[Corbu]

While we were away:
BlackBerry Launches Technical Expert Video Series on YouTube with ?Good? News | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog
Four Reasons Why Mobile Containerization Now Matters More Than Ever | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[smart548]

FYI:

https://www.eff.org/press/releases/e...communications

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

http://blogs.blackberry.com/2016/04/...e-deployments/

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[morganplus8]

Morgan - I remember you stated that BlackBerry as a SW company would have somewhere between .60-.70 in EPS? I can't find the original post, but could you please in a nutshell explain how you arrive there? How will the 30 percent increase affect EPS and wouldn't a MOBL acquisition be smart because of the synergies it offers?

Posted via CB10

Hi _dimi_ !

Sorry about that, I gave credit to Spiller for asking this question when it was you who wondered how we arrive at $ .60 - $ .80/shr in immediate positive earnings, less HW. It is really a case of several things happening here, as many analysts agree, BlackBerry would be approaching 80% gross margins on just SW alone, and of that, a net of 50% to the bottom line with a 30% organic growth rate in place. So $ 527 MM X 1.30% = $ 685.00 and when we multiply that by net margins of 50% we get $ 342 MM or $ 342/515 MM shares or $ .66/shr. So now you can play around with that Net Margin to the bottom line if you want but it doesn't end there. They get tax credits again versus a write-down in assets, they can sell assets related to HW for a considerable amount of cash, and finally, they can reduce that Convertible Bond cost, currently at $ 75 MM to zero by spending 1.04% of the $ 1.25 Billion in debt to retire it completely. You end up with a range of net income from just Software of $ 342 - $ 75 MM in debt or $ .52/shr as is, plus some gain back from asset adjustments, or, you can take it further and include the payment of the debt in that calculation to earn the full $ .66/shr plus asset adjustments. Their cash would drop to $ 1.3 Billion but we now have assets in the form of property and patents worth a pile of money here. And so cash would climb by $ 342 MM each year and they could sell off a turnkey phone business at the same time, complete with all the patents you need to make it functional on a cost basis.

John Chen thinks he can reduce the cost of phones against the bottom line to zero and thus have that gross revenue and his SW income as stated above. He is looking at buying back bonds when they come available in the Fall at 104% of their face value so you can already see what is going on here. He is so sure of his plan that he is spending money on a share buyback to boot. What's all of this worth to BlackBerry? They would have a growth engine in SW, a leader in their sector and a super clean, debt free balance sheet setup for acquisitions.

So that's $ 1.3 B in cash or over $ 2.50 in cash per share, plus massive assets they don't need, plus cash flow and cash growth in software that is superior to software growth of its sector. The P/E ratio for $ .60 - $ .80/shr plus organic growth is at least 20 - 30 X earnings making the stock worth $ 12.00 - $ 18.00/shr/US upon the announcement. And so Prem could see himself breaking even on this play just be dumping HW. The additional gain in the stock comes from Prem wanting to hold more stock as his pivotal ownership of 10% drops dramatically as the bonds are retired. You would see a great deal of money roll into the stock as soon as it became apparent that John Chen was heading for the exit with HW. If the HW numbers had come in even worse, and if Chen wasn't so excited about how he could still reach breakeven by September, the stock would have traded higher on earnings day. We will have to wait to see which way this plays out but my thinking is that the stock will move higher in the weeks ahead as either outcome is good for BlackBerry. The key here is the date the bonds can be purchased and retired, as that date approaches Prem and other will have to get off their hands to click the buy button for BBRY shares to stay in the game and avoid an early exit due to not holding enough shares to control a buyout of BlackBerry itself.

I'm bullish on BlackBerry for this very reason, the bond buyback is looming, the stock is very cheap, it is one important decision away from being valued much higher and Chen is positive he can make something work in any case. He has two events that are positive for BBRY and none that I can think of occurring while we approach the bond buyback. Imagine what that (- .03/shr) loss would have looked like minus the bond interest charge, it would have turned positive and stayed positive for the rest of the new Fiscal year! (It doesn't hurt that we now have a 30% growth rate in SW helping things here)

As for Mobile, not for me, they don't have what BB is offering and BB has far greater scale so I would let their CEO squirm until the stock is back down to a more reasonable and desperate sub $ 3.00/shr where it belongs at the end of this year. I do look forward to their next Q and guidance though.

[Corbu]

Anecdotal but so frustrating and so typical, sad to say. Not a word of BBRY/Secusmart...
Expertenbefragung: Welches ist das sicherste Smartphone? | ZDNet.de
"Expert Survey: Which is the most secure smartphone?"

Source:
https://bb10qnx.de/2016/04/zdnet-wel...te-smartphone/

In German.

Let me translate the last paragraph for you:

Do the security researchers (still) know of OS10? Has BlackBerry actually sent OS10 devices to people in those circles? Or at least presented those to them? Even Snowden does not use BlackBerry or BBM Protected. Granted, the latter is unfortunately not widespread.

[Corbu]

Good to read you again, Morgan.

[morganplus8]

Good to read you again, Morgan.

Thanks Corbu !!

You are one of the very reasons why I hang around here so thank you for that. Is there a thread anywhere else that provides us with such "complete" information on one play? I haven't seen one.

I do have a question for TA types, CJ, JLagoon etc., have a look at the BBRY chart, it seems to be making a very interesting move this time around via the 50/200 dma's and our great base at $ 7.00/shr. My contention is that the stock will turn positive and head higher into the bond repurchase program in the Fall. The chart looks good for a nice rally here. Thoughts?

[Corbu]

Thanks Morgan. The feeling is mutual.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Anecdotal but so frustrating and so typical, sad to say. Not a word of BBRY/Secusmart...
Expertenbefragung: Welches ist das sicherste Smartphone? | ZDNet.de
"Expert Survey: Which is the most secure smartphone?"

Source:
https://bb10qnx.de/2016/04/zdnet-wel...te-smartphone/

In German.

Let me translate the last paragraph for you:

I think most of the "security researchers in companies, journalists and employees of privacy organizations." aren't sure what is a viable hardware product for BlackBerry and what is EOL. As for Secusmart it is add on solution that can be used with most hardware out there... so it's not really smartphone hardware in and of it's self... But then the ZDNET article never really talked much about hardware... only device I remember them mentioning was an iPod which isn't even a phone.

But that's the real key of Secusmart.. it' doesn't rely on any one device manufacture. Your company has iPhones and you only want to protect the executive level guys... no problem they can keep their iPhones and IT doesn't have to accommodate some strange device. So going forward Secusmart should bring value to BBRY.

[Corbu]

Dear Health IT Execs: Here?s Why Modernizing Communications is Essential | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[3MIKE]

This looks good!

[bbjdog]

Requirements: Glad to see BBRY trading at $7.25 USD.

Snowden is using the old system of two tin cans and a string. How stupid would Snowden be if he used a cell phone at all. He is using things on the fly. That conclusion smells bias all over it! What a bias thought that Blackberry send them devices! Today i saw a UFO and it sucked me into a room full of beer and I was told to drink it. I really didn't want to drink it, but was forced to do so.

Cheers mate!

Do the security researchers (still) know of OS10? Has BlackBerry actually sent OS10 devices to people in those circles? Or at least presented those to them? Even Snowden does not use BlackBerry or BBM Protected. Granted, the latter is unfortunately not widespread.

[bbjdog]

Thanks Corbu !!

You are one of the very reasons why I hang around here so thank you for that. Is there a thread anywhere else that provides us with such "complete" information on one play? I haven't seen one.

I do have a question for TA types, CJ, JLagoon etc., have a look at the BBRY chart, it seems to be making a very interesting move this time around via the 50/200 dma's and our great base at $ 7.00/shr. My contention is that the stock will turn positive and head higher into the bond repurchase program in the Fall. The chart looks good for a nice rally here. Thoughts?

Agree with you Morgan, but I just don't like the level that the Markets are. Blackberry was late to the party and this might have upside restriction if markets head south. Cheers mate!

[morganplus8]

Agree with you Morgan, but I just don't like the level that the Markets are. Blackberry was late to the party and this might have upside restriction if markets head south. Cheers mate!

I completely agree with you, but I must say, the DOW looks fantastic right now, slightly overbought but it got a huge BUY signal today when the 50 cut up through the 200 dma and that means we should go a bit higher, pause for weeks and regroup for more. This is great time for secondary stocks to start their move now that banks, utilities, transports and materials have bounced back. We are setting up for one of those misses, analysts missed the rally, the media missed the rally, who bought stock when it was ridiculously cheap and who needs to buy now, kind of situation. And so I think we look good for the next 4 months or so.

[DaSchwantz]

Hi _dimi_ !

Sorry about that, I gave credit to Spiller for asking this question when it was you who wondered how we arrive at $ .60 - $ .80/shr in immediate positive earnings, less HW. It is really a case of several things happening here, as many analysts agree, BlackBerry would be approaching 80% gross margins on just SW alone, and of that, a net of 50% to the bottom line with a 30% organic growth rate in place. So $ 527 MM X 1.30% = $ 685.00 and when we multiply that by net margins of 50% we get $ 342 MM or $ 342/515 MM shares or $ .66/shr. So now you can play around with that Net Margin to the bottom line if you want but it doesn't end there. They get tax credits again versus a write-down in assets, they can sell assets related to HW for a considerable amount of cash, and finally, they can reduce that Convertible Bond cost, currently at $ 75 MM to zero by spending 1.04% of the $ 1.25 Billion in debt to retire it completely. You end up with a range of net income from just Software of $ 342 - $ 75 MM in debt or $ .52/shr as is, plus some gain back from asset adjustments, or, you can take it further and include the payment of the debt in that calculation to earn the full $ .66/shr plus asset adjustments. Their cash would drop to $ 1.3 Billion but we now have assets in the form of property and patents worth a pile of money here. And so cash would climb by $ 342 MM each year and they could sell off a turnkey phone business at the same time, complete with all the patents you need to make it functional on a cost basis.

John Chen thinks he can reduce the cost of phones against the bottom line to zero and thus have that gross revenue and his SW income as stated above. He is looking at buying back bonds when they come available in the Fall at 104% of their face value so you can already see what is going on here. He is so sure of his plan that he is spending money on a share buyback to boot. What's all of this worth to BlackBerry? They would have a growth engine in SW, a leader in their sector and a super clean, debt free balance sheet setup for acquisitions.

So that's $ 1.3 B in cash or over $ 2.50 in cash per share, plus massive assets they don't need, plus cash flow and cash growth in software that is superior to software growth of its sector. The P/E ratio for $ .60 - $ .80/shr plus organic growth is at least 20 - 30 X earnings making the stock worth $ 12.00 - $ 18.00/shr/US upon the announcement. And so Prem could see himself breaking even on this play just be dumping HW. The additional gain in the stock comes from Prem wanting to hold more stock as his pivotal ownership of 10% drops dramatically as the bonds are retired. You would see a great deal of money roll into the stock as soon as it became apparent that John Chen was heading for the exit with HW. If the HW numbers had come in even worse, and if Chen wasn't so excited about how he could still reach breakeven by September, the stock would have traded higher on earnings day. We will have to wait to see which way this plays out but my thinking is that the stock will move higher in the weeks ahead as either outcome is good for BlackBerry. The key here is the date the bonds can be purchased and retired, as that date approaches Prem and other will have to get off their hands to click the buy button for BBRY shares to stay in the game and avoid an early exit due to not holding enough shares to control a buyout of BlackBerry itself.

I'm bullish on BlackBerry for this very reason, the bond buyback is looming, the stock is very cheap, it is one important decision away from being valued much higher and Chen is positive he can make something work in any case. He has two events that are positive for BBRY and none that I can think of occurring while we approach the bond buyback. Imagine what that (- .03/shr) loss would have looked like minus the bond interest charge, it would have turned positive and stayed positive for the rest of the new Fiscal year! (It doesn't hurt that we now have a 30% growth rate in SW helping things here)

As for Mobile, not for me, they don't have what BB is offering and BB has far greater scale so I would let their CEO squirm until the stock is back down to a more reasonable and desperate sub $ 3.00/shr where it belongs at the end of this year. I do look forward to their next Q and guidance though.

Nice overview Morgan. .a couple of additional comments / thoughts:

You've outlined a 30% organic growth scenario for software revenue growth, which is reasonable, but note that it includes IP revenues, which is lumpy and less predictable

You didn't account for other near-term cash flows outside of software, but I suspect that was intentional. We also have the legacy SAF net cash flows, and future SR&ED tax credits, so this would go onto the books / bbry share price as well.

Comps will start to look better soon, but only if they can stabilize revenues in the HW division. That's as critical as eliminating losses in HW, because you don't really want to try to sell something that's shrinking AND losing money. Chen seemed to think things were very close, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But ultimately once HW is close to stable on both revs and losses, As a shareholder I personally would prefer them to keep it, because aside from the 'consumer wildcard' factor that everyone seems too focused on, it gives them a complete end to end security approach with enterprise, it helps to leverage opportunities for developing, licensing or selling BlackBerry apps/ software to the Android community (via a test group), there are likely many crossover HW applications in IOT, etc etc. Still it might end up as one of the thinnest hardware operations in the world...basically IP, design, some software, a brand, and an enterprise-focused sales channel.

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

I completely agree with you, but I must say, the DOW looks fantastic right now, slightly overbought but it got a huge BUY signal today when the 50 cut up through the 200 dma and that means we should go a bit higher, pause for weeks and regroup for more. This is great time for secondary stocks to start their move now that banks, utilities, transports and materials have bounced back. We are setting up for one of those misses, analysts missed the rally, the media missed the rally, who bought stock when it was ridiculously cheap and who needs to buy now, kind of situation. And so I think we look good for the next 4 months or so.

Thanks Morgan as always!

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[cjcampbell]

Hola everyone. Looks like we are back and it's a good day as we seem to have come off the base of the $7.05 area. We shouldn't have had to spend the week here but, well, timing of articles and "news" is everything so here we are.

I'll throw up 3 charts. The 3 minute spanning the last 5 days, the 1 day, and the S&P-500 to add to M8's thoughts on buy triggers and a fairly good sign stuff ain't gonna fall apart in the near term.

For BBRY, it, again, skipped along support, tested resistance, skipped along some more, then finally with some volume, pushed through today. It still only closed just above, but I think it'll hold and start the next leg. Of course, I've been wrong more than once so... you know the drill lol.

On the daily, there are a few spots overhead that will give a hard time but nothing major until $7.50 which is when we'll be testing the 200-dma yet again. If we can get there sooner than later, the 50-dma crossover is more likely, and should add a touch of strength to the buying. The RSI is nice and low, the MACD is curling, and baring any bad news, it should simply trade on up.

The S&P was one of those I was following. It's been in a downtrend since last May and it finally broke that last week. It has since then confirmed the break and made the first new higher high which is a major sigh of relief.

[spiller]

Don't you mean it was posted to the, "I support GOOG and I buy shares !" thread? ,

He uses a Classic and that's cool enough, I guess he doesn't want his naked pictures all over the net.

Good to see you here bringing the board back to BBRY, let's hope we can keep one or two trolls away this time!

Spiller had a question a few pages back about BlackBerry valuation as a SW company so I think I'll go see if it is still there! Peace.

OOPS! I now see it was _dimi_ that posed the question regarding BBRY valuation!

I did as well maybe more pages back. If they drop hardware and they maintain a 1.2B software and services revenue (software to equally replace lost SAF over the next couple of years), software vs services margin about the same, net cash after debt, what's fair value?

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

Awesome gentlemen! Thank you for such valuable info/contributions. I've found the above chart on Stocktwits. Could the pattern be relevant - or is it a case of looking for something that isn't there? :-)

Here's a link

http://stocktwits.com/message/53325778

Posted via CB10

[jojo beaconsfield]

BB is toast,all the news about security these days is about Appl,I read like most of us recently about the Mafia and the RCMP,not very good for BB,they just bought a hacking company and where is that going,I guess a lot of IT managers would flip to work with those geniuses ,but first they have to sell BES12 to them,and that's the problem,the stocks Downward trend for the last couple of years tells the story,I think they can come out with a Blockbuster BB10 cell,and what was everyone whining about Leaks for when Chen put a Stop to them a while back not to long ago,surely it wasn't for the Priv,hold on to your hats if I'm right,very tempted to get back in but at an all time low,People like Kia ,I think that's the guy,has had taken many blows from the faithful but seems like BB might just go to $5,you can't ignore the 40% income that HW brings in,with a new innovative phone, no Leaks, we could all be screaming Rich!! :-)

[Hassan00]

I just have a question guys,
Why did BlackBerry took the loan from FairFax when they had and still have enough cash reserve?
They are also paying interest for the money they never used.
So please I just want to know what is the point of this loan?, and BlackBerry still has $1.37 billion!
Another question,
BlackBerry's market cap is around $3.7 billion
Does this really mean the real current value of the company with its all cash reserves?
It is really too low since the company created Candy Crush Saga had a higher value.

[jojo beaconsfield]

I was at an investors luncheon and when asked why they invested $250 million in BB they said they love the coupons, when asked about their investment in BB and where the company was going,they sort of schruged their shoulders and next question please,lol

[world traveler and former ceo]

Hi _dimi_ !

Sorry about that, I gave credit to Spiller for asking this question when it was you who wondered how we arrive at $ .60 - $ .80/shr in immediate positive earnings, less HW. It is really a case of several things happening here, as many analysts agree, BlackBerry would be approaching 80% gross margins on just SW alone, and of that, a net of 50% to the bottom line with a 30% organic growth rate in place. So $ 527 MM X 1.30% = $ 685.00 and when we multiply that by net margins of 50% we get $ 342 MM or $ 342/515 MM shares or $ .66/shr. So now you can play around with that Net Margin to the bottom line if you want but it doesn't end there. They get tax credits again versus a write-down in assets, they can sell assets related to HW for a considerable amount of cash, and finally, they can reduce that Convertible Bond cost, currently at $ 75 MM to zero by spending 1.04% of the $ 1.25 Billion in debt to retire it completely. You end up with a range of net income from just Software of $ 342 - $ 75 MM in debt or $ .52/shr as is, plus some gain back from asset adjustments, or, you can take it further and include the payment of the debt in that calculation to earn the full $ .66/shr plus asset adjustments. Their cash would drop to $ 1.3 Billion but we now have assets in the form of property and patents worth a pile of money here. And so cash would climb by $ 342 MM each year and they could sell off a turnkey phone business at the same time, complete with all the patents you need to make it functional on a cost basis.

John Chen thinks he can reduce the cost of phones against the bottom line to zero and thus have that gross revenue and his SW income as stated above. He is looking at buying back bonds when they come available in the Fall at 104% of their face value so you can already see what is going on here. He is so sure of his plan that he is spending money on a share buyback to boot. What's all of this worth to BlackBerry? They would have a growth engine in SW, a leader in their sector and a super clean, debt free balance sheet setup for acquisitions.

So that's $ 1.3 B in cash or over $ 2.50 in cash per share, plus massive assets they don't need, plus cash flow and cash growth in software that is superior to software growth of its sector. The P/E ratio for $ .60 - $ .80/shr plus organic growth is at least 20 - 30 X earnings making the stock worth $ 12.00 - $ 18.00/shr/US upon the announcement. And so Prem could see himself breaking even on this play just be dumping HW. The additional gain in the stock comes from Prem wanting to hold more stock as his pivotal ownership of 10% drops dramatically as the bonds are retired. You would see a great deal of money roll into the stock as soon as it became apparent that John Chen was heading for the exit with HW. If the HW numbers had come in even worse, and if Chen wasn't so excited about how he could still reach breakeven by September, the stock would have traded higher on earnings day. We will have to wait to see which way this plays out but my thinking is that the stock will move higher in the weeks ahead as either outcome is good for BlackBerry. The key here is the date the bonds can be purchased and retired, as that date approaches Prem and other will have to get off their hands to click the buy button for BBRY shares to stay in the game and avoid an early exit due to not holding enough shares to control a buyout of BlackBerry itself.

I'm bullish on BlackBerry for this very reason, the bond buyback is looming, the stock is very cheap, it is one important decision away from being valued much higher and Chen is positive he can make something work in any case. He has two events that are positive for BBRY and none that I can think of occurring while we approach the bond buyback. Imagine what that (- .03/shr) loss would have looked like minus the bond interest charge, it would have turned positive and stayed positive for the rest of the new Fiscal year! (It doesn't hurt that we now have a 30% growth rate in SW helping things here)

As for Mobile, not for me, they don't have what BB is offering and BB has far greater scale so I would let their CEO squirm until the stock is back down to a more reasonable and desperate sub $ 3.00/shr where it belongs at the end of this year. I do look forward to their next Q and guidance though.

Wow!!! Awesome analysis and made my day (year!) !! Lol... sitting on this train for the long ride up... hopefully, prem and I and other long time bbry investors who are deeply in the red on this company will see this very positive outcome! Thanks for brilliant analysis. I agree!! Chen is the man to make it so... with some good luck. Thanks Morgan!!!

Posted via CB10

[3MIKE]

I was at an investors luncheon and when asked why they invested $250 million in BB they said they love the coupons, when asked about their investment in BB and where the company was going,they sort of schruged their shoulders and next question please,lol

Jojo, you're in the wrong thread!

[CDM76]

I was at an investors luncheon and when asked why they invested $250 million in BB they said they love the coupons, when asked about their investment in BB and where the company was going,they sort of schruged their shoulders and next question please,lol

Interesting. Who was the investment firm ?

Posted via CB10