict is not final, yet....

''Finally, BlackBerry respectfully reiterates that any stay, whether partial or full,
at this stage of litigation would render this case an outlier when considered against
other precedent in this district and nationwide. In most cases, Courts find that the
decision whether to stay a case hinges on whether claim construction is complete. See
Dkt. 550 at 1-2 (collecting cases). But, here, Defendants did not even file their first
motion for a stay until after claim construction. And, since Defendants withdrew that
first motion, the parties have completed extensive fact and expert discovery, briefed
dispositive motions, and are now on the cusp of trial. Defendants have not provided
the Court with even a single case staying proceedings pending IPR this close to trial.
Finally, the Court’s tentative order finds BlackBerry’s arguments regarding
prejudice “unpersuasive.” But, courts have found prejudice where the timing of the
motion to stay was tactically motivated. See Athena Feminine Technologies Inc. v.
Wilkes, No. 10-4868, 2012 WL 1424988, at *3 (N.D. Cal. Apr. 24, 2012). Such is the
case here. Rather than promptly file IPR petitions, Defendants choose to litigate in
this forum—obtaining the Court’s views on claim construction, extracting
infringement contentions from BlackBerry, and filing now three rounds of dispositive
motions that cut across every single asserted patent. Having extensively availed itself
of this forum, Defendants cannot now be heard to complain about having to see this
case through its final stages to a complete resolution on the merits.
For these reasons, the Court should deny Defendants’ Motion to Stay in full.''