[morganplus8]

If the historic SP of SPHS is anything to go by (which it probably isn't), it looks like the "the range" is 0.25x to 20x for the current SP. I don't know what you are modeling, but of the two I'd prefer 20x.

That sounds perfect, I had to make the statement about this one being speculative so that others know we need to be careful here and you clearly are.

As for the past, there is zero correlation between the stock price 2, 3, 4, or more years ago. For some of us, it came to our attention when the company held $ 30 MM in the bank without any proven studies and their Phase III failed them. The CEO decided to spend all of their cash on a study that had failed thus far. He wanted to see it to the end and so most investors bailed on it sending it below $ .50/shr going into tax loss season. He ended up prevailing and the stock shot up from there. With the float so small it had no problem making some incredible highs. After it settled back, everyone realized they needed cash and a plan and this CEO had already shown us that he was very a radical CEO so the stock dropped back again. Since then, we have seen the stock position itself for more studies, they raised capital (diluted common stock) and are currently deciding if they want to partner this development or go it alone. At each stage the look and risk of the company has changed so much. You can see the stock pop on the slightest of news as the potential is huge here. I also don't think anyone is watching it now so we'll wait to see if they can figure out the dosage they want to present to the FDA this Fall. That's a quick history on the topic. The Baker Brothers will likely buy a large position in it if they get their ducks in a row.

We can say the same thing about BlackBerry, why would you look back more than 2-years on the chart when the company has evolved so much? They have RADAR, acquired new companies, are perusing IP licensing agressively and have a mountain of cash with a new CEO. BlackBerry isn't the same company it was 3 years ago. If anything it is even more frustrating in a positive way because they have so much potential now.

[Corbu]

FWIW (hoping it is true):
BlackBerry KEYone to release soon in China, gets certified by TENAA – The Android Soul

[Corbu]

Slow news day...
http://www.standard-freeholder.com/2...rol-operations
Blackberry handover at Cornwall's Canadian Forces School of Aerospace Control Operations

[Corbu]

Interview with Matthew Talbot:
https://techcentral.co.za/interview-...atthew-talbot/

BBM continues to enjoy a loyal following in key emerging markets, including Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa.

In the podcast, Talbot explains what’s happened to BBM in recent years as BlackBerry shifted focus away from its handset business. Find out why he believes the messaging service has a robust future on Android and iOS.

Talbot talks about how BBM is positioned in the market relative to rivals such as WhatsApp and WeChat, and how the company is adding content services, including a new music discovery platform, aimed at growing its South African user base.

[anon(9100201)]

@Corbu

Could you find out some more details about BBM cosumer division via your contacts (revenue expectations, exit strategy (IPO), future features and new markets) given that BBM seem to be really doing well and adding new features constantly (e.g. ÜBER bot): https://iono.fm/e/448398?

[Corbu]

@mhlan001

Funny you should mention that since I posted that very interview with Matthew Talbot (quite interesting, imo) a few minutes ago.

I doubt I'll be able to get some specific answers since it's all up to Creative Media Works now. But if I can get some info, I will.

Cheers,

[anon(9100201)]

@mhlan001

Funny you should mention that since I posted that very interview with Matthew Talbot (quite interesting, imo) a few minutes ago.

I doubt I'll be able to get some specific answers since it's all up to Creative Media Works now. But if I can get some info, I will.

Cheers,

Great thanks, very much appreciated. I am really curious about BlackBerry's plans with BBM consumer. I mean they did license it, but as far as I know they have no share in the Corporation that is handling BBM consumer. If BBM would be able to become the WeChat of Indonesia, Africa and maybe the USA, an IPO would lead to a very high valuation for BBM cosumer.

In my opinion BBM cosumer alone could be worth x times more than BlackBerry's current market capitalization if executed correctly.

[La Emperor]

Since we're talking about BBM, here's some tidbit about the recent development in Indonesia. I did the translate below the link courtesy of our Google friend.

Eliza Sariaatmadja: Inovasi Teknologi untuk Memudahkan Masyarakat Lewat BBM - News Liputan6.com

Creative Media Work (CMW), the company that manages BlackBerry Messenger messaging applications (BBM) reveals innovation plans that help make it easier for people. It was delivered Business Development CMW, Eliza Sariaatmadja on the sidelines of the 4th Congress of Diaspora Indonesia in Jakarta, July 1, 2017.
"Sixty-four percent of Indonesians do not have access to banking or financial services, and with BBM platforms, they will be able to send money and access all these services without having a bank account that is sometimes difficult," said Eliza.
He cited, one of the innovations of fuel, among others, financial inclusion support for the people of Indonesia.
Eliza explains further, BBM will also support health access to the wider community. Later on there will be a "BBM Health" service that provides access to doctor's consultation via the internet.

"With BBM Health and with the internet, we can use this technology to facilitate access to all Indonesian people consultation to the doctor through BBM," said Eliza.

Eliza who studied at the University of New South Wales, Australia is one of Indonesia's diaspora who currently manages an international company with operational teams in Waterloo, Mississauga, Ottawa, Singapore, Jakarta, United Arab Emirates and South Africa.

[Corbu]

Thanks, La Emperor!

I recommend everyone listen to that interview with Matthew Talbot. He is candid and tackles many subjects. BBM seems to be doing quite well, notably in Indonesia.

[bbjdog]

Since we're talking about BBM, here's some tidbit about the recent development in Indonesia. I did the translate below the link courtesy of our Google friend.

Eliza Sariaatmadja: Inovasi Teknologi untuk Memudahkan Masyarakat Lewat BBM - News Liputan6.com

Creative Media Work (CMW), the company that manages BlackBerry Messenger messaging applications (BBM) reveals innovation plans that help make it easier for people. It was delivered Business Development CMW, Eliza Sariaatmadja on the sidelines of the 4th Congress of Diaspora Indonesia in Jakarta, July 1, 2017.
"Sixty-four percent of Indonesians do not have access to banking or financial services, and with BBM platforms, they will be able to send money and access all these services without having a bank account that is sometimes difficult," said Eliza.
He cited, one of the innovations of fuel, among others, financial inclusion support for the people of Indonesia.
Eliza explains further, BBM will also support health access to the wider community. Later on there will be a "BBM Health" service that provides access to doctor's consultation via the internet.

"With BBM Health and with the internet, we can use this technology to facilitate access to all Indonesian people consultation to the doctor through BBM," said Eliza.

Eliza who studied at the University of New South Wales, Australia is one of Indonesia's diaspora who currently manages an international company with operational teams in Waterloo, Mississauga, Ottawa, Singapore, Jakarta, United Arab Emirates and South Africa.

Gotta love that Google translator. Lol

Thanks and cheers!

[bbjdog]

Hey gang, I was chilling with a cold one and watching a tv series on "The world without Canada. "
Nice little piece on Blackberry and the INNOVATION into the the smart phone.

Here is a link but you will probably need subscription.

The World Without Canada Video - Natural Resources | Season 1 Episode 1 - history.ca

Here it is!
http://thankyoucanada.history.ca/carousel/blackberry

[Corbu]

And a bit more of Matthew Talbot here:
https://www.bbin.in/2017/07/bbm-laun...age360-africa/
BBM LAUNCHES MUSIC PLATFORM STAGE360 IN AFRICA!

[Corbu]

This sp is testing our mettle, here...

[world traveler and former ceo]

This sp is testing our mettle, here...

Quite honestly, unless there is significant news (IP win, QNX major news, Radar) I think it will continue to drift lower until next quarter or quarter after that... it's lost its "mojo"...

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

Reading material.

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/266...-10-to-buy-now

[anon(9100201)]

Quite honestly, unless there is significant news (IP win, QNX major news, Radar) I think it will continue to drift lower until next quarter or quarter after that... it's lost its "mojo"...

Posted via CB10

Yep John Chen again bombed the boat with another real bad ER. He might be a could COO, but he is not a good CEO since he does not know how to represent BlackBerry and how to sell its story or generate excitement among investors about the future

Posted via CB10

[robot_ca]

Yep John Chen again bombed the boat with another real bad ER. He might be a could COO, but he is not a good CEO since he does not know how to represent BlackBerry and how to sell its story or generate excitement among investors about the future

Posted via CB10

I'll just throw out there that at this point in the turn around he may not be interested in generating excitement in investors (or competitors). In other words he may be content to stay out of the limelight for awhile in order to buy time to execute his plan. Stock price can stay range bound based on little to no news and a stock buy back program set at $10.

Posted via CB10

[anon(9100201)]

I'll just throw out there that at this point in the turn around he may not be interested in generating excitement in investors (or competitors). In other words he may be content to stay out of the limelight for awhile in order to buy time to execute his plan. Stock price can stay range bound based on little to no news and a stock buy back program set at $10.

Posted via CB10

I am sorry, but he is the CEO of a listed company and creating shareholder value should be among his top priorities. The CEO of AMD was also able to fire up the share price long before the turnaround gained traction. If John Chen would really act like you assume I would sue him immediately for violating his fiduciary duties.

[FeitaInc]

Yep John Chen again bombed the boat with another real bad ER. He might be a could COO, but he is not a good CEO since he does not know how to represent BlackBerry and how to sell its story or generate excitement among investors about the future

Posted via CB10

Are you kidding me?
As Benjamin Graham said (roughly) "in the short run the stock market is like a voting machine, but in the long run the market is like a weighing machine.". Sure, it would've be better for my mood if the rally had continued success post-ER, but to conclude that JC is a bad CEO on the stocks performance for the past two weeks is (in my mind) at best to completely misunderstand what's going on. The ER was actually quite good, but it was poorly communicated ahead of the actual ER.

Furthermore, I can only echo what robot_ca wrote. (Except I don't think they'll be buying much stocks.)

[FeitaInc]

Reading material.

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/266...-10-to-buy-now

Could QTM be a good fit for BBRY?

The P/E is really high, but yeah..

[anon(9100201)]

Are you kidding me?
As Benjamin Graham said (roughly) "in the short run the stock market is like a voting machine, but in the long run the market is like a weighing machine.". Sure, it would've be better for my mood if the rally had continued success post-ER, but to conclude that JC is a bad CEO on the stocks performance for the past two weeks is (in my mind) at best to completely misunderstand what's going on. The ER was actually quite good, but it was poorly communicated ahead of the actual ER.

Furthermore, I can only echo what robot_ca wrote. (Except I don't think they'll be buying much stocks.)

No I am not kidding you. John Chen is a good COO, but in my opinion a bad CEO since he does not a good job representing the company. A good CEO knows how to sell a growth story to investors (take CRM or AMD as an example). Also in my opinion it is unexcusable that he said during the last ER that BB now has to concentrate on sales. First that is something he should have done long ago and not just now and second he already said that during the April ER, but apparently took no real action.

[FeitaInc]

A good CEO knows how to sell a growth story to investors (take CRM or AMD as an example).

Without having followed either AMD or CRM (and I guess this might be said to be cherry picking somewhat), if you look at SP YTD: AMD is +15%, CRM is +24% while BBRY is +38%. Revenue for AMD is roughly flat for the past years, increasing for CRM but have falle of a cliff for BBRY. Gross profit has fallen for AMD, risen for CRM and fallen for BBRY. If AMD or CRM has pivoted, I haven't hear of it.
Based on the above, I'm hard pressed to conclude either way.

I fully agree that the communication prior to and on the ER could have been better, and that JC et al. effectively killed the momentum of the SP. I was also surprised by the way he teed up the PR for his competitors. With that said, I still remain confident that JC is the right man for the job and that he has hired a good executive team.

[anon(9100201)]

Without having followed either AMD or CRM (and I guess this might be said to be cherry picking somewhat), if you look at SP YTD: AMD is +15%, CRM is +24% while BBRY is +38%. Revenue for AMD is roughly flat for the past years, increasing for CRM but have falle of a cliff for BBRY. Gross profit has fallen for AMD, risen for CRM and fallen for BBRY. If AMD or CRM has pivoted, I haven't hear of it.
Based on the above, I'm hard pressed to conclude either way.

I fully agree that the communication prior to and on the ER could have been better, and that JC et al. effectively killed the momentum of the SP. I was also surprised by the way he teed up the PR for his competitors. With that said, I still remain confident that JC is the right man for the job and that he has hired a good executive team.

AMD is up almost 300% over the last twelve months while BB is only up 50%, so where is your point defending John Chen`s abmisal performance regarding share price?

[FeitaInc]

AMD is up almost 300% over the last twelve months while BB is only up 50%, so where is your point defending John Chen`s abmisal performance regarding share price?

Normally the words "up +50% (YoY)" and "abysmal (CEO performance)" aren't in the same sentence.

[app_Developer]

AMD is up almost 300% over the last twelve months while BB is only up 50%, so where is your point defending John Chen`s abmisal performance regarding share price?

Without the change in direction that Chen brought, I doubt the share price would be much higher than 0.00 at this point. The company is much healthier than it was.

Plus the SP is still up quite a bit for the year. The company isn't bleeding to death. Chen is aggressively pursuing BB shareholder interests in court to the tune of another $900M. Those are good things.

Now his communication skills are absolutely abysmal and they do need to find an answer to that. Further, he and his leadership team are dancing dangerously closer to misleading investors IMO. That is a concern and they have to cut that out.

But compared to where they were headed, I'm still, on balance, pleased with this investment and what Chen has done.