[morganplus8]

Morgan,

Do you see a cup and handle pattern being developed here? Really hoping to see SP to break out above from here. Speaking Bollinger Band, it has reached to the lower limit here.

Well done! I haven't posted that chart for no apparent reason but there are actually two of them and they are bullish if they go to completion:



I forgot to post this so thank you. If I get a chance there is another long term chart pattern that is equally bullish as well.

We are in a nice place now, we have corrected the over-bought levels and the RSI is back to support. The news has been reassuring too. As mentioned the BB's are at support so things look good right now. We just need some bottom line news from BlackBerry!

[Andy_bb_king]

Morgan, I asked one and you returned 2 or 3! LOL!

[Andy_bb_king]

Morgan,

To follow up on this, I guess many traders are seeing same things, if there is any sign that it is going to breakout, is it going to be sharp and violent?

[Corbu]

OT: Latest news from Avaya
https://www.commstrader.com/news/ind...ng-chapter-11/
Avaya One Step Closer to Exiting Chapter 11
Avaya has filed second amended plan of reorganisation supported by all major creditor groups

[morganplus8]

If we go back to the days of the Z10, that period was a time when so many were bullish on the prospects for BlackBerry. Many analysts bought into the play, Acker and his Quantitative Model showed some great value ... Kevin O'Leary along with Ross Healy ... who all seem to hate the play now! You can imagine how much stock traded in the $ 9.50 - $ 10.50 area during that period. Lots of money lost and many who would like to get out of it within that range today.

Here is the chart:



Let's face it, there is every reason why these holders wanted out of the stock when it rallied back in June of this year. Today though we are working off those weak hands and starting to create a bullish chart pattern at higher levels. The $ 10.50/shr area is really important now and we are in a period of time when the stock can do well. Let's see if the $ 10.50/shr support (bottom of the handle) sets us up for a major breakout from here.

PS. Just bought 24,500 shares of PSDV ( $ 1.185/shr) and it didn't do a thing for the price of the stock.

[morganplus8]

Morgan,

To follow up on this, I guess many traders are seeing same things, if there is any sign that it is going to breakout, is it going to be sharp and violent?

It is obvious to me today that the interest level in BB at ST is high (and other social investment/trading sites), ... clearly there are more and more investors looking at the trade. The second point to consider is the % of Funds buying the stock and those who add to their position. Thirdly, I would start to think of BlackBerry as a 580 MM share float kind of equity as those bonds are likely to be converted going forward. Also, if you believe the bonds will be converted, then you have to start looking at fully diluted earnings and for the Fiscal 2019 period, earnings are at around $ ,22/shr. The best valuation you can give the stock is cash + fixed assets plus a multiple of 30 times those earnings. I place that number at about $ 13.50/shr/USD fully diluted. Stocks normally trade at a 20% discount to their maximum value proposition. So we are close to a normal value today using the best case scenario discounted. I think the leverage comes from projected earnings and if BlackBerry can create an environment where cash or EPS values could/should go up, there is the reason/catalyst for much higher valuations and hence a strong rally. Stocks who are leaders in their field and command that sector can carry huge EPS levels and so BlackBerry just has to prove that QNX is a leader, that the EMM portfolio etc are leaders and show some superior growth and you'll have a massive rally. Leading plays with superior earnings rally far ahead of those future EPS levels and then the earnings catch up. I hope that makes sense?

I think BlackBerry is approaching those levels now and you can see it in the way Chen is carrying himself lately along with how Funds are reacting to the progress of Chen. We are at the early stages of that kind of confidence in the company and so that burst in the stock itself above multi-year highs might not be that far off. The traders are clearly looking at it now as well so it is a combination of a number of things that is setting the stage for a rally here. Again, the stock really hasn't done anything market wise compared to its peers so the rally could be very strong on the basis of limited choices to pump.

If it can hold these levels, lose the weak hands and have Funds add along with new Funds arriving, the float will dry up and the rally will be huge. It will go unrealistically high and also enjoy support at those levels as distribution of stock is usually done that way.

[W Hoa]

The comment above, #104081 , is quite possibly your most optimistic and detailed offering on the state of BBRY ever Morgan. Thank-you.

[morganplus8]

The comment above, #104081 , is quite possibly your most optimistic and detailed offering on the state of BBRY ever Morgan. Thank-you.

Ha! Those feelings were derailed a couple of quarters ago when Chen painted a terrible picture of BB where revenues weren't going to grow until the back-end of the Fiscal year. What? I was angry about that as I felt at the time that he shouldn't be so candid about these things. Then, he surprises us all be essentially telling us that he doesn't understand revenues that well and in fact they look very good indeed. I can see how during this transition he could be getting confused with where BB is at that time. Now he is aware that surprises in revenues are the norm, they will continue to happen because BlackBerry isn't a one trick pony. In addition, he is carrying himself well as if to know something we don't. On top of that, others are now singing praises of BB, something different of us. I was a big believer in BB and it took a hit, now, I see things continuing the way I think they should and I'm still a big fan with a concern regarding Chen and his brutal honesty. I worry about the general market but not so much the future of BB. At the same time, I pulled some money out of this trade as I felt it could settle back in price and base out for a bit. Having realized some gains in this trade, I'm ready to go all in again soon. It's funny, my trading account has made a fortune in BB so far, it is the "smarter account" of the two! My holdings are making money in BB but not nearly as much. Today, we are hearing so many positive things from the company itself and customers that this one is easy to hold onto despite the general market condition. Thanks for your comment W Hoa!!

[bbjdog]

Great reading material Morgan and Corbu! Thank's mates. But the market is what scares me a lot. Time will tell me, if I was a scary cat or not. Gotta love BlackBerry team!!!!

Cheers mates

P.S go LEAFS go. Lol

[Corbu]

P.S go LEAFS go. Lol

[bbjdog]

LMHO!!!

Every time I open my mouth, the Leafs have a bad game. Still early and I have hope!

Cheers mate!

[Corbu]

Every time I open my mouth, the Leafs have a bad game. Still early and I have hope!

Still early indeed and look at it this way: you are still young and you can afford to wait another 50 years!!!

Sorry. Could not resist.

Be well, my friend!

[bbjdog]

Still early indeed and look at it this way: you are still young and you can afford to wait another 50 years!!!

Sorry. Could not resist.

Be well, my friend!

????????????????????????????????????

Hope the question marks show my anger. Lol

P.S. I wait another fifty years , I will be the oldest man on earth.

[Corbu]

????????????????????????????????????

Hope the question marks show my anger. Lol

P.S. I wait another fifty years , I will be the oldest man on earth.

Too funny.

You won't have to wait that long. Mighty good team: talented, young and fast! _{(Just like us!)}

[bbjdog]

talented, young and fast! (Just like us!)

Gotta love the young guns! Its only a mater of time.

Cheers mate and Thanks for everything!!!!!!!!!

[Corbu]

https://www.itproportal.com/features...cybersecurity/
Blackberry CEO: Why there’s no "magic pill” for cybersecurity

[zlatno]

PS. There is one thing that I forgot to mention, if you are into TA, the Bollinger Bands for PSDV are the tightest range I have ever seen for a stock, we literally are able to touch the top and bottom of the range in the same day and not influence the gap at all. Something is about to happen soon.

I'm not really into TA and don't understand it much. I hope when you say Something is about to happen, that you mean something great.
I like the fact that volume is higher than average going into the Q Report. I would be happier if the price was at least inching up. If with you 24.500shares, no change in SP yesterday.
I have a big Poker Game this weekend. If I do well, I will buy more on Monday (unless the SP already spikes by then).
Side Note: Whenever I buy into a stock, it ALWAYS goes down right away. It will go up later on, but the first move is always negative. HA!

[bbjdog]

Weekend music mates!



https://forums.crackberry.com/e?link...token=ymUKvI4h

[kadakn01]

Similar setup to end of 2013 - 2014, some notable differences are we were coming off a "false rally" as the run-up to about $18 had just happened based on Z10 sales or lack there of! Additionally the short interest even under $10 was north of 100M shares and very few (about 10%) were covered on any pullbacks. The volume in 2014 was greater in total due again to post interest after the run-up, however the down volume outpaced the up by a large margin. Also, the volume was noticeably lower than the previous run-up to $18 from a relative standpoint, whereby the recent volume was much higher than the past 18 months. After the initial upswing in Jan 2014 and then the second leg (similar to this second leg to above $11) in July, about 5 months later. This most recent move is also about 5 months from the first move was May to the second leg up in October. A move to 10 is possible, however the fundamentals of this company today are so different and we are about to enter year 5 of JC, on Nov 13th. A move above 12 would be huge as this chart from another site indicates in Logarithmic form. It seems we are coming to a resolution of this long term bear stock.

[Andy_bb_king]

Kadakn01,

Have your HF friends, who shorted BlackBerry long time ago, covered lately? Last time you said they haven't. How about now?

[kadakn01]

not yet it appears still a "consensus short" and a better short interest / outstanding would be less than 5% and ideally under 3% similar to a INTC, however as this is a mid cap company that still has fluctuating revenue, i would say under 10% (46M/530M) is still a plus, with respect to where it was before. These shorts care less about technicals and price, and more about pure fundamental data points, like revenue growth over the mkt, etc. It has been shown that heavily shorted stocks due under perform the market in the long term, so the lower levels is better. I would say a level under 25M would be ideal.

[FeitaInc]

The clearest choice is PSDV. They have a Q report on the 7th of next month and they are deep into major events over the next 3 months. I normally don't give SA the time of day but here is a good summary of their near future:


As for SPHS, their news will come starting in late January and it is a stock to own for sure. We hold a very large block in this one too and will not sell it until it is above $ 10.00/shr. There you have it, all stocks are risky, many don't make any sense like MOBL. I love BlackBerry but I have pulled back a bit because it's TA is not clear. It has support at its 20-EMA which is $ 10.90/shr and more support at $ 10.50/shr which happens to be where I think it is great value. As CJ pointed out though, it doesn't have any strong levels of support at this time due to that major run-up in the price post their last Q. And so the choice for me today is PSDV, followed by SPHS anywhere near $ 2.10/shr. HALO is a real investment that you can sleep nights with and BB is one to buy on dips or sell naked puts on.

Morgan, if I may ask, roughly what are you modeling for PSDV and BB medio-long term? or to be more specific, you wrote that you might sell SPHS once it's above $10, at what levels are you thinking the same for PSDV and BB?

and yeah, full disclaimers and all.

[phil17]

PSDV has been super frustrating for me. pretty sure I need it to increase 80% before even breaking even at this stage

[morganplus8]

Morgan, if I may ask, roughly what are you modeling for PSDV and BB medio-long term? or to be more specific, you wrote that you might sell SPHS once it's above $10, at what levels are you thinking the same for PSDV and BB?

and yeah, full disclaimers and all.

I'll try to answer your questions here. I sold some BlackBerry, all of it actually, out of my trading account. I moved that money into PSDV and one other investment as I'm really heavily invested in BB. In my long term account, I wrote some calls against some of my block of BB to bring in some revenues as well. My problem isn't with BB, it's the general market with an RSI=85 we could take a dump at any time. I own a very large position in BB so all of this activity isn't making a dent in my overall holdings in the stock.

As for targets, with BB I have a valuation on it of $ 10.50/shr as a base, and I think it can easily get to $ 12.25/shr this year. If they continue to surprise us, that target can move higher into the $ 13.00 - $ 14.00 area easily as well. It is acting more like a normal investment these days and I think this is because of the move to the NYSE. There is excellent support just below the 20-EMA and today we popped above it without the general market so you can see it is trading in a much better way now. I really like how the company is doing and how well the stock is holding up here. At some point I might even buy back those shares again.

Moving onto PSDV, it isn't about the price of the stock today, that means nothing, it is all about their execution over the next 3 months. We will hear a bit more from the CEO next week but the real news will be the trial data on the 6 person knee study. This is the first time that this tiny company has moved into the mainstream of the pharma world. They are doing so with a delivery system that is proven already and that is key, if this "test" works well for pain relief on the basis of this study, the company has just re-invented itself. It is no longer a niche company dealing with issues of the eye, they are now a company with a mechanism for dealing with all kinds of chronic, localized pain. The stock price will reflect the speed at which they can take their delivery system to market, to obtain partners and to scale the business. I can't place a short term target on something like this because it will be driven by speculation for the most part. In the long run, a company that can address mass issues of pain medication delivery is worth a bundle. PFE owns 4.7% of the company now so this is something to watch. I invest in companies that are debt free, lots of cash, a proprietary product and mass appeal and this tiny company ticks those boxes so its a good bet for me. GL

[fanBBRY]

I am surprised by the stock move today.