[rarsen]

Interesting identifications and predictions, also noting that even iCloud was hacked, and IoT security is main concern in year 2018, good for BB business

Cybersecurity in 2018: A roundup of predictions - Tech Pro Research

[rarsen]

For those interested in generally following the Kahn Brothers Portfolio including BB:

Tracking Kahn Brothers Portfolio - Q4 2017 Update
https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...q4-2017-update
"BlackBerry Ltd.: BB was a very small ~0.5% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $8 and $10.84. Q2 2014 saw a 270% stake increase at prices between $7.15 and $10.12. The five quarters through Q1 2016 saw the position more than doubled at prices between $6 and $11. There was another ~40% increase in Q2 2016 at prices between $6.29 and $8.09. It is currently a top-five position at ~8% of the portfolio, and the stock is at $13.05. The last two quarters had seen marginal trimming, while this quarter saw a minor increase."

[masterful]

For those interested in generally following the Kahn Brothers Portfolio including BB:

Tracking Kahn Brothers Portfolio - Q4 2017 Update
https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...q4-2017-update
"BlackBerry Ltd.: BB was a very small ~0.5% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $8 and $10.84. Q2 2014 saw a 270% stake increase at prices between $7.15 and $10.12. The five quarters through Q1 2016 saw the position more than doubled at prices between $6 and $11. There was another ~40% increase in Q2 2016 at prices between $6.29 and $8.09. It is currently a top-five position at ~8% of the portfolio, and the stock is at $13.05. The last two quarters had seen marginal trimming, while this quarter saw a minor increase."

That's amazing.

[bspence87]

It has been quite a yo-yo for BBs SP over the last few weeks. It seems as though investors are having a tough time finding a valuation for BlackBerry. I know Morgan has mentioned $13.25 as support, but we've broke through it many times now without falling to the next support in the low $12s.

I'm not that strong at TA, so if one of our experts could shine a light on what's happening, that would be great!

[morganplus8]

It has been quite a yo-yo for BBs SP over the last few weeks. It seems as though investors are having a tough time finding a valuation for BlackBerry. I know Morgan has mentioned $13.25 as support, but we've broke through it many times now without falling to the next support in the low $12s.

I'm not that strong at TA, so if one of our experts could shine a light on what's happening, that would be great!

Hi bspence87!

I'll give you something to look at here:



Here is a picture of the performance of the Nasdaq, just like the DOW, it has had a great month, that month is coming to an end and we can see that yesterday was not a good day for all of the indexes. It was so bad that the DOW needs to open up 60 pts. and rally all day today to maintain its current pattern, (as does the NAS needing 35 pt. jump at the open this morning and to rally hard all day). As you can see by the futures, this isn't going to happen at the open. We are going to see some damage to that uptrend this morning and it is up to the market to try and limit the damage. A correction is a good thing, its the end of the month, we need to backup and shake out the weak hands here so this is good for us longer term.

BlackBerry:



BB's run was so strong that it managed to hit it's January high in a couple of days. From that point on, it under performed the market. By that I mean it took a huge rally in the general market in order for BB to go up, but the stock never performed as well on those rallies while at the same time, it would drop harder than the same general market condition. The problem with BB began with its valuation, the two means of valuing a company are a multiple to sales and EPS, on that basis, BB was over-priced. On the chart, we see a gap that was made at the beginning of January 2018 and the TA world is aware of it too. The expectation is that the price of the stock will drop to fill that gap. It can do this by stepping down, by this I mean that it can trade $ .30/shr lower, base out, then drop another $ .30/shr and so on. This is kind if what we are seeing since its peak in price. Usually, we see the stock give back its gains rapidly, so this is a departure from the norm of 2017.

The problem in front of us is tax reform. Cutting taxes boosted the market, the thought of a cash injection into the economy was met with a monster rally in stocks. The problem now is that interest rates are rocketing higher too to finance the $ 1.5 T in debt. While it takes years to see capital work its way into the economy, the higher interest rates take effect immediately for all the present debt the US issues. On top of that, mortgages go so high that many are now shut out of the housing market. And so, we are at the end of a great month, rates are very high now, its a good time for the market to correct itself and develop a slower path higher in the months ahead.

BlackBerry will begrudgingly move lower towards that gap, fill it and base out for another run at the 52 week high. This all takes time and a couple of Q's to complete. Let's see how things open up here and whether the market can limit its losses and cool itself a bit.

[morganplus8]

If anyone is interested, here is my 3-minute chart on BlackBerry:



Just so you know, I love the prospects for BlackBerry, I'm trading it on the short side to make money and prove to my wife that I'm flexible and not tied to any investment, even though, secretly, I'm always tied to BB. She doesn't need to know that. At $ 12.73/shr, we aren't that far off the fulfillment of that gap which would be resolved at $ 12.25/shr. I think the DOW can sell off about 1200 pts. from its high making it a 5% retracement. That should be enough to shake out BB weak hands here. My plan is to cover my short position and to go long .... a record amount of stock. Let's get this over with and base from here.

[bspence87]

At $ 12.73/shr, we aren't that far off the fulfillment of that gap which would be resolved at $ 12.25/shr.

That is the way I understood it as well. It just seems like such a huge retrace from our highs, almost 20%, so it is difficult for me to trust.

Thank you so much for the clarification and for sharing all of your knowledge and ideas for all of us. I've learned so much from sitting quietly and listening to what you say. I actually feel confident saying that I have some semblance of an idea of what I'm doing, after five years of blind trades.

[morganplus8]

That is the way I understood it as well. It just seems like such a huge retrace from our highs, almost 20%, so it is difficult for me to trust.

Thank you so much for the clarification and for sharing all of your knowledge and ideas for all of us. I've learned so much from sitting quietly and listening to what you say. I actually feel confident saying that I have some semblance of an idea of what I'm doing, after five years of blind trades.

I think everyone on this thread knows of the trials and tribulations of BlackBerry. We have to remind ourselves that this company is still a small one in the eyes of Wall Street. Gone are the days where the media pans the results and talks untruths about the company, only a few analysts live in that world now.

It is hard to support a current price of $ 14.00 right now, it will come when they post superior revenue growth in any sector, so be patient! The trick is to earn superior EPS and Revenues in your space and I think BlackBerry will accomplish this in time.

I started to buy back my short position today at $ 12.59/shr. I have 20,000 shares accounted for and covered and the rest of the position will come off soon. Right after I cover the short I'll be going long. I can tell you I have shorted 1,000 times over the years and this is the first time that I feel emotional about being short a stock. I can't wait to own it again. This from a guy that spent 90% of his investment time during a full year short. It feels a bit like stealing something you aren't suppose to have. GL

[W Hoa]

https://digital.itwc.ca/cdnjanuary2018/5/

[Corbu]

BlackBerry‏ @BlackBerry
We are proud to be named the 2017 #TSX Stock of the Year and honored to have opened @tsx_tsxv this morning to kick off #cantechconf

[Corbu]

Morgan Stanley / James E Faucette
January 31, 2018 01:37 AM GMT

MobileIron

Small Step Forward

Price Target: $4.50

MobileIron's announced partnership with Google Cloud has a compelling value proposition. Go-to-market will likely gate adoption in early days, keeping us on the sidelines for now.

Announcement encouraging, but initial distribution methods likely to be gating item to more material revenue in early stages. MobileIron's announcement Tuesday of their new product partnership with Google was interesting, as cloud vendors have often been thought of more as threats than partners. However, we would caution, that this collaboration (more below) will be sold through distributors and service provider partners initially. As a result, the speed at which this product could be adopted is likely gated by how quickly these partners can be trained and how aggressive they are at promoting it. Additionally, given many enterprises have corporate app stores today, success will be based on how compelling the partners are on displacing current solutions. As a result, we are not expecting material revenue until 2019.

Value proposition of product compelling. MobileIron announced a collaboration with Google Cloud to utilize Google's Orbitera commerce platform and MobileIron's security and application distribution capabilities to allow partners to build more secure app distribution environments for end enterprise customers. The advantage of this combined platform is that not only do enterprise end users get a more secure application environment, they get key insights into usage and other analytics that can help them assess usage and criticality of applications within those environments. With this insight, enterprise end customers can then be in a better position to negotiate contracts for those applications, etc. (e.g. if paying for 1000's of licenses, but only 10 people really using).

Remain EW, $4.50 PT. Our valuation (1.6x EV/18e Rev) is in-line with software peers on a revenue growth basis who have had past Q/Q volatility issues. We think there is meaningful optionality and potential to trade more in-line with growth adjusted peers if partnerships and new products were successful, but given the number of changes within this company, we would like to get a sense of execution before stepping into the name. Risks to our price target include continued delay in getting to profitability and competitive challenges brought by better financed competitors.

[bbjdog]

https://digital.itwc.ca/cdnjanuary2018/5/

Thanks mate!

In my opinion he is number one and not two.

Cheers!

[Corbu]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/head-...ship-john-chen

Head Or Heart Leadership?
Published on January 31, 2018

John Chen
Executive Chairman and CEO at BlackBerry

An expansive amount of business literature is available, which describes the many different leadership styles that exist, each with its own merits and each with a degree of effectiveness in certain circumstances. Regardless of the leadership style an individual leans towards, it is indispensable to be adept at making decisions with emotional and intellectual intelligence.

In today’s society, using your heart in business can be perceived as a sign of weakness and, on the contrary, leading with your head a sign of competence. In fact, the most effective leaders are skilled at both and are able to strike a good balance between tasks and people.

Emotional leadership has many benefits, the most important may be how by demonstrating a good character and care and empathy for your employees, teams feel more connected and engaged. Research unequivocally concludes that there are productivity gains to be realized from an engaged workforce. Put simply, employees that want to come to work and understand that they are making a valuable contribution to the organization are more invested in the needs of the team and the company than of themselves.

Leading with your head is equally important and has similarly indisputable advantages. Setting a strategy, setting goals, following a budget and holding employees accountable are just some of the core skills of head leadership. For an organization to be successful, competitive and innovative, leaders must use knowledge, logic, and analytical thinking when making business decisions.

When I agreed to join BlackBerry, my choice was certainly a heart-led one. I knew that if I did not accept the job of saving BlackBerry, an iconic company that many of us have grown up with, I would regret it and always wonder ‘what if’. It has been important for my team to know that I came to BlackBerry with this emotion, as they have then understood and emulated my dedication to the success of the company.

On the other hand, to define the company’s turnaround and growth strategy, I led with a strategic evaluation of what BlackBerry does best and built up from there. The BlackBerry of yesterday defined the smartphone industry, by developing devices that had our DNA, of security, connectivity, productivity and mobility, built into their foundation. The BlackBerry of today is a leader in the Enterprise of Things market, delivering software solutions with the same trusted DNA at their core.

To conclude, I will share a quote from Nelson Mandela: “A good head and a good heart are always a formidable combination.”

John Chen

Hear more about John’s head versus heart philosophy here.

[bbjdog]

Thanks Corbu!

Change of topic

Technology does kill jobs! History repeats!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1FK3DR

[W Hoa]

It seems that even the irrepressible Jim Cramer is fine with BlackBerry:

"Blackberry: "What can I say? It's got very good intellectual property. People continue to like it. It goes up over time. I don't mind."

[W Hoa]

For those that have access to seeking alpha:

Certicom: BlackBerry's Wild Card

Feb. 1.18
Summary

Certicom is the world-leading expert in encryption security, thanks to its legacy as a pioneer in Elliptical Curve Cryptography.

BlackBerry bought Certicom in 2009, beating Verisign’s offer (now Symantec).

ECC is widely recognized as the most secure cryptography standard, used, for example, to encrypt Bitcoin’s addresses.

Certicom is by far the leader in ECC implementations, with its monopoly over dozens patented ecryption protocols.

This leadership gives BlackBerry a competitive advantage for its auto business (for which secure encryption is paramount) and a great opportunity, due to the rapid expansion of Certicom's total potential markets.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/414...rrys-wild-card

[masterful]

Hi Morgan8,

Do you think there is a correction with the overall market like a 20-30 percent.
If you have a minute can I have your input.

Thank you.

[Corbu]

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/bl...rys-resurgence
Radar the latest success in BlackBerry’s evolution

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan8,

Do you think there is a correction with the overall market like a 20-30 percent.
If you have a minute can I have your input.

Thank you.

Hi Masterful,

Here is a chart of the DOW:



Those are some bearish targets that you have there. I for one, think we'll see something shallow like a 5% correction this time around. If you look at my chart, the heavy down arrow shows me that over the next couple of weeks we'll likely see around 25,300 in the DJ plus or minus a couple of hundred points. That's a healthy "shallow" correction and sets us up for new highs later on.

A 10% correction is a typical one, nothing to fear there, it takes us below the 50-dma unlike my idea so its more substantial and negates the idea of new highs anytime soon. That kind of drop takes time to repair.

Now a 20% correction takes us down to the heavy horz. line at the bottom of the chart and when you talk 20% you are talking about heading into a major bear market. To get down to 10% you need fear, the kind that comes from the 30-year bonds yielding north of 3.5% and running away with it. If the bond market yields 4% plus, the stock market has a new alternative in town for investment and money flows out of equities into bonds. The rapid raise in yield is hitting this market hard. You can thank Trump for that as a needless reduction in tax rates during a fully expanded economy gives you much higher yields. A point to think about is that yields are 30% higher in some cases and every single dollar of refinance has to pay that much more in costs. The damage due to high rates is far greater over time then the benefit of a tax cut. The reason, we borrow far more than $ 1.5T each year.

At 30%, that fat guy in NK would have launch some of those want-to-be missiles. In other words you need something no one could have imagined in order to sink the safe heaven of the USA. I don't see how we could plunge 30% in virtually any scenario there is today without another country getting involved.

To sum it up, I believe that we are going to see more sharp declines now as a result of fast money hitting investments and then leaving them just as fast. The one we are seeing today is nothing compared to 2009 and the past. In those days, EPS multiples were so high that many companies where trading at levels that would never be justified. Today, we see value in Amazon despite it trading above $ 1,400/shr,

[rarsen]

General information on smartphone international sales:

​Despite the iPhone 8 and iPhone X, smartphone sales just ran out of steam | ZDNet

sales of smartphones dipped dramatically in the last three months of the year and were at best flat for the whole of 2017.
Part of the problem is that the market is increasingly saturated -- there just aren't that many new smartphone customers to find. And -- just as bad for vendors -- consumers are mostly happy with the smartphones they've got and aren't being persuaded to upgrade by the new features on offer. This may hit flagship devices harder because many mid-range devices now contain most of the features that users actually want, without the premium price tag.

[masterful]

Hi Masterful,

Here is a chart of the DOW:



Those are some bearish targets that you have there. I for one, think we'll see something shallow like a 5% correction this time around. If you look at my chart, the heavy down arrow shows me that over the next couple of weeks we'll likely see around 25,300 in the DJ plus or minus a couple of hundred points. That's a healthy "shallow" correction and sets us up for new highs later on.

A 10% correction is a typical one, nothing to fear there, it takes us below the 50-dma unlike my idea so its more substantial and negates the idea of new highs anytime soon. That kind of drop takes time to repair.

Now a 20% correction takes us down to the heavy horz. line at the bottom of the chart and when you talk 20% you are talking about heading into a major bear market. To get down to 10% you need fear, the kind that comes from the 30-year bonds yielding north of 3.5% and running away with it. If the bond market yields 4% plus, the stock market has a new alternative in town for investment and money flows out of equities into bonds. The rapid raise in yield is hitting this market hard. You can thank Trump for that as a needless reduction in tax rates during a fully expanded economy gives you much higher yields. A point to think about is that yields are 30% higher in some cases and every single dollar of refinance has to pay that much more in costs. The damage due to high rates is far greater over time then the benefit of a tax cut. The reason, we borrow far more than $ 1.5T each year.

At 30%, that fat guy in NK would have launch some of those want-to-be missiles. In other words you need something no one could have imagined in order to sink the safe heaven of the USA. I don't see how we could plunge 30% in virtually any scenario there is today without another country getting involved.

To sum it up, I believe that we are going to see more sharp declines now as a result of fast money hitting investments and then leaving them just as fast. The one we are seeing today is nothing compared to 2009 and the past. In those days, EPS multiples were so high that many companies where trading at levels that would never be justified. Today, we see value in Amazon despite it trading above $ 1,400/shr,

Thanks for your time and input Morgan8! I really appreciate it sorry everyone for quoting in my reply but it's worth reading it.

Honestly the last one in 2009 still a nightmare for me hence I am feeling very nervous as I don't want to go through that again but that is probably fear overwritten all my logic and patience.

Anyway, thanks again as I feel more comfortable now from your respond.

[morganplus8]

Just to update my position, I have covered my short position and I am now long BlackBerry again. It feels good to be long here. The stock filled the gap at precisely $ 12.02/shr, no surprise there, it is looking good with an absence of buyers more than a large sell problem. The general market just made my 5% correction level on the DOW and the S&P with only the Nasdaq not achieving its 5% level. So for me, I'm all in as of 10 minutes ago. If it goes down 10%, which isn't out of the question at all, given the effects of the tax cut, I'll have some losses but that fine.

Best of luck to all, let's look for a reversal here and start to fill gaps on the way up this time. I should mention that we need a couple of days of moving sideways here to create some footing for a rally. That's it, BB could go positive by the end of the day as several big name stocks aren't doing bad at all. GL

Update: WOW! For the heck of it, I bought 110,000 shares of ACB this morning and noticed it is on a massive run. That's crazy. I was looking for $ .50 or so and stopped looking at it. My birthday is tomorrow and what a present this is. Crazy.

[masterful]

Well wishing you a happy birthday Morgan8! And I'm on ACB as well but in the red zone for now

[La Emperor]

Hi Morgan,

Happy Birthday! Wishing you all the best...

Once again thank you for all your contribution, especially nowadays when we traverse the seemingly rough waters as of late. Makes it a little easier to handle and less unnerving.

And welcome to ACB. I've been lucky enough to get on that one last year trading them back and forth
and holding a pretty decent position.

Cheers.

La Emperor

[Corbu]

New SHIELD Advisor Program Raises Bar for Security Certification | Inside BlackBerry