[bbjdog]

BlackBerry maintains a for-pay enterprise version, which it will now make available for personal use.

[Bla1ze]

And no word about BBM either? I thought BB only licensed BBM to EMTEK so why are they allowed to completely destroy BBM by shutting it down?

Why not try to sell it to WeChat or Line instead of just throwing away the whole user base?

Why would they mention it? They noted in the announcement it would have no effect on their bottom line and afaic, they're not destroying it. They're actually bringing it back to what it was normally intended to be with BBme. The consumer version of BBM was a messy wreck.

[dusdal]

[Sameoldsameold]

They are offering a paid version of something available for free in the market and even without any possibility to migrate data from BBM to BBMe? The emojis from BBMe also look much worse than the ones from BBM to me.

So from the remaining 80 million BBM users or so, I expect only several thousands will migrate, the rest will switch to other messengers.

In the end BB gave away millions of users for free, instead of trying to strike a deal with WeChat or Line. Therefore they destroyed another asset of BB.

[Sameoldsameold]

Sounds really interesting from a technical point of view. The big questions for me are:

1. Are there real use cases for this solution?
2. Will Amazon market Alexa for business with the BB solution?

Especially point 2 is important for a success since without the support of Amazon this new soltution will be DOA like BlackBerry Jarvis or Blackberry Bridge

[Corbu]

RBC Capital Markets

Paul Treiber

April 24, 2019

BlackBerry Limited

Cylance takes center stage

Our view: We attended BlackBerry’s analyst summit yesterday. We came away from the event incrementally more positive on BlackBerry’s acquisition of Cylance. However, we don’t have the conviction at this point to gauge whether Cylance’s FY20e revenue growth would exceed guidance, which is likely to be the primary driver of investor sentiment over the next year. Maintain Sector Perform, $10.00 price target.

Key points:

• Incrementally more positive on Cylance. Cylance’s management is passionate about the sustainability of its competitive advantages and the long-term scalability of its architecture. In our discussions with Cylance, management suggested that it has a multi-year lead in AI/ ML-based automated threat prevention compared to competitors. Additionally, the strategic and product fit between Cylance and BlackBerry appears high.

• BlackBerry is a Cylance accelerant. Cylance’s management sees BlackBerry as a growth accelerant and preferable to an IPO. BlackBerry provides the resources to more rapidly expand beyond PCs to mobile devices, embedded devices and vehicles. BlackBerry appears to have an aggressive roadmap for integrated BlackBerry/Cylance products and has, in the long-term, broader plans for Cylance’s AI/ML capabilities.

• Dell channel appears intact for now. BlackBerry reiterated its FY20e guidance for 25-30% Y/Y revenue growth at Cylance. The guidance comes despite the January 2019 announcement that Dell’s SecureWorks is moving away from Cylance to a competitor. Positively, Cylance still retains an OEM agreement for Dell PCs and its recent sales momentum at Dell remains strong. While there’s a risk that Cylance could lose its OEM agreement on Dell PCs, Cylance also has an opportunity to pursue other PC OEMs.

• BlackBerry’s FY20e guidance reaffirmed. BlackBerry also reaffirmed its FY20e guidance provided when it reported Q4/FY19 results in March. Notably, BlackBerry clarified that there is no revenue impact from Emtek shutting down the consumer BBM service because Emtek still intends to honour (and pay) its licensing agreement.

• Investor sentiment dependent on Cylance in the near-term. We don’t have the conviction at this point to gauge whether Cylance’s FY20e revenue growth would exceed guidance. Factors that create uncertainties regarding Cylance’s FY20e revenue growth, in our view, include the deceleration in Cylance’s revenue growth rate (34% in Jan-19 qtr vs. 93% in FY18), the sustainability of the Dell channel, unforeseen disruptions from the integration with BlackBerry, and the high-level of competition in end-point protection.

• Maintain Sector Perform, $10.00 price target. We believe BlackBerry is trading near fair value. In our view, we need to see significantly stronger growth in several of BlackBerry’s core businesses (ESS, BTS, Cylance) to justify material upside for the stock. Our $10.00 target equates to 3.8x CY20e EV/S on software revenue.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

No matter how strong and capable a leader you put in charge, the buggy whip probably isn't going to make a resurgence any time soon.

.

Reality is the old BlackBerry is gone, there will be no resurgence as they have no hope of doing the business volume they once did, nor of capturing the attention of speculative investors.... as there is no huge potential here, like there was with Smartphones ten years ago.

They are a small software company that will do what most small software companies do... doesn't mean they are a bad investment. Actually they are a much more stable company today.

Really you need to forget about the past...

[W Hoa]

BlackBerry clarified that there is no revenue impact from Emtek shutting down the consumer BBM service because Emtek still intends to honour (and pay) its licensing agreement.

That settles the concern as to whether BlackBerry would be fully compensated by Emtek.

[W Hoa]

Reality is the old BlackBerry is gone, there will be no resurgence as they have no hope of doing the business volume they once did, nor of capturing the attention of speculative investors.... as there is no huge potential here

Down but maybe not out. A few dollars per annum on a few billion endpoints in the IOT and automotive realms coupled with a nice slogan (BlackBerry Secure) could prove to turn the tide.

[EchoTango]

Reality is the old BlackBerry is gone, there will be no resurgence as they have no hope of doing the business volume they once did, nor of capturing the attention of speculative investors.... as there is no huge potential here, like there was with Smartphones ten years ago.

They are a small software company that will do what most small software companies do... doesn't mean they are a bad investment. Actually they are a much more stable company today.

Really you need to forget about the past...

Nicely said.

I just might add, Blackberry needs to set itself a more aggressive path but seems to be quite content to just plod along happy to grow at 8%-10% annually. However, I always wonder if Chen is setting this company up as a fat and stupid lamb for the inevitable big bad wolf with deep pockets to come along....

[Corbu]

Stuart McClure on BlackBerry/Cylance

[Bacon Munchers]

They are offering a paid version of something available for free in the market and even without any possibility to migrate data from BBM to BBMe? The emojis from BBMe also look much worse than the ones from BBM to me.

So from the remaining 80 million BBM users or so, I expect only several thousands will migrate, the rest will switch to other messengers.

In the end BB gave away millions of users for free, instead of trying to strike a deal with WeChat or Line. Therefore they destroyed another asset of BB.

If you take your argument all the way, you should find that it will collapse onto itself.
Perhaps BlackBerry thinks that it is more in line with their Secure fundamentals to try to migrate base users to BBMe and hope that a percent ends up staying (without ads and personal info sharing/selling), than to do the seemingly simple approach of just licensing to a WeChat or Line, and end up going against the grain of its own fabric.

I appreciate that BlackBerry is going this approach and will gladly pay the silly few bucks a year for the security, which is why I use a BlackBerry in the first place.

[Sameoldsameold]

If you take your argument all the way, you should find that it will collapse onto itself.
Perhaps BlackBerry thinks that it is more in line with their Secure fundamentals to try to migrate base users to BBMe and hope that a percent ends up staying (without ads and personal info sharing/selling), than to do the seemingly simple approach of just licensing to a WeChat or Line, and end up going against the grain of its own fabric.

I appreciate that BlackBerry is going this approach and will gladly pay the silly few bucks a year for the security, which is why I use a BlackBerry in the first place.

They even did not bother to send the message about BBMe via BBM to all users instead they just issued a press release and some treats. For me that is asset destruction on purpose

[Corbu]

So, this is what GS had to say...

BB – GS: Analyst Day Takeaways

We attended BlackBerry’s Analyst Day in San Ramon, CA, including presentations from senior executives, customers and partners. BlackBerry focused on its opportunities for growth with its Enterprise of Things platform, which leverages its core IP in communications, security, and ML/AI (post the Cylance acquisition).

Our key takeaways follow.

1. Growth: BlackBerry reiterated guidance for 12-16% yoy FY20 growth in its IoT business (previously ESS and BTS), after posting its first quarter of yoy company growth in 4QFY19 since the wind-down of the handset business. BlackBerry articulated a longer term vision of leveraging its core communications, ML/AI and security IP to grow from over $1 bn in revenue (FY20E) to $2 bn in revenue. To this end, the company believes that the markets where it competes most successfully are growing at close to 20%. The company’s Enterprise of Things platform, Spark, will launch later this year and be an increasingly important piece of BlackBerry’s platform.

2. Cylance: BlackBerry highlighted three upcoming product launches over the Spring and Fall: Cocoon, its rearchitected single-agent solution; Guard, managed hunting, investigation and response; and Persona, which provides context to alerts based on user identity. With these releases, Cylance believes it will be able to compete with best-of-breed endpoint vendors while continuing to deliver strong win rates in the industrial and manufacturing verticals. The company expects to integrate Cylance technology into UEM and QNX platforms over the next year.

3. Investments: BlackBerry will continue to be thoughtful with reallocating expenses away from slower-growing areas of the portfolio and toward growth engines. BlackBerry’s new COO (appointed in January) noted specific efforts such as expanding professional services into security consulting (a playbook that was successfully implemented at Cisco), expanding and upgrading the direct sales force, and building out the partner ecosystem. BlackBerry’s CFO reiterated its financial goal of over 20% EBIT margin, which it believes it can achieve within 5 years.

4. QNX: BlackBerry continues to see the potential to expand its content per car by multiples of its current $3-5 (up from $1-3 in Infotainment alone) and expand its unit share. We believe the company continues to build out an impressive ecosystem of automotive partners and wins. BlackBerry maintained that wins can take 3-5 years to ramp in terms of revenue contribution. In the interim, the company will simultaneously be focused on winning embedded software sockets in end markets such as healthcare. We maintain a Sell rating on the stock, primarily due to our concerns around pricing and competition in the enterprise software business. Our 12-month price target is $8.00 for BB and C$11.00 for BB.TO. Our BB price target is based on 1) 85% fundamental value of $7.50 based on 3.0x Q5-8 sales, and 2) 15% M&A value of $11, based on 4.5x Q5-8 sales. Key risks include: timing of new design wins in QNX and radar, and cross-sell with Cylance .

[Seadog83]

Reality is the old BlackBerry is gone, there will be no resurgence as they have no hope of doing the business volume they once did, nor of capturing the attention of speculative investors.... as there is no huge potential here, like there was with Smartphones ten years ago.

They are a small software company that will do what most small software companies do... doesn't mean they are a bad investment. Actually they are a much more stable company today.

Really you need to forget about the past...

I'm somewhat confused about that comment and how I was referring to the past. I was referring to products no one seems to want, which could be because they're from the past and obsolete (buggy whip) or any number of other reasons which BB is quickly becoming an expert in. Apparently if Thurber (pres of mobility solutions which is IoT things like Radar I presume?) and Wiese (pres of sales) are out, both of whom had spectacular resumes, it begs the question is the problem with them, or is the problem with BB? Unless you mean that Radar and competently selling things are well in the past, which sadly based on the stock price, and projected single digit growth for fiscal 2021 (based on Kadakn's apparently credible info), it may not be too far a stretch.

Don't get me wrong, I'm long the stock, and in for the price of a house at an average of ~$10. I *am* enthusiastically looking to the future, just as I was when I bought my first small position in late 2011 based on the promise of BB10, and the promise of item after item which goes no where. Since then though it's been lots of nice sounding platitudes and products, which I feel do solve important problems, which is why I remained invested, but for one reason or another nothing seems to take.

[bbjdog]

They are offering a paid version of something available for free in the market and even without any possibility to migrate data from BBM to BBMe? The emojis from BBMe also look much worse than the ones from BBM to me.

So from the remaining 80 million BBM users or so, I expect only several thousands will migrate, the rest will switch to other messengers.

In the end BB gave away millions of users for free, instead of trying to strike a deal with WeChat or Line. Therefore they destroyed another asset of BB.

I will be one of those users **** head!!!

[bbjdog]

They even did not bother to send the message about BBMe via BBM to all users instead they just issued a press release and some treats. For me that is asset destruction on purpose

I received all the info i needed from Blackberry to understand the full picture!!! what did you receive??? don't answer that mate, because its a waste of my time!!!

[bbjdog]

So, this is what GS had to say...

BB – GS: Analyst Day Takeaways

We attended BlackBerry’s Analyst Day in San Ramon, CA, including presentations from senior executives, customers and partners. BlackBerry focused on its opportunities for growth with its Enterprise of Things platform, which leverages its core IP in communications, security, and ML/AI (post the Cylance acquisition).

Our key takeaways follow.

1. Growth: BlackBerry reiterated guidance for 12-16% yoy FY20 growth in its IoT business (previously ESS and BTS), after posting its first quarter of yoy company growth in 4QFY19 since the wind-down of the handset business. BlackBerry articulated a longer term vision of leveraging its core communications, ML/AI and security IP to grow from over $1 bn in revenue (FY20E) to $2 bn in revenue. To this end, the company believes that the markets where it competes most successfully are growing at close to 20%. The company’s Enterprise of Things platform, Spark, will launch later this year and be an increasingly important piece of BlackBerry’s platform.

2. Cylance: BlackBerry highlighted three upcoming product launches over the Spring and Fall: Cocoon, its rearchitected single-agent solution; Guard, managed hunting, investigation and response; and Persona, which provides context to alerts based on user identity. With these releases, Cylance believes it will be able to compete with best-of-breed endpoint vendors while continuing to deliver strong win rates in the industrial and manufacturing verticals. The company expects to integrate Cylance technology into UEM and QNX platforms over the next year.

3. Investments: BlackBerry will continue to be thoughtful with reallocating expenses away from slower-growing areas of the portfolio and toward growth engines. BlackBerry’s new COO (appointed in January) noted specific efforts such as expanding professional services into security consulting (a playbook that was successfully implemented at Cisco), expanding and upgrading the direct sales force, and building out the partner ecosystem. BlackBerry’s CFO reiterated its financial goal of over 20% EBIT margin, which it believes it can achieve within 5 years.

4. QNX: BlackBerry continues to see the potential to expand its content per car by multiples of its current $3-5 (up from $1-3 in Infotainment alone) and expand its unit share. We believe the company continues to build out an impressive ecosystem of automotive partners and wins. BlackBerry maintained that wins can take 3-5 years to ramp in terms of revenue contribution. In the interim, the company will simultaneously be focused on winning embedded software sockets in end markets such as healthcare. We maintain a Sell rating on the stock, primarily due to our concerns around pricing and competition in the enterprise software business. Our 12-month price target is $8.00 for BB and C$11.00 for BB.TO. Our BB price target is based on 1) 85% fundamental value of $7.50 based on 3.0x Q5-8 sales, and 2) 15% M&A value of $11, based on 4.5x Q5-8 sales. Key risks include: timing of new design wins in QNX and radar, and cross-sell with Cylance .

Corbu mate !!!!! you know i love your girlfriends, but please mate don't post anything from GS!!!!

[bbjdog]

I'm somewhat confused about that comment and how I was referring to the past. I was referring to products no one seems to want, which could be because they're from the past and obsolete (buggy whip) or any number of other reasons which BB is quickly becoming an expert in. Apparently if Thurber (pres of mobility solutions which is IoT things like Radar I presume?) and Wiese (pres of sales) are out, both of whom had spectacular resumes, it begs the question is the problem with them, or is the problem with BB? Unless you mean that Radar and competently selling things are well in the past, which sadly based on the stock price, and projected single digit growth for fiscal 2021 (based on Kadakn's apparently credible info), it may not be too far a stretch.

Don't get me wrong, I'm long the stock, and in for the price of a house at an average of ~$10. I *am* enthusiastically looking to the future, just as I was when I bought my first small position in late 2011 based on the promise of BB10, and the promise of item after item which goes no where. Since then though it's been lots of nice sounding platitudes and products, which I feel do solve important problems, which is why I remained invested, but for one reason or another nothing seems to take.

I have the worlds smallest violin that you can play time after time!!!!

Corbu mate, after Toronto Maple Leafs lost yesterday I would expect a picture of your girlfriend!!!

[Corbu]

Good recap of Analyst Day, by Rob Enderle:
Evolution of BlackBerry: The Best Security Solutions You Have Never Heard Of

The title and this says it all, I believe...

"BlackBerry continues to impress regarding product and execution, but it is held back by an image tied to what it used to be. This is largely a branding/marketing problem because people believe they already know what BlackBerry is, so they are less likely to explore what it is now. It isn’t that the brand is negative. It does open doors. It is that the brand creates a drag on sales. This isn’t too dissimilar to the problem Honda had when it first sold cars and why its initial effort to sell those cars at motorcycle dealers failed. For the company to reach its full potential, it must get people to see it as the leading supplier of security software for the target segments. I’m convinced it is that but won’t reach its sales potential until it is at a critical mass of potential buyers that see it for what it is now."

How long has this "branding/marketing problem" been going on, btw? BB's been plagued by it for the longest while. Marketing and execution... Same old story.

I am afraid we won't be out of the woods for a while yet... Until then, with no pushback on the horizon, the SP will take it on the chin. Most frustrating.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I'm somewhat confused about that comment and how I was referring to the past. I was referring to products no one seems to want, which could be because they're from the past and obsolete (buggy whip) or any number of other reasons which BB is quickly becoming an expert in. Apparently if Thurber (pres of mobility solutions which is IoT things like Radar I presume?) and Wiese (pres of sales) are out, both of whom had spectacular resumes, it begs the question is the problem with them, or is the problem with BB? Unless you mean that Radar and competently selling things are well in the past, which sadly based on the stock price, and projected single digit growth for fiscal 2021 (based on Kadakn's apparently credible info), it may not be too far a stretch.

Don't get me wrong, I'm long the stock, and in for the price of a house at an average of ~$10. I *am* enthusiastically looking to the future, just as I was when I bought my first small position in late 2011 based on the promise of BB10, and the promise of item after item which goes no where. Since then though it's been lots of nice sounding platitudes and products, which I feel do solve important problems, which is why I remained invested, but for one reason or another nothing seems to take.

What did your use of the word resurgences mean too you? (I probably took it too literal)

I see a solid company that has potential at this point.... back in 2011 I didn't, and for most of the smartphone/bes days I didn't - at this point I don't see BBMo lasting long either, and that will wrap up what BlackBerry once was.

But I still don't see the $25 - $30 that some here talk about. Several years down the road, if things go just right and their competition stumbles... who knows. But then I didn't see Tiger winning the Masters either, so what do I know.

[Corbu]

So, apparently, this is what TD is saying:

Cylance’s AI capabilities will be integrated throughout BlackBerry's portfolio. While Cylance is expected to continue growing in the 25%-30% range in F2020, we believe that growth could accelerate once Cylance is integrated into UEM and QNX over the next year. We believe that adding Cylance’s capabilities will further differentiate BlackBerry’s solutions and enable the company to cross-sell them. We believe that it could help BlackBerry increase market and wallet share. Management introduced longer-term targets of 90% recurring revenue, 80%-85% gross margin, 20%-25% operating margin, and 25%-30% EBITDA margin. We believe that this is possible from both operating leverage, as well as disciplined cost management. Achieving these targets would put BlackBerry more in line with enterprise and cybersecurity peers. QNX wallet share expansion is well under way. Our thesis of BlackBerry gaining wallet share in the automotive segment is playing out. Royalties paid per car were around $1-$3 a few years ago, when QNX was only in the infotainment system (IVI). They are now $3-$5, suggesting that models using QNX for multiple systems are paying well above the $3-$5 range. This is consistent with our view that the hypervisor alone can triple royalties since the attach rate of digital cluster to hypervisor wins are very high. With ADAS and further hardware consolidation, which we saw progressing very quickly with tier-1 supplier products, we believe QNX's royalties can continue expanding. Management also noted that they are adding 30 new people to the QNX team to go after new markets. Moving from products to platforms. BlackBerry views their Spark platform as the communications platform for IoT. It will leverage BlackBerry's extensive portfolio of solutions and integrate them. The vision is to have customers and independent software developers create solutions on top of the Spark platform. BlackBerry also demonstrated new innovations such as applying behavioral and location intelligence to device management; integrating voice services, such as Alexa; and learning how a user types or moves the mouse to identify users. We believe these innovations and platform developments will expand BlackBerry's market opportunity and increase stickiness.

Props to SH.

[Corbu]

And now, BoA/ML:

Daniel Bartus

BlackBerry

Key takeaways from Analyst Day: Cylance excitement, but Spark disappointment

Maintain Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 8.50 USD | Price: 8.91 USD Equity | 25 April 2019

Sticking with the long-term ‘Spark’ EoT strategy

We recently attended BlackBerry’s analyst day in San Ramon, CA, where management recapped the company’s transition and reiterated its Enterprise of Things (EoT) strategy. The day included customer testimonials and general excitement about Cylance, but limited financial updates. Much like the 2018 event, management also highlighted its strong legacy technologies and patent position. However, our two main takeaways are (1) spending must increase to compete effectively as a subscale cyber security vendor; and (2) bringing the technologies together into a compelling platform remains a longerterm and challenging goal. We also remain cautious on the growth trajectory for the Licensing segment (see detailed discussion on page 4); maintain Underperform and $8.50 PO.

Cylance helps reinvent company in cyber security market

The top theme of the day was the Cylance acquisition and plans to leverage Cylance’s artificial intelligence (AI) across the EoT platform efforts. While BlackBerry sees its unified endpoint management (UEM) and Cylance’s endpoint security coming together over time, management is taking a cautious approach not to disrupt Cylance’s higher ~28% growth expected in FY20. Management has identified select customers to test cross-selling in FY20 and sees opportunities to leverage Cylance’s channel over time. We walked away with a positive view of Cylance’s technology and endpoint expertise, but flag higher expenses, cash burn, and execution risks, which may linger through FY21.

Doubling down on Athoc/SecuSuite; Spark underwhelms

Management outlined two new efforts: (1) reinvigorate older products for growth; and (2) bring its disparate point products into a more unified EoT platform. First, BlackBerry is refocusing efforts on growing the Athoc mass notification software and SecuSuite encrypted voice offering. Both products address growth markets, yet BlackBerry historically has focused on government sales rather than enterprise opportunities. We view the Athoc product positively given the high growth of close peer Everbridge and expect large SecuSuite deals in FY20 (recognized in period) to potentially drive some quarterly strength. Separately, we were disappointed with the Spark EoT platform developments, given the lack of clarity, no tangible use cases, and unrealistic demos.

... Will post a longer version a bit later.

[Corbu]

OT:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pri...book-1.5110304

Facebook breached Canada's privacy laws, watchdogs' report finds

Federal privacy commissioner plans to take social media network to court

[Corbu]

rarsen, W Hoa and morganplus8 like this.