[spiller]

Hi _dimi_ !!

I always enjoy reading your thoughts on the matter. I'm willing to bet that Chen has no thoughts of leaving hardware in Sept/2016. He is trying to buy time to make his plan work and I do believe that his version of breakeven occurs this year. His version will include a possible go it alone approach away from the reliance on MOST carriers where they seem to fail miserably. I believe ShopBlackBerry, Amazon and other online approaches to selling HW, along with financing, are the eventual outcomes of his strategy. He will look at 500,000 a Q and map out a strategy for mid to high tier phones that are sold at a profit along with a product to take to Enterprise.

I also think that many of us knew that a breakeven number like 5 MM was way out of line and needed to be updated. The media and analysts ran with that figure but you would have to be silly to believe it hadn't dropped on huge ASP gains in Q3. I think he has ways to reduce that number from 3 MM down to 2 MM before the year is out by following my online approach to the sales of phones. If you want a PRIV, a slab or a Classic, you will order it from BlackBerry, or, online for the most part with carriers who want to sell BB's, still carrying them. The ASP would jump high, much lower logistics for moving inventory and therefore a profitable business model at lower volumes. He could even spin off that HW business once he gets to that threshold of breakeven, or, sell the entire suite including patents for a decent price. Do you know how many companies were worth a $ 1 B bucks without a hope of turning a profit? Even our software EMM friends like MOBL and Good sold for high valuations with nothing going for them. The hardware business is profitable at some level as long as they match demand with a distribution system that works.

Look at Apple, what a mess, they are now dropping their base price to $ 399.00 with the same logistics to bring that handset to market. They will die using this formula. You get a phone that you already owned for 3 years, at a much lower ASP for Apple, and, you have to go through the same hurdles to sell that unit to consumers on mass. What a terrible mess they are in. I'm already shopping for my new iPhone 7 and its a 5s for $ 180.00 bucks! This idea is like BlackBerry coming out with a BB 9900. Sure that phone was cool, but times have changed and people are watching TV on their phones, there is zero reason to buy a phone from Apple on launch day, forget the lineups.

If BlackBerry took my advice and launched a separate company setup for a 299..00/Slab, a $ 399.00 PKB and a $ 999.00/high-end secure phone, they wouldn't launch a new one for two years minimum and each phone is profitable at an annual run rate 1,000,000 units, they would make good money. I don't care about Verizon/T-Mob or the rest, only carriers like Bell/Rogers get the phone or only third tier companies like Mobility etc., get the phone on a plan, a system that is simple, easy to inventory and sells without a massive fixed cost to run on BB's part. That works. You decide what lives and what dies, a Passport+?? maybe, a Z30+, a Classic+, a Priv+, you figure out what sells and that's it. I would have 85% of ads run online, little to nothing on TV, lots of launch stuff for online review and that's it. I noticed that no one here talks about BlackBerry direct ads on ABC Nightly News after 6:00 PM for the Priv. It was a great short mention of the Priv but no one here even mentioned it so dump the effort!

As for tax relief, we got $ 17 MM this Q for the restructuring but I'm afraid there is nothing for HW until they lose money on the blowout of inventory. It doesn't happen up front on a launch. Let's get all of the HW available around the world from one source, say Amazon and a couple of working solutions with carriers and the like. Then when you finally hit a home-run you can crank up the volume at your pace with new contracts going to carriers that matter.

Remember, Samsung and Apple can't play this game, they would go under.

PS. A special thanks to those of you who worked late last night rebutting the silly season arguments for why BlackBerry sucks, I grabbed a beer and didn't watch men's figure skating because your work was that good. Imagine how many iPhone users had nothing to distract them from skating last night ............

Can blackberry sell enough 'bundled Priv with EMM/MDM license' direct to enterprise at 300-350 per device.... to break even? After M drops in May...6 months to find out. I agree .... drop the Priv price for amazon/direct purchases but you'd have to think the carrier contracts for the Priv prevent them from doing that without substantial penalties...

Posted via CB10

[Klipspringers Shoes]

Apple are a mess...BlackBerry shouldn't bother with much more than online advertising and shouldn't worry about carriers...folks, April Fool's was yesterday.

WhatsApp leaving BB10 isn't necessarily a bad thing at all...could be a good thing, but unless BlackBerry wake up and learn how to sell phones, their OS is going to have no app and be in an even bigger mess. Goodness me: these theories are something else.

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

Apple are a mess...BlackBerry shouldn't bother with much more than online advertising and shouldn't worry about carriers...folks, April Fool's was yesterday.

WhatsApp leaving BB10 isn't necessarily a bad thing at all...could be a good thing, but unless BlackBerry wake up and learn how to sell phones, their OS is going to have no app and be in an even bigger mess. Goodness me: these theories are something else.

Posted via CB10

WhatsApp leaving BlackBerry 10 is the worst thing that could have happened to BlackBerry. As much as we all like BBM, WhatsApp is king and without that, you can't expect people to purchase a BB10 device.

The PRIV, however, is a device people are actually interested in. Let it be known, the BB10 platform is very underrated IMO, but without the most basic apps, it's a very hard sell.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[bbjdog]

Apple are a mess...BlackBerry shouldn't bother with much more than online advertising and shouldn't worry about carriers...folks, April Fool's was yesterday.

WhatsApp leaving BB10 isn't necessarily a bad thing at all...could be a good thing, but unless BlackBerry wake up and learn how to sell phones, their OS is going to have no app and be in an even bigger mess. Goodness me: these theories are something else.

Posted via CB10

Thanks for the good insight and the wisdom that came from it. As you probably know I'm the Monkey guy on this thread. In exchange for good information I give away bananas. Sorry to say, you don't qualify for any bananas.

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[Klipspringers Shoes]

WhatsApp leaving BlackBerry 10 is the worst thing that could have happened to BlackBerry. As much as we all like BBM, WhatsApp is king and without that, you can't expect people to purchase a BB10 device.

The PRIV, however, is a device people are actually interested in. Let it be known, the BB10 platform is very underrated IMO, but without the most basic apps, it's a very hard sell.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

Well, yes, it is pretty horrible, but now our Apple and Android friends 'have to' download BBM in order to talk to us, so....there's that.

Speaking of BBM, what on earth does Chen expect to happen to it when he officially flushes BlackBerry phones down the toilet? BBM is going to get utterly wiped out without BlackBerry devices. Hooray for the age of Truckberry.com when we can come in on our iPhones and get excited about shipping movements. (That was sarcasm.)

Posted via CB10

[Andy_bb_king]

Hi Folks,

Allow me to jump in to say a few words.

We all realize now our wish for SP go higher has been a little ahead of time. But I still believe that day will come but just a bit longer.
I realize to make a successful business is hard and it takes time, not to say turnaround a business.
I think JC's approach is still not gamble on the device business by spending big on marketing. Because if it still can't sell big chunks of phones, it will go bankruptcy. He wouldn't do that. JC is going to make software and services big enough to replace lost revenue on SAF. When that day comes which I think it will be next year, he will then spend the big free cash flow on marketing phones, also by then BlackBerry Android phones will get mature. If it still doesn't work, a solid software base still support the company to march ahead. One great example is Amazon, once selling books business get big free cash flow, it works on other business like selling all goods, and once that business goes bigger it opens other businesses like AWS. Even some of the trials failed like Fire phones, it can still go along because its core business still goes strong.

At this stage, BlackBerry still need a core business to generate big free cash flow. That is the software and services business. I really like this approach because it is safe and has best chance to succeed. So for those who wish JC spend big money on marketing, please be patient. Now is not the time. Maybe later when BlackBerry has a solid software business as base.

We all should have a calmer head. When you spread FUD, it doesn't mean you are trolls. Based on some people's negative comments, you are not trolls, you are just unsatisfied share holders like all of us. But I think it is meaningless to make too negative comments.

End of my rants for now.


Posted from my trusted Passport

[app_Developer]

So if iPhone SE looks like a 5S then we can assume (1) they are the same phone inside and (2) the next flagship 7 will also be exactly the same phone. CrackBerry competitive analysis at its finest.

I really doubt Chen has the emotional attachment to phones that people here do. I do think he's learned enough about the industry by now to understand when he needs to move on. I guess we'll see come September.

Does anyone know how many phones the ShopBlackBerry site sells today?

[BanffMoose]

If BlackBerry took my advice and launched a separate company setup for a 299..00/Slab, a $ 399.00 PKB and a $ 999.00/high-end secure phone, they wouldn't launch a new one for two years minimum and each phone is profitable at an annual run rate 1,000,000 units, they would make good money.

My add-on to your advice, if you would: split OS development into several layered branches that can be customized/refined for joe consumer, to those with EMM needs, to whoever needs that US DoD security to whoever needs that NIAP certification that's holding up the 10.3.3 rollout.

BlackBerry does security development correctly, from the lowest level of the kernel, to hardware, to the user interface. However, they only have a one-size-fits-all phone OS that focuses first on the customer that needs the highest level of security. They're at the point where they should reverse that focus.

Leave the current 10.3 branch for governments and military and start working on v11 for consumers.

They secured the kernel and hardware and QNX is supposedly "modular" so securing the modules that control the various hardware should be done or mostly done. So take 10.3.3 or even 10.3.2 and start updating the critical frameworks used in BB10 to whatever version is the most current (like Qt, Cascades and whatever game frameworks they had in BB10). Get BB10 updated and modern again to 2017 standards.

Make the consumer version capable of the bleeding edge and the test bed for technologies their corporate/government/military want. That's what consumers want. Take that version and add the EMM features. Corporations have longer refresh cycles so a delay for EMM features should be tolerable. Take the EMM version and further secure that for DoD and Government. Take that version and add/seek out the NIAP certification. Take the security enhancements achieved in the older version and add them to the next generation of the consumer version and start the security certification process over.

The point being, the consumer market dwarfs the tightest-of-tight security market. That market shouldn't have to pay upfront (in time waiting or monetary cost) for all that added security either. Those that need the extra layers of manageability/security tend to have longer refresh cycles and security certifications take time. They can wait and pay more for their devices/OS licensing fee and for the development of the security they want. In the end, all of BlackBerry's customers can subsidize each other for the added security that BlacKBerry provides.

Addendum: Yeah, I get that it may be too late for BB10. Hopefully carrier data-only plans will open an avenue for BlackBerry and other companies to offer devices with more OS choices without carriers being able to choose winners and losers. In the end, mobile devices are becoming computers with microphones, speakers and cameras anyway. No reason that BlackBerry can't do this assuming they get their software house in order.

[morganplus8]

So if iPhone SE looks like a 5S then we can assume (1) they are the same phone inside and (2) the next flagship 7 will also be exactly the same phone. CrackBerry competitive analysis at its finest.

I really doubt Chen has the emotional attachment to phones that people here do. I do think he's learned enough about the industry by now to understand when he needs to move on. I guess we'll see come September.

Does anyone know how many phones the ShopBlackBerry site sells today?

The one thing that all iPhone owners have in common is that they have no clue what's under the hood in their phone. But they will line up for hours to say they own the latest version. Of course you know that. Now of course you are going to tell me you met someone once who claimed to know what processor was in their iPhone, yeah right.

Heck, they don't know that they have the oldest, bloated OS in the world today. Now, they are assured that the same bloated software is accessible by some kid named "Timmy", who, when he is not playing X-Box likes to break iOS encryption for the Feds. So that's no security, ancient OS, everyone gets to see your daughter's pictures, and now, you won't be able to distinguish a quad jump from a triple jump when the men's free skate is on. I know, in your world, tiny houses, tiny cars and now tiny iPhones are the rage, let's hope the colour of the phone makes up for the lack of vision here. I'm glad you ifanboys support old Apple stuff but that doesn't mean that BlackBerry fans need another BB 9900. Apple could never keep up with leading edge technology in the past, that was Samsung's and others job, today it appears they still have a mountain of old 5S shells laying around for the iPhone 7. Let's see how big that lineup will be when it launches.

[markmall]

Andy_bb_king, if Chen does not believe that they can sell smartphones he should recommend to the board of directors that they wind down the company.

It was neither logical nor fair to the shareholders that he did not use the cash on hand to try to make the business work. This meant paying for at least a minimal marketing campaign for OS10 and then later the Priv. (It seems that maybe he spent more on the Priv, but it was still a pathetic marketing effort.) BBRY has the best OS in the world, but no one knows about it.

Trying to fish around for startups that might have a viable software business is not why I or other people invested in Blackberry. Refusing to invest in marketing is unfair to shareholders. I would not be surprised if the company is sued for this cowardly course of action.

[_dimi_]

Had to laugh out loud to Morgan's reply....! Does he have weak spot for figure skating like he does for Maroon5?!

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

https://slack.com/is

Competition for the Hub, Blend, BBM and Watchdox... and valued at 4 billion dollars.

Posted via CB10

[Klipspringers Shoes]

It really is reality check time for all of us BlackBerry supporters. We can't keep moving the goalposts around or grouping together and bending them into pretzels. It's perfectly possible to both support BlackBerry and think their CEO is a gormless pelican. Good luck to everyone who has a significant amount of money invested in this, and I hope no one has invested more than they can afford to lose.

Is it, and has it, been a good idea to put HW on ice for two years until 'the time is right'? I say it hasn't been, and that it has led to a near-lethal erosion of BlackBerry 10 user base, no growth whatsoever in the OS or BBM, and left BlackBerry as a company extremely vulnerable. I'm sure that will be called FUD or trolling or whatever else, but anyone who says that isn't a serious person or a serious investor.

I'm really concerned Chen has pushed things so close to the brink, has painted BlackBerry into such a tight corner, that it will be nearly impossible to save things unless something totally unexpected happens, such as an end to apps. Sure they will happen eventually, but by September? By the new year?

Let's try to be rational everyone. I say that unless Chen accepts the principle that advertising increases sales, and that it is not a waste of money but an absolute necessity for making money, he is going to continue to drive us into the ditch. This isn't a reason for calling me names or banning uncomfortable opinions. It's an hypothesis that can be observed and tested over time, using evidence.

Let's see what happens. I hope Chen shocks us with a Passport II and one other device in the fall and that he has the sense right now to cut the price drastically on all BlackBerry 10 devices and make a serious push to increase USER BASE. That's what matters. That's why we've lost Facebook and Whatsapp, and haven't gained traction at all over the last three years. There is a huge mountain to climb, but if something is actually done to start moving in a positive direction, it may not be too late. It wasn't too late two year ago, and it isn't too late now, if Chen pulls his thumb out. But he won't.

Posted via CB10

[anon(8865116)]

It really is reality check time for all of us BlackBerry supporters. We can't keep moving the goalposts around or grouping together and bending them into pretzels. It's perfectly possible to both support BlackBerry and think their CEO is a gormless pelican. Good luck to everyone who has a significant amount of money invested in this, and I hope no one has invested more than they can afford to lose.

Is it, and has it, been a good idea to put HW on ice for two years until 'the time is right'? I say it hasn't been, and that it has led to a near-lethal erosion of BlackBerry 10 user base, no growth whatsoever in the OS or BBM, and left BlackBerry as a company extremely vulnerable. I'm sure that will be called FUD or trolling or whatever else, but anyone who says that isn't a serious person or a serious investor.

I'm really concerned Chen has pushed things so close to the brink, has painted BlackBerry into such a tight corner, that it will be nearly impossible to save things unless something totally unexpected happens, such as an end to apps. Sure they will happen eventually, but by September? By the new year?

Let's try to be rational everyone. I say that unless Chen accepts the principle that advertising increases sales, and that it is not a waste of money but an absolute necessity for making money, he is going to continue to drive us into the ditch. This isn't a reason for calling me names or banning uncomfortable opinions. It's an hypothesis that can be observed and tested over time, using evidence.

Let's see what happens. I hope Chen shocks us with a Passport II and one other device in the fall and that he has the sense right now to cut the price drastically on all BlackBerry 10 devices and make a serious push to increase USER BASE. That's what matters. That's why we've lost Facebook and Whatsapp, and haven't gained traction at all over the last three years. There is a huge mountain to climb, but if something is actually done to start moving in a positive direction, it may not be too late. It wasn't too late two year ago, and it isn't too late now, if Chen pulls his thumb out. But he won't.

Posted via CB10

I don't think his future plans really revolve around handsets. it's just so close to being profitable that it's hard to just throw away completely but that's why you see mediocre support in terms of marketing and pricing.

Im sure the conversations with the board resulted in the same opinion. Keep the business open but only if it doesn't lose tons of money. Since the operating costs have been significantly cut it is more of a meh now on the balance sheet as opposed to a holy **** we are gonna go bankrupt. Looking back on my initial investment though, I think my reasoning is still right (software based turn around when Chen joined, but the numbers haven't panned out as fast as I hoped. I had a target of 1.25 b software rev but that still seems like 2 years away. The easiest way to get there would be by acquisitions but there goes the cash pile. Hoping their new consultant arm and IOT offering significantly contribute to rev going forward.

[app_Developer]

The one thing that all iPhone owners have in common is that they have no clue what's under the hood in their phone. But they will line up for hours to say they own the latest version. Of course you know that. Now of course you are going to tell me you met someone once who claimed to know what processor was in their iPhone, yeah right.

Heck, they don't know that they have the oldest, bloated OS in the world today. Now, they are assured that the same bloated software is accessible by some kid named "Timmy", who, when he is not playing X-Box likes to break iOS encryption for the Feds. So that's no security, ancient OS, everyone gets to see your daughter's pictures, and now, you won't be able to distinguish a quad jump from a triple jump when the men's free skate is on. I know, in your world, tiny houses, tiny cars and now tiny iPhones are the rage, let's hope the colour of the phone makes up for the lack of vision here. I'm glad you ifanboys support old Apple stuff but that doesn't mean that BlackBerry fans need another BB 9900. Apple could never keep up with leading edge technology in the past, that was Samsung's and others job, today it appears they still have a mountain of old 5S shells laying around for the iPhone 7. Let's see how big that lineup will be when it launches.

I have no idea what Apple or Apple employees did to you. Maybe a conversation for some other thread. For the record, I think of phones like I do cars. I enjoy them, and I enjoy them from all the different companies. If I was blindly loyal to one particular car manufacturer, I'd have missed out on some awesome experiences in that hobby, just as in this one.

I've never worked in Cupertino, and have no loyalty to them. I just think we can discuss BBRY and still have an accurate and well informed discussion about BBRY's competitors, if AAPL is in fact even a competitor at this point.

Let's just agree on a bet? (Virtual of course). I will bet that the iPhone 7 will not share the 5/SE form factor. We can come back in September and see who was right on that one and acknowledge it fairly. Deal?

[bbjdog]

Did anyone watch Coco solo performance last night? If you missed it, here are some images of her. LOL

[_dimi_]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned JC's comment to retire some of their debt.. (Bloomberg interview). I had hoped to see more buybacks, but if paying back the bond holders achieves the same result... then why not

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

I don't think his future plans really revolve around handsets. it's just so close to being profitable that it's hard to just throw away completely but that's why you see mediocre support in terms of marketing and pricing.

Im sure the conversations with the board resulted in the same opinion. Keep the business open but only if it doesn't lose tons of money. Since the operating costs have been significantly cut it is more of a meh now on the balance sheet as opposed to a holy **** we are gonna go bankrupt. Looking back on my initial investment though, I think my reasoning is still right (software based turn around when Chen joined, but the numbers haven't panned out as fast as I hoped. I had a target of 1.25 b software rev but that still seems like 2 years away. The easiest way to get there would be by acquisitions but there goes the cash pile. Hoping their new consultant arm and IOT offering significantly contribute to rev going forward.

You expected a 1.25 b software business for FY2017? Up 250% y/y from FY2016? If you include SAF, they should get to your 1.25 b target. Excluded, way too ambitious, but perhaps for FY2019?!

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Did anyone watch Coco solo performance last night? If you missed it, here are some images of her. LOL

I bet Coco is an iphone guy.

Posted Via blackberry passport.

[world traveler and former ceo]

http://amigobulls.com/articles/black...ndset-division

BlackBerry needs to fix it's revenue problems...... Chen had guided prior quarter that revenues had stabilized... but HW did not fall in line with his expectations... delay in verizon?.. higher than anticipated Competition at that price point?... carriers? ... only he really knows ; otherwise SF / Services was solid... an additional $100m to the top line really would have made a big impact....

HW guidance was horrible. He is extremely competent and a seasoned pro... but the problem is daunting...

And with no new products imminent, it (HW) will just trend lower, imo....

I would like to see every effort made ASAP to find a strategic partner for this business...September may be too late... imo

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned JC's comment to retire some of their debt.. (Bloomberg interview). I had hoped to see more buybacks, but if paying back the bond holders achieves the same result... then why not

Good point Dimi. At 5:59, FTR.

[bbjdog]

I bet Coco is an iphone guy.

Sorry Sidhuk, I know how disappointed you are, but Coco likes to keep her private pictures private and not in the cloud.

[pbfan]

Paying back bond holder is a better idea especially when BBRY needs to focus on organic growth after having so many acquisitions.

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned JC's comment to retire some of their debt.. (Bloomberg interview). I had hoped to see more buybacks, but if paying back the bond holders achieves the same result... then why not

Posted via CB10

[early2bed]

I'm really concerned Chen has pushed things so close to the brink, has painted BlackBerry into such a tight corner, that it will be nearly impossible to save things unless something totally unexpected happens, such as an end to apps. Sure they will happen eventually, but by September? By the new year?

I think JC knew that hardware was a losing proposition from day one. That's why he cancelled every single hardware project except for the Passport which was too far along. He made his first new smartphone a retread "Classic" and set his hardware chief on a mission to replace BB10 with someone else's OS. Now that the hardware program is a drag on the stock price and investor/analyst sentiment, he is throwing out a drop dead date of September so that investors now assume that it will happen. At most, he says that he thinks they have a shot at profitability. He has no strategy as far as the carriers are concerned. Direct sales are simply a way of avoiding the high costs of marketing these devices. It's been a low-risk low-return hardware strategy.

[bungaboy]

If I had a nickel for every time that Chen indicated he was getting out of hardware . . . I'd have a quarter!