[Corbu]

Morgan Stanley
June 20, 2017
James E. Faucette

BlackBerry Ltd

Sizing up the QNX Bull Case

Stock Rating Industry View Price Target
Equal-weight Cautious $10.00

Autos represent optionality for BBRY, and QNX's lead should drive momentum in FY19/20. But we also expect efforts by OEMs and technology providers to cap long-term share gains. Raising PT from $7 to $10 primarily on the Qualcomm win, and a modest uptick for autos.

BlackBerry Ltd From To
Price Target $7.00 $10.00

New opportunities in autos and transportation pursued by OEMs and technology providers alike. To date, QNX (BBRY's embedded operating system) has been implemented most widely for infotainment platforms, but investors are now anticipating meaningful growth opportunities in other aspects of the connected car: in ADAS systems, and in the enabling of firmware updates over the air (or "FOTA"), etc. Bulls expect incremental use cases to expand licensed content 3x per vehicle, but we think outsized share gains in automotive profits will be difficult to sustain over the long term. All major auto OEMs are seeking to develop their own systems software to differentiate from themselves competitors. And while certain aspects will likely remain outsourced to technology providers, both Google and Apple are also developing alternative ecosystems. Separately, Radar represents an incremental growth opportunity for BlackBerry in trucking, but is also being pursued by incumbent providers of asset management solutions with sticky installed bases.

Bull case contemplates significantly higher dollar content and penetration vs. our current estimates. We currently estimate QNX revenue to grow to ~$260mm in FY20 from approximately $130mm in FY17, driven by incremental connected car/ADAS license sales capturing up to $16 per vehicle (up from the typical $3-5 for historical QNX sales). In a bull case, we would expect QNX licenses to capture ~$21 per vehicle and 20% of global light vehicle shipments by FY23, which we believe would imply that auto OEMs are unable to make progress in their own internal development efforts. The bull case for Radar assumes penetration of 10% of the roughly 4mm semi-trailers in the United States.

Raise PT to $10, helped by Qualcomm arbitration win. Remain EW as balanced QNX view built in. We raise our estimates and value the total BlackBerry software business at 3.5-4.0x FY19 revenue (in line with software peers). Our estimates assume QNX's connected car and ADAS platform achieves 7-8% light vehicle penetration on expanding dollar content, which is below the bull case but could also prove optimistic should efforts by auto OEMs and other technologyproviders result in pricing materialize. We are also adding $2 per share from the $940mm QCOM arbitration award, which assumes the proceeds are not taxed.

Expectations going into the May report. We expect Q1 rev. / EPS of $263mm / $0.01, which includes 11% YoY growth in total software and services revenue ($185mm) and a 25% sequential decline in SAF revenue ($37mm). Mobility Solutions revenue is expected to continue declining ($50mm estimated for Q1) as legacy device shipments phase out, and while BB Merah Putih and TCL both launched new BlackBerry branded smartphones, we expect associated licensing revenue to remain negligible in Q1 and modest for the FY (currently forecasting $9mm on 600k units for FY18).

[Corbu]

BlackBerry announces security enhancements to its enterprise software platform | IT World Canada News

[Corbu]

Here's the PR:
BlackBerry Enables the Enterprise of Things to Thrive with Enhanced Mobile-Security Platform

[masterful]

OMG really our friend from MS? I didn't have my coffee yet but will read it again.

Thanks Corbu!

[Corbu]

OMG really our friend from MS? I didn't have my coffee yet but will read it again.

Thanks Corbu!

Drip, drip, drip...

[world traveler and former ceo]

Would like to see MS response when Q1 actuals blow by street forecasts of Q1 $263mm Rev and $0.01 eps... for the beat on both....

Posted via CB10

[W Hoa]

Faucette is assigning a license fee of $15 per phone from BB Merah Putih and TCL and projecting sales of 600k units for the FY. That seems to be a fairly conservative figure and doesn't account for Optiemus in India

[morganplus8]

Would like to see MS response when Q1 actuals blow by street forecasts of Q1 $263mm Rev and $0.01 eps... for the beat on both....

Posted via CB10

I was thinking the same thing, the worst analysis I have seen from them yet. When you back out net cash, using over a billion in revenue for FY19, you get a multiple of only 3.0 if you are lucky. They can't even value cash right. Their target should have been $ 12.00 - $ 12.50 but that would mean a 80% uptick from their last mistake. How is it possible that these guys get any business from the real world?

Doesn't matter, as you mentioned, they'll have a trailing upgrade after Chen talks to us on Friday.

[Corbu]

Overview: Latest Upgrades to BlackBerry Software Portfolio Enhance IT’s Ability to Secure, Connect, and Mobilize | Inside BlackBerry
Work Better, and Smarter with BlackBerry’s Updated Workspaces Platform | Inside BlackBerry
Analyze This! New Add-On to BlackBerry Dynamics Enables Better, Smarter, More Secure Application Management | Inside BlackBerry
Collaborate Smarter and Faster with Updates to BlackBerry’s Productivity Applications | Inside BlackBerry
Five New Features That Make BlackBerry UEM More Prepared Than Ever for the Enterprise of Things | Inside BlackBerry

[Mr BBRY]

OT: Biotech

Looks like IBB is making the breakout I was hoping for. I'm hoping it can be sustained.

HALO is going along for the ride too. I believe they are anticipating an FDA decision on Monday, 6/26, which could be the catalyst for the recent run up. I'm assuming there will be further upside upon approval. GL to anyone here who is going along for this ride with me.

Halozyme Therapeutics - FDA Advisory Committee Provides Unanimous Recommendation For Subcutaneous Rituximab Coformulated With Halozyme Enhanze Technology

[Corbu]

[kellyweng88]

^^^that isn't anything new right? Just promo vids for the partnership right?

[Corbu]

^^^that isn't anything new right? Just promo vids for the partnership right?

I believe so.

[Corbu]

David Burrows discusses BlackBerry - Video - BNN

[FeitaInc]

M8 do you have any insight you would like to share about what is going on with SPHS or how I should think about the movement the SP has had over the last few days?

it used to be my third biggest holding, but now it's fallen to number eight. that said, I'm not planning on doing anything just yet.

[morganplus8]

M8 do you have any insight you would like to share about what is going on with SPHS or how I should think about the movement the SP has had over the last few days?

it used to be my third biggest holding, but now it's fallen to number eight. that said, I'm not planning on doing anything just yet.

At the risk of repeating myself, this is a micro-cap stock, no revenue, no product for sale at all. Few if any really know about it and no Funds can invest in it. Having said that, it has a great drug in its pipeline, lots of cash, warrants for more cash at $ 4.00/shr and the potential is there with a Phase III in hand as well as other studies. You are betting that they will find the right dosage for their final study and that will occur in the Fall in terms of real data. So there is this large gap in time for us to wait for them to produce that data. The IBB Index has just broken out and confirmed such, today. The large cap companies with a pipeline and sales go first, then it trickles down to the micro-cap stocks much later. So now is the time to be patient, to acquire stock in your fav play and to take up a hobby or watch soft porn. You must wait for them to release news, there is no other metric to promote a stock like this. The final comment I would make is that you will know when its time to play as the volume will sky rocket and you will be asking "why?", that's when the stock is set to run. For me, it's a chicken game against the almighty BlackBerry, I need to see those numbers to decide if I want to buy SPHS on its own of trade in some BBRY for more SPHS.

As for the IBB Index, Mr. BBRY got it absolutely right, the index broke out today on confirmation so now you will see HALO and ACAD, stocks like that take off.

Let's get BBRY so high that we have a hard time hanging onto it any more and go from there! GL

[FeitaInc]

Sorry for asking you to repeat yourself M8, but thanks for taking the time to do so. I can't say I know much about non-tech stocks and the dynamics of the market, so you've really opened up my eyes in so far as to make me realize how little I know.

The background for the question was that I'm a little torn between just being patient with the portfolio I have or to reduce the number of companies I'm invested in.

So now is the time to be patient, to acquire stock in your fav play and to take up a hobby or watch soft porn.

This comment really made me chuckle.

[Mr BBRY]

Did you guys catch that impressive close for BBRY today? The Nasdaq , Dow & S&P all sold off pretty hard for the last hour of trading led by a fall in oil and BBRY stood still and barely budged. Exciting times for this stock for sure!

[Corbu]

Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders:
Tomorrow, 10 AM

Jun 14, 2017 - WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(June 14, 2017) - BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY)(TSX:BB) will hold its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders on Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 10 a.m. ET in Waterloo, Ontario. A live webcast can be accessed at http://ca.blackberry.com/company/investors/events.html.

[Corbu]

Software hits or misses? BlackBerry to report results this week after two-month stock rally | Financial Post

[Radagast2012]

Anyone at or listening to the 'Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders'? If yes, anything interesting being said?

[Corbu]

OT:
SoftBank Corp invests $100 million into cybersecurity start-up Cybereason

[morganplus8]

OT:
SoftBank Corp invests $100 million into cybersecurity start-up Cybereason

Thanks for the link Corbu.

I read the last line, "The consensus among security experts is that the number of attacks are going to increase in frequency due to the proliferation of connected devices and the so-called Internet of Things."

.... and thought to myself that the reason attacks are going to "increase" is because not nearly enough IT/CEO professionals are spending the kind of money needed to impede/discourage attacks in the first place. There is an open door policy still in place around the world, just pay the ransom and move on. BlackBerry and others should be seeing far more than just a 13 - 15% rate of growth in their sector. So now we are going to see funding in an area that no one will support anyway. Let's see some real sales growth and an established market for existing products that matches the problem at hand and then let's add more twists to the solution. That's my rant for today!

As for Chen, he seems to be upbeat today so that's our feedback from the AGM, let's see him carry that into Friday morning.

[rarsen]

Re-enforcing part of Morgan's comment on lack of reaction of IT/CEO professionals to ongoing concerns where temporary band-aids will eventually come back and bite you. And the breaches will only get worse:

Study finds cybersecurity pros are hiding breaches, bypassing protocols, and paying ransoms - TechRepublic

[_dimi_]

https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleas...ard-of-directo

I think Timothy Dattels should show up for board meetings more often

Although, he did seem to be the man behind BlackBerry's rescue.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/rep...service=mobile

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