[La Emperor]

I'm a little surprised on how SAF refuse to die. There was a little drop in revenue this Q.

With that in mind, I'm beginning to wonder if the edge devices Fetalinc mentioned above, along with other devices like radar, controllers in cars etc are getting routed thru their secure network operations center and is starting to feed the SAF. Could there be a correlation?

Just speculating of course.

On Muhlan's suggestion of BB going private....hmmm That idea has been floated around here before.

Your claim, Chen is defrauding shareholders ( your words ) and are unhappy about it. If what you are claiming is true would it not be even more troublesome for shareholders if they go private as Chen would be hidden from public scrutiny. Less transparency. No more reporting every Q. No scrutiny from analysts. Your ideas seems to collide.

Also Chen would likely be able to keep his pay package so it would still be a constant source of ranting and unhappiness for you.

Thanks everyone for the good discussion.

[Seadog83]

Since John Chen destroyed the remaining confidence of investors in BlackBerry on Friday the constant drops in BlackBerry share price will negatively impact employee morale and customers buying decisions.

They should take BlackBerry private and bring the business back on a growth path without being in the press every quarter. When the autonomous car market is going into full swing they could IPO it and I am sure that I the valuation would be north of 30 billion $. Worked well for Dell and will work for BB.

With worldwide interest rates still low and plenty of cash sitting on the sidelines looking for investments, a deal at 18 - 20$ could easily be funded and will be accepted by shareholders since now most are fed up with how John Chen is handling this

I find it ironic that you and Morgan have a similar broad thesis on the company, which is namely it may and likely will produce true value in the long run, and is solving a real problem, but is so irrationally volatile that money can be made on the way down. The difference is that his position seems to be from one of logic and cold analysis calling the top almost exactly right around $14, and yours one of frustration, beginning your short at the exact wrong time when you should have been buying.

I thought earnings were a solid neutral, and was honestly surprised to see it up 5% pre market and figured it would close near where it started.

I'm also amazed at the volume. People carrying on about "Selling off on volume!!!". 17m on an earnings day is nothing. The average daily used to be around that, and even within the last year we'd see 40-50mm on earnings days, and similar on big news days (Baidu). In the last ten years, a third of the 22 lightest days have been in the last month or so.

I'm really not sure happened with the price. Good growth where it counts, and a decrease where it doesn't since it's easily explained away by the change in accounting. Possibly it was just a lot of people like our good friend Muhlan who were expecting a drop, and as soon as the first inkling of such occurred, everyone jumped on board.

Still holding, but this stock require the patience of Job at times. Huge deals being signed-but we can't tell you who. And this will lead to huge revenue in the future-but we can't tell you when or how much.

[La Emperor]

A nugget from financials dug out by Yasch22 of Stockhouse. Many thanks.

"I just found out a few details about that long-term IP deal BB signed two years ago, the one with the multinational that was supposed to start in 2018 and last for 10 years. It pays $25m per quarter. It's on page 13 of "Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements" in this link: https://www.blackberry.com/content/d...nformation.pdf
In other words, and as I read it, BB has been a slam dunk from the get-go to meet its target of $100m in IP licensing per year. "

BLACKBERRY LIMITED ( T.BB ) stock message board and forum - Bullboard Discussion - Stockhouse Community

[Corbu]

Nice find, La Emperor. Yasch is one of the best at digging up information from BB's financials. Between him and our Morgan, we are in business...

Here is that quote from page 13:

"The Company has a long-term intellectual property licensing receivable comprising a series of future amounts owing from a single licensee. As the amounts of the receivable are long-term in nature, the Company initially measured the payments at present value using an effective interest rate of 4.5%, and will record interest income over time to arrive at the total face value of the remaining payments of $27 million."

Not quite sure how to interpret that last bit dealing with the "remaining payments"...

[digitalsurfboard]

For the love of God (money), sell before the ER and buy on the dip. The stock isn't frustrating. It's freaking perfect.

[W Hoa]

For the love of God (money), sell before the ER and buy on the dip. The stock isn't frustrating. It's freaking perfect.

Not so, unless you consider 2 out of 4 perfect.

"Blackberry Q3 2018 earnings beat, shares spike 7%"

"Shares of BlackBerry Limited BBRY have rallied more than 21% since the release of strong second-quarter fiscal 2018 results last week."

[Seadog83]

Nice find, La Emperor. Yasch is one of the best at digging up information from BB's financials. Between him and our Morgan, we are in business...

Here is that quote from page 13:

"The Company has a long-term intellectual property licensing receivable comprising a series of future amounts owing from a single licensee. As the amounts of the receivable are long-term in nature, the Company initially measured the payments at present value using an effective interest rate of 4.5%, and will record interest income over time to arrive at the total face value of the remaining payments of $27 million."

Not quite sure how to interpret that last bit dealing with the "remaining payments"...

I'm not sure where he gets 25m/Q from. That seems to be another of many wildly optimistic takes where some numbers and some words get combined in the best possible way. The latest other being that people think JC only has until Nov of 2018 to get the share price to $16, Nov 2019 to $17 etc... , since the wording in his contract says "his award will vest on the first anniversary of Nov 2018" which somehow translates a time limit.

I' surprised since Yasch is generally on the ball. I take this as they received an upfront payment of $27m for a long term license. They converted $27m present value to periodic payments based on 4.5% interest, or roughly $1m/year, and that is the rev they recognize each year, while lowering deferred $ by $1m. They will continue on in that fashion, so ie now in fiscal 2019, there has been ~2 years of $1m recognized, and $25m deferred, to be recognized in future years.

[Bacon Munchers]

Good bunch of posts today fellas. Thanks for this. Good reading on a Saturday morning.

To some of your points, I was reading an article and am finding it hard to hold my head in shame! What was so drab about this ER??

-------
https://www.therecord.com/news-story...xed-q1-report/

BlackBerry, which reports in U.S. currency, reported adjusted earnings of three cents per share, beating analysts' expectations of neutral earnings, while revenue was US$213 million, surpassing expectations of US$208.02 million for the quarter ended May 31, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.

Revenue from software and services was $189 million, up 18 per cent year-over-year, although growth was unevenly distributed between BlackBerry's three main business units.

BlackBerry's enterprise software and services business had $79 million of revenue, down 14 per cent from last year, while revenue from licensing intellectual property was up 96 per cent to $63 million. BlackBerry Technology Solutions, which primarily consists of the QNX business, was up 31 per cent at $47 million.
-------

Am I missing something here!?

Anyway, I can't wait till Monday to hopefully meet my set price to do this again...
Not unhappy with this ER at all. Like many here, I see the big picture.

[curves2000]

One of the things that caught my ear when I was listening to the earnings call was Chen's point on the TCL contribution to the revenue stream.

He was asked about the licensing and royalty revenue and how much of it was the TCL partnership. He stated, and I paraphrase " not very much contribution from TCL, it's kind of just gotten started but I should pick up in the coming quarters"

Given the higher aspirations of the Key 2, say we get 1.5 million units sold globally under TCL, never mind the other partnerships, we could be taking about another $20+ million in high margin revenue. I believe the rumored royalty fee is about $15 a phone.

Hopefully BlackBerry Mobile and the other hardware partners can make some meaningful contribution this fiscal year on that front. One of the reasons for leaving the hardware business was to free up capital to spend in other high growth areas but that doesn't appear to have materialized in meaningful form.......yet. There is demand for BlackBerry devices globally with the partnerships and the high margin revenue associated with it does make the deals look better now, it's just time for everybody to execute well.

Posted via CB10

[anon(9100201)]

It is really astonishing that people are still defending a CEO and a CFO who are not able to update guidance to a new revenue recognition standard issued in May 2014.

In addition John Chen againg showed that he has not what it takes to CEO of a public company. Instead of generating interest in BlackBerry by talking about

- growth prospects of QNX
- prospects of BBM consumer regarding becoming the WeChat of Southeast Asia
- number of Radar devices installed

he rather dimmed any excitement about QNX growth by reiteraing that the growth will be much lower in the coming quarters and only gave some muddy information about Radar and kept mum about BBM.

Maybe we will get some positive news from the NOK hearing today, would love to sell my shares bought on Friday at 12$ and reenter a short position. Like it or not, with John Chen as CEO the share price will stay depressed and could even drop back to 8$, not because BlackBerry is a bad company, but because it has the wrong leadership and the wrong people sitting on the BOD

[curves2000]

It is really astonishing that people are still defending a CEO and a CFO who are not able to update guidance to a new revenue recognition standard issued in May 2014.

In addition John Chen againg showed that he has not what it takes to CEO of a public company. Instead of generating interest in BlackBerry by talking about

- growth prospects of QNX
- prospects of BBM consumer regarding becoming the WeChat of Southeast Asia
- number of Radar devices installed

he rather dimmed any excitement about QNX growth by reiteraing that the growth will be much lower in the coming quarters and only gave some muddy information about Radar and kept mum about BBM.

Maybe we will get some positive news from the NOK hearing today, would love to sell my shares bought on Friday at 12$ and reenter a short position. Like it or not, with John Chen as CEO the share price will stay depressed and could even drop back to 8$, not because BlackBerry is a bad company, but because it has the wrong leadership and the wrong people sitting on the BOD

I think I speak for a lot of long term shareholders when I say that we are all looking forward to sustained share price growth and for many of us, it's taken longer than we would have wanted.

When John Chen took over this company back in 2013, he did so under an interim CEO role to try and stabilize the company at the request of Premier Watsa, a well known value investor and significant BlackBerry shareholder though his firm, Fairfax Financial.

John Chen eventually saw that there was some quality assets and patents with the company and that the turnaround was worth while, he ended up signing a 5 year agreement to come out of "retirement" and run BlackBerry, partially from his home base in the San Francisco Bay area and Canada as well, using BlackBerry's corporate jet.

The company was in such dire financial straights that senior Canadian government officials were working behind the scenes to accelerate tax refunds to provide some much needed capital as the company was bleeding cash.

John Chen is an experienced tech CEO who sits on the board of Disney, sat on the board of Wells Fargo and was in an advisory role to President George W Bush on China relations. If you look at the board of directors on Disney and Wells Fargo, you will see some serious business executives of these firms so I believe his experience and acumen is excellent. I am also starting to think that the turnaround is taking longer than he might have anticipated from a growth perspective.

His initial contract is due and he resigned for 5 more years. I had mentioned this in previous posts but BlackBerry still has an image problem, it's almost like the name is thought of as "dead" or "toxic". When the company was called Research in Motion, their product was the BlackBerry. For whatever reason the name was changed to that of a failing product in some ways, think Ford being renamed the Pinto.

In any event for the long term appreciation of the stock, BlackBerry needs to grow their revenues fairly substantially now that their balance sheet and financial situation has improved, these $210 million dollar quarters aren't going to cut it, not from a company that was $20 billion a year in revenue at one point. Chen's pay package is set for $30 and I think he will get there or close to it soon, it's just taken longer than anybody wants and LOTS of investors have been burnt in the process.

Owning BlackBerry stock is like being in a relationship with someone in their early 20's. A lover who loves black cats who go under ladders and are on their 8th life. Nothing but heartbreak and collateral damage along the way but your always hoping for the situation to improve!

Apologizes to everyone about the long post!

Posted via CB10

[anon(9100201)]

So now almost every analyst lowered his PT for the shares by at least 1 $. Great job from Mr. Chen and his CFO handling the communication with investors. The ER showed that both Mr. Chen and Mr. Castilli have no clue about leading a public company since that requires that you also take care of the share price.

[bapebape]

anyone have any news on SPHS ? seems like its crashing on premarket .

[bapebape]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...300671338.html

[kellyweng88]

maaan.....BB stock getting killed right now

[Corbu]

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC

James E Faucette

June 25, 2018 01:38 PM GMT

BlackBerry Ltd

Software Hits the Brakes

ASC606 and a revenue model change drove a double digit Enterprise software decline. Management remains confident in growth, but the slower pace suggests investors' FY20 expectations remain too optimistic. Still giving credit for optionality, but limited acceleration NT would turn us negative.

Licensing mix shift raises questions on FY20 growth. Q1 outperformance was driven by strong licensing activity to begin the fiscal year, but offsetted a significant YoY decline in Enterprise Software and Services (ESS) vs. our original expectations (-18% YoY v. MSe: 4%). The shortfall was partially attributable to ASC606 accounting, but ESS billings is expected to be flat YoY as a result of shifting perpetual license sales to a subscription revenue model. Model transition raises further questions on consensus growth expectations for FY20: much of licensing revenue remains one-time and transactional in nature, and BlackBerry is still focused on aligning go-to-market efforts with future growth opportunities. We think FY20 expectations remain too optimistic, barring signs of faster acceleration in QNX/Radar revenues in the coming quarters.

QNX (autos opportunity) remains on track. Q1 rev. / EPS of $217mm / $0.03 was above our original estimate of $195mm / $0.02; upside from IP licensing more than offset Enterprise Software and Services while BlackBerry Technology Solutions (BTS) was slightly ahead of our original estimates. Management highlighted additional design wins and partnerships with QNX, but associated revenue growth remains gradual and long-term in nature. Near-term, QNX continues to see growth with infotainment, and is now in over 120mm vehicles globally.

Lowering FY20 revenues. Our Q2 and FY19 rev. / EPS estimates are now $218mm / $0.03 and $891mm / $0.11 from $220mm / $0.03 and $891mm / $0.09 respectively. Overall revenues are largely unchanged except adjusting for a higher licensing mix, and EPS benefits from continued opex discipline. With a lowered software outlook and less visibility on licensing activity, we are adjusting our FY20 rev. / EPS estimates to $897mm / $0.13 from $945mm / $0.12.

Remain EW. Our $10 PT is 4.5x our FY20 revenue estimate, in-line with coverage universe on a growth adjusted basis. We continue to embed a high level of optionality as we think the company can continue to cut opex and will likely weigh various potential acquisition targets. We think investors continue to hold out for the ramp in new autos designs, but its gradual trajectory and modest growth in other software products lead us to believe multiple re-rating will be difficult. We could turn further cautious on the stock as the year progresses, and estimates remain optimistic despite limited software acceleration.

[farmwersteve]

Anyone else nervous about SPHS we cast today?

[sixaxis_ms]

yeah man...those 19minutes are killing me 😂

[W Hoa]

BB hit an RSI of 23, the lowest level for the past year. I think the damage is done. IMHO

[Bacon Munchers]

BB hit an RSI of 23, the lowest level for the past year. I think the damage is done. IMHO

Yep. I am back in with both feet.
Like you said, although it may get battered a bit more, it will rise again... the company is making the right plays. You would have to be blind and/or dumb not to notice it, so to me it's like free money investing in this company. I am following M8's strategy to some degree, where I have a long term block, and a swing trade block.


Cheers guys.

[W Hoa]

I have a long term block, and a swing trade block.

That's my play as well, although the numbers of each are always in flux. As well that RSI=23 on the daily chart is the lowest point it has reached in 3 years.

[W Hoa]

Blackberry buyback program ends today.

[DREXcb]

https://marketrealist.com/2018/06/wi...fiscal-q1-2019
Good reading here. I especially liked,


Analysts’ recommendations and price targets

Of the five analysts tracking BlackBerry stock, two have recommended a “buy,” and two have recommended a “hold.” There was one “sell” recommendation. Analysts’ 12-month average price target for BlackBerry is $12.53, and the median estimate is $12. BlackBerry is trading at a discount of 12.5%

And,

BlackBerry’s EBITDA expected to rise in fiscal 2020

BlackBerry reported revenue of $967 million in fiscal 2018 with EBITDA of $160 million and operating profit of $78 million. Analysts expect the company to post revenue of $894 million in fiscal 2019 with EBITDA of $117 million and operating profit of $29.5 million.

BlackBerry is then expected to return to revenue growth in fiscal 2020 with sales of $972 million, EBITDA of $169 million, and operating profit of $92.2 million. Analysts expect it to post revenue of $1.1 billion in fiscal 2021 with EBITDA of $293 million and operating profit of $112 million.

BlackBerry’s EPS is estimated to fall to $0.06 in fiscal 2019 compared to $0.04 in fiscal 2018. EPS is then estimated to rise to $0.17 in fiscal 2020.

Posted via CB10

[anon(9100201)]

John Chen killed this stock. The only upside kick could now only come from a huge NOK settlement since John Chen does not understand the market reaction (like always) and therefore will just sit around, watch the share price drop and in the meantime continue paying Prem Watsa nearly 20 million $ in interest per year for cash he has no idea of how to use it.

[spiller]

Time to buy BB. Back to 12 over the next three months.